The market appears to be moving lockstep with crude oil prices. Early in the session on Wednesday, the IEA announced a record oil reserve release that failed to put expected pressure on oil and prices firmed. Natural gas followed a similar pattern before reversing to the upside.

Late Wednesday, the U.S. announced it would release oil from its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), yet crude oil rallied even higher after the news. The U.S. release is expected to take 120 days, which is too long for crude oil traders apparently. Natural gas edged higher on the move.

Weather Takes a Back Seat

Analysts at NatGasWeather are focusing on the 15-day weather forecast which says we could see a jump in national demand over the next six days, then strong days 7-9. However, warm temperatures are expected to return March 20-24.

Nonetheless, weather and production are not the catalysts underpinning the market. These traditional fundamentals are battling an escalation in European prices and new Middle East attacks from Iran on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and Israel.

Strait of Hormuz Still Blocked

Conditions could continue to get complicated in the Middle East. It looks as if they are escalating even though President Trump suggested on Monday that the end of the war is near. Furthermore, we’ve seen little progress in the attempts to open the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S. Navy. That promise was made late last week, but it looks like it can’t be delivered if Iran has laid mines in the water.

EIA Storage Report

Looking ahead to Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report, traders are pricing in a decline of about 41 Bcf. That will be smaller than the 5-year average of -64 Bcf.