Platinum price formed some bullish waves, to hit $1355.00 level, to bounce quickly to settle below the barrier at $1342.00 level, affected by stochastic negativity, which approaches from 50 level as appears in the above image.
The stability of this barrier will force the price to delay the bullish attempts, to increase the chances for forming new bearish correctional waves to target $1290.00 level reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00, while breaching it will open the way for activating the bullish attack to target $1366.00 level initially reaching the resistance at $1400.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1290.00 and $1342.00
Despite facing strong bearish pressures and forming sharp decline by targeting 106.70, the main bullish track of the CADJPY remains valid by its stability above 50%Fibonacci correction level, which represents an important support at 106.40.
Note that the possibility of forming sideways trading due to the contradiction between the main indicators, but the stability above the mentioned support will reinforce the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to ease the mission of its rally to 108.10, surpassing this obstacle might extend the trading to the next main target at 109.30.
The expected trading range for today is between 106.50 and 107.90
The GBPJPY pair didn’t settle above the support of the minor bullish channel at 198.70, forcing it to suffer deep losses by its decline to 195.35, facing the moving average 55 that supports the stability of 78.2%Fibonacci correction level as appears in the above image.
Noticing the beginning of forming bullish waves since this morning, but it couldn’t regain the bullish bias until surpassing the obstacle at 196.60, which allows it to resume the rise and achieve extra gains that might extend to 197.05 and 197.40, while the decline below 195.35 and holding below it will confirm its surrender to the bearish bias domination, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching 194.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 195.70 and 196.90
The GBPJPY pair didn’t settle above the support of the minor bullish channel at 198.70, forcing it to suffer deep losses by its decline to 195.35, facing the moving average 55 that supports the stability of 78.2%Fibonacci correction level as appears in the above image.
Noticing the beginning of forming bullish waves since this morning, but it couldn’t regain the bullish bias until surpassing the obstacle at 196.60, which allows it to resume the rise and achieve extra gains that might extend to 197.05 and 197.40, while the decline below 195.35 and holding below it will confirm its surrender to the bearish bias domination, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching 194.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 195.70 and 196.90
GBP/USD trades in a narrow band above 1.3250 on Monday.
GBP/USD snapped a six-day losing streak after weak US jobs data on Friday.
The technical outlook doesn’t yet hint at a bullish reversal.
GBP/USD finds it difficult to attract bulls in the European session on Monday and fluctuates below 1.3300. The pair’s near-term technical outlook doesn’t yet offer any convincing signs of a bullish reversal.
British Pound PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies last 7 days. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
1.71%
1.13%
0.07%
0.53%
1.50%
1.75%
1.49%
EUR
-1.71%
-0.60%
-1.57%
-1.16%
-0.20%
0.04%
-0.22%
GBP
-1.13%
0.60%
-1.16%
-0.56%
0.40%
0.65%
0.38%
JPY
-0.07%
1.57%
1.16%
0.46%
1.37%
1.65%
1.54%
CAD
-0.53%
1.16%
0.56%
-0.46%
0.93%
1.22%
0.95%
AUD
-1.50%
0.20%
-0.40%
-1.37%
-0.93%
0.24%
-0.02%
NZD
-1.75%
-0.04%
-0.65%
-1.65%
-1.22%
-0.24%
-0.26%
CHF
-1.49%
0.22%
-0.38%
-1.54%
-0.95%
0.02%
0.26%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) helped GBP/USD gain traction and allowed the pair to snap a six-day losing streak.
The monthly data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 73,000 in July, missing analysts’ estimate of 110,000, while the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.2% from 4.1%, as expected. More importantly, the BLS announced that it revised down May and June NFP increases, noting that NFP growth in this two-month period combined was 258,000 lower than previously reported.
The probability of a 25 basis points Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September jumped above 70% from about 30% before the data, as per CME FedWatch Tool. In turn, the USD weakened sharply against its peers.
The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier macroeconomic data releases on Monday. Later in the week, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce monetary policy decisions.
In the meantime, market participants will keep a close eye on US politics. Following the dismal employment report, US President Donald Trump fired BLS Chief Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating the numbers for political purposes. Additionally, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, whose term was scheduled to end on January 31, 2026, announced her resignation.
Investors could opt to stay away from the USD in case political developments feed into concerns over the Fed or the BLS losing independence.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 and GBP/USD remains within the one-month-old descending regression channel, suggesting that the bearish bias remains intact following Friday’s rebound.
On the downside, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as interim support at 1.3250 ahead of 1.3200 (static level, round level) and 1.3140 (lower limit of the descending channel).
Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3300 (static level, round level), 1.3330 (former support level) and 1.3370 (50-period SMA).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The USD/JPY forecast indicates a slight recovery in the dollar.
The economy added only 73,000 jobs in July.
The BoJ has been more confident in talks of resuming rate hikes.
The USD/JPY forecast indicates a slight recovery in the dollar after a steep decline in the previous session due to downbeat employment numbers. Meanwhile, the yen found support in talks of the BoJ continuing its monetary tightening.
The dollar had a bad end to the week after the US released a downbeat monthly employment report. The economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, missing the forecast of 106,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. Meanwhile, figures for the previous two months were revised sharply lower. Consequently, market and expert expectations for a September rate cut jumped.
“We pull forward our baseline call for a 25 bps cut from the FOMC to September,” said David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group.
“While we don’t see significant further weakness in the labour market, the results of this report are likely to shift the FOMC’s assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook.”
Meanwhile, since the US-Japan trade deal, the BoJ has been more confident in talks of resuming rate hikes. This has supported the yen. However, the timing for hikes remains a mystery.
USD/JPY key events today
Market participants do not expect high-impact releases from Japan or the US. Therefore, the pair might have a slow start to the week.
USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears take a break after SMA break
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is recovering after a steep collapse on Friday. However, the price still trades far below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum.
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Initially, bulls were in the lead, and the price had broken above the 149.01 key resistance level. However, bears appeared suddenly as the rally neared the 151.01 key level. The price made a solid bearish candle that broke back below the 149.01 level and the 30-SMA. This signaled a shift in sentiment. Since then, the price has made fresh lows below the SMA.
A pullback might retest the SMA and the 149.01 level before the new downtrend continues. In this case, USD/JPY might soon retest the 146.00 support level.
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EUR/USD trades in a tight channel below 1.1600 on Monday.
The US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure after US employment data.
The technical outlook highlights sellers’ hesitancy in the near term.
After spending the majority of the previous week under heavy selling pressure, EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum on Friday and gained about 1.5% on a daily basis. The pair stays in a consolidation phase below 1.1600 in the European morning on Monday.
Euro PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
1.59%
1.08%
-0.07%
0.44%
1.43%
1.70%
1.30%
EUR
-1.59%
-0.53%
-1.61%
-1.14%
-0.16%
0.10%
-0.29%
GBP
-1.08%
0.53%
-1.26%
-0.61%
0.37%
0.64%
0.24%
JPY
0.07%
1.61%
1.26%
0.52%
1.47%
1.77%
1.53%
CAD
-0.44%
1.14%
0.61%
-0.52%
0.96%
1.26%
0.86%
AUD
-1.43%
0.16%
-0.37%
-1.47%
-0.96%
0.26%
-0.13%
NZD
-1.70%
-0.10%
-0.64%
-1.77%
-1.26%
-0.26%
-0.39%
CHF
-1.30%
0.29%
-0.24%
-1.53%
-0.86%
0.13%
0.39%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The dismal July employment report from the US triggered a US Dollar (USD) selloff ahead of the weekend, fuelling a rally in EUR/USD.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 73,000 in July, missing analysts’ estimate of 110,000. On a more concerning note, the BSL revised down May and June NFP increases by 125,000 and 133,000, respectively.
In response, US President Donald Trump fired BLS Chief Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating the numbers for political purposes.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September jumped above 70% from about 30% before the data, weighing on US Treasury bond yields and the USD.
June Factory Orders will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar on Monday, which is unlikely to trigger a market reaction.
Meanwhile, investors will pay close attention to political developments in the US. US President Donald Trump is expected to announce a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who decided to resign. Kugler’s term was scheduled to end on January 31, 2026.
In case markets grown increasingly concerned about the Fed and the BLS losing independence, the USD could have a difficult time staying resilient against its rivals.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 50, highlighting sellers’ hesitancy. However, EUR/USD remains below the 50-period, 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting that buyers are yet to be convinced of a steady rebound.
On the upside, 1.1630 (100-period SMA) aligns as the first resistance before 1.1650-1.1660 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 200-period SMA) and 1.1700 (static level, round level). Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.1540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.1500 (static level, round level) ad 1.1450 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.
A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.
The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.
NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.
Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.
Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components.
At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.
The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
The British pound collapsed pretty significantly against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday, slicing through the crucial ¥198 level, an area that short-term traders have been watching very closely.
Because of this, I think it suggests that perhaps market participants are going more “risk off”, as the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is obviously in a state of flux as we just printed a massive red candlestick. A nasty red candlestick for the trading session on Friday might be enough to entice buyers, but quite frankly I think it’s asking a lot for markets to suddenly turn around. It’s very possible that the British pound could drop to the 200 Day EMA which is at the ¥194.23 level, before bouncing again. It’ll be interesting to see if that actually plays out, but I also recognize that a lot of this comes down to risk appetite overall.
The ¥198 level above probably ends up being a major barrier, but if we can break above there then we will threaten the ¥200 level again. Keep in mind that the area in the 200 point range has been resistant a couple of times in the past, so one has to ask questions as to whether or not we just found the top of a longer-term consolidation area that might hold. If we break down below the 200 Day EMA, we could very well see this market drop down to the ¥187.50 level, maybe even as low as the ¥184.50 level. This will almost certainly have everything to do with risk appetite and the overall attitude of markets in general. After all, there are a lot of different things going on at the same time, and this does have a lot of traders somewhat concerned. Ultimately, I think we’ve got a situation where traders are looking at this through the prism of a wondering whether or not the markets are about to see a major shift in attitude.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
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The GBP/USD weekly forecast suggests further downside.
The US economy grew by 3.0%, compared to the forecast of 2.5%.
The dollar retreated on Friday after data revealed slower-than-expected job growth in July.
The GBP/USD weekly forecast suggests further downside as market participants prepare for a Bank of England rate cut.
Ups and downs of GBP/USD
The GBP/USD price had a bearish week as the dollar strengthened on upbeat data and higher tariffs. However, there was a pullback after the nonfarm payrolls report.
At the start of the week, data revealed solid private employment. At the same time, the economy grew by 3.0%, compared to the forecast of 2.5%. The data boosted the dollar. Moreover, Trump imposed higher tariffs on several countries, which sent Treasury yields and the dollar higher.
However, the dollar retreated on Friday after data revealed slower-than-expected job growth in July.
Next week’s key events for GBP/USD
Next week’s calendar for GBP/USD is quite light. Market participants will focus on the Bank of England policy meeting, where the central bank might cut interest rates by 25-bps. The pound had a bad month in July as traders worried about the state of the UK economy.
Despite being among the first countries to sign a trade deal with the US, the UK’s currency has suffered amid poor economic data. The weak reports have led to an increase in expectations for Bank of England rate cuts.
GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Lower low confirms new downtrend
GBP/USD daily chart
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades well below the 22-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. At the same time, the price recently broke below the 1.3402 support level to form a lower low. This confirms a bearish trend.
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Previously, the price was in a bullish trend that paused near the 1.3803 key level. Bears took charge by breaking below the 22-SMA and respecting it as resistance. The bearish bias is strong, especially since the price has confirmed a new downtrend.
Currently, the price has paused after making a lower low. It might pull back to retest the recently broken 1.3402 level before dropping to fresh lows. The next target for GBP/USD is at the 1.3001 key support level. A break below will strengthen the bearish bias.
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