• The Natural Gas market has fallen a bit during the trading session here on Tuesday as the 50-day EMA continues to be a massive barrier.

• If we do break above there, then we could send this market towards the $3 level, but all things being equal, I think it takes quite a bit of momentum to make that happen.

With that being the case, I believe that most traders will be looking at the Natural gas as a market that you continue to sell anytime you get an opportunity. After all, this is what is known as shoulder season and that of course is the time of year where traders price in the idea of a huge lack of demand. After all, nobody’s really that worried about heating their homes or anything like that.

Seasonal Factors and Demand Outlook

So, with that being the case, it is a market that will continue to look at each rally as a potential shorting opportunity with the $3 level being a massive ceiling. If we can break above there, then it’s possible that we could go looking at the $3.30 level, but I think something pretty spectacular would have to happen. In fact, we’ve already seen some pushbacks during the day on Tuesday.

I believe that this market could go looking to the $2.60 region, but it’s going to be a grind. Higher interest rates are an effect on most markets, but here in Natural Gas I don’t think so just because there’s so much of it.

With that, anytime this market rallies at the first signs of exhaustion I’m more than willing to start selling. It’s just not a market that lends itself to being very strong anytime soon. With that, I still believe that the $3 level is your ceiling and it’s probably not for a few months where we see air conditioning demand come into the picture that we see Natural Gas rise.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

Ethereum (ETHUSD) rose in recent intraday trading after holding firmly above the important support level at $2,265, which provided positive momentum and helped the price recover part of its previous losses. At the same time, the market is attempting to unwind oversold conditions shown on the relative strength indicators, despite emerging positive signals.

However, the broader outlook remains pressured, as the price continues to trade below EMA50, limiting the strength and sustainability of any recovery in the near term. This is further reinforced by the breakdown of a short-term ascending trend line, which adds to the negative technical outlook.

The GBPJPY pair continued delaying the negative corrective attempts due to the positive momentum that comes from the main indicators, which forces it to form some bullish waves, approaching near 214.50.

The price might continue providing mixed trading, however the stability below the previously mentioned barrier will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective trend, to expect targeting 213.30 level, attempting to reach 211.80, while surpassing the barrier and holding above it will support the chances of forming strong bullish waves, to target 215.25 and 216.05.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.80 and 214.50

Trend forecast: Bearish

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning – May 12, 2026 – witnessed a spectacular “comeback” after a series of volatile trading days. According to records in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the price of raw coffee beans has simultaneously rebounded sharply, convincingly regaining the mark of 88,000 VND/kg.

In the Dak Nong (old) area, coffee prices recorded an increase of 1,100 VND, pushing the purchase price to the highest level in the region of 88,200 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both had an increase of 1,000 VND, currently trading stably at the mark of 88,000 VND/kg.

Lam Dong region recorded the strongest increase with 1,200 VND, bringing coffee prices to 87,500 VND/kg. Coupled with this upward momentum, the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank continued to increase by 6 VND, currently listed at 26,099 VND/USD, creating more favorable momentum for export activities.

World coffee prices

Developments on futures exchanges last night were also brilliantly green as inventory bottomed out, triggering a massive buying wave. On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for July surged by 90 USD (equivalent to 2.64%), reaching 3,504 USD/ton, officially setting a 2-week high.

At the same pace, the New York exchange witnessed the price of Arabica for July delivery increase by 7.50 cents (equivalent to 2.73%), closing at 282.30 cents/lb. The fact that both exchanges broke through above 2.5% shows that excitement is covering the global market in the face of short-term supply shortages.

The core reason for this increase came from inventory data monitored by the ICE floor falling to a record low. Robusta inventory as of Monday was only 3,687 lots left, the lowest level in nearly 17 months, while Arabica inventory is also anchored at a 2.5-month low.

In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are still a “nozzle” for prices as the Hormuz Strait continues to be blockaded. The disruption of this vital sea route not only pushes up freight rates and insurance premiums but also causes fertilizer and fuel prices to escalate, directly putting pressure on the cost of goods sold by international roasters.

In addition, although Brazil forecasts the next crop very well, actual exports in March decreased sharply from 10% to 31%, showing that the actual supply to the market is currently being significantly tightened.

However, experts still issue warnings about the “ghost” of surplus in the long term. Reputable organizations such as StoneX and Marex still maintain forecasts for a global surplus of up to 10 million bags for 2026 when Brazil officially enters a record harvest season with an expected output of 75.9 million bags. Vietnam’s strong export growth in the first 4 months of the year (up 15.8% to 810,000 tons) is also a factor hindering the overheated increase.