Targets Exceeded and Next Objectives

The advance blew past the minor $4.54 target and cleared the 161.8% ABCD projection, while breaking decisively above the 150% extension of the original rising channel. The next channel line at the 175% extension is now the clear focal point, together with the 200% ABCD projection at $4.82.

Proximity to March High

Current price sits only 7% below the March $4.90 spike—a level reached in a single session and closed at the low—suggesting potentially light supply on any retest and raising the odds of a challenge or exceedance of the 2025 high before correction arrives.

Failed August Breakdown Context

The August breakdown below the long-term rising channel quickly failed, producing instead the current sharp rally. False breakouts classically lead to strong moves in the opposite direction, providing additional backing for a possible run at $4.90. This remains a possibility only – new price action will confirm or invalidate it.

Downside Support Framework

Initial dynamic support lies at the sharply rising 10-day average, currently $4.24. Former resistance near $4.15 offers the next reaction zone, with the 20-day average at $3.75 as the deeper target on any 10-day failure.

Overbought Warning Signs

The steep slope of the 10-day average and overbought RSI highlight an extended market that is undeniably due for a correction, even as momentum remains robust for now.

Outlook

Natural gas stays in control of the bulls, with the 150% channel breakout and clearance of the 161.8% ABCD pointing toward $4.82 and the 175% line. Light historical resistance near $4.90 and the prior failed channel breakdown keep the 2025 high very much in play. Any pullback should be contained by $4.24–$4.15 support; sustained trade above $4.58 preserves full upside initiative.