HSBC has sharply raised its Brent crude price forecast for 2026, lifting its outlook from $80 to $90 per barrel as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz drags on with no resolution in sight. The bank’s senior oil analyst, Kim Fustier, said global oil markets are unlikely to find balance again until the middle of 2027, a timeline that points to months of tight supply and elevated prices ahead.

Key takeaways

• HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $80 to $90 per barrel and its 2027 outlook from $65 to $85 per barrel.
• Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to about 6 million barrels per day, roughly 30% of pre-conflict levels.
• A US-Iran memorandum meant to stabilize transit through the strait collapsed in July 2026.
• According to HSBC’s projections, flows are set to climb gradually, reaching 8 million bpd by the close of 2026 before hitting 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027.
• Brent could spike to $120 per barrel if diplomatic efforts keep failing, before easing sometime in 2027.

HSBC Revises Brent Crude Price Forecast Amid Strait of Hormuz Crisis

HSBC’s revision marks one of the clearest signals yet that major banks now view the Hormuz disruption as a lasting feature of the oil market rather than a passing shock. The bank’s updated Brent crude price forecast reflects a market where supply constraints are expected to persist well into next year, not just through the current quarter.

2026 and 2027 Price Outlook Increases

The 2026 forecast climbed from $80 to $90 per barrel, but the more striking move came further out. HSBC also raised its 2027 Brent outlook to $85 per barrel, up sharply from a prior $65 estimate. That’s a $20 jump for a year in which, in calmer conditions, analysts might have expected prices to have already normalized. Looking further ahead, HSBC’s assumption for 2028 and beyond sits at $75 per barrel, suggesting the bank sees some cooling off eventually, but not a full return to the sub-$70 environment that prevailed before the crisis began.

Current Elevated Brent Prices Reflect Structural Supply Stress

Brent crude prices have climbed past $100 per barrel lately amid intensifying shipping attacks in the region, yet HSBC’s updated figures—though lower than current spot prices—reflect the bank’s outlook for where prices will land once the initial panic subsides. That distinction matters: a forecast below the current trading price isn’t a bet on relief so much as a signal that HSBC views today’s premium as partly driven by short-term volatility on top of a genuinely tighter underlying supply picture.

Impact of Strait of Hormuz Crisis on Global Oil Supply

The Strait of Hormuz oil crisis is the reason behind HSBC’s entire recalibration. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption, and its disruption has rewritten supply assumptions across the industry.

Supply Disruption and Diplomatic Setbacks

Oil flows through the strait have stabilized at around 6 million barrels per day, about 30% of pre-conflict levels, according to HSBC’s analysis. That collapse followed a failed diplomatic push: a US-Iran memorandum of understanding designed to stabilize transit through the strait fell apart in July 2026, removing the market’s main hope for a quick fix. Fustier’s note comes in the direct aftermath of that failure, and it explains why HSBC is no longer treating the disruption as temporary.

Why it matters: a fifth of global oil consumption depends on a waterway that is currently operating at less than a third of its normal throughput. Any further deterioration in the diplomatic relationship between Washington and Tehran could keep that bottleneck in place for far longer than markets initially priced in.

Projected Oil Flow Recovery Timeline

HSBC does still see a path back toward normal, just a slow one. By mid-2027, the bank projects flows will climb to 9.5 million bpd, following a gradual rise to 8 million bpd by the end of 2026. Even under that relatively optimistic trajectory, transit volumes would remain well below historical norms for more than a year, which is exactly why the bank pushed its 2027 forecast up so aggressively.

Potential Market Scenarios and Price Volatility Risks

HSBC’s global oil supply disruption scenario isn’t the only possible outcome, and the bank has laid out what happens if diplomacy keeps failing instead of stabilizing.

Price Spike Risks if Diplomatic Failures Persist

In a stalemate scenario, where negotiations keep collapsing and transit volumes stay depressed, Fustier’s analysis points to Brent surging as high as $120 per barrel before moderating sometime in 2027. That figure underscores how sensitive this market remains to political developments in the Gulf: a single failed round of talks, as seen in July 2026, was enough to force a $10 upward revision in the 2026 forecast alone.

Longer-Term Price Normalization Expectations

Beyond the immediate volatility, HSBC’s broader HSBC oil price outlook assumes the market eventually settles into a new, somewhat higher normal. The bank’s 2028-and-beyond assumption of $75 per barrel implies that even a resolved Hormuz crisis would leave a lasting mark on pricing, since rebuilding shipping confidence and restoring full transit volumes tends to take longer than the initial disruption itself. Until flows return closer to their pre-conflict baseline, oil markets are unlikely to rebalance, and HSBC’s own timeline for that puts the turning point around the middle of 2027.

FAQ

Why did HSBC raise its Brent crude price forecast for 2026?

HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast because the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, causing prolonged disruptions to global oil supply.

How much has oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz dropped?

Oil flows through the strait have dropped to around 6 million barrels per day, about 30% of the volume seen before the conflict began.

What is the outlook for oil flow recovery through the Strait of Hormuz?

HSBC expects oil flows to gradually recover to 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026 and 9.5 million barrels per day by mid-2027.

What could happen if diplomatic efforts to stabilize oil transit continue to fail?

If diplomatic efforts keep failing, HSBC’s analysis suggests Brent crude prices could spike to $120 per barrel before moderating sometime in 2027.

Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders.

Gold continues to trade in a short-term downtrend.

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

• USCrude: Oil faced resistance at the Target Zone 2 of 94.49–93.68.
• XAUUSD: Gold maintains a bearish bias.
• EURUSD: The euro is rising and is attempting to break above the 1.1642 level.

Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis

Yesterday, the oil price continued to rise, reaching the Target Zone 2 of 94.49–93.68. Today, the price tried to break through this zone, but bears defended it. If the asset remains below the Target Zone 2, a correction may start.

Should a correction develop, the price may fall to the support zone A of 90.65–90.22. Once this zone is tested, consider long trades, with the first target at 92.61 and the second one around 95.01.

USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:

Buy near support A of 90.65–90.22. TakeProfit: 92.61, 95.01. StopLoss: 89.07.

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Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis

Gold extends its short-term downtrend. The price is trading below resistance B of 4,451–4,436. Earlier this week, the asset reached the first bearish target of 4,367. The second target is at 4,282. Consequently, consider holding short trades or opening new ones today.

A breakout above 4,464 will invalidate the bearish scenario. In that case, the short-term trend will turn bullish, and one may consider long trades, targeting the upper Target Zone of 4,621–4,590.

XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Hold part of the short trades opened at resistance B of 4,451–4,436. TakeProfit: 4,282. StopLoss: at breakeven.

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Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis

The euro is attempting to continue its short-term uptrend. The second bullish target is at 1.1711. Therefore, consider holding some of the long trades opened earlier near support B of 1.1585–1.1572.

If the EURUSD pair declines and settles below support B, the trend may turn bearish. In this case, consider short trades the next trading day, with a target in the lower Target Zone of 1.1459–1.1434.

EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Hold part of the long trades opened at support B of 1.1585–1.1572. TakeProfit: 1.1711. StopLoss: at breakeven.

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Would you like to learn more about technical analysis methods and principles? Explore our comprehensive guide.

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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

 

Platinum price succeeded in surpassing $1835.00 level yesterday, reaching the initial target by hitting $1926.00 level, despite the positive factors, we confirm the stability of the trading above $1900.00 to reinforce the chances of resuming the bullish trend and targeting new positive targets by reaching $1958.00 initially, followed by $2060.00, which represents the next main target in the medium trading.

 

While the price failure to settle above $1900.00 might force it to activate the corrective attempts, to expect reaching the 55-level moving average near $1790.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1850.00 and $1958.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the weakness of the last trading of EURJPY pair’s price and forming weak sideways fluctuation by its stability near 178.50, it will not affect the main bearish scenario due to its stability below 180.80 barrier.

 

Providing negative momentum continuously by the main indicators will increase the chances of attacking 177.80 barrier, as surpassing it will open the way for reaching extra negative stations that are represented by 177.35 and 176.70 level. 

 

The expected trading range for today is between 177.35 and 179.40

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

 

 

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel on Wednesday, breaching the symbolic barrier for the first time since July 24, as intensifying conflict in the Middle East fuelled growing concerns about oil flows from the region.

Brent crude futures rose $2.15, or 2.2%, to $100.07 a barrel by 0721 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.70, or 1.83%, at $94.73 a barrel.

Brent has risen by a quarter since early last month as hopes fade for a permanent resolution to the six-month-old conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would continue targeting Iranian oil tankers in response to attempted attacks on U.S. warships. “Iran continues to try to hit U.S. naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they’re going to lose tankers,” Rubio told reporters during a visit to Colombia.

U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday that its forces had destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers on September 8 following attempted missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship over the previous two days.

Jordan’s air-defence systems intercepted 18 of the 20 ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory, while the other two fell in unpopulated areas, according to the country’s state news agency, which cited the military. No casualties were reported.

Where are prices headed?

Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could reach as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East intensify, with the renewed hostilities raising concerns about disruptions to crude supplies.Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview with Bloomberg that recent developments indicated that the risk of wider and more severe shipping disruptions had become an important concern.

Struyven said Goldman Sachs sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices”, while also suggesting that investors position for higher natural gas and refined product prices. He said the supply shocks in gas and fuels are larger than those in the crude market.

The duration of the disruption will be critical for the oil market. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption lasts three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.

Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, pointing to a longer-than-expected timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

ANZ analysts have also increased their short-term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel and warned that prices could rise further if the Middle East conflict escalates. They said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by the U.S. and Iran appeared to be the most likely scenario, potentially delaying the return of full Middle East supply.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)