Four Straight Weeks of Lower Highs and Lows

Friday’s bounce has not changed the bigger picture. Natural gas will log a fourth consecutive week of lower weekly highs and lows, highlighting persistent selling pressure. A bearish continuation signal triggered this week as prices fell through the April swing low. That decline also pierced a long-term support zone where an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) from the 2024 trend low converged with a long-term uptrend line. This line formed the lower boundary of an ascending parallel trend channel, giving the breakdown added significance.

Bearish Targets Remain in Play

Support near the AVWAP level at $2.96 held for several weeks but failed to produce a meaningful rally. With the breakdown confirmed, downside targets remain intact. Below this week’s trend low of $2.764, the next potential target sits at $2.79, completing a 100% projection of a falling ABCD pattern. This would match the size of the second downswing to the first. If weakness extends further, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54 becomes the next major level to watch, and given the strength of recent bearish signals, this deeper target is possible.

Resistance Zone Capped by 20-Day MA

The 20-Day moving average is accelerating lower and is close to crossing beneath the long-term uptrend line. At $3.04, it marks the top of a potential resistance zone starting at the AVWAP line near $2.96. Resistance was seen today at the bottom of that $2.96–$3.04 band and it may serve as a key pivot area where sellers could reassert control, keeping the prevailing downtrend intact. Also, the top of the range would be a upside target for now if today’s bullish price action can continue in the short-term.

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