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– Written by
David Woodsmith
STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling Surges vs Dollar after US Inflation Miss
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate advanced strongly on Tuesday after softer US inflation figures prompted investors to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3416, up approximately 0.5% from the opening levels of Tuesday’s session.
The US Dollar (USD) came under broad selling pressure on Tuesday following the publication of the latest US consumer price index, which indicated price pressures eased by more than markets had anticipated in June.
Headline inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.5% year-on-year, beating expectations for a more modest decline to 3.8%. Core inflation also surprised to the downside, with the annual rate easing to 2.6%.
The weaker inflation print prompted investors to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy, with market pricing for a September Federal Reserve interest rate increase falling from roughly 70% to around 50%.
The Pound (GBP) also attracted buyers on Tuesday as investors continued to anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) may yet be forced to tighten monetary policy again.
Those expectations have been reinforced by the latest surge in global energy prices. Renewed conflict in the Gulf has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling concerns over higher import costs and the potential for another inflationary shock that could keep pressure on the BoE to raise borrowing costs before the end of 2026.
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However, Sterling’s advance was capped by measured remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee, Bailey warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East present significant risks to financial stability, while also highlighting that weak domestic growth continues to weigh on the UK’s economic outlook.
Looking to the midweek session, attention will turn to the publication of the latest US producer price index, which is expected to provide the next major catalyst for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.
If producer price inflation also points to easing price pressures, investors may further unwind expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, potentially placing renewed pressure on the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the Pound may struggle to establish a clear direction on Wednesday as the UK economic calendar remains quiet ahead of Thursday’s closely watched GDP release.
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Copper price suffered new positive pressures due to the continuation of forming extra support by moving average 55 stability near $5.9500, besides stochastic rally to 80 level, forcing it to delay the previously waited corrective attempts by its rally towards $6.2850, approaching the initial barrier.
The continuation of the positive pressure might push it to surpass the current barrier, to record some gains by its rally towards $6.3800 and $6.4500, while the failure of the breach will force it to provide mixed trading with a new chance to target $6.1000 level, reaching the mentioned support to find an exit for activating the corrective trend again.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.1500 and $6.3800
Trend forecast: Bullish
The USD/JPY pair remains on the back foot through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Intervention risks support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for spot prices amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, remain close to a four-decade high, touched earlier this month, as traders await US consumer inflation figures and Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Kevin Warsh’s inaugural congressional testimony.
In the meantime, the persistently wide interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies, including the US, continues to undermine the JPY amid economic concerns stemming from the Middle East crisis. Furthermore, escalating US-Iran tensions and firming Fed hike expectations, amid renewed inflation fears due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, help limit the USD losses and warrant some caution before placing bearish bets on the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices remain confined between two converging trend lines, forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Against the backdrop of a strong rally from the May monthly swing low, the said triangle might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase before the next leg up. Furthermore, a corrective pullback earlier this month showed resilience below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators are relatively muted. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 52, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is fractionally positive near the zero line, hinting at a cautious upside tone rather than an impulsive rally. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a breakout through the triangle resistance, near 162.55-162.60, before positioning for any further appreciation for the USD/JPY pair.
On the downside, the latest close at 162.10-162.00 forms initial intraday support, ahead of the rising trend-line floor at 161.60 and the 200-period EMA clustered near 161.15. A convincing break and acceptance below the latter would be needed to signal a deeper corrective phase in the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests that the uptrend is still intact despite the latest consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.45% | -0.35% | -0.83% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.03% | 0.04% | -0.29% | -0.18% | -0.66% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.07% | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.63% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.31% | -0.23% | -0.71% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.45% | 0.29% | 0.24% | 0.31% | 0.09% | -0.38% | 0.17% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.18% | 0.13% | 0.23% | -0.09% | -0.48% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.83% | 0.66% | 0.63% | 0.71% | 0.38% | 0.48% | 0.56% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.16% | -0.17% | -0.10% | -0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Platinum price kept providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $1605.00 level, affected by the contradiction of the main indicators, obstructing the attempts of activating the suggested negative trend.
The price needs a new negative momentum, which allow it to reach $1510.00 support, while breaking it will confirm its move to a new negative station, to target $1440.00 level, reaching $1310.00, while holding above this support might provide a chance for recording some gains by target $1690.00 level, reaching the barrier near $1785.00
The expected trading range for today is between $1555.00 and $1680.00
Trend forecast: Fluctuating
The British pound rose against the Japanese yen again on Monday, as we continue to see the ‘carry trade’ play out.
The British pound has risen during the early part of the trading session on Monday as we are starting to see the Japanese yen soften a bit. That makes a certain amount of sense, considering the interest rate differential between the two currencies and, of course, the fact that the Bank of Japan is essentially stuck while the Bank of England is still offering much higher rates and likely to be a little bit more stubborn.
You can see that we have seen such a nice, strong uptrend since 2020, and nothing has changed here. I think we still have a buy on the dips scenario as we have a longer-term destruction of the Japanese yen ahead of us. I’m playing all the yen-related pairs with small positions. I’m not trying to jump in with both feet because you get paid at the end of every day, and you can take advantage of the overall interest rate differential, gradually padding your account. It’s the simple carry trade.
The 215 yen level is an area that has been important in the past, so it could offer a bit of support if we are driven down to that area. It’s worth noting that the 50-day EMA is in that same region as well, offering a potential support level for technical traders, also.
To the upside, the next large round psychologically significant figure is the 220 yen level. Overall, this is a market that I think, given enough time, probably has to determine whether or not we are still going to short the yen. And I think looking around the markets, it will be a pretty obvious scenario one way or the other because, quite frankly, the yen-related pairs all tend to move most of the time in the same direction. So, one way traders can take advantage of that is to look around the world and sort out which ones are doing what and whether or not we continue to see that same pattern play out.
Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
Domestic coffee prices today
Coffee prices today in the domestic market slightly decreased in key production areas. The average price was recorded at 96,000 VND/kg, down 200 VND/kg compared to the previous update.
In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 200 VND/kg, down to 96,000 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices also decreased by 200 VND/kg, to 96,000 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong, coffee prices today reached 95,500 VND/kg, down 200 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.
The old Dak Nong area recorded the highest purchase price, reaching 96.100 VND/kg, down 200 VND/kg compared to the previous update.
Despite a slight decrease, the domestic coffee price level still remains high, significantly higher than the area below 93,000 VND/kg recorded in the first sessions of July.
The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,040 VND/USD, down 10 VND.
World coffee prices
World coffee prices simultaneously decreased in the update table on July 14. Both Robusta on the London exchange and Arabica on the New York exchange recorded red in many terms.
On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 18 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.47%, to 3,834 USD/ton.
During the session, this contract at one point reached 3,907 USD/ton but then narrowed down, sometimes falling back to 3.769 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 8,367 lots.
Robusta for November 2026 delivery fell 23 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.60%, to 3.796 USD/ton.
The January and March 2027 terms decreased by 24 USD/ton and 22 USD/ton respectively, to 3,766 USD/ton and 3,736 USD/ton.
The July 2026 Robusta contract stood at 3,854 USD/ton, down 38 USD/ton. However, this term has low trading volume because it is close to maturity, so the September contract reflects the market trend more clearly.
On the New York exchange, Arabica also decreased in terms. September 2026 Arabica futures fell 4.25 US cents/lb, or 1.27%, to 330.00 US cents/lb.
Arabica December 2026 futures fell 4.95 US cents/lb, or 1.57%, to 311.05 US cents/lb.
The March and May 2027 terms decreased by 4.90 US cents/lb and 4.70 US cents/lb respectively, to 304.75 US cents/lb and 302.80 US cents/lb.
The July 2026 Arabica contract reached 341.40 US cents/lb, down 1.60 US cents/lb. However, this term has lower trading volume than long-term contracts because it is close to maturity.
Coffee price assessment
Domestic coffee prices slightly decreased after strong fluctuations, while world prices continued to adjust. This development shows that the market is still under pressure after the hot increase in early July.
However, the domestic price level is still maintained in the high zone. The fact that the price is still around 96,000 VND/kg shows that the market has not returned to the previous low zone, especially when weather, inventory and supply factors are still closely monitored.
From a global supply-demand perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that the average ICO aggregate price index for May 2026 reached 256.05 US cents/lb, down 3.8% compared to the previous month, in the context of market reaction to improved supply prospects.
For Brazil, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) quoted a forecast from the Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) as saying that Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year may reach 66.7 million bags, an increase of 18% compared to 2025. The prospect of a large crop in Brazil is a factor that could put pressure on Arabica prices in the medium term.
Rabobank of the Netherlands also assessed that Arabica is under stronger pressure due to expectations of increased supply associated with the 2026-2027 Brazilian coffee crop. In the Brazilian coffee market update, Rabobank said that Arabica prices fell more sharply than Conilon, reflecting concerns about improved supply.
Platinum price kept providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $1605.00 level, affected by the contradiction of the main indicators, obstructing the attempts of activating the suggested negative trend.
The price needs a new negative momentum, which allow it to reach $1510.00 support, while breaking it will confirm its move to a new negative station, to target $1440.00 level, reaching $1310.00, while holding above this support might provide a chance for recording some gains by target $1690.00 level, reaching the barrier near $1785.00
The expected trading range for today is between $1555.00 and $1680.00
Trend forecast: Fluctuating
7
UK Stock Market Forecast Today (July 13): The UK stock market is forecast to open lower today, July 13, 2026, pressured by a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions. FTSE 100 stock futures are falling in pre-market trading after heavy missile and drone strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend caused global market anxiety and pushed Brent crude oil prices near $80 a barrel.
Major Indices: Previous Performance and Today’s Outlook
On the previous trading session, major UK indices posted modest gains, buoyed by heavy corporate M&A activity which offset severe weakness in the pharmaceutical sector.
UK Stock Market Forecast Today (July 13): FTSE 100 Previous Market Performance
The FTSE 100 is projected to open moderately lower today, Monday, July 13, 2026, as escalating Middle East tensions push Brent crude oil prices toward $80–$91 a barrel, creating pressure on global sentiment. Despite a minor 0.24% recovery in the final session of last week, the UK benchmark faces an uphill battle to regain the 10,500 threshold due to persistent pharmaceutical sector drag and macroeconomic headwinds.
The FTSE 100 recorded a volatile 1.8% cumulative decline last week, with a sharp single-day selloff on Wednesday triggered by geopolitical tensions and corporate-related setbacks.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10, 2026 | 10,471.94 | 10,513.90 | 10,462.75 | 10,497.29 | +0.24% |
| July 09, 2026 | 10,487.89 | 10,539.47 | 10,397.48 | 10,472.45 | -0.16% |
| July 08, 2026 | 10,666.09 | 10,666.09 | 10,467.01 | 10,489.04 | -1.66% |
| July 07, 2026 | 10,651.30 | 10,747.01 | 10,651.17 | 10,665.88 | +0.13% |
| July 06, 2026 | 10,679.38 | 10,733.39 | 10,618.43 | 10,651.77 | -0.26% |
The FTSE 250 is expected to trade cautiously today, maintaining a defensive posture after recent sessions saw the mid-cap index hover in the 23,300–23,400 range. Sentiment remains tightly tethered to shifting global interest rate expectations, supply concerns in energy markets, and brewing geopolitical tensions
The UK stock market is likely to trade cautiously today, with the FTSE 100 hovering around the 10,497-point mark after recording a modest gain of 0.24%. Investors remain focused on the impact of rising US-Iran geopolitical tensions, which have pushed global crude oil prices sharply higher.
Although strength in the energy sector is providing support to London’s heavyweight commodity stocks, broader risk aversion is limiting market upside and keeping mid-cap indices such as the FTSE 250 under pressure.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice; investors should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile this week as traders continue to monitor developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and upcoming U.S. inventory data.
If military tensions escalate further or any disruption to shipping routes in the Gulf is confirmed, crude oil could extend its rally. A sustained move above $80 would likely attract additional momentum buying, increasing the probability of WTI testing $82–85 in the coming sessions. Falling U.S. crude inventories would provide another supportive catalyst.
If geopolitical headlines stabilize without further escalation, WTI may consolidate between $77 and $80 as traders digest the recent surge. Markets would then shift their focus to macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve expectations, and global demand indicators.
The main downside risk is a de-escalation in Middle East tensions or signs that oil exports remain largely unaffected. In addition, concerns about global oversupply and potential production increases from major producers could limit further gains. Under this scenario, WTI could retreat toward the $75–76 support zone before finding fresh buying interest.
Overall, the short-term bias remains bullish, but price action is likely to stay headline-driven. Geopolitical developments will continue to dominate sentiment, making crude oil one of the most volatile assets in global markets this week.
WTI Weekly Forecast: $77.00–85.00
Bullish target: $82.50–85.00
Base case: $77.00–80.00
Bearish risk: $75.00–76.00
For active traders, the $80 level remains the most important resistance to watch. A confirmed breakout could signal the start of another bullish leg, while failure to hold above $77.50 may trigger a short-term correction before the next directional move.
– Written by
David Woodsmith
STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Safe-Haven Demand Supports Dollar amid US-Iran Conflict
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped at the beginning of Monday’s session as renewed fighting in the Middle East encouraged demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), although Sterling later recovered part of its initial decline.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3388 after rebounding from an overnight low of $1.3369.
The US Dollar edged higher at the start of the week after fresh hostilities erupted in the Middle East.
While the fighting eased temporarily on Friday, tensions reignited over the weekend when Iran attacked a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US answered with strikes on Iranian targets, triggering retaliatory attacks by Tehran against US-backed Gulf states.
Growing concern that the conflict could intensify has weakened expectations that the two sides will be able to reach a durable peace agreement.
The cautious tone at the start of Monday’s session provided support for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, the ‘Greenback’ was unable to maintain its early advance as broader risk appetite proved more resilient than initially expected.
The Pound (GBP) lacked clear momentum on Monday as a quiet UK economic calendar left Sterling without a strong catalyst.
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Even so, the currency avoided heavier losses against the US Dollar, with confidence in the UK’s political outlook continuing to provide support. Investors remained optimistic that the lengthy period of political uncertainty that has pressured the Pound was starting to ease.
As a result, GBP recovered a portion of its earlier losses against USD.
Looking ahead, the US Dollar could come under pressure on Tuesday when the latest US consumer price index is released.
Economists expect inflation to have eased from 4.2% in May to 3.8% in June. A reading in line with forecasts may reduce support for USD.
That said, developments in the Middle East are also expected to influence price action. If geopolitical tensions remain elevated, the safe-haven appeal of the ‘Greenback’ could strengthen.
Meanwhile, GBP investors will be watching a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.
Bailey has continued to strike a cautious tone in recent weeks, arguing that policymakers should assess inflation carefully before adjusting interest rates. However, with renewed US-Iran tensions driving energy prices higher, Sterling could find support if his comments reinforce expectations that UK monetary policy will remain restrictive.
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts