The EURJPY pair kept its stability above the breached bullish channel’s resistance, which forms an extra support at 172.10, forming a new bullish rally and its fluctuation near 173.00 level.

Note that monitoring the price behavior after achieving the target at 173.40, due to the continuation of stochastic contradiction by its fluctuations below 80 level, and surpassing this level is important to reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack and reaching new positive stations that might extend to 173.85 and 174.40, while activating the bearish correctional track requires a sharp decline to settle below 172.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.10 and 173.85.

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The British pound has rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to break above the 200 Yen level.
• This obviously is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore people will be paying close attention to it.
• If we were to break above the ¥200 level, then it opens up the possibility of a bigger move, with the market looking to get too much higher levels.

On the downside, I see the ¥198 level as the bottom of this consolidation area, so what I want to see is this market stay above the crucial ¥190 level, which is a pretty significant area going back multiple days. If we were to break down below there, then I think you might have a bigger problem. If we can break below there, then it’s very possible that we could drop all the way down to the ¥196 region.

Risk appetite

Keep in mind that the pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite overall, as the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, while the British pound is considered to be a little bit “riskier”, although that doesn’t necessarily mean that the United Kingdom is a place where I’d be worried about putting my money. It just seems to be the overall attitude of this pair.

With that being said, I think that you need to pay close attention to what is going on here, but I would point out that risk appetite has been pretty good on Thursday, so we need just a bit more positive attitude out there I think to send this market to the upside. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy but given enough time I do think that we below passed the ¥200 level and continue to go higher.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Despite the weakness of copper price trading, its success in holding above support level at $5.3200 reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish rally, by the attempt to provide clear pressures on the barrier at $5.5100.

We recommend waiting to breach the current barrier to open the way towards achieving several gains, which might begin at $5.6700 and $5.9700, while the decline below the support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the near trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800. 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.4200 and $5.6700

Trend forecast: Bullish

• GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.3400 on Friday.
• The technical outlook suggests that the bearish pressure is easing.
• The University of Michigan will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for July.

Following Thursday’s choppy action, GBP/USD gains traction and rises toward 1.3450 in the European session on Friday.

Although Pound Sterling managed to hold its ground following the employment report, the upbeat data releases from the US supported the US Dollar and made it difficult for the pair to gather bullish momentum on Thursday.

The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales in the US rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis in June, surpassing the market forecast for an increase of 0.1%. Additionally, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined to 221,000 from 228,000 in the previous week.

Meanwhile, dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who said late Thursday that he continues to believe that the Fed should cut its interest rate target at the July meeting, limited the USD’s gains and allowed GBP/USD to keep its footing.

The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for July later in the day. Investors could ignore the headline number and react to the 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations component of the survey. A noticeable increase in this data could boost the USD with the immediate reaction. Nevertheless, in case markets remain risk-positive heading into the weekend, GBP/USD could stretch higher. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.1% and 0.2%.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart recovered to 50 and GBP/USD closed the last three 4-hour candles above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a lack of seller interest.

On the upside, 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as the first resistance level before 1.3500 (static level, round level) and 1.3540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3400-1.3390 (round level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.3300 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).

• The US dollar has bounce back against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are consolidating just above the 200 Day EMA.
• If we can stay above the 200 Day EMA, eventually I believe that traders will be looking to take advantage of what could be a developing longer term uptrend, especially considering that the interest rate differential so heavily favors the United States dollar.

The Bank of Japan has had several issues recently, not the least of which will be the fact that the Japanese Government Bond market has seen a couple of days where there have been nobody willing to bid for Japanese debt. This is not a good thing and could cause serious problems for the Japanese going forward. In that environment, you can see a potential need for the Bank of Japan to step in and start buying bonds.

This is exactly what “quantitative easing” is most of the time, and it does tend to work against the value of the currency.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is a bit mixed at the moment, because we have fallen pretty significantly, so it’s a little bit of a stretch to say that we have the “all clear” to start buying, but at this point in time I just don’t have any interest in shorting this pair. I get paid at the end of every session to own this market, at least to the upside, and that’s exactly how I’ve been playing this. It’s been very boring, and quite frankly you have to simply hold this pair and forget it most of the time.

I do think that if the market were to break below the low of Wednesday, we could have a drop to the 50 day EMA, this is more of a swing trade for me, and therefore I’m not looking to do anything rash. I don’t have a huge position, but it’s worth noting that the prophet that I’m making gets bigger every day due to that swap. If we can break above the high of the last couple of days, then the next target will almost certainly be the ¥151 level.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has fallen again during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a bit of a pullback. The 50-day EMA sits just above the 1.15 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we had seen a lot of resistance previously. So, the question at this point in time looks as if the market is going to test this for market memory. The Euro, of course, has been in a strong uptrend for some time. So, I’m not ready to start shorting it yet, but if we get below the 1.15 level, it’s possible I may end up doing exactly that. In the meantime, I’m waiting to see if we get a reaction to this support region.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied quite nicely against the Japanese yen as the 148 yen level and the 50 day EMA both offered support. I suspect given enough time, this is a market that could go looking to the 151 yen level, which is an area we had seen a little bit of a double top at previously. So, I do think that might be where we’re heading in the short term. If we were to break down below the lows of the crazy Wednesday candlestick, then that could throw that in the garbage bin. But all things being equal, this is a market that pays you to hang on to it. And clearly it looks like we’re trying to do everything we can to rally.

July 17, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Forecast: Sell GBP/EUR Rallies says This Bank

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) spiked higher in response to the UK inflation data, but failed to hold the gains and traded around 1.1525, not far above the 3-month lows of 1.1500 posted on Tuesday.

Traders still expect a rate cut in August and are braced for a weak jobs report on Thursday while confidence in the UK bond market remains notably fragile.

ING commented; “A soft jobs print tomorrow should send EUR/GBP back above 0.870.” (GBP/EUR) sliding below 1.1500)

Goldman Sachs expects longer-term losses, but would prefer to sell GBP/EUR rallies rather than sell now; “we are more inclined to wait for better entry points before engaging with Sterling shorts.”

The headline UK inflation rate increased to 3.6% for June compared with consensus forecasts of an unchanged rate of 3.4% and the highest annual rate since January 2024.

From a global perspective, the inflation rate was also the highest in the G7 area.

Core inflation also increased to 3.7% from 3.5% and compared with expectations of no change.

The goods inflation rate increased to 2.4% from 2.0% with the services-sector rate unchanged at 4.7%.

There was upward pressure on transport prices for the month while food price inflation increased to 4.5%, the strongest reading since early 2024.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics commented; “The UK does still have an inflation problem.”

Looking at trends in online data, Michael Metcalfe of State Street Markets is more confident over the outlook; “online prices suggest inflation pressures have already begun to subside in the first two weeks of July, which warns against reading too much into summer inflation strength seen so far.”

ING noted the persistence in services-sector inflation; “this latest data appears to set the bar fairly high for faster rate cuts. The fact that headline inflation is edging closer to 4% doesn’t help. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill has recently spoken of internal research, which shows that inflation has a habit of becoming more entrenched when CPI reaches these levels.”

ING also noted that the position could still change quickly; “Thursday’s payroll data is absolutely key. If May’s shockingly bad figures aren’t revised up and/or if June’s numbers are as bad, that could be a catalyst for the Bank to rethink its current cautious approach to rate cuts. For now, though, we expect “gradual” cuts in August and November.”

According to Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist Sanjay Raja; “Is an August rate cut in jeopardy? No, we don’t think so. There’s enough of a slowdown in GDP and the labour market to warrant a ‘gradual and careful’ easing of monetary policy.

He added; “But the onus now rests on the labour market to shape how far and how fast the MPC can cut this year and next.”

Reaction in the bond market will be monitored closely, especially as there has been upward pressure on long-term yields.

The 10-year yield increased to 4.68% in immediate reaction to the data before a retreat to 4.66%.

James Flintoft of AJ Bell commented; “The persistence of inflation above 3pc, well ahead of the Bank of England’s 2pc target, further highlights the risk that higher inflation is here to stay, and parts of the gilt market need to adjust.”

Higher yields could, in theory, underpin the Pound, but there will also be concerns that higher yields will be seen as a symptom of global markets losing confidence in UK bonds and undermine the Pound.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades near 1.3400 as markets assess UK employment data.
• The near-term technical outlook shows no signs of an extended recovery.
• Markets await weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales data from the US.

GBP/USD trades marginally lower on the day at around 1.3400 in the European session on Thursday. Although Pound Sterling gathers strength against other major currencies, GBP/USD’s technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup of recovery momentum.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported early Thursday that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.7% in the three months to May from 4.6%. In this period, Employment Change rose by 134,000, following the 89,000 increase recorded previously. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, declined to 5%, coming in above the market expectation of 4.9%.

Reflecting the positive impact of the employment report on Pound Sterling, EUR/GBP was last seen losing 0.3%, while GBP/JPY was up nearly 0.5% on the day. Nevertheless, the US Dollar (USD) benefits from the cautious market mood and doesn’t allow GBP/USD to gain traction.

Later in the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and June Retail Sales data will be featured in the US economic calendar.

Markets expect the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to rise to 235,000 from 227,000 in the previous week. A reading below 220,000 could support the USD with the immediate reaction and make it difficult for GBP/USD to hold its ground. Conversely, a disappointing reading of 240,000 or above could open the door for a rebound in the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 40, reflecting bearish conditions for GBP/USD. The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the latest uptrend seems to have formed a pivot level at 1.3400.

In case GBP/USD fails to stabilize above 1.3400, technical sellers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.3300 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.3275 (100-day Simple Moving Average) could be seen as next support levels. On the upside, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement), 1.3500 (static level, round level) and 1.3540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

July 17, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Multi-month Bull Trend “Not yet Been Broken”

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) dipped to 3-week lows just below 1.16 on Tuesday before attempting to stabilise.

EUR/USD has again found some support below the 1.1600 level after the latest US data but has not been able to make any headway.

Fresh doubts over the potential for a September Federal Reserve rate cut and higher yields have underpinned the dollar while on-going reservations over Fed independence have been kept at bay for now.

According to Scotiabank; “The multi-month bull trend has not yet been broken but we are concerned about the near-term risk of further weakness as we look to potential support at the April 21 high (1.1573) and the 50 day MA (1.1484). Near-term resistance is expected in the 1.1680/1.1700 range.”

UoB added; “The price action continues to suggest downside risk in EUR, and the next level to monitor is 1.1550. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ is now at 1.1705 instead of 1.1735.”

ING commented; “We think 1.16 can be a good balance unless data adds much to the US macro story in the next days. Risks are, however, that the dollar gets a bit more support from hawkish repricing and EUR/USD starts looking at 1.15.”

Markets are now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a Fed September rate cut.

Commerzbank commented on the near-term outlook; “Fundamentally, the weakness of the USD looked like it has gone too far. It was unlikely that this trend would continue seamlessly. Short-term corrective movements are therefore not that surprising.”

ING added; “yesterday’s reality check on Fed cuts speculation could have a lasting effect by raising the bar for dovish repricing, and we therefore feel the risks remain skewed to a stronger dollar from here.”

US producer prices at the headline and core level were both unchanged on the month with the headline annual increase at 2.3% from 2.7% previously.

The issue of Fed independence and possible forced departure of Chair Powell remains a live story.

Scotiabank commented; “While it is highly unlikely that Fed Chair Powell will quit before his term ends, administration pressure on the Fed leadership is unlikely to relent.”

Scotiabank also noted reports that the Administration could use allegations of overspending surrounding Federal Reserve renovation.

It added; “The appearance of manoeuvring that could potentially lead to the removal of the Fed chair should be of more concern to markets than it apparently is. Such an eventuality would likely be disruptive for financial markets and undermine confidence in the Fed.”

The bank also noted that market inflation expectations have been drifting higher.

Commerzbank expects a 25 basis-point cut in September and added; “Even then, Trump’s attacks on the Fed’s independence are unlikely to stop. A 25-basis-point cut is unlikely to satisfy him given that he is demanding 300 basis points lower rates. Accordingly, the current [dollar] recovery phase is unlikely to last long as well.”

The French government proposed on Tuesday to scrap two bank holidays in order to help curb the budget deficit. There was strong criticism from opposition parties and National Rally leader Le Pen threatened to bring the government down. This could undermine the Euro.

ING commented; “The French deficit story has been very much in the background as of late, but yesterday probably served as a reminder that it is a ticking bomb for EU sentiment. And we could start seeing some FX spillovers in the coming months.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

The GBPJPY pair lost the positive momentum by stochastic fluctuation near 50 level, which forces it to delay the bullish rally and forming intraday bearish wave, to test the extra support near 197.90 then begin this morning trading with a new positive action, due to its fluctuation near the barrier at 198.80.

We recommend waiting for confirming breaching the current obstacle to confirm its readiness to renew the bullish attempts, which might target 200.35 level, while the failure to breach might help renewing the bearish correctional attempts, forcing it to suffer some losses by reaching 197.45, then attempting to press on the bullish channel’s support at 197.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.00 and 200.35

Trend forecast: Bullish