At 16:50 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.004, up $0.063 or +2.14%.

Will Seasonal Weather Patterns Support the Bulls?

Weather forecasts offer mixed signals for demand. NatGasWeather expects high pressure to dominate much of the U.S. this week, keeping highs in the 80s and 90s across the interior and Southwest. These conditions will boost cooling demand in the short term, though national demand is forecast to ease significantly over the weekend as northern states cool into the 60s and 70s.

This pattern translates to moderate demand early in the week, tapering off to light demand by the weekend — a setup that could cap rallies unless weather-driven demand persists longer than expected.

Is Surging Production Offsetting Demand Gains?

Supply remains a limiting factor for bullish sentiment. U.S. dry gas production continues to hover near 107 Bcf/d, keeping upward pressure on storage and tempering the impact of late-season heat.

The latest EIA storage report showed a 71 Bcf injection for the week ending September 5, bringing total inventories to 3,343 Bcf. While stocks remain 38 Bcf below last year, they sit 188 Bcf above the five-year average — a bearish overhang that looms over any short-term rallies unless demand materially exceeds expectations.

What’s the Near-Term Setup for Natural Gas Futures?

The short-term setup leans neutral-to-bearish with risks skewed lower if bulls fail to retake the $3.147 moving average. The defense of $2.887 was a critical hold, but without strong follow-through — particularly if weekend demand proves weak — prices could slip back toward $2.695.