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– Written by
Tim Boyer
STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar Slides on Hopes for US-Iran Peace Deal
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher on Thursday, as improving risk appetite helped lift the pairing.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3622, up roughly 0.2% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) weakened on Thursday as a firmer risk tone reduced demand for the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.
Markets were buoyed by hopes of a possible US-Iran peace agreement, after US President Donald Trump suggested a deal to end the conflict was ‘very possible’ following negotiations over the previous 24 hours.
The prospect of easing tensions in the Middle East lifted global equities and encouraged investors away from safer assets.
This left the US Dollar under pressure through Thursday’s trade, with risk-sensitive currencies advancing as the ‘Greenback’ faced broad-based selling.
The Pound (GBP) strengthened against the US Dollar on Thursday, as its increasingly risk-sensitive nature left it well placed to benefit from the brighter market mood.
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However, Sterling’s gains were limited by caution ahead of the UK local election results.
Labour is widely expected to suffer setbacks, with investors watching closely to see the scale of the losses. A sharper-than-forecast defeat could intensify pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, especially after some Labour MPs have already called for him to resign.
As a result, the Pound’s upside was capped, with improved risk appetite partly offset by fears that the elections could trigger renewed political uncertainty in the UK.
Looking ahead, the UK local election results are likely to take centre stage for Pound investors on Friday.
Sterling may find support if Labour’s losses prove relatively contained, as this could calm concerns over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.
However, a heavier defeat could revive speculation over a possible leadership challenge. If the results heighten fears of political instability in the UK, rising bond yields may add further pressure to the Pound.
At the same time, USD investors will be focused on the latest non-farm payrolls report. Economists expect US jobs growth to have slowed in April, which could strengthen bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year and drag on the ‘Greenback’.
Risk sentiment may also remain a key driver for the US Dollar. Should the market mood stay upbeat, the safe-haven ‘Greenback’ could struggle to regain ground.
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
Silver (XAG/USD) trims part of its earlier gains on Thursday as geopolitical headlines from the Middle East continue to stir volatility across financial markets. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $79.62 after easing from a three-week high near $82.00 touched earlier in the American session, though the metal remains up nearly 3% on the day.
Iran has imposed new rules for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNN, in an attempt to tighten control over shipping movements through the waterway, which handles 20% of global Oil flows.
Persistent tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns and supporting hawkish central bank expectations, which in turn continue to cap upside attempts in Silver.
However, renewed hopes that the US and Iran could reach a deal to end the war in the Middle East support the metal in the near term, while technical indicators also remain constructive.
In the daily chart, XAG/USD holds above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Bollinger middle band at $76.32, keeping the near‑term bias constructive while it grinds toward the upper Bollinger band, now capping the upside around $81.43. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 57 sits in positive territory without being overbought, suggesting buyers retain control, while the subdued Average Directional Index (14) near 12.76 hints that the prevailing uptrend lacks strong directional conviction for now.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger band at $81.43; a daily close above this barrier would open the door for a more impulsive extension of the bull leg. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day SMA Bollinger middle band at $76.32, with a deeper pullback likely finding additional protection near the lower Bollinger band around $71.21 as long as the broader bullish structure remains intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.09% | 0.17% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.28% | -0.17% | -0.22% | -0.16% | -0.26% | -0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.16% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.26% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
USD/JPY is moving higher as traders shrug off intervention risks and focus on higher yields in the U.S. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed back towards the 3.90% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.37%.
If USD/JPY settles above the 156.00 level, it will head towards the key resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50. Yesterday, BoJ defended the 158.00 level and briefly pushed USD/JPY towards 155.00.
However, the yen is fundamentally weak, and traders are ready to use pullbacks as an opportunity to buy USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan cannot intervene on a daily basis as the yen would lose the status of a free-floating currency. USD/JPY bulls bet that BoJ will be forced to move away from the forex market after several unsuccessful attempts to defend the yen.
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The EURJPY pair reached %23.6 Fibonacci correction level at 182.00, to form strong support to provide chances for recovering some losses by its rally near 183.70 level.
In general, the bearish scenario will remain valid depending on forming main barrier by 185.45 level against the current trading, which makes us wait for gathering negative momentum, which allows it to renew the negative attempts that might target 182.80 level, to attempt to renew the pressure on 182.00 support, while breaching the main barrier and holding above it will confirm its move to a positive station, to begin targeting several positive stations by its rally towards 186.00 and 186.60.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.80 and 184.30
Trend forecast: Bearish
The US dollar has pulled back slightly against the Canadian dollar, but it still looks like it is in a basing pattern, and it is trying to find a reason to go higher. If we do drop from here, the 1.36 level might be short-term support, and the 1.3550 level most certainly is; it has proven itself multiple times. Pay attention to those US rates. If they turn around, that probably continues the bounce here.
Platinum price managed to settle above the moving average 55, confirming the attempt of activating the bullish trend again, to hit $2075.00 level, approaching the previously suggested initial main target.
Surpassing $2080.00 level, to open the way for resuming the bullish trend, to reach $2120.00, to extend the trading towards the next main target near $2190.00, note that the rise of changing the trend and forming bearish waves depends on breaking the support level at $1865.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $2020.00 and $2120.00
Trend forecast: Bullish
The EURJPY pair reached %23.6 Fibonacci correction level at 182.00, to form strong support to provide chances for recovering some losses by its rally near 183.70 level.
In general, the bearish scenario will remain valid depending on forming main barrier by 185.45 level against the current trading, which makes us wait for gathering negative momentum, which allows it to renew the negative attempts that might target 182.80 level, to attempt to renew the pressure on 182.00 support, while breaching the main barrier and holding above it will confirm its move to a positive station, to begin targeting several positive stations by its rally towards 186.00 and 186.60.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.80 and 184.30
Trend forecast: Bearish
Domestic coffee prices today
The domestic coffee market this morning, May 7, witnessed an impressive breakthrough session in the Central Highlands provinces.
According to the latest data, the average purchase price of the whole region has increased by 1,000 VND/kg, officially exceeding the threshold of 87,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices increased the most with 1,100 VND, reaching 87,300 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both recorded an increase of 1,000 VND, currently trading stably at 87,000 VND/kg.
The Lam Dong area alone listed the price at 86,500 VND/kg after recovering by 1,000 VND compared to yesterday’s session. Meanwhile, pepper prices remained stable at 143,000 VND/kg and the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank decreased slightly by 10 VND to 26,088 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
Developments in the international market last night recorded mixed differentiation between the two futures exchanges.
The London exchange became the main driver for domestic coffee prices when Robusta futures in July surged by another 35 USD (equivalent to 1.04%), reaching 3,413 USD/ton.
Conversely, the New York exchange sank into red when Arabica prices fell sharply by 5.90 cents (equivalent to 2.04%), falling to 283.85 cents/lb. Arabica’s decline stems from optimistic signals about the possibility of ending the US-Iran conflict, which opens up expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will soon be cleared again, helping to relieve global logistics pressure.
Coffee price assessment
Despite cooling geopolitical news, factors tightening supply in reality are still a solid pillar for coffee prices. Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange fell to a record low of 16.25 months (only 3,755 lots), while Arabica inventories also hit a 2.5-month low.
In addition, Brazil’s Real continued to maintain its strength at its highest level in 2.25 years against the USD, causing Brazilian farmers to limit export sales due to unfavorable exchange rate differences. These factors compensated for the pressure from the Vietnam’s export report in the first 4 months of the year increasing sharply by 15.8% (reaching 810,000 tons) and the forecast of a global surplus of 10 million sacks of StoneX.
The market is currently in an extremely sensitive phase when “good news” about geopolitics is “bad news” for prices due to reduced insurance and transportation costs. However, with stockpiles on the London exchange running out, Robusta’s upward momentum still has considerable room in the short term.
The GBP/USD pair trades 0.18% higher around 1.3620 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Cable reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure amid the optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a peace deal soon.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.28% | -0.45% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.02% | 0.17% | 0.14% | -0.12% | -0.29% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.14% | -0.11% | -0.28% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.03% | -0.27% | -0.49% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.14% | 0.03% | -0.24% | -0.42% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.28% | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.27% | 0.24% | -0.17% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.45% | 0.29% | 0.28% | 0.49% | 0.42% | 0.17% | 0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.08% | -0.16% | -0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.1% to near 97.90.
Market sentiment is risk-on, following reports from Al-Hadath, sister channel to Al Arabiya, that intense communications between the US and Iran are ongoing to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. S&P 500 futures are marginally higher at around 7,370, indicating a higher appetite for riskier assets.
Going forward, the major trigger for Cable will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the central bank will hold interest rates at their current levels by the year-end.
GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3620 as of writing. The pair retains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3518. The pair is also trading just over the 61.8% retracement at 1.3600, turning that level into immediate underlying demand, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.4 sits in positive territory, suggesting sustained upward momentum rather than overbought excess.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent pivot area around 1.3600, with the 20-period EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement clustered near 1.3520, reinforcing a deeper floor ahead of 1.3434 and 1.3331. On the topside, further gains face first resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3719, with a break there exposing the cycle high region at 1.3870 as the next resistance hurdle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected at 11:47 GMT to say in the third paragraph that S&P 500 futures are marginally higher at around 7,370, and not 7,7370.)
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Gold is trading in a bullish correction within the short-term downtrend.
The article covers the following subjects:
Oil’s short-term trend turned bearish yesterday. The price broke below the key support of 99.24–98.43 and reached the lower Target Zone of 91.15–89.53. After that, major market participants started closing their short trades, causing an upward correction.
During the correction, the oil price tested the resistance A of 92.82–92.28, but bears managed to keep the asset below this zone. Today, the price may continue to fall. Consequently, consider short trades with the first target at 89.85 and the second one around 86.89.
Sell near resistance A of 92.82–92.28. TakeProfit: 89.85, 86.89. StopLoss: 94.70.
Gold is trading in a correction within a short-term downtrend. Yesterday, the price pierced resistance A at 4,656–4,642 and reached resistance B at 4,734–4,713, the upper boundary of the trend. Consider short trades near this zone, with the first target at 4,617 and the second one at 4,500.
If the gold price breaks above resistance B, the downtrend will reverse. In this case, consider long trades, with the target in the upper Target Zone of 4,968–4,925.
Sell near resistance B of 4,734–4,713. TakeProfit: 4,617, 4,500. StopLoss: 4,788.
The euro extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. Bulls managed to hold the support B of 1.1687–1.1670, and the price reached the first upside target of 1.1760. If the price breaks above this level, the next upside target will be at 1.1849. Should the asset rise even higher, it may climb to the Target Zone 2 of 1.1972–1.1950.
If the euro price settles below the support B, the trend will shift to a downtrend. In this case, consider short trades, with the target in the lower Target Zone of 1.1525–1.1492.
Watch the market.
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