Resistance Zone Overcome

The advance decisively broke through a potential resistance zone from $3.92 to $3.93, consisting of a 127.2% rising ABCD pattern target and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. This clearance removes a significant hurdle and puts natural gas in position to challenge prior resistance at the June swing high. Exceeding this level would trigger a bullish signal, breaking a swing high from the downtrend structure and confirming a shift in momentum.

Support Structure

Key near-term support is today’s $3.79 low. The $3.92-$3.93 range, now former resistance, can also be monitored for signs of flipping to support. Since there was minimal pushback at that zone, a confirmed bull breakout could solidify it as a new floor. Wednesday’s $3.75 low provides another short-term support level if tested, offering buyers a chance to defend.

Long-Term Bull Trend

Natural gas is showing clear signs of resuming the long-term bull trend that began from 2024’s low. The long-term uptrend line was recently recovered, along with a downtrend line. Prices now trade above the 200-day average after remaining below it since early August, reinforcing underlying demand and structural improvement.

Upside Targets

Clearing the 127.2% ABCD target opens the 161.8% extended Fibonacci target at $4.21 — the higher potential target for the current advance from August’s low. This would require surpassing the June swing high. A strong weekly close would further solidify the bullish posture, though a pullback remains possible before reaching $4.21.

Outlook

The $3.79 close is critical — above it targets the June high, below risks $3.75. The 200-day average marks maximum downside if support fails. Today’s strength favors continuation — watch the June high for reversal confirmation. Pullbacks may offer entry opportunities if trendlines and the 200-day hold firm.

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