USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has gotten slammed against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Friday as well, as now it looks like the reaction is going to cause chaos. That being said, I think there’s still support underneath, and I think it’s only a matter of time before the support could come into the picture at the 200 day EMA and the 148 yen level, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. If we turn around and start rallying again, we could go looking at the 151 yen level. At this point, I still prefer the upside for now, but we’ll see how this plays out over the next couple of days.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied and looked like it’s going to try to break the top of an inverted hammer. We’ll have to wait and see how this closes. But if it closes above the 50 day EMA, that would be a bullish sign for the Aussie. That being said, if the job situation in the United States continues to deteriorate, that actually quite often will make the US dollar stronger over the longer term because people run into buy treasuries. If the US jobs numbers and the job market starts to crumble, the rest of the world goes with it.

Typically, what we see is a month or two of strength in other places and then it starts to show up in their economy. There’s an old adage that says, when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. I’ve been told multiple times in the last 18 years that that’s no longer true. And every time it happens, it ends up being true. So do keep that in mind. I think strength in other currencies could be a short-term thing. I can really see that environment. But over the longer term, if this keeps up, people run to the Treasury market, so keep that in mind.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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The price of (EURUSD) rose slightly in its last intraday trading, attempting to recover its early losses, to offload some of its clear oversold levels on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of positive signals that reinforce the chances for intraday stability.

This limited rise comes amid the continuation of the dominance of bearish correctional wave, indicating the superiority of the selling powers on the trading in the near-term basis, imposing restrictions on any attempts for recovery.

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– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Surges Against Dollar as US Jobs Slows Sharply

The US Dollar dived after the latest US jobs data, and the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate recovered from 10-week lows near 1.3140 to just above the 1.3300 level in an immediate reaction.

Another important element, however, was a decline in equity markets and a weaker tone surrounding risk appetite with unease over US tariff developments amplifying the impact of the jobs shock.

Weaker risk appetite hampered the Pound in global markets and GBP/USD settled around 1.3265.

The latest US jobs data recorded an increase in July non-farm payrolls of 73,000 compared with market expectations of just over 100,000.

There were big revisions with the June increase downgraded to 14,000 from the provisional reading of 147,000.

For May and June, there was a huge downward revision of 258,000 jobs.

ING commented; “This puts a completely different light on what has been happening in the US economy post the 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ announcements.”

The latest ISM manufacturing business confidence data was also weaker than expected, increasing reservations over the outlook.

There has been a big shift in expectations surrounding Fed policy with markets now pricing in close to an 80% chance that rates will be cut at the September meeting compared with less than 40% ahead of the data which undermined the dollar.

Markets had been broadly unruffled by the latest tariff developments, but the payrolls revisions put a slightly different perspective on the outlook.

Trump pressure on Fed Chair Powell is also likely to intensify.

“The July employment report was a dud. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 73K in July, short of expectations and coming on the heels of sharp downward revisions to the prior two months” say economists at Wells Fargo.

“The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and the labor force participation rate ticked lower for the third straight month,” added Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo.

“Coming into today’s report, our base case forecast was that the FOMC would cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps at its September, October and December meetings, with no additional rate cuts in 2026. Based on today’s data, we are inclined to leave that projection unchanged for now.”

The latest US jobs data delivered a stark reassessment of recent labour market strength.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on August 01, 2025

• Taking a look at the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the US dollar has initially fallen during the trading session on Thursday, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that there was a Bank of Japan meeting.
• So, people were a bit cautious. That being said, we turned around to show signs of life, and now we have exploded towards the 150.5 yen level.
• If we can break above the 151 yen level, then I think the US dollar really starts to take off against the Japanese yen, as the yen itself is in serious trouble from what I can see.

Measured Move Coming?

If you take the measured move of the previous ascending triangle that we broke out of, we’re probably looking at about 156.5 yen, all things being equal though. I think this is a situation where any pullback that we get will end up being a buying opportunity as the federal reserve looks likely to remain somewhat tight while the Japanese central bank has no choice but to be loose, as the bond market in Japan is in trouble recently. That being said, the jobs number on Friday morning may cause a bit of a pullback.

I look at that as an opportunity to get long yet again. I’ve got no interest whatsoever in shorting. I do think that the 148 yen level, which is also the two hundred day EMA will offer a significant amount of support. Again, I won’t short this pair.

I believe that the us dollar is making a huge turnaround against most currencies, and the Japanese yen is especially vulnerable at this point in time. However, I also expect to see that the US dollar will more likely than not move in the same direction against almost everything.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on August 01, 2025

• The Euro rallied just a touch during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
• The market has recently seen a whole lot of downward pressure, especially now that the Federal Reserve seems to be more hawkish than anticipated, and therefore it’s likely that the US dollar will continue to be stronger overall.
• Contrast that with the Euro, which has seen a trade deal with the United States, which quite frankly, is not very good for Europe.

Breakdown?

Because of this, we have to ask the question as to whether or not we are about to see a breakdown. The market broke down below the 1.15 level, and the 50 Day EMA, both of which are very negative turns of event. The market being sub 1.15 is rather telling, and I think you’ve got a situation where people are going to be looking for some type of continuation. The jobs number on Friday could be the next catalyst, we don’t know, but quite frankly if the jobs number comes out hotter than anticipated, this will be yet another reason to think that the Federal Reserve will stay hawkish and stay away from cutting rates. On the other hand, the Europeans have to deal with quite a bit of energy dependence on the United States, and that’s something that we may have to watch from a longer-term standpoint.

On the other hand, if we were to break out to the upside, it’s not until we recapture the 50 Day EMA at the very least that I would consider buying. In that environment, we would probably see the US dollar drop significantly against most currencies, not just the Euro. Ultimately, this is a situation where it’s likely that the Euro would just be benefiting from US dollar weakness rather than any real strength at that point. Ultimately, I think this is a market that continues lower if the jobs number comes out significantly higher than the expected 106,000 jobs added in the United States.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Copper price continued to form bearish trading, to reach the target at $4.2600 forming an intraday support against the current trading, despite the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, the attempt of providing negative momentum from the main indicators that might push the price to press on the current support, while breaking it will extend the losses to $4.1600 reaching the support of the bullish channel at $4.0550.

Reminding you that activating the bullish attack again requires forming several bullish waves, to settle above $4.7400 level, to ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at $4.9800.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.1600 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price continued to form bearish trading, to reach the target at $4.2600 forming an intraday support against the current trading, despite the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, the attempt of providing negative momentum from the main indicators that might push the price to press on the current support, while breaking it will extend the losses to $4.1600 reaching the support of the bullish channel at $4.0550.

Reminding you that activating the bullish attack again requires forming several bullish waves, to settle above $4.7400 level, to ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at $4.9800.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.1600 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP “Should be Trading Above 1.1765”

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is trading at around 1.15637 on Thursday, as Sterling underperforms against the majors, including the US Dollar.

Credit Agricole, however, sees scope for a further GBP/EUR rebound and added; “Looking at yield spreads, the bank considers that GBP/EUR should be trading above 1.1765.”

Scotiabank noted the potential for further position adjustment; “Extended bullish positioning has also left the EUR vulnerable to adjustment, as shown in the most recent CFTC report that saw the sizeable $18.4bn EUR long hold steady at the upper end of its historical range.”

There are still reservations over Pound fundamentals which will tend to curb the scope for further buying.

Markets remain very confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% next week.

The BoE data on Tuesday recorded a stronger pace of consumer lending for June. RSM UK chief economist Thomas Pugh commented; “Overall, money and credit data give a tentative sign of consumer spending picking up a little, and of business sentiment improving, however, growth will still be weak in Q2.”

He added; “For now, the MPC is likely to focus on that weaker growth outlook, meaning a rate cut in August is the odds-on bet.”

Credit Agricole notes that several price increases have already been priced in and commented; “We therefore believe that many BoE-related negatives are in the price of the GBP and do not expect the currency to extend its recent downtrend.”

It added; “The conclusion is consistent with our recent FX positioning data that suggests that the GBP is starting to look oversold and the results from our short-term fair value model that signalled that EUR/GBP is looking expensive at current levels.”

As far as Euro-Zone data is concerned, German GDP recorded a 0.1% contraction for the second quarter of 2025 after 0.4% growth previously which was in line with consensus forecasts. Year-on-year growth of 0.4% was above expectations of 0.2%.

ING commented; “All in all, despite the recent optimism, today’s GDP data is a painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth. The economy’s flirtation with yet another year of stagnation continues.”

Italy also recorded 0.1% GDP contraction for the second quarter.

The Euro-Zone recorded 0.1% GDP growth for the second quarter, marginally above consensus forecasts of no change with year-on-year growth of 1.4%.

Elsewhere, the headline Spanish inflation rate increased to 2.7% for July from 2.3% previously and above consensus forecasts of 2.3%.

The Euro-Zone business and consumer survey recorded an increase to a 5-month high of 95.8 for July from 94.2 in June and above expectations of 94.5.

The Euro-Zone inflation data is due on Friday with expectations that the headline rate will edge lower to 1.9% from 2.0% in June.

Higher inflation would tend to discourage further interest rate cuts and offer some Euro support.

Trade developments will continue to be monitored closely and could still spark increased volatility.

MUFG noted that there are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the US-EU trade deal as it is still a political declaration rather than an economic agreement at this stage. This could lead to renewed volatility in global markets.

According to the bank; “So, it’s clear from this deal and the lack of detail in parts of the US-Japan deal that ongoing negotiations are likely which may well include renewed threats in the future over tariff rates.”

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• USD/JPY reverses an intraday dip led by upbeat data from Japan and the BoJ’s hawkish pause.
• The uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike continues to undermine the JPY.
• Reduced bets for a September rate cut by the Fed act as a tailwind for the USD and spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair attracted fresh buyers following an intraday slide to the 148.60-148.55 region and touched its highest level since early April during the first half of the European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on its gains, led by the upbeat domestic macro data and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish pause. This, along with the underlying US Dollar (USD) bullish sentiment, turns out to be a key factors acting as a tailwind for the currency pair.

A preliminary government report showed that Industrial Production in Japan unexpectedly rose 1.7% from the previous month in June, signaling resilience among manufacturers despite headwinds from US trade tariffs. A separate report revealed that Retail Sales in Japan grew for the 39th consecutive month, by 2.0% year-on-year in June, compared to the previous month’s downwardly revised reading of 1.9% and better than market expectations. The latter suggested that private consumption in Japan remained strong, which, along with the US-Japan trade deal, keeps hopes alive for the BoJ rate hike later this year.

In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking to reporters during the post-meeting press conference, said that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately and that the US-Japan trade deal reduces uncertainty over the economic outlook. Earlier, the central bank, as was expected, decided to maintain the status quo at the end of the July meeting. In the accompanying policy statement, the BoJ reiterated that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast. Adding to this, an upward revision of the BoJ’s inflation forecast revived bets for a further monetary policy tightening by the year-end.

The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be limited amid the growing acceptance that signs of cooling inflation in Japan and political uncertainty would complicate the BoJ’s policy normalization path. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s loss in the July 20 polls fueled concerns about Japan’s fiscal health amid calls from the opposition to boost spending and cut taxes. This suggests that prospects for BoJ rate hikes could be delayed for a bit longer. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell tempered hopes for an immediate rate cut, which favours the USD bulls and supports the USD/JPY pair.

In fact, Powell said it was too soon to say whether the Fed would cut rates at its next meeting and that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy has not been holding back the economy. Earlier on Wednesday, the US central bank left interest rates unchanged in a split decision that saw two governors dissenting for the first time since 1993. The market focus now shifts to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later during the North American session. The crucial inflation data will influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY daily chart

Technical Outlook

The USD/JPY pair is now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and could aim to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark amid positive oscillators on the daily chart. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the 150.40 area before spot prices eventually climb to the 151.00 round figure.

On the flip side, the 149.00 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further corrective slide might continue to attract dip-buyers and find decent support near the 148.55 region. A convincing break below the latter, however, could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 148.00 mark and the overnight swing low, around the 147.80 area. Some follow-through selling would expose the 147.00 mark and the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 146.70 region. The latter coincides with last week’s swing low, which, if broken, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.