Created on November 25, 2025

• The Euro continues to struggle with holding gains as repeated rallies fade and volatility persists.
• Holiday-thinned trading and overhead resistance keep the bias pointed lower, with key levels suggesting further downside unless major shifts occur.

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday, but as we’ve seen multiple days in a row, the Euro just can’t seem to hang on to significant gains. And I do think that the US dollar is likely to continue to be a situation of fading the rally as we go forward.

Holiday Conditions

All things being equal, this is a market that I think we continue to see a lot of choppy and volatile moves in, but mainly on short-term charts. After all, this is a week that I think is going to be difficult for a lot of traders, as we have the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States on Thursday.

So that basically takes the Americans out of the equation for Thursday and Friday. So, unless we see some type of major shift, and let’s be honest, we could do due to headlines coming out of Ukraine or trade tensions or whatever. I think this is a market that you just continue to face short-term rallies, you collect your profits, and then rinse and repeat. The 50-day EMA above offers significant resistance near the 1.16 level. And of course, we have a downtrend line that’s just above there that could come into the picture to offer resistance as well.

I think at this point in time, we are likely to see a potential move down to the 1.14 level, which is a large round, psychologically significant figure in an area that has shown extreme demand previously. If we drop below there, then not only will the break of demand be bearish, but you would also see a breakdown below the 200-day EMA as very bearish also. I think at that point, the euro goes to the 1.11 level. It’s not until we break above the 1.17 level that I start to look in the other direction. So, I remain bearish at least for the time being.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.