Platinum price took advantage of its repeated positive stability above the breached obstacle level at $1342.00, besides providing positive momentum by the main indicators, achieving the suggested targets by hitting $1383.60, to force it to provide some sideways trading by its fluctuation near $1355.00.
By the above image, we notice the stability of the moving average 55 near $1342.00 level, reinforcing the chances for forming an important extra support level, increasing the efficiency of the bullish track, to expect reaching $1383.00 and surpassing it will form the next main target for the bullish track at $1420.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $1340.00 and $1383.00
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD: Inflation in Focus as Traders Eye a November RBA Rate Cut
Turning to the AUD/USD pair, the RBA cut interest rates this month as inflation cooled. A further easing in inflation could boost expectations of further policy easing in the fourth quarter. On Wednesday, August 27, the Monthly CPI Indicator may affect demand for the Aussie dollar. Economists expect the annual inflation rate to rise from 1.9% in June to 2.2% in July.
A higher-than-expected reading could temper expectations of a Q4 RBA rate cut, lifting the appetite for the Aussie dollar. Conversely, a softer inflation print may bolster bets on further policy easing. This week’s inflation data could be crucial for the AUD/USD pair given Fed Chair Powell’s policy pivot on Friday, August 22. AUD/USD rallied 1.09% to close the session at $0.64898 on Powell hinting at a September rate cut.
When do economists expect the RBA to ease policy further?
AMP Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver projected a November rate cut and further policy easing in H1 2026, stating:
“We continue to see the RBA cutting rates again in November, February and May taking the cash rate down to 2.85%.”
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Dovish RBA signals and softer inflation. These factors could push AUD/USD toward the 200-day EMA and $0.6450 support level.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Hawkish RBA rhetoric and hotter inflation. These factors could send AUD/USD above the 50-day EMA, bringing the $0.6550 resistance level into play.
Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook: Will US Data Narrow the Rate Differential?
While economists are betting on a November RBA rate cut, support for a September Fed rate cut sent AUD/USD toward $0.65.
Weaker-than-expected US economic data could raise expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts, narrowing the rate differential. A narrower rate differential may push the pair above the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA and the $0.65 level may pave the way to the $0.6550 suppot level.
Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could signal a less dovish Fed rate path, potentially widening the rate differential. Under this scenario, AUD/USD could fall toward the 200-day EMA and the $0.6450 support level.
Beyond the data, traders should monitor FOMC members’ comments on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy.
The British Pound faces its most alarming warning in decades, with GBP analysts bracing for heavy losses against the euro and US dollar. A former Bank of England policymaker has drawn chilling parallels with the economic crash of 1976 – when the UK was forced into an IMF bailout. With inflation stuck near 4%, gilt yields heading towards 5%, and government borrowing spiralling, fears are growing that the Pound Sterling could be sliding towards a historic collapse.
Former Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Andrew Sentance has warned that the UK will see a repeat of the 1976 economic crisis with bonds and the Pound sliding in tandem.
Rachel Reeves is on course to deliver a Healey 1976-style crisis in late 2025 or 26. Like Healey, she has massively boosted public spending, borrowing and taxes – fuelling both demand-pull and cost-push inflation. Unless policies are reversed we are heading for an economic crash!
There was a mini scare in January, but Sentance has warned that this is just a taster for more severe turbulence within the next few months.
ING expects the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate to slide to 1.11 by the end of 2026.
There are parallels with 1976 in weather terms as that year was famous or infamous for a prolonged period of hot weather and drought with the government appointing a minister for drought.
It’s also worth noting that this was followed by heavy rain and floods.
As far as the economy is concerned, 1976 marked economic humiliation for the Callaghan government with Chancellor Healey forced to run to the IMF for an emergency loan as the Pound plummeted in currency markets.
The pound collapsed amid a widening budget deficit, a yawning current account imbalance and stubbornly persistent inflation with the Bank of England unable to support growth via cuts in interest rates.
The government secured a $3.9bn loan, half of which was drawn down by the administration.
Andrew Sentance, who was well known as a very hawkish voice on the MPC has issued a stark new warning.
According to Sentance; “Rachel Reeves is on course to deliver a Healey 1976-style crisis in late 2025 or 26. Like Healey, she has massively boosted public spending, borrowing and taxes – fuelling both demand-pull and cost-push inflation. Unless policies are reversed we are heading for an economic crash!”
The latest official inflation data recorded headline and core inflation at 3.8%, but Sentence considers that the data is underestimating inflation.
Looking at a wider range of indicators, Sentance considers that inflation is already 4.1% and set to increase further.
The 10-year bond yield has increased to above 4.75% and close to 4-month highs. According to Sentence, the yield could increase to 5% before long.
The Pound posted sharp losses in January as fears surrounding UK economic policy increased.
As bond yields continue to move higher, the cost of debt servicing continues to increase. This risks a vicious cycle as bond markets and the Pound crash in tandem.
Sentance has also continued to criticise Bank of England policy.
According to Sentance; “The shocking surge in UK inflation continues. When will the MPC recognise that control of inflation requires policy action to bear down on price rises with interest rates. Cutting rates while inflation is rising is a perverse and irresponsible policy.”
Danske Bank is wary over UK fundamentals and expects GBP/EUR losses to 1.1235 on a 6-12-month view. According to Danske; “The key risk to seeing EUR/GBP trade substantially higher than our forecast is a sharp sell-off in global risk and/or renewed focus on the UK’s fragile fiscal position.”
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The latest Pound Sterling forecasts point to a split outlook: analysts see the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) forecast turning more positive, while the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) forecast remains subdued. Markets expect Sterling to push higher against the US Dollar towards 1.39 over the next 12 months, but struggle to break above 1.16 against the Euro.
Consensus suggests a diverging path for Sterling, shaped by resilient UK economic data, stubborn inflation at 3.8%, and an uncertain Bank of England (BoE) policy outlook.
Pound to Dollar Forecast (GBP/USD)
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate failed to re-test the 1.36 level this week, retreating to near 1.34 amid a tentative dollar recovery. Nevertheless, consensus forecasts are for GBP/USD to strengthen to 1.39 on a 12-month view as markets anticipate lower Federal Reserve interest rates.
Not all banks are aligned: Wells Fargo expects GBP/USD will retreat to 1.30 by the end of 2026 on renewed dollar gains, while UBS sees scope for a move back to 1.39 by late 2025, citing “the outlook for lower Federal Reserve rates, White House policy uncertainty, and international investors raising hedge ratios for dollar assets.”
The Federal Reserve remains the key driver. Earlier in the week, markets were convinced that the Fed would cut rates in September, but stronger US data has cast doubt. Fed members remain split, with Cleveland Fed President Hammack stating current conditions “do not justify a rate cut at this stage.”
Markets are now pricing just over a 70% chance of a September cut. A cautious stance from Chair Powell at Jackson Hole could see the Dollar regain ground in the short term, but longer-term expectations still lean towards weakness, underpinning the more positive GBP/USD forecast.
Pound to Euro Forecast (GBP/EUR)
The Pound to Euro exchange rate has consolidated around 1.1570 after failing again to hold above 1.16. Consensus forecasts point to limited losses, with GBP/EUR seen at 1.15 on a 12-month horizon.
Danske Bank is more bearish, forecasting a retreat to 1.1235 within 6-12 months on the back of weak UK fundamentals. It argues that relative growth dynamics are turning against Sterling:
“We increasingly see domestic factors and the relative growth outlook between the UK and the euro area as becoming GBP negatives. This is further amplified by divergence in fiscal policy, with UK fiscal policy set to be tightened in the Autumn.”
Societe Generale also warns that Sterling’s underlying support is fading:
“GBP has decent short-term support, even if its medium-term support is rotting away in the face of a depressing fiscal outlook. Higher taxes are coming and so is slower growth and further GBP weakness.”
SocGen highlights the Euro’s strengthening base, noting that EUR/GBP support has risen steadily from 0.8250 early in the year to 0.86 by July. By the autumn, it expects support to climb to 0.87 — implying GBP/EUR below 1.15.
UK data continues to paint a mixed picture. Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction, while services activity hit a 12-month high. Inflation data came in stronger than expected at 3.8% for both headline and core, raising stagflation concerns.
The Eurozone, meanwhile, reported a 15-month high in its composite output index, supported by gains in both manufacturing and services despite ongoing global trade headwinds.
The Pound Sterling forecast remains finely balanced. Against the Dollar, expectations of Fed easing underpin projections for GBP/USD to strengthen towards 1.39, but short-term risks remain if Powell pushes back on cuts. Against the Euro, Sterling continues to struggle, with GBP/EUR likely capped around 1.15 and downside risks highlighted by Danske and SocGen.
For now, Sterling’s fate will rest on a tug of war between UK fundamentals, BoE caution, and external drivers from Washington and Frankfurt.
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The US dollar continues to take off against the Japanese yen. And if Jerome Powell sounds even remotely hawkish during the session on Friday, then that could send the US dollar screaming towards the 150.50 yen level. On a pullback, I would anticipate that the 50 day EMA offers support, followed by the 146 yen level.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar tried to rally during the session, but it looks like it’s going to give those gains up pretty quickly, as there just isn’t enough momentum to get the Aussie moving. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation here where you have to assume that market participants are looking at this through the prism of a market that just hasn’t performed well to begin with.
And therefore, it makes a lot of sense that the Australian dollar eventually gives up strength. Keep in mind that New Zealand just cut interest rates and that probably has people thinking the Australian dollar will suffer the same fate and that makes it a little weaker than other currencies in general.
Over the last year, we’ve seen the US dollar get hit pretty hard and with that, I think you have to believe that if the Australian dollar really couldn’t take advantage of it. If we start to see the US dollar strengthen, then the Aussie is really going to take it on the chin. As things stand right now, I like fading rallies, and I believe the 0.6550 level will continue to be resistant.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The GBPJPY pair provided temporary positive trading, attempting to recover some of its losses by its rally to 199.35, to begin declining affected by stochastic negativity, approaching from 20 level as appears in the above image.
The attempts of forming an extra barrier at 199.60 level confirms the price confinement within the bearish track, to keep preferring the negative attempts, that might target 198.20 reaching 197.45, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correctional level.
The expected trading range for today is between 198.20 and 199.40
The EURGBP was affected by some negative factors, forming bearish correctional decline to 0.8595, forming extra support to allow it recover some of the losses by its rally to 0.8660.
Note that the stability of the price within the bullish channel’s levels might extend its main support level to 0.8545, besides providing positive momentum by stochastic, these factors confirm the price readiness to renew its bullish attempts, to expect targeting 0.8695 level, to press on 0.8735 resistance.
The expected trading range for today is between 00.8630 and 0.8695
GBP/USD trades near 1.3400 in the European session on Friday.
The US Dollar rallied on strong PMI data on Thursday.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole could ramp up the pair’s volatility.
GBP/USD stabilizes slightly above 1.3400 in the European session on Friday after posting losses for four consecutive days and losing about 1% since the beginning of the week. Investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.98%
1.03%
0.98%
0.69%
1.31%
1.98%
0.46%
EUR
-0.98%
0.05%
-0.02%
-0.29%
0.34%
0.96%
-0.51%
GBP
-1.03%
-0.05%
-0.14%
-0.33%
0.29%
0.91%
-0.60%
JPY
-0.98%
0.02%
0.14%
-0.28%
0.34%
1.00%
-0.52%
CAD
-0.69%
0.29%
0.33%
0.28%
0.60%
1.28%
-0.26%
AUD
-1.31%
-0.34%
-0.29%
-0.34%
-0.60%
0.61%
-0.90%
NZD
-1.98%
-0.96%
-0.91%
-1.00%
-1.28%
-0.61%
-1.52%
CHF
-0.46%
0.51%
0.60%
0.52%
0.26%
0.90%
1.52%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) benefited from the upbeat Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the US and caused GBP/USD to push lower on Thursday. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 53.3 in August’s preliminary estimate from 49.8 in July and the Services PMI came in at 55.4, beating the market expectation of 54.2. Reflecting the broad-based USD strength, the USD Index climbed to its highest level in over two weeks near 99.00 early Friday.
In assessment of the findings of the survey, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explained that the increase seen in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further in the coming months.
“Combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes,” Williamson added.
The odds of a 25 basis-points (bps) Fed rate cut at the next meeting declined to 73% from about 84% before the release of the PMI data, as per CME FedWatch Tool.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech, entitled “Economic Outlook and Framework Review,” will be scrutinized by market participants in the American session on Friday.
In case Powell repeats that they need more time to analyze the impact of tariffs on inflation before entering a policy-easing cycle, the USD could preserve its strength and force GBP/USD to stay on the back foot heading into the weekend.
Conversely, the USD could come under selling pressure if Powell hints at a September rate cut by acknowledging worsening conditions in the labor market. In this scenario, GBP/USD could erase some of its weekly losses in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart edges higher but remains below 40, suggesting that GBP/USD’s bearish bias remains intact despite the latest recovery attempt.
On the upside, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-period SMA form a strong resistance area at 1.3425-1.3440 before 1.3460 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3500 (static level, round level, 50-period SMA).
Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3400-1.3390 (static level, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.3330 (static level) and 1.3300 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The British Pound has rallied nicely against the Japanese Yen during the trading session as the 50-day EMA looks like it is offering a bit of support.
That being said, keep in mind this is a pair that’s highly sensitive to risk appetite and therefore I think you have to watch what other markets are doing.
The most obvious level on this chart is going to be the 200 yen level, an area that has been like a brick wall, if we can break above there finally, and continue to go higher, it could lead to a massive shot to the upside.
If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA that could send the British pound down to the 196 yen level, possibly even as low as the 200 day EMA which is underneath there. So that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where we are at an inflection point. But we are also in a bullish trend that is now pressuring a major barrier.
On a Break Above 200
If we can get beyond that barrier, you will probably see the Japanese yen get eviscerated by almost everything else around the world as well. It probably won’t be just a British pound thing. That being said, Friday has the speech by Jerome Powell and that of course will make a certain amount of sense that it could cause some noise.
And with this, I think you have to understand that traders are looking for some type of clarity on what the Federal Reserve will do and therefore what risk appetite might be due to monetary policy.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think will be very volatile, but that’s typically the case here with this pair anyways. I still favor the upside, but we obviously have a huge mountain to climb just above at this big figure.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
