July 23, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: “GBP Outlook Shifted from Negative to Neutral”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was unable to regain 1.3500 on Tuesday and consolidated around 1.3480 after Monday’s significant recovery.

UoB commented; “The outlook for GBP has shifted from negative to neutral; GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3415 and 1.3535.”

According to Scotiabank; “we see a near-term range bound between 1.3450 support and 1.3520 resistance.”

The latest UK government borrowing data dented Pound sentiment, although the overall impact has been limited at this stage.

Longer-term, Credit Agricole has a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.37 from 1.40 previously.

The June UK budget deficit increased sharply to £20.7bn for June from £14.1bn the previous year, above consensus forecasts of £17.4bn and the second-highest June deficit on record.

One major contributory component was debt interest payments which more than doubled to £16.4bn from £8.0bn the previous year.

Monex commented on the headline data; “These overshot expectations yet again, a fact that should refocus minds on UK fiscal sustainability risks.”

It added; “As we have noted previously, this is not a sterling positive dynamic, leaving risks to the pound tilted to the downside ahead of Thursday’s PMI release.”

Saxo UK investor strategist Neil Wilson expects Autumn tax hikes and is focussing on the bond market reaction.

The 10-year yield has retreated to near 4.61% from earlier highs around 4.65% with the 30-year yield around 5.44%

According to Wilson; “we’re not yet back to yesterday’s highs so nothing to get jumpy about. But I do worry that we could see bond vigilantes hit gilts this autumn.”

Overall financial conditions will be a key element for both the dollar and Pound.

Scotiabank detects some warnings from US equity-market conditions; “it is clear that NYSE market breadth remains pretty poor—fewer stocks are driving broader index gains—which is not a great sign of health and we are right on the cusp of that time of the year when US equities typically hit a bit of an air pocket.”

The relationship between equities and the dollar fluctuates and is complex.

According to Scotiabank; “FX correlations with risk have normalized after an extended period in the spring when the USD tended to weaken with softer USD-denominated assets. But volatility might still be a test for the USD.”

The FTSE 100 index is testing record high, underpinning the Pound for now, but any slide in global equities would pose a threat to the Pound.

US trade developments will continue to be watched closely ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline with a high degree of uncertainty whether the Administration will look to extend deadlines.

Macquarie Group global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman commented; “Nothing that happens on August 1 is necessarily permanent, so long as the U.S. administration remains willing to talk, as was indicated in Trump’s letters from two weeks ago.”

Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics looked at the interest rate implications; “Our base case remains that solid U.S. data and a tariff- driven rebound in inflation will keep the FOMC on hold into 2026, and that the resulting shift in interest rate differentials will drive a continued rebound in the dollar in the next few months”

He added; “But that view is clearly at the mercy of the White House’s whims.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the value of exports for US-bound motor vehicles plunged 26.7% YoY in June despite actual exports rising 3.4%. Economists attributed the sharp fall in exports to carmakers slashing prices to offset the existing 25% auto tariff.

Notably, transport equipment (including cars) accounted for 22.7% of Japan’s total exports in June, underscoring the significance of the sector for the economy.

Falling export prices impact corporate profit margins, potentially impacting Japan’s labor market. Given the auto sector accounts for around 8% of Japan’s total workforce, sector-wide job losses could weigh on consumer sentiment and spending, further affecting the economy.

A deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop would likely close the door on a 2025 BoJ rate hike. A less hawkish BoJ policy stance could weigh on appetite for the Yen. On the other hand, a favorable trade deal may revive bets on a BoJ rate hike.

BoJ Chatter and Rate Hike Rhetoric in Focus

While trade talks take center stage, traders should monitor BoJ commentary for clues on the effects of tariffs on the rate path. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is slated to speak on Wednesday, July 23. Views on recent inflation numbers, the effect of US tariffs on trade terms, and the timeline for further policy tightening would move the dial.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook: Housing Sector and the US Dollar

Later in the session on Wednesday, US housing sector data will give traders a snapshot of the US economy. Economists forecast monthly existing home sales to fall 0.7% in June after rising 0.8% in May.

The GBPJPY pair rose in its last intraday levels, affected by its lean on the support of minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, gaining positive momentum, accompanied by the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, attempting to surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50, announcing its full recovery.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise of (GBPJPY) in its upcoming intraday trading, if the support settles at 198.70, to target the critical resistance level at 199.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.75 and 199.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

July 22, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Slips as Deficit Fears Wobble Sterling

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate initially slipped on Tuesday before bouncing back following the latest UK borrowing figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3493, having rebounded quickly from its initial dip.

The Pound (GBP) wobbled on Tuesday after UK public sector borrowing for June came in at £20.7bn – well above forecasts of £15.6bn and the highest since April 2021. Weaker tax revenues and elevated debt servicing costs drove the shortfall, fuelling concerns over potential tax hikes in the autumn.

Sterling initially slipped as investors digested the figures, but GBP/USD later rebounded after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) offered reassurance. The OBR noted that borrowing for the April–June quarter is ‘exactly in line’ with its March forecast, at £57.8bn, with receipts and spending tracking expectations.

The fiscal outlook for the rest of the year also appears brighter, with the OBR anticipating lower borrowing in H2, driven by higher capital gains tax receipts, reduced debt interest, and normalised social benefit spending.

The US Dollar (USD) clawed back losses on Tuesday, stabilising after a shaky start to the week as traders turned their focus to an upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The ‘Greenback’ had come under pressure after former President Donald Trump renewed his attacks on Powell, urging the Fed to slash interest rates despite persistent inflationary concerns and the risk of tariff-fuelled price rises.

However, expectations that Powell will defend the Fed’s cautious stance and resist political pressure helped lift the Dollar. Investors anticipate that the Fed Chair will signal a steady-handed approach, reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to data-driven policy over short-term political demands.

With little on the economic calendar midweek, the Pound Dollar exchange rate may trade sideways in the short term. In the absence of fresh drivers, broader market sentiment and shifts in risk appetite are likely to steer movement.

The tempo picks up on Thursday, starting with the UK’s flash PMI figures. Analysts anticipate a strong showing from the services sector, with forecasts pointing to a rise to 53, its highest reading since August 2024. A solid print could give Sterling some upward momentum.

Across the Atlantic, the US S&P Global PMIs are also due. While not as closely watched as the ISM releases, a positive surprise could lend support to the Dollar. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims will be closely monitored. Any uptick in filings may weigh on USD sentiment.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

July 22, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: EUR Firm Despite Downbeat Market Mood

The Euro-to-Pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) was trapped in a narrow range on Tuesday despite a souring market mood.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.1528, virtually unchanged from Tuesday’s opening levels.

The Euro (EUR) found modest support on Tuesday, strengthening against several of its peers despite the absence of any notable Eurozone data releases.

Although muted against the Pound (GBP), a broadly cautious market tone helped lift demand for the safe-haven common currency, allowing it to edge higher against its risk-sensitive rivals.

However, the Euro’s gains were limited, as persistent concerns over US–EU trade relations acted as a headwind, tempering investor enthusiasm and keeping EUR performance relatively contained.

The Pound saw uneven trading on Tuesday, with its performance driven mainly by shifting risk appetite amid a quiet UK economic calendar.

Sterling managed to edge higher against its risk-sensitive rivals despite its own growing correlation with risk appetite, as an anxious trading environment dented demand for those currencies.

However, the Pound struggled to build momentum elsewhere, holding steady against safe-haven currencies such as the Euro, as the prevailing risk-off sentiment kept GBP gains in check.

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is likely to remain subdued, with both currencies lacking clear direction in the absence of any high-impact domestic data.

With no notable UK or Eurozone releases scheduled, investors are likely to look ahead to more influential events later in the week.

The primary focus will be Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision.

While the ECB is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting, the tone of the accompanying statement and press conference will be crucial in determining the central banks next move.

Any hints that further rate cuts remain on the table, especially in light of lingering concerns about weak growth across the bloc, could weigh heavily on EUR exchange rates.

Equally, if policymakers strike a more hawkish tone or express confidence in the Eurozone’s economic outlook, the single currency could find renewed support and push higher in the latter half of the week.

At the same time, the Pound may find fresh impetus from the UK’s upcoming flash PMI figures, also set for release on Thursday.

Markets are expecting the UK’s services PMI reading, the dominant sector of the UK economy, to remain in expansion territory, which could underpin GBP exchange rates.

Until then, however, the GBP/EUR exchange rate is likely to remain rangebound, as traders await Thursday’s key events.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Pound Forecasts

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

• The British pound has bounce significantly during the trading session here on Monday, to break above the top of the inverted hammer from the Friday session, as well as the 50 Day EMA.
• The uptrend line of course is something that a lot of people have been paying attention to, as it is so obvious for longer term trades.
• Now that we are above the 50 Day EMA, you have to ask the question as to whether or not the uptrend is going to continue.

Technical Analysis

Being above the 50 Day EMA is bullish obviously, but we also have a major trend line underneath that continues to offer support. If we were to break down below the uptrend line, and clear the 1.3350 level to the downside, then we could see something rather significant as far as a drop is concerned, perhaps a move down to the 1.31 level where the 200 Day EMA currently resides. However, I think that is very unlikely at the moment, mainly due to the fact that it would probably take the US dollar strengthening against almost everything. Ultimately, this is a market that remains bullish over the longer term, but we are sitting in an area that could dictate where we go for the next several handles.

Keep in mind that the US dollar of course is being thrown around by the idea of what the Federal Reserve may or may not do, as traders are looking for some type of handout in the form of lower interest rates. Ironically, the economic numbers coming out the United States have not shown an economy that is cooling off, so whether or not the Federal Reserve will actually cut anytime soon remains to be seen. However, it’s also worth noting that the British pound has outperformed other currencies against the US dollar for a couple of years now, even on the way down.

Ready to trade our daily GBP/USD Forex forecast? Here’s some of the best forex broker UK reviews to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Moving within a counter-bearish channel.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1630 – 1.1580 – 1.1490.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1700 – 1.1770 – 1.1830.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580 with a target of 1.1780 and a stop loss of 1.1490.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1750 with a target of 1.1520 and a stop loss of 1.1830.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Ahead of anticipated new statements from US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell today, Tuesday, July 22, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair attempted to move above the 1.1700 resistance, recovering from its recent losses that pushed it towards the 1.1556 support level by the end of last week’s trading. The Euro’s stability comes as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision and closely monitor trade developments between the EU and the United States.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next Thursday after eight consecutive cuts, with policymakers adopting a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty about the impact of higher-than-expected US tariffs and the strong Euro on European growth and inflation. Meanwhile, EU envoys are preparing to meet this week to discuss emergency measures in case no agreement is reached with US President Donald Trump, whose stance on tariffs appears to have hardened ahead of the August 1st deadline.

The technical forecasts for EUR/USD still indicate that the currency pair is moving within a counter-bearish channel, supported by its move below the 1.1600 support level. With the gains at the start of the week, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) has returned to around a reading of 56, moving away from the midline, which gives bulls renewed momentum to push higher. As a result, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are returning to neutrality. According to the daily timeframe chart performance, the 1.1770 and 1.1830 resistance levels will remain crucial to avoid the recent collapse, and at the same time, expectations for the psychological 1.2000 resistance are re-emerging.

” dir=”auto” id=”content-1686574122635″>

On the downside, over the same timeframe, trading the Euro below $1.16 will remain important for a bearish reversal and give bears enough momentum to move towards stronger losses. Euro trading today is not anticipating significant economic releases from the Eurozone, and the reaction to US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell’s statements will be most important for the currency pair.

Trading Tips:

We advise to sell EUR/USD, but without excessive risk, and to monitor factors influencing the currency market.

Key Factors Affecting EUR/USD Price in the Coming Days:

According to observations by forex trading experts, Euro trading is experiencing a temporary upward trend, but it remains stable against the US dollar. Certainly, not many events are expected this week, as forex markets appear relatively quiet for now. While there are no major events on the US calendar, the EU and Japan will have to approve or reject new trade agreements with the United States within the next ten days, with President Donald Trump’s August 1st deadline approaching. Headlines regarding this issue could introduce some short-term volatility into the market.

Trading fundamentals suggest that trade agreements will benefit the US dollar, as they will reduce the likelihood of negative domestic economic shocks stemming from import tariffs. Reports indicate that the United States also wishes to apply comprehensive tariffs on EU goods exceeding 10% with few exceptions.

The main event this week is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain at their current levels, signifying an end to its rate-cutting cycle. Last June, President Lagarde stated that the ECB is well-positioned to handle the current uncertain environment, emphasizing that further cuts are not guaranteed. Experts expect the ECB to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.0% at its meeting scheduled for July 24th, and we do not anticipate any further rate cuts after that. However, the risk of this decision stems from the possibility of an escalation in the trade dispute between the EU and the US, and a further appreciation of the Euro against the dollar.

Overall, if the ECB concludes its interest rate cuts, the Euro will receive good support from a future interest rate differential perspective. However, most market participants believe it will cut interest rates again in September for the final time. Even if it does, the broader picture is that the United States will likely see larger interest rate cuts in the coming months compared to the Eurozone, which supports the Euro against the dollar.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

The GBPJPY pair rose in its last intraday levels, affected by its lean on the support of minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, gaining positive momentum, accompanied by the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, attempting to surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50, announcing its full recovery.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise of (GBPJPY) in its upcoming intraday trading, if the support settles at 198.70, to target the critical resistance level at 199.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.75 and 199.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair rose in its last intraday levels, affected by its lean on the support of minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, gaining positive momentum, accompanied by the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, attempting to surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50, announcing its full recovery.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise of (GBPJPY) in its upcoming intraday trading, if the support settles at 198.70, to target the critical resistance level at 199.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.75 and 199.80

Trend forecast: Bullish