• The EUR/USD outlook shows steady Eurozone consumer inflation expectations. 

• Consumers expect Eurozone inflation to average 2.6% in the next year. 

• The preliminary US GDP revealed a 3.3% expansion, bigger than the forecast of 3.1%.

The EUR/USD outlook shows the euro recovering after an ECB survey revealed steady consumer inflation expectations. However, the currency pulled back in the previous session after upbeat US data briefly boosted the dollar. 

An ECB survey revealed that consumers expect Eurozone inflation to average 2.6% in the next year. This was unchanged from the June expectations. Moreover, it means that the European Central Bank can maintain the interest rates at 2.0%. Therefore, traders do not expect a rate cut in September. 

Meanwhile, the dollar got some relief in the previous session after data revealed solid economic growth. The preliminary GDP revealed a 3.3% expansion, bigger than the forecast of 3.1%. The data eased some recent concerns about the state of the economy. It also eased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Additionally, unemployment claims fell more than expected, easing worries about a rapid slowdown in the labor market.

Nevertheless, the greenback is heading for a monthly loss against the euro due to an increase in Fed rate cut expectations. Traders are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report next week that will continue to shape the outlook for rate cuts.

EUR/USD key events today

• US core PCE price index m/m

EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears attempt again at range resistance

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. However, on a larger scale, the price trades in a consolidation between the 1.1600 support and the 1.1700 resistance levels. 

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Initially, the trend turned bullish after meeting the 1.1400 support level. However, it soon started a corrective phase after bulls failed to break above the 1.1700 key resistance level. Since then, they have made several attempts to break out of the consolidation but have failed. At the same time, the RSI has made lower highs, indicating fading bullish momentum. 

If bulls regain strength, the price might finally break out of consolidation and continue the uptrend. On the other hand, if they don’t, bears might take over and retest the 1.1400 support level.

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Platinum price recorded some of yesterday’s gains by hitting $1362.00 level, but its neediness for positive momentum pushed it to decline below $1355.00 barrier, to reach $1342.00, to face the moving average 55.

The contradiction between the main indicators might force the price to provide intraday mixed trading, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum to confirm breaching the barrier and reaching the positive targets near $1383.00 and $1398.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1340.00 and $1383.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on August 29, 2025

• Thursday has seen a bit of bullish pressure for the British pound against the US dollar, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
• Ultimately, this is a market that I think is still very much in the throes of consolidation.
• This is despite the fact that we did bounce ever so slightly over the last couple of days. In fact, you can even make an argument that there is a bit of a “double bottom” at the 1.34 level below, but at this point I think it has more to do with a simple lack of momentum.

Technical Analysis

Speaking of the 1.34 level, this is an area that I think a lot of people would be looking at as a potential support level going forward, as it has proven itself to be important multiple times, going back several months. It’s also worth noting that the 50 Day EMA sits between here and there, so I think there is a lot of support just waiting to jump into the market.

However, the 1.36 level above is a significant amount of resistance, an area where we have seen selling pressure previously. If the market were to reach that area, I’d be watching to see if there are signs of exhaustion that I can start shorting. Quite frankly, I think that we are on the precipice of something kind of big as far as the global economy is concerned, and if that does in fact change for a more negative tone, the US dollar becomes much more attractive to currency traders as a form of safety.

Time of Year

Keep in mind that the time of year is typically low volume, so simply sitting in this area makes quite a bit of sense. At this point, if we can break out of this range opens up the possibility of the 200 pip move. If we break above the 1.36 level, it could move the market to the 1.38 level. If we break down below the 1.34 level, then we could drop down to the 1.32 level. The 200 Day EMA is closer to the 1.32 level, so that of course could offer a significant amount of support.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling at $1.351 as Dollar Loses Ground

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate traded mostly flat on Thursday as the US published its latest GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2025.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3505, virtually unchanged from the start of Thursday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) lost ground on Thursday, slipping against several major peers despite the release of stronger-than-expected US data.

The second-quarter GDP showed the American economy rebounded more sharply than forecast, accelerating from -0.5% to 3.3%, surpassing expectations for a 3.1% rise.

Ordinarily, such robust growth figures would have bolstered the ‘Greenback’. However, the upbeat market mood during Thursday’s session reduced demand for the safe-haven currency, leaving USD on the defensive.

The Pound (GBP) lacked direction on Thursday, trading in a tight range against most major currencies as investors were left without new UK data to drive movement.

During Wednesday’s trading session, Sterling had gained some ground after interim PPI figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) pointed to lingering inflationary pressures, reinforcing speculation that Bank of England (BoE) may maintain a hawkish stance.

However, with no fresh catalysts emerging, this support quickly faded.

As a result, the Pound was left treading water through much of Thursday’s European session, with broader market sentiment dictating GBP exchange rate movements.

GBP/USD FORECAST:

Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate is set to be shaped by a key US release.

The spotlight will fall on July’s core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, which is forecast to edge higher from 2.8% to 2.9%.

Should the data meet expectations, it could strengthen the US Dollar by dampening speculation over potential Fed interest rate cuts, reinforcing demand for the ‘Greenback’ as the week draws to a close.

In contrast, the UK calendar will remain quiet, leaving Sterling without an economic catalyst.

This could see GBP trade largely on external factors. As a risk-sensitive currency, any improvement in market sentiment could lend the Pound some modest support, especially against the safe-haven US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

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David Woodsmith

STORY LINK EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Higher Toward 1.17 as Dollar Outlook Sours

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate forecast is turning more constructive after the currency pair rebounded sharply from three-week lows near 1.1580.

With the exchange rate pushing towards 1.1670, traders are watching whether EUR/USD can reclaim the 1.17 level as Federal Reserve fears and political pressure on the central bank continue to undermine US dollar support.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Looking to Regain 1.17

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) bounced quickly from 3-week lows just below 1.1580 on Wednesday and extended the recovery to 1.1670 on Thursday.

Dollar sentiment remains negative as investors continue to fret over US Administration attempts to gain control over the Federal Reserve while Euro-Zone political fears have eased slightly.

According to Scotiabank; “We see limited resistance ahead of the lower 1.17s and look to a near-term range bound between 1.1620 and 1.1720.”

UoB is also not expecting a breakout from narrow ranges in the near term; “The brief decline did not result in any clear increase in downward momentum. We continue to expect range trading but now expect a narrower range of 1.1580/1.1720.”

Federal Reserve policy and President Trump’s attacks on the central bank remain key elements.

As far as the September meeting is concerned, markets are pricing in around an 85% chance of a cut.

Governor Waller, who backed a rate cut at the July meeting, is due to make a speech after the New York close.

ING commented; “He’s now a dove (and a Republican) and could turn even more dovish after the July jobs report validated his concerns over the weakening labour market.”

MUFG maintains a bearish dollar stance and commented; “The US dollar is softer versus most G10 currencies after a turnaround yesterday from intra-day highs with uncertainty over Trump’s attack on Fed independence set to remain a strong deterrent against any sustained buying of the dollar.

It added; “The strength of the dollar yesterday looked somewhat detached from the fundamental news and was likely a reflection of month-end related flows.”

ING commented; “Short-dated US yields remain near their recent lows, and most would conclude that this week’s removal of the Fed’s Lisa Cook by President Trump is dollar-negative.”

Cook has stated that she is suing Trump over his attempts to fire her while it is still unclear whether she is still in her post.

US economic data was slightly stronger than expected which stemmed the potential for further aggressive near-term dollar selling.

Second-quarter GDP was revised up to an annualised 3.3% from the previous figure of 3.0% while initial jobless claims declined to 229,000 from 234,000 previously.

Euro-Zone political concerns have eased slightly, although there are still important tensions.

Scotiabank commented; “The Dutch PM won Wednesday’s confidence vote and France’s PM is making a considerable effort to negotiate with lawmakers ahead of his own Sept 8 confidence vote.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Analysts Eye GBP/USD Push Beyond 1.35

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) continues to face resistance near the 1.3500 level, with Sterling retreating to just below 1.3450 as the US Dollar holds firm.

Traders remain focused on Federal Reserve uncertainty, with President Trump’s push to oust Fed Governor Cook and gain influence over monetary policy keeping dollar risks elevated.

While ING expects a structural break higher in GBP/USD over time, analysts warn that political pressure on the Fed could spark volatility in the pound to dollar exchange rate outlook.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Break Above 1.35

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has been unable to break above the 1.3500 level and has retreated to just below 1.3450 as the dollar has resisted losses in global markets.

UoB commented; “Although GBP has not been able to make further headway to the upside, as long as 1.3425 holds, there is still a chance for GBP to edge higher.”

SocGen commented on the near-term technical outlook; “Short-term price action may evolve within a range defined by limits of last week low near 1.3385 and 1.3590. A break beyond one of these bands will be crucial for confirming a directional move.”

ING is still positive on the outlook; “In GBP/USD, we still think a structural break above 1.35 is a matter of when rather than if.”

Challenges to the Federal Reserve remain a key market focus with the Administration looking to secure greater control of the Fed policy and interest rates.

Specifically, President Trump remains determined to remove Governor Cook with the likelihood of a legal battle.

Saxo UK investor strategist Neil Wilson is concerned over the longer-term implications; “It’s the latest salvo in the Fed wars and shows how increasingly politicised the central bank is becoming.”

He added; “It’s going to be virtually impossible for the next chair to do anything other than Trump’s bidding. This should be negative for the dollar. The question for markets right now is about the September meeting but be in no doubt that we are witnessing a regime shift like we have not seen in decades.”

There were also reports on Tuesday that the US Administration was looking to take greater control of regional Fed Presidents.

This would be very important given that the Presidents serve on the rate-setting committee through rotation.

MUFG noted the potential risks; “It could give President Trump more influence over lowering rates, resetting financial regulation and adjusting the Fed’s balance sheet policies if he is successful that would have far reaching implications for the global economy and financial markets.

It added; “We continue to believe that the worrying developments could eventually trigger a much bigger sell-off for the US dollar.”

ING expects only a limited short-term impact; “Yet, the FX reaction has been muted and may only play out in the longer run, likely for two reasons. First, Cook is challenging the decision, which will probably end up in court. Second, her departure won’t have a big impact on the next few meetings. With Powell still in charge, markets expect policy to remain data-driven, and the dovish dissent remains too small to push for faster or larger cuts.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• The GBP/USD forecast indicates an increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

• Traders are only pricing a 40% chance of another Bank of England rate cut this year. 

• Wholesale inflation in the UK hit a two-year high of 1.9%.

The GBP/USD forecast indicates an increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which is weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, the pound remained steady as bets for another Bank of England rate cut this year have decreased following upbeat UK wholesale inflation. 

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Rate cut bets increased after Fed’s John Williams said a rate cut was possible. However, he noted that the outlook would largely depend on the upcoming economic releases. His remarks pushed traders to price an 89% chance of the central bank cutting in September.

The story is different in the UK, where traders are only pricing a 40% chance of another Bank of England rate cut this year. Data revealed that wholesale inflation in the UK hit a two-year high of 1.9%. This came after consumer inflation also jumped. As a result, policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone about future rate cuts.

“A more persistent hold on Bank Rate is appropriate right now, to maintain the tight-but-not-tighter monetary policy stance needed to lean against inflation persistence,” Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said in remarks released by the BoE on Tuesday.

GBP/USD key events today

• US preliminary GDP q/q
• US unemployment claims

GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls eye the 1.3575 resistance

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI in bullish territory above 50. This indicates that bulls are currently in the lead. However, the price is still not making higher highs and lows. 

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The trend recently shifted from bullish to bearish after meeting the key resistance level at 1.3575. However, bears were unable to break below a solid support zone comprising the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.3401 level. Here, the price made a solid bullish candle that broke above the SMA. It showed a surge in momentum. Although bulls struggled to maintain the price above the SMA, they produced another strong candle, indicating solid bullish momentum. 

The price is now targeting the 1.3575 resistance level. A break above will make a higher high, continuing the previous uptrend. It will also solidify the bullish trend.

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Copper price faced stochastic negativity by its stability above the extra support at $4.2600, keeping the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, while gathering the bullish momentum makes us expect targeting $4.6200, pressing on the barrier near $4.7500 to find an exit to resume the bullish attempts.

While the risk of changing the main trend is represented by forming a sharp decline, to settle below the support of the bullish channel towards $4.0750, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $3.9200 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3000 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bullish