• The USD/JPY outlook shows some indecision in the market ahead of the US CPI.

• Economists are forecasting a US headline figure of 2.8%.

• Trade tensions between China and the US might increase.

The USD/JPY outlook shows some indecision in the market as traders look forward to crucial US inflation figures. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the deadline for a trade deal between the US and China looms.

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This week, the US will release its pivotal CPI report. This will show the state of inflation in the country and will shape the outlook for rate cuts. Economists are forecasting a headline figure of 2.8%, higher than the previous reading of 2.7%. Meanwhile, the monthly figure might increase by 0.2%, slower than the previous increase of 0.3%. An unexpected outcome will increase market volatility in either direction.

Meanwhile, talks between China and the US have dragged on with no clear trade deal. The August 12 deadline is nearing, and if there is still no deal, tensions between the two countries might increase. This would also increase market volatility. The yen would benefit due to its safe-haven nature. 

“If I’d be playing it any way, I’d be long volatility this week,” said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX Sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland, citing the unpredictability of the looming events.

USD/JPY key events today

Neither the US nor Japan will release any high-impact reports today. Therefore, the pair might consolidate ahead of the US inflation numbers.

USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls eye the 149.01 resistance level

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA and has pulled back to retest it. The break indicates a shift in sentiment to bullish. At the same time, the RSI has gone above 50, suggesting stronger bullish momentum. 

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If bulls find their footing above the SMA, the price will likely climb to retest the 149.01. A break above this level would confirm a new uptrend. On the other hand, if the price fails to make much movement above the SMA, it might drop back below to retest the 146.00 support level. A break below this support would signal a downtrend. 

However, USD/JPY has lacked direction on a larger scale for some time. Instead, it has been making swings that keep chopping through the SMA. If this continues, there will be no trend in either direction.

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• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650 in the European session on Monday.
• Dovish Fed commentary makes it difficult for the US Dollar to gather strength.
• Investors will keep a close eye on US-China trade talks.

After ending the previous week modestly higher, EUR/USD stabilizes on Monday and fluctuates at around 1.1650 in the European session. The technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but doesn’t yet point to a buildup of momentum.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that the weak labor market data underscores her concerns about the labor market fragility and strengthens her confidence in her own forecast that three interest rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year. “The apparent weakening in the labor market outweighs the risks of higher inflation to come,” Bowman argued.

These comments seem to be making it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to gather strength against its rivals to start the week. Furthermore, investors could be refraining from taking large positions in the USD ahead of the key July inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, investors await fresh developments surrounding the US-China trade talks as the August 12 deadline for a deal looms. In case sides make progress and add on to the current deal, while agreeing on to extend the deadline again, risk flows could dominate the action in financial markets in the second half of the day. In this scenario, the USD could stay on the back foot. On the flip side, markets could adopt a cautious stance if the US and China fail to avoid imposing triple-digit tariffs.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 50 but EUR/USD stays below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located at 1.1670, reflecting buyers’ hesitancy.

In case EUR/USD rises above 1.1670 (200-period SMA) and confirms that level as a support, 1.1700 (static level, round level) could be seen as the next interim resistance level ahead of 1.1760 (static level). On the downside, support levels could be spotted at 1.1625 (100-period SMA), 1.1570 (50-period SMA) and 1.1540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend).

The GBPJPY pair took advantage of the positive factors that ae represented by the positive momentum from the main indicators and forming a new support at 197.45 level, forming a new bullish rally on Friday by achieving the target at 198.85, to face strong challenge by forming extra barriers by 66%Fibonacci correction level.

Stepping above the current barrier is required to resume the bullish attempts, besides providing positive close to reinforce the chances of reaching extra positive stations that might begin at 200.45, while the failure to breach will push it to renew the bearish correctional attempts, which forces it to reach 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 197.45, and breaking it will extend the losses in the near period to 196.55 and 195.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.25 and 200.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on August 11, 2025

• The Euro has rallied a little bit during the trading session here on Friday as we continue to build a bit of a bullish flag.
• I think this is a candlestick formation that pretty much everybody can pay close attention to and see quite obviously.
• What I find interesting about this bullish flag is that the 50 day EMA sits just below the 170 yen level, which is also the bottom of a part of the bullish flag that people would expect to offer support.
• If we can break to the upside, the 173 yen level is a resistance barrier and target. And if we can break above there, then I think the market is likely to go look into the 175 yen level.

If We Were to Break Lower

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, then I think you will probably see this market drop pretty significantly, perhaps down to the 166 yen level. Keep in mind that this is a risk appetite based currency pair, and the Japanese yen of course is represented by the Bank of Japan, which has a major issue on its hand.

In other words, it has to deal with the bond market in Japan, which is horribly unsubscribed to on some days. And in fact, there’s been days where there’s been zero bids for Japanese debt. So, with that being said, it’s not a surprise to see that the yen is struggling against a lot of currencies. And in fact, it’s even starting to struggle a little bit against the US dollar, which of course has been sold off by pretty much everybody.

So, if we can break above the 173 yen level, I can imagine a scenario where we rally another 1000 pips to about 183, maybe 182, we’ll just have to wait and see. But this is obviously a market that you get paid to hang on to as far as interest rates are concerned. So, I like buying dips, I also like buying breakouts.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase below 1.3500 on Monday.
• The risk-positive market atmosphere could support the pair in the near term.
• UK employment data and the US inflation report could trigger big reaction in GBP/USD.

GBP/USD moves sideways above 1.3450 after gaining more than 1% in the previous week. The pair’s technical outlook points to overbought conditions in the near term.

GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum in the second half of the previous week as Pound Sterling benefited from the Bank of England (BoE) hawkish rate cut. Speaking on the policy outlook, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday that there is a risk of a spill-over into more persistent inflation.

On the flip side, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to stay resilient against its peers as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers hint at a dovish policy stance in the last quarter of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that the latest weak labor market data underscores her concerns about labor market fragility and strengthens her confidence in her own forecast that three interest rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.

Early Monday, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index gains about 0.3% and US stock index futures marginally higher on the day. In case markets remain risk-positive, especially if the US and China decides to extend the deadline for a trade deal, the USD could have a hard time gathering strength and help GBP/USD hold its ground.

On Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics will publish the employment data. A noticeable decline in the wage inflation figures could hurt Pound Sterling with the initial reaction. Later in the day, July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US will be watched closely by market participants.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays above 70, suggesting that there could be a technical correction before the next leg higher.

On the downside, the immediate support is located at 1.3460 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) before 1.3400-1.3390 (round level, static level, 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 382% retracement).

Looking north, a strong resistance level seems to have formed at 1.3490-1.3500 (200-period SMA, static level, round level). In case GBP/USD rises above this area and starts using it as support, 13540 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be seen as the next resistance level ahead of 1.3600 (static level, round level).

expectations have been the primary driver of this month, making Tuesday’s report a potential catalyst for a break from the recent range.

• USD/JPY tied closely to Fed rate cut pricing in August.
• US CPI report the main known risk this week.
• Producer prices also key for Fed inflation gauge.
• Trump–Putin meeting could stir late-week volatility.
• Key levels: 147.00 support, 147.95 resistance.

USD/JPY Outlook Summary

Fed rate cut expectations have been steering USD/JPY more than moves in longer-dated yields or shifts in risk appetite this month, putting this week’s U.S. inflation reports firmly in the spotlight. With higher import tariffs starting to filter through and the risk of stronger inflation rising, the near-term bias tilts towards modest USD/JPY upside if its link to rate cut pricing holds. The charts tell a similar story.

Fed Rate Pricing Remains Dominant Driver

Source: TradingView

The relationship between 2025 Fed rate cut pricing and USD/JPY has been incredibly strong over the past fortnight, with a correlation coefficient of -0.97. As market rate cut expectations have swelled, as implied by futures, USD/JPY has tended to fall—and vice versa when the opposite occurred.

Over the same period, the relationship between USD/JPY and U.S. Treasury yields, along with yield spreads between the U.S. and Japan over both short and longer durations, has been nowhere near as strong. Nor has the relationship with the or been meaningful, suggesting that, for now, risk appetite is also playing second fiddle to shifts in sentiment towards the near-term outlook for U.S. rates.

Assuming there’s no significant change in these trends or an unexpected volatility event, it puts greater emphasis on this week’s U.S. inflation reports to drive USD/JPY direction.

U.S. CPI, PPI Headline Event Risk

The key economic and market events from both the United States and Japan are shown in the calendar below. U.S. ET shown.

Source: LSEG

Given its historic tendency to spark significant market volatility, Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price inflation report for July is undeniably the key known risk event on the data calendar. is seen lifting 0.2% over the month, down from 0.3% in June. Without revisions to prior data, that should see the lift a tenth to 2.8%.

For the key , which excludes food and energy prices, a 0.3% increase is seen for the month. If correct, that would leave the at an uncomfortable 3%, up from 2.9% in June.

While focus on goods prices will garner much attention given the impact of higher tariff rates, don’t discount the message from services readings, which are often far more influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions, especially the labour market. If core services inflation, which excludes items such as shelter and energy services, comes in weak, that would help ease concerns that near-term inflationary effects from tariffs may become entrenched. The opposite would be true if services inflation is strong, of course.

Beyond the CPI update, Thursday’s report is also important as it will likely show what’s happening with upstream price pressures from tariffs, but also has several components that feed directly into the Federal Reserve’s preferred underlying inflation measure, the .

U.S. import prices and on Friday, along with Japanese and data on Wednesday and Friday respectively, are the other key events to watch on the data calendar.

The Federal Reserve speakers’ calendar looks relatively light at first glance, although traders should be on the lookout for unscheduled commentary throughout the week, especially after the CPI report on Tuesday. When it comes to those members who vote on interest rates this year, Schmid and Goolsbee are the ones to pay extra attention to.

Source: LSEG

Friday’s scheduled meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska is another key risk event that could spark volatility for USD/JPY late in the week. Given it remains unclear whether the meeting will include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, expectations are understandably muted about a lasting outcome that will bring peace.

That also arguably points to asymmetric risks for risk appetite, and potentially USD/JPY given its role as a funding currency for carry trades, should a peace deal acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine be reached.

USD/JPY Rangebound with an Upward Tilt

Source: TradingView

USD/JPY was rangebound last week as market expectations for Fed rate cuts stabilised, with buyers emerging on dips beneath 147.00 and sellers capping moves ahead of resistance at 147.95. They’re the two initial levels for traders to watch.

Friday’s modest bounce helped complete a three-candle morning star pattern on the daily chart, hinting that directional risks may be starting to skew higher. However, having formed within a narrow range, the signal loses some of its significance. The same applies to momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD, which are providing neutral readings despite sitting in marginally bullish territory.

Above 147.95 resistance, 149.00 and 151 are the levels to watch. A close beneath 147.00 support—not just an intraday probe—may see bears target a retest of 146.00 or even 144.40.

Original Post

Created on August 10, 2025

Gold markets have been bullish again during the course of the week as we broke above the $3500 level. The $3500 level has been like a ceiling in this market for some time and breaking above there obviously will attract a lot of headlines. However, it is probably worth noting that the Friday session is rolling back over so I don’t know that we have the momentum to truly clear this area quite yet. Regardless, this remains a “buy on the dips” type of market. I have no interest in shorting this market although I fully anticipate that it could pull back just a bit.

The NASDAQ 100 rallied during the course of the week, breaking above the 23,250 level again. We have essentially wiped out 80% or so of the losses from the previous week, so it does look like we might be either getting ready to consolidate in an area right around here, or perhaps we are trying to turn around and break above the top of the candlestick from the previous week. I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we see consolidation in the short term, mainly due to the fact that it is August, and the volume suddenly disappears as traders are more worried about vacation. Regardless, the one thing I won’t do is try to short this market.

The Euro rallied during the week, but it is worth noting that we are getting a little bit softer over the last couple of weeks, as we continue to just hang out in the 1.16 level. We are still in the midst of consolidation, so I’m not ready to make some big proclamation here, but I would say that if we broke down below the bottom of the candlestick from the previous week, meaning the 1.14 level, that would be very ugly for the euro. On the other hand, if we can break above the 1.18 level, then perhaps we can go much higher.

Silver has been very bullish during the course of the week as we have cleared the $37.50 level again. The $37.50 has been important multiple times on the daily chart and has offered both support and resistance. Because of this, I’m watching that very closely as the market will continue to be very noisy, but I think given enough time we will probably revisit the $40 level. If we can break above the $40 level, then it’s likely that silver will continue to go much higher were to turn around and break down below the $36.50 level, then silver may have some correction ahead.

The British pound has rallied pretty significantly during the trading week as the 1.3250 level has offered a bit of a floor. Ultimately, the market looks as if it will try to get to the 1.3550 level, an area that’s been resistant. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 1.3250 level, then it’s likely that the British pound could drop down to the 50 Week EMA. After that, we could be looking at a move down to the 1.2850 level where the 200 Week EMA currently resides.

The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Mexican peso during the week, but the 19 MXN level has offered a bit of a ceiling. As we close the week, it looks like we are sitting just above the 18.50 MXN level, which opens up the move down to the 17.50 MXN level. Ultimately, this is a pair that could go as low as 16.50 MXN, but it will take some time to get down there. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential continues to favor the Mexican peso, and I think in the environment where the Mexicans were given 90 more days as an extension to tariffs, it will start to feel a bit better about the Mexican economy overall.

The Australian dollar has been bullish during the course of the week, but still finds itself hanging around the 0.6550 level, a place that’s been like a magnet for price all summer. If we turn around a break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the previous week, then it’s possible that the Australian dollar could drop down to the 0.62 level. On the other hand, if we can somehow break above the 0.66 level, then the Australian dollar may have a real shot at going higher. Ultimately, this is a market that has been very choppy and somewhat sideways.

Bitcoin has gone back and forth during the course of the week, after initially pulling back. That being said, we still see the $120,000 level above is a significant barrier, and if we can break above that level, then it’s likely that Bitcoin will continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching the $130,000 level next, as this market does like to move in $10,000 increments. At this point, it looks like the $110,000 level is a bit of a floor.

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• The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a drop in BoE rate cut expectations.

• Nearly half of the BoE officials were ready to keep interest rates unchanged.

• US unemployment claims data further supported rate cut bets.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a drop in BoE rate cut expectations after a divided vote at the last meeting.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD 

The GBP/USD pair ended the week bullish as the pound rallied after an unexpected Bank of England policy meeting. At the same time, the dollar eased amid an increase in Fed rate cut expectations, allowing sterling to climb.

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The BoE cut interest rates as expected last week. However, policymakers had to vote twice before deciding. Nearly half the officials were ready to keep interest rates unchanged due to the high inflation in the UK. As a result, future rate cut expectations fell and the pound rallied. 

Meanwhile, in the US, data on business activity and unemployment claims further supported rate cut bets, weighing on the dollar.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD 

Next week, the UK will release employment figures, manufacturing production, and GDP data. Meanwhile, the US will release inflation and retail sales figures. The UK economy has fared poorly according to recent economic data, especially in the labor market. Another set of downbeat employment figures could increase expectations for more BoE rate cuts, hurting the pound. 

Meanwhile, in the US, rate cut bets have risen sharply due to a slowdown in the labor market. However, bets might drop with another upbeat employment report.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: SMA break signals likely reversal

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 22-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, suggesting stronger bullish momentum. Initially, the price had started showing signs of a downtrend. It broke below the SMA, retested it, and made a lower low. 

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However, at the 1.3151 support, bulls emerged with renewed strength and pushed the price above the SMA. However, bulls must now break above the 1.3451 key level. Such a move would clear the path for the price to retest the 1.3803 resistance level. Meanwhile, a break above this level would resume the previous uptrend. 

However, there is also a chance that the price might fail to break above the 1.3451 resistance. In such a case, the price would drop to retest the 1.3151 support level. A break below would resume the downtrend.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back a little bit against the Japanese yen, only to shoot straight up in the air again. We find ourselves at the all too familiar 148 yen level, an area that’s been important multiple times, and an area that also sees the 200 day EMA hanging around. In other words, this is an area that I think makes a lot of sense that we end up at. And the question now is, can we break above there finally? If and when we do, then I think we could make a move towards the 151 yen level. On a breakdown, the 50 day EMA being broken to the downside opens up the possibility of a drop to the 145 yen level.

USD/USD Technical Analysis

In the Australian dollar, we see the same pattern playing out, we try to rally, but just can’t quite get there. The 0.6550 level continues to be a major magnet for price, but now it’s starting to act as resistance. We had previously been on a somewhat well-defined channel. Now we find ourselves not being able to get back into it. The Asian currencies on the whole, all look a bit suspicious to me. And of course, Australia is right there in the mix as it is one of the most important ones in the region for growth and commodities. So, this to me looks like a market that’s trying to roll back over, but we’ll have to wait and see. 0.6550 is your decision line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The price of (EURUSD) rose in its last intraday trading, amid its continued attempts to gain positive momentum that might assist its recovery and breaching the stubborn resistance at 1.1670, this resistance prevents the recovery in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of minor bullish wave on the short-term basis, with the beginning of the positive signals on the (RSI), besides the continuation of the dynamic support that comes from its trading above EMA50, representing a dynamic support that expands the positive momentum.

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