For beginners, this suggests large players may be distributing SOL into rallies, a behaviour that often appears near market tops and supports the broader bearish outlook.

Additionally, SOL is trading below the realised price of recent buyers (3–6 months and 6–12 months), meaning many newer holders are now underwater. Historically, this zone often triggers capitulation or forced selling as confidence weakens.

The next cost basis zone, ruled by SOL traders holding the tokens for 2-5 years, was around $45, aligning with the technical bottoms discussed above.

Class-Action Lawsuit Adds Legal Overhang to Solana’s 2026 Outlook

Legal risk has emerged as an additional fundamental headwind for Solana heading into 2026.

A US federal court has allowed plaintiffs to expand a class-action lawsuit tied to activity on Solana-based token-launch platforms, most notably Pump.fun.

The amended claims now draw in Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, and key ecosystem participants, alleging insider advantages, market manipulation, and unfair token distribution practices.

While the case does not represent a ruling on guilt, its expansion increases regulatory and reputational risk for the ecosystem.

Historically, prolonged litigation has weighed on crypto assets by dampening retail sentiment, slowing institutional engagement, and raising compliance concerns for exchanges and custodians.

Even without an adverse final judgment, the lawsuit introduces uncertainty at a time when markets are already risk-averse.

For investors, this legal overhang may act as a sentiment drag during rallies, reinforcing broader bearish and consolidation scenarios for SOL until a clearer legal resolution emerges.

Solana Roadmap 2026

In 2026, Solana’s roadmap centres on Firedancer production rollout, deeper validator decentralisation, and performance scaling for institutional-grade usage.

The focus shifts toward reliability at scale, predictable fees, and tooling for payments, DeFi, and consumer apps, aiming to support real-world adoption through a full market cycle.