Copper price faced stochastic negativity by its stability above the extra support at $4.2600, keeping the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, while gathering the bullish momentum makes us expect targeting $4.6200, pressing on the barrier near $4.7500 to find an exit to resume the bullish attempts.
While the risk of changing the main trend is represented by forming a sharp decline, to settle below the support of the bullish channel towards $4.0750, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $3.9200 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.3000 and $4.6200
USD/JPY holds 146.20–148.80 range as Fed political turmoil and key U.S. data loom.
Core PCE inflation, Spending, and Income data may trigger breakout ahead of September FOMC.
Bulls eye 150.00–150.90 on breakout; bears target 145.50–144.50 if 146.20 gives way.
USD/JPY rangebound ahead of key catalysts
The yen pair continues to trade inside a tight consolidation between 146.20 and 148.80, digesting August’s sharp rally. Neither side has managed to force a breakout, reflecting investor caution as two key forces converge:
Political risk at the Fed – the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook has raised doubts about the central bank’s independence.
U.S. inflation and consumption data – Friday’s Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, and Income numbers could dictate whether September brings the first rate cut.
UBS has already revised forecasts lower, projecting USD/JPY toward the 142–140 range by mid-2026. But in the near term, traders are waiting for the first decisive move out of this consolidation box.
Fed governor dismissal: Political shock to Dollar credibility
The unprecedented removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump injected fresh volatility. Markets are now questioning whether monetary policy decisions are being driven by political pressure rather than independence, a narrative that undermines the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.
Yen strengthened on credibility concerns.
USD weakened, despite risk-off sentiment that would normally support it.
Rate cut odds surged, with FedWatch showing over 80% probability of easing in September.
Core PCE, spending and income: The breakout trigger
Friday’s U.S. releases – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, and Personal Income – are highly anticipated. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and combined with spending/income trends, it will heavily influence policy expectations.
Hotter data (>0.3% MoM PCE): Would challenge the rate-cut narrative, strengthen the dollar, and support a bullish breakout above 148.80.
Weaker data (<0.3% MoM PCE/Income): Would reinforce September easing bets, favoring a bearish breakdown below 146.20.
This data could be the decisive trigger that resolves USD/JPY’s consolidation, especially given its proximity to the FOMC meeting.
News impact breakdown
News Event
Description
Impact on USD/JPY
Fed Political Turmoil
Governor dismissal shakes credibility
Weakens USD, favors yen
Policy Divergence
Dovish Fed vs. steady BOJ
Yen strength in risk-off
UBS Forecasts
Sees USD/JPY into 140s by 2026
Reinforces long-term bearish tilt
Core PCE, Spending, Income
Key inflation/consumption data
Likely breakout trigger
Technical outlook: Box range in focus
USD/JPY is consolidating in a 146.20 – 148.80 box, with mid-range support at ~147.30 acting as balance. The next breakout will likely coincide with Friday’s data or FOMC expectations.
Bullish scenario: Range expansion to 150.00+
If buyers defend the 147.20–147.40 mid-range and push price through the 148.80 ceiling, momentum could extend the August rally.
Triggers:
Mid-range defense at ~147.30.
Break and hold above 148.80.
Targets:
149.40 (round number magnet).
150.00–150.90 (measured move extension).
Invalidation: Breakdown below 146.80 would weaken bullish bias.
Bearish xcenario: Breakdown to 145.50–144.50
If price fails to hold the midpoint and momentum turns lower, USD/JPY could slide back to the 146.20 support floor. A breakdown there would confirm bearish expansion.
Triggers:
Rejection near mid-range resistance (~147.50).
Breakdown below 146.20.
Targets:
145.50 (short-term liquidity pocket).
144.80–144.50 (swing support zone).
142.60 (deeper flush if momentum accelerates).
Invalidation: Breakout above 148.80 cancels the bearish thesis.
Final thoughts
USD/JPY is coiled inside a 146.20–148.80 range, awaiting its breakout trigger. Two forces now dominate the outlook:
With political pressure on the Fed undermining the dollar and Core PCE inflation data looming, a breakout is imminent.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate forecast remains fragile after the single currency slipped to fresh lows near 1.1575 on Wednesday before stabilising into the New York open.
Political turmoil in Europe, including renewed fears over France’s government, continues to weigh on the euro, while the US dollar has held firm despite growing concerns about Federal Reserve independence.
Analysts remain split, with some warning of further losses toward 1.14, while others still see scope for EUR/USD to rebound toward 1.17 and even 1.20 over the medium term.
EUR/USD Forecasts: 1.1580 and 1.1745 Range?
The Euro has not been able to gain any traction on Wednesday and dipped to lows around 1.1575 before stabilising at the New York open.
The Euro has been undermined by on-going European concerns while the dollar has been resilient despite on-going unease surrounding the Administration attempts to gain greater control of the Federal Reserve.
According to UoB; “we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.1580 and 1.1745 for now.”
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Scotiabank notes the potential risk of a slide to 1.14, but added; “We remain neutral—for now— looking to a near-term range bound between 1.1550 support 1.1650 resistance.”
ING expects that the Euro can rebound; “We think EUR/USD can ultimately make its way back to 1.170.
Danske Bank expects a medium-term EUR/USD move to above 1.20.
Markets are continuing to monitor the French political situation and the bond market.
According to Rabobank; “the risk has grown substantially that France’s government will fall, which would also raise the risk that the 2026 budget will not include any material spending cuts.”
It added; “The coming days will tell if Bayrou can work the opposition parties to get them on board. The Socialists have said that it’s “inconceivable” that they will vote in favour of the government, but they seem to be the prime minister’s best chance for survival at this point.”
Scotiabank also noted European concerns; “Political uncertainty in Europe appears to be broadening as the Dutch government faces a no confidence vote ahead of an election scheduled for October. French bond markets look to have stabilized somewhat following Tuesday’s announcement of a September 8 confidence vote, however the country’s yields remain elevated as French-German yield spreads continue to widen.”
As far as the US economy is concerned, the consumer confidence index edged lower to 97.4 for August from 98.7 previously, but above consensus forecasts of 96.4.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board commented; “The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month.”
According to Rabobank; “Given Powell’s dovish lean at Jackson Hole and the recent repricing of the Fed, we are reluctant to chase the USD weaker in the near term, with downside risks to yields now looking more limited.”
Nevertheless, it added; “Strategically, we continue to recommend selling into rallies, consistent with our view that the USD remains on a downward trajectory over the medium term.”
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The Pound US Dollar exchange rate dipped on Wednesday as a downbeat sentiment swept markets.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3436, down roughly 0.3% from the start of Wednesday’s session.
The US Dollar (USD) pushed higher through Wednesday’s session, overcoming renewed political unease linked to the Federal Reserve.
Fresh reports suggesting that Donald Trump intends to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook reignited worries about political interference at the central bank this week.
While such developments often sap confidence in the Dollar, the currency was instead buoyed by its safe-haven appeal as investors sought stability amid fragile global sentiment.
This resilience allowed USD to make notable gains against several peers, with traders favouring the ‘Greenback’ despite the uncertainty hanging over the Fed.
The Pound (GBP) saw a patchy performance on Wednesday, making modest gains against some currencies while remaining steady against others, after the UK’s latest CBI distributive trades survey was published.
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Retail activity continued to show signs of contraction, but the index slightly exceeded expectations, rising from -34 to -32 instead of the anticipated -33.
The small upside provided Sterling with limited support, helping the Pound maintain a generally steady tone across major currencies during mid-week trade.
GBP/USD FORECAST
Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, the focus for GBP/USD will shift firmly onto the upcoming release of the US’s second-quarter GDP estimate.
Markets are expecting a rebound in growth, with forecasts pointing to a stronger reading following the slowdown earlier in the year.
If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it could reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy and provide fresh support for the ‘Greenback’.
Turning to the Pound, the UK data calendar remains relatively barren, leaving Sterling without a strong domestic driver.
This absence of fresh UK data means the Pound is likely to take its cues from broader market mood, limiting the scope for any major upside as the week progresses.
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The EUR/USD forecast points south as market participants worry about political stability in France.
The French Prime Minister has called for a confidence vote in early September.
The dollar rebounded on Wednesday as concerns about the Fed’s independence eased.
The EUR/USD forecast points south as market participants worry about political stability in France. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered from a recent collapse as worries about the independence of the Fed eased.
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The French Prime Minister has called for a confidence vote in early September that could lead to another collapse in the government. The news led to a collapse in government bonds as traders worried that it would mean instability and no budget by the end of the year. As a result, the euro has faced downward pressure.
“What is key is whether or not we will be able to have a budget by the end of the year,” said AXA chief economist Gilles Moec.
On the other hand, the dollar rebounded on Wednesday as concerns about the Fed’s independence eased. On Monday, Trump ordered the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which led to a collapse in the greenback. The move escalated tensions between Trump and the Fed. At the same time, traders grew concerned about the future of the central bank. Such a move could mean a more political Fed in the future with no independence.
EUR/USD key events today
Traders are not anticipating any high-impact economic releases from the US or the Eurozone. Therefore, market focus will remain on France’s politics.
EUR/USD technical forecast: Bears aim for the 1.1550 support level
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the EUR/USD price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. The decline comes after bulls failed to keep the price above the 1.1700 key resistance level.
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EUR/USD has maintained a sideways move after the trend reversed near the 1.1400 support level. Bulls took over and started making higher highs and lows. However, they were unable to continue the rally past the 1.1700 resistance. Since then, the price has chopped through the 30-SMA with no clear direction. It made another failed attempt when the bulls made a strong green candle.
Currently, bears are eyeing the 1.1550 support level. A break below will allow the price to retest the 1.1400 support and start a new downtrend.
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The British pound rallied slightly during the session on Tuesday against the US dollar, as market participants are still trying to sort out what it is the Federal Reserve is doing.
It’s worth noting that on Friday, after the speech by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, the US dollar was pummeled by multiple currencies as traders started to price in the idea of perhaps the Federal Reserve cutting rates.
However, the Monday session saw a huge drop, although it didn’t wipe out the overall gains.
Now we have seen the market turned back around, but it’s also worth noting that the bullish candle was exactly that big. This tells me that we are more likely than not to try to settle into a short-term range.
Neutral Stance of British Pound?
While the British pound has been one of the better performers against the US dollar over the last couple of years, even on the way down, the reality is that the market has now slowed down and it looks as if the British pound might be going a little bit more neutral. If that’s going to be the case, I would be surprised at all to see the 1.36 level continue to hold as resistance, but it’s also possible that the 1.34 level continues to hold as support, but it’s also possible that the 1.34 level gives way. If it does, then the stance on the British pound changes rapidly, and it becomes much more bearish. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to move right along with other dollar related currency pairs, but the British pound of course has been stronger than many of his contemporaries.
All things being equal, we will be paying close attention to what the Federal Reserve has to say, and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that the overall attitude of the Federal Reserve will give us a “heads up as to where the US dollar itself goes.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The Jackson Hole symposium set the stage for a renewed dovish shift in global markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks – emphasizing labor market softness and openness to easing – were read as a green light for September rate cuts. This was further amplified by political turbulence: the U.S. President’s move to block Fed Governor Lisa Cook rattled investor confidence in the Fed’s independence, a rare development that undermined the dollar’s stability.
Together, these factors have kept EUR/USD from breaking lower despite eurozone weakness, as markets lean heavily toward a dollar-softening policy shift.
Fundamental drivers: CME FedWatch and policy odds
The latest CME FedWatch tool underscores how markets are positioned:
87.3% chance of a 25bps cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate into the 400–425bps band.
Only 12.7% odds of no change, while 0% probability of a hike remains firmly priced out.
This overwhelming conviction reflects not only Powell’s Jackson Hole tone but also the broader sense that the Fed will prioritize cushioning growth over fighting residual inflation.
Upcoming high-impact data: PCE and spending (Aug 29)
Friday’s U.S. Core PCE Price Index (July) – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – will be crucial for EUR/USD direction.
Expected 0.3% MoM (steady with prior) → A soft read could reinforce cut expectations, weakening USD and lifting EUR/USD above resistance.
Upside surprise (0.4% or higher) → Would undermine September cut conviction, sparking a USD rebound and pressure toward 1.1550.
Alongside this, Personal Spending (0.5% prior, forecast 0.3%) and Personal Income (0.4% prior, forecast 0.3%) will offer insights into U.S. consumer resilience. Stronger data could delay Fed cuts, while weakness supports the dovish case.
In short, these releases are the last major inflation/consumption checkpoint before September FOMC, making them a likely volatility trigger for EUR/USD.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD holding inside H4 fair value gap
EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1628, consolidating within a clearly defined H4 Fair Value Gap (1.1583 – 1.1742). This imbalance is dictating near-term flows, with buyers and sellers battling over whether price will sustain within or break out of the zone.
The resistance at 1.1742 coincides with the post–Jackson Hole spike high, acting as a key resistance.
The midpoint zone near 1.1665 is a short-term pivot, where rejection could fuel another leg lower.
On the downside, 1.1602 – 1.1583 is immediate support, where liquidity could be swept before any bullish continuation attempt, or even a downside breakdown.
Bullish narrative: Sweep into expansion
EUR/USD could dip into the 1.1602–1.1583 liquidity pocket before snapping higher. A reclaim of the 1.1665 pivot would set up a drive toward the 1.1742 FVG top, with potential extension to 1.1780–1.1820. Softer U.S. Core PCE data would reinforce this upside case.
Sweep of 1.1602–1.1583 then rebound
Break above 1.1665 pivot
Targets: 1.1742 → 1.1780–1.1820
Bearish narrative: Pivot rejection
If EUR/USD fails at the 1.1665 pivot, sellers may regain control. A break below 1.1602 would expose 1.1583, and losing that level risks a slide toward 1.1550–1.1500. Stronger U.S. inflation or spending data would favor this bearish path.
Rejection at 1.1665 pivot
Break below 1.1602 → 1.1583
Downside: 1.1550 → 1.1500
Final thoughts
EUR/USD is sitting at a crossroads inside the H4 Fair Value Gap (1.1583–1.1742). With markets already pricing an 87% chance of a Fed cut, the dollar’s next move hinges on whether Friday’s Core PCE data validates or challenges that dovish outlook.
Until then, expect liquidity sweeps around 1.1600–1.1665 to shape intraday flows. A breakout above the FVG could unlock further upside, while a pivot rejection risks dragging the pair back toward 1.1550–1.1500. Traders should remain flexible, treating the upcoming U.S. data as the key volatility trigger that decides whether EUR/USD resolves higher or lower.
Platinum price surprised by a new obstacle at $1355.00, decelerating the chances of resuming the bullish attempts, which force it to form sideways fluctuation near $1345.00 level, by the above image we notice forming an important extra support at $1326.00 to reinforce the dominance of the bullish bias, increasing the chances for gathering the positive momentum in the current period.
Therefore, we will keep our bullish scenario depending on the stability of the extra support, to wait for breaching the extra barrier to open the way for achieving more of the gains by its rally towards $1383.00 reaching $1408.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1335.00 and $1383.00
The EURJPY pair remains affected by the dominance of the sideways bias until this momentum, due to the continuation of the contradiction between stochastic negativity by its reach below 50 level and the stability within the main bullish levels, besides the stability of the moving average 55 near the support of the channel at 168.85.
Reminding you that the continuation of forming extra support at 170.45 level supports our bullish expectation by confirming its stability within the bullish track, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, to ease the mission of pressing on the barrier at 173.40, then begin targeting the main stations near 174.10 and 175.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 171.25 and 173.40
