The CADCHF pair declined in its last intraday levels, to gather the gains of its previous rises, attempting to gather bullish momentum that might assist it to breach the critical resistance at 173.25, and attempting to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of negative overlapping signals appearance, amid the continuation of the positive support due to its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (CADCHF) price in its upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by breaching the mentioned resistance at 173.25 initially, to target its next resistance at 174.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.85 support and 173.80 resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

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July 25, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: Long-term GBP/USD Uptrend Faltering Again?

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate pushed to a peak just below 1.3590 before a retreat to near 1.3550.

The latest UK data triggered some fresh unease over the outlook and hampered the Pound, but dollar confidence remained weak amid signs of higher inflation which would intensify the debate surrounding Federal Reserve policy.

Scotiabank considers that the long-term GBP/USD uptrend could be faltering again and added; “We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3500 support and 1.3580 resistance.”

According to UoB; “Although the outlook for GBP remains positive, short-term conditions are deeply overbought, and the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to come into view so soon.”

On a longer-term view, Danske Bank expects that GBP/USD will creep higher to 1.38 on a 12-month view.

As far as UK data is concerned, the UK PMI manufacturing index edged higher to a 6-month high of 48.2 for July from 47.7 previously and just above consensus forecasts.

The services-sector index, however, dipped to a 2-month low of 51.2 from 52.8 in June and compared with expectations of no change for the month.

The CBI industrial trends index improved slightly to -30 for July from -33 previously, but this was below consensus forecasts of -27 and indicated further stresses in the manufacturing sector.

The ONS also reported that UK vehicle production in the first half of 2025 slumped to the lowest level since 1953.

The issue of US interest rates and Fed independence will remain a key market concern.

Markets remain very confident that there will be no change in interest rates at next week’s meeting and the potential for a September rate cut has also drifted lower to near 35%.

There are still important concerns surrounding political pressure on the Fed with the future of Chair Powell still a major talking point.

There has been further speculation that the Administration will find a pretext to dismiss Powell or undermine his authority.

Rabobank commented; “Later today, Trump will visit the Fed to take a look at the construction site where the $2.5 billion renovation project is taking place that could become the “cause” that the Trump administration is looking for to fire Powell if they want to get rid of him before his term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026. That should certainly move the process to find a new Chair into high gear.”

The latest US data will complicate the argument surrounding Federal Reserve policy and Administration demands for lower interest rates.

The PMI manufacturing index dipped to a 7-month low of 49.5 for July from 52.9 and below consensus forecasts of 52.7.

The services-sector index, however, increased to a 7-month high of 55.2 from 52.9 in June.

Overall business confidence dipped again with the second-weakest reading for 30 months.

Costs increased at the second-highest rate since January 2023 while output charges increased at the second-highest rate since September 2022.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence noted a strong start to the third quarter, but commented; “Whether this growth can be sustained is by no means assured. Growth was worryingly uneven and overly reliant on the services economy.”

On inflation, he added; “The rise in selling prices for goods and services in July suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the coming months as these price hikes feed through to households.”

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has raised higher against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday to touch the 148 yen level and by extension, the 200 day EMA. This is a market that I do think breaks out eventually, but as things stand right now, it is rather difficult to get above here. If we do, then the 149 yen level is your next target. Anything above there opens up the floodgates. I expect to see that sooner or later, I just don’t know if we’ll see it right at this moment.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen yet again against the US dollar to reach the 0.6550 region yet again. We are in a fairly obvious uptrending channel, we are right in the middle of it, so this is about as neutral as it gets. Longer term, it does look like we want to go higher, but it’s more of a grind, it’s not really a huge move that I think it is going to push this market, I think it’s going to lull people to sleep for some time. And in fact, if you draw the channel out a little bit, maybe make it a little bit longer in time, you can even make an argument that we’re just continuing the same channel we were in before that big dip in early April, with the tariffs being announced.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday trading, to attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of the negative signals emergence, to gather its positive strength that might assist it to recover and rise again, leaning on the support of its EMA50, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bullish bias that supports this trend.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in the upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at $3,500, to target the critical resistance level at $3,800.

The expected trading range is between $3,450 support and $3,800 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

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The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday trading, to attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of the negative signals emergence, to gather its positive strength that might assist it to recover and rise again, leaning on the support of its EMA50, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bullish bias that supports this trend.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in the upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at $3,500, to target the critical resistance level at $3,800.

The expected trading range is between $3,450 support and $3,800 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

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Copper price declined in its last intraday trading, due to the stability of the resistance level at $5.89, attempting to look for a rising low to take it as a base that might assist it to gain the required positive momentum to help it to breach this resistance, to lean on the support of a minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, amid the continuation of the positive pressure that comes from its trading above EMA50, besides the (RSI) reach to oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, suggesting the beginning of forming positive divergence, intensifying the positive pressure on the price.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its intraday trading, especially when breaching the mentioned resistance at $5.89, to target the next resistance level at $6.1820.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7344 and $6.0500

Trend forecast: Bullish

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• GBP/USD trades in negative territory below 1.3500 after posting losses on Thursday.
• The technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish momentum in the short term.
• Retail Sales in the UK rose at a softer pace than expected in June.

GBP/USD came under bearish pressure on Thursday and lost more than 0.5%, snapping a three-day winning streak in the process. The pair extends its slide on Friday and trades below 1.3500.

The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength weighed on GBP/USD on Thursday. The US Department of Labor reported that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined to 217,000 in the week ending July 19 from 221,000 in the previous week. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 227,000. Additionally, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 54.6 (preliminary) in July from 52.9 in June, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the private sector’s business activity, at an accelerating pace.

Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP cross rose more than 0.3% on Thursday as the Euro benefited from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious tone on policy-easing. EUR/GBP preserves its bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since early April above 0.8700 on Friday, suggesting that the Euro continues to capture capital outflows out of Pound Sterling.

Early Friday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales rose by 0.9% on a monthly basis in June. This reading followed the 2.8% decrease recorded in May but came in worse than the market expectation for an increase of 1.2%, making it difficult for GBP/USD to stage a rebound.

In the second half of the day, Durable Goods Orders data for June will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar. Nevertheless, this data is unlikely to have a long-lasting impact on the USD’s valuation.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD broke below the 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator dropped below 40, pointing to a bearish tilt in the near term.

In case GBP/USD confirms 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) as resistance, 1.3400 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be seen as the next support level before 1.3340. On the upside, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3520 (100-period SMA) and 1.3540-1.3550 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).

• The US dollar initially fell during the trading session on Thursday but then found enough support near the 50-day EMA to really get things moving and open up the possibility of a rebound.
• The 50-day EMA sits right there at the 146 yen level as well, and I think that is something worth noting and maybe even something you can use in your analysis.

Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time, I believe probably opens up the possibility of a move towards the 200 day EMA, which sits right around the 148 yen level. This is how I have been approaching it. The market participants out there will continue to look at this through the prism of interest rate differential over the longer term, and with so much foreign capital flowing into the United States, it does make a certain amount of sense that the US dollar benefits against the Japanese yen specifically. That being said, if we break the 148 yen level, it then opens up the possibility of a move to the 149 yen level where we had peaked recently. I would anticipate a lot of issues in that area if we can get there.

On a Move Lower

A breakdown below the 50 day EMA opens up the possibility of a move down to the 144 yen level, but that’s not necessarily something that I’m looking for at the moment. I recognize this is a market that will probably continue to be very noisy and choppy, but that is typical for this pair regardless.

So with that, I like this buying of the dip as we had tried to break out, but overall, I think this is probably more of a grind to the upside and it will take significant time to reach its destination.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

July 24, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Sterling Pressured by Weak UK PMI, Upbeat US Labour Figures

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate lost ground on Thursday following the release of the UK’s latest PMI data and the US’s initial jobless claims and PMIs.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3539, down roughly 0.3% from the start of Thursday’s session.

The Pound (GBP) stumbled against its peers on Thursday as lacklustre UK PMI data for July weighed heavily on the currency.

Although the manufacturing sector showed a modest improvement, with the index rising from 47.7 to 48.2, it remained stuck in contraction territory (a reading below 50), and failed to inspire investor confidence.

However, it was the disappointing services PMI that proved most damaging to Sterling on Thursday.

As the UK’s largest economic sector, services play a vital role in shaping overall growth.

July’s flash reading unexpectedly dropped to 51.2 from 52.8, falling short of the projected uptick to 53, and sparked concerns about slowing momentum in the economy.

This underwhelming performance prompted traders to increase bets on an interest rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE), a shift in sentiment that saw GBP retreat across the board as the session progressed.

The US Dollar (USD) advanced against several major peers on Thursday, buoyed by stronger-than-expected labour market data.

Initial jobless claims dipped to 217,000 in the week ending 19 July, beating expectations for a rise to 227,000.

The decline signalled ongoing resilience in the US jobs market and lent early support to the ‘Greenback’.

Later in the day, the US published its latest S&P Global flash PMIs for July.

The services index surprised to the upside, jumping from 52.9 to 55.2 and suggested solid momentum in the service sector.

However, gains were tempered by a weaker manufacturing print, which fell into contraction territory for the first time this year, slipping to 49.5 against forecasts of 52.6.

Despite the mixed PMI release, the US Dollar maintained its positive footing throughout the remainder of the session.

Looking ahead to Friday, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be shaped by a pair of key economic releases from the UK and the US.

For the UK, focus will fall on June’s retail sales figures.

Economists are forecasting a rebound, with sales expected to rise by 1.2% following the sharp 2.7% contraction seen in May.

A strong print would suggest that consumer activity is picking up, which may boost confidence in the UK’s economic outlook and lend support to the Pound heading into the weekend.

Across the Atlantic, the spotlight will be on the US’s latest durable goods orders.

After a sharp jump in May, orders are forecast to slump by 10.8% in June.

If the data matches expectations, it could weigh heavily on the US Dollar by fuelling concerns about a slowdown in broader economic momentum.

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July 24, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Can EUR/USD Challenge 45-Month Best?

The dollar posted sharp losses on Tuesday with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate surging to 2-week highs just above 1.1750 before settling just below this level with Administration rhetoric against Federal Reserve still sapping support while there is solid underlying Euro demand.

According to UoB, the Euro is looking a bit stretched; “While there is potential for EUR to rise above 1.1765 today, overbought conditions suggest it might not be able to hold above this level.”

ING is not convinced that EUR/USD can hold above 1.1700.

Danske Bank maintains a positive long-term outlook on EUR/USD for a move above 1.20 for the first time since June 2021; “While EU-US trade negotiations may introduce near-term volatility, long-term drivers such as relative rates, capital flows into European assets, and global monetary conditions continue to support the cross.”

Overnight, President Trump announced that the US had reached a framework trade deal with Japan.

There will be a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US while Japan has committed to purchases of aircraft and rice.

Japan also pledged a $550bn sovereign wealth fund to invest in the US, although there will be scepticism that this will make much headway.

ING discusses the weak dollar performance. It noted the possibility that trade jitters were a significant factor in undermining the currency, but considers that the overall price action makes this unlikely.

According to the bank; “This week’s losses could somehow represent a catch-up with some lower US yields seen last week or merely represent some investor re-allocation out of the US and into say Europe or Emerging Markets on a global growth play.”

It added; “we suspect that EUR/USD demand is related to the ongoing rotation out of assets in the equity, government bond and credit space. Indeed, news from the credit space is that global investors are showing a keener interest in euro-denominated products, and issuers are obliging.”

Federal Reserve policy and the threat of political intimidation remains an important underlying market element.

There has been some walking back from calls for Fed Chair Powell’s immediate departure, but no let-up in attacks on Fed policy.

In comments on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that there was no need for Powell to step down immediately as he will be leaving in May anyway.

Markets are still concerned that Powell is under threat.

Schwab senior fixed income strategist Kathy Jones commented; “You can criticize the Fed for many of its policy moves over the years. But pushing the Fed chair out because he won’t follow White House instructions is a step too far.”

She added; “It will undermine confidence in the central bank at a time when inflation is still too high, and policy is a confusing mix of priorities. If Powell is replaced by someone who is seen as doing the administration’s bidding, it would likely lead to a weaker dollar and much higher long-term interest rates.”

There are very strong expectations that the ECB will leave interest rates at 2.00% on Thursday with guidance likely to be crucial for the market reaction.

According to ING, there is some risk of a Euro retreat; “We think a relatively quiet July meeting could feature some heightened scrutiny on how comfortable policymakers would be with another euro rally. FX considerations may not make their way to official communication, but could help tilt the balance to a more dovish overall tone.”

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