The GBPJPY pair lost the positive momentum by stochastic fluctuation near 50 level, which forces it to delay the bullish rally and forming intraday bearish wave, to test the extra support near 197.90 then begin this morning trading with a new positive action, due to its fluctuation near the barrier at 198.80.

We recommend waiting for confirming breaching the current obstacle to confirm its readiness to renew the bullish attempts, which might target 200.35 level, while the failure to breach might help renewing the bearish correctional attempts, forcing it to suffer some losses by reaching 197.45, then attempting to press on the bullish channel’s support at 197.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.00 and 200.35

Trend forecast: Bullish

• During the trading session on Wednesday, we’ve seen the British pound rise rather rapidly against the US dollar, especially as word got out that supposedly, Pres. Donald Trump was looking to fire Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve.
• Because of this, the US dollar sold off most everywhere, but we have since seen Pres. Trump denied that he was getting ready to fire Jerome Powell, so we have seen the market turned back around.
• The British pound is still slightly positive during the trading session, but it has clearly given back quite a bit of the initial shot.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is starting to turn to the downside, as the rally ran into a lot of problems in the 50 Day EMA. Above there, we have the 1.3550 level, and of course the previous uptrend in general which now could offer quite a bit of resistance. In other words, I think we are about to see the fish pound fall significantly against the US dollar.

That being said, the reality is that the British pound has outperformed many other currencies against the US dollar for the better part of the year and a half, even when it’s falling. Because of this, I think that this could either end up being a nice shorting opportunity, where you can use it as a signal for shorting other currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen against the US dollar. With that being said, I think we got a situation where short-term rallies probably get sold into, but if we were to see the British pound break above the 1.3550 level on a daily close, then I would have to rethink the entire situation here in Sterling.

As far as a target is concerned, we could be looking at the level 1.31, which is basically where the 200 Day EMA is currently hanging around. That would obviously attract a lot of attention, but we will have to see how quickly we get there, and of course whether or not the rest of the Forex market follows right along.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The US dollar has shown itself to be very volatile during the trading session, which of course is not a huge surprise considering that reports came out suggesting that Donald Trump was getting ready to fire Jerome Powell.
• He has since said that’s not true. And that of course has caused the market to turn right back around as false information was the main reason for what we saw.
• The US dollar at one point broke down well below the 148 yen level, but as he has come out during a unrelated press conference saying that that wasn’t true, he obviously didn’t have good things to say about Jerome Powell, but as far as actually firing him, no, that’s not going to happen. And that has calmed the entire situation down.

Support Was Found

The market has found itself finding a little bit of support here near the 200 day EMA. And I do think that is something worth watching. If we can break above the high of the day for Wednesday, then it’s likely that the US dollar could go looking toward the 151.50 yen level.

This is a market that remains very noisy, but I think ultimately will continue to favor the interest rates in America as they are much higher than they are in Japan. And they certainly were at one point during the day as the markets just basically lost their collective minds after that report came out. So, with that being said, I think you have to look at this as a buy on the dip type of scenario.

And I think you have to look at it as a market that will continue to be very volatile, but you can see that we continue to climb as I recorded this video. So, I remain bullish.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Beginning a bearish inclination.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1590 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1700 – 1.1780 – 1.1840.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1560 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop loss of 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1750 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop loss of 1.1800.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Bears have successfully pushed the EUR/USD pair lower for two consecutive days, moving it below the 1.1600 support level. This sets the currency pair up for a new bearish path if the recent strength of the US dollar continues. Selling pressure intensified after mixed US consumer inflation data prompted traders to scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. While headline inflation matched monthly and annual forecasts, core inflation came in weaker than expected. Adding to the cautious outlook, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated that the US central bank will likely need to keep interest rates steady for an extended period to ensure inflation remains contained amid tariff-induced price pressures. Overall, financial markets are now pricing in a lower probability of multiple interest rate cuts this year, with the likelihood of a September move hovering just above 50%.

Technical Levels for the EUR/USD Pair Today:

According to trading on the daily timeframe chart, the EUR/USD pair is at the beginning of a bearish shift, moving below the 1.1600 level. This movement has pushed the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) to break the midline, giving bears sufficient momentum to start moving lower. At the same time, the blue MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) line has moved below the orange line, supporting the technical bearish shift and preparing for stronger losses before technical indicators reach strong oversold levels. The most important target for bears to control the currency pair will remain the 1.1450 support level. On the positive side, the 1.1760 resistance will remain crucial for the return of bullish control. The recent performance of the currency pair confirms the strength of our free recommendations to sell EUR/USD from every upward level.

Today’s EUR/USD trading coincides with the announcement of the Eurozone’s trade balance reading at 12:00 PM Cairo time. On the US side, the Producer Price Index (PPI) reading, one of the tools for measuring US inflation, will be announced at 3:30 PM Cairo time. In addition, there will be statements from some US Federal Reserve officials.

Will the Euro Rise Again?

According to forex trading experts’ forecasts, Euro trading may see further increases as the trend towards European assets continues to accelerate. According to the latest global fund manager survey conducted by Bank of America, global fund managers continue to increase their investments in European assets, with little indication of an imminent shift in their fortunes. The July survey shows the highest overweight in Eurozone equities since July 2021, with a net overweight percentage of 41%, up from just 1% at the beginning of the year.

According to performance on trusted currency trading platforms, the Euro itself saw its highest overweight since January 2005, with a net overweight percentage of 20% of fund managers. This represents a positive shift in investor sentiment compared to the 18% low recorded in January. At the same time, 31% of fund managers consider the Euro undervalued, while 47% consider the US dollar overvalued.

“Shorting the US dollar” has been described as the most crowded trade for the first time in the survey’s history, which is something to consider in the short term, as extremes in trading positions can be considered a contrarian indicator for an imminent market reversal. However, strong demand for hedges against US dollar weakness may limit the dollar’s ability to recover, reinforcing the advance of the EUR/USD exchange rate towards the psychological 1.20 resistance.

According to the report, the proportion of fund managers looking to increase their hedges against a weaker dollar reached 33% in July, down slightly from 39% in June, while 41% reported that they do not plan any changes to their foreign exchange hedging ratios.

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Copper price lost the positive momentum yesterday by stochastic stability below 80 level, which forces it to provide weak sideways trading by its fluctuation near $5.5000 level, without recording any new positive target.

Note that the price activated the attempts of gathering the gains by the continuation of facing negative pressures, which forces it to press on the support near $5.3200, and breaking it will force the price to decline towards $5.1500 and $4.9800, while renewing the bullish attempts requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above $5.600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1500 and $5.600

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price lost the positive momentum yesterday by stochastic stability below 80 level, which forces it to provide weak sideways trading by its fluctuation near $5.5000 level, without recording any new positive target.

Note that the price activated the attempts of gathering the gains by the continuation of facing negative pressures, which forces it to press on the support near $5.3200, and breaking it will force the price to decline towards $5.1500 and $4.9800, while renewing the bullish attempts requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above $5.600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1500 and $5.600

Trend forecast: Bearish

July 16, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Forecast: Towards 1.1365 “Over Coming Quarters”

British Pound Sterling rallies have continued to attract selling interest with the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) sliding to fresh 3-month lows at 1.1500.

ING commented; “Our forecast preference had been for EUR/GBP to grind towards 0.88 over the coming quarters. (1.1365 for GBP/EUR)

It added; “That could come a lot sooner if the labour market weakens.”

Scotiabank commented; “The outlook for relative central bank policy is weighing on the pound as market participants consider dovish comments from BoE Gov. Bailey, with a specific focus on the labor market and the potential response to a greater than expected deterioration.”

It also noted an underlying market shift; “The options market reveals a continued erosion in sentiment as markets price greater premiums for protection against GBP weakness.”

In contrast, there was another positive German data release which helped support the Euro.

The Pound has been boosted by high yields, but if investors suddenly attempt to rush for the exit, the Pound could be subjected to significant selling.

As far as data is concerned, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that like-for-like retail sales increased 2.7% in the year to June from 0.6% previously and above consensus forecasts of 1.2%.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson commented; “Retail sales heated up in June, with both food and non-food performing well.”

ING notes that there are significant underlying concerns surrounding the UK fiscal outlook, but the bank considers that monetary policy has been the key driver for recent losses.

The bank added; “the two-year EUR:GBP swap differential has narrowed back into 157bp as investors question whether the Bank of England will have to ease policy faster than once per quarter.”

In this context, the UK economic data will have an important impact over the next few days.

Inflation data will be released on Wednesday with consensus forecasts for the headline and core inflation rates to remain at 3.4% and 3.5% respectively.

On Thursday, the latest labour-market data is due. The number of people on payrolls will be a key area with markets also monitoring wages data.

Markets expect a slowdown in annual earnings growth to 5.0% from 5.3%.

The reaction to data will be driven to a significant extent by comments from Bank of England Governor Bailey later Tuesday at his Mansion House speech.

Bailey suggested over the weekend that there could be scope for a faster rate of interest rate cuts if there is evidence of notable labour-market deterioration.

If Bailey repeat these comments, there will potentially be a bigger reaction to weak labour-market data.

According to ING; “Should the May payroll release of -109k stay unrevised and should there be further payroll declines in June, UK rates and sterling could see another leg lower.”

The German ZEW economic sentiment index strengthened to 52.7 for July from 47.5 previously and above consensus forecasts of 50.8 and the strongest reading since February 2022.

There was also a stronger-than-expected improvement in the current conditions index to the highest level since June 2023. The data boost will provide net Euro support.

On Tuesday, the French government will announce measures to cut the 2026 budget deficit to 4.6% from 5.4%.

Danske Bank commented; “This is government’s current target, but the budget for 2026 is likely to slip. This could lead to another vote-of-confidence of the French government.”

A no-confidence vote would hamper the Euro.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades slightly below 1.3400 in the European session on Wednesday.
• Annual CPI inflation in the UK rose to 3.6% in June.
• The near-term technical outlook points to oversold conditions for the pair.

Following a short-lasting recovery attempt in the early European session on Wednesday, GBP/USD struggles to hold its ground and trades below 1.3400. The near-term technical picture highlights oversold conditions for the pair.

The data published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed earlier in the day that the annual inflation in the UK, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May. This reading came in above the market expectation of 3.4%. In the same period, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.7%, compared to the 3.5% increase recorded previously. With the immediate reaction, GBP/USD edged higher but failed to gather momentum.

The risk-averse market environment and the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength following the June inflation readings from the US make it difficult for GBP/USD to attract buyers on Wednesday.

After the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% on a yearly basis in June, up from 2.4% in May, the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points in September declined toward 50% from nearly 70% in the previous week, as per CME FedWatch Tool.

In the second half of the day, June Producer Price Index and Industrial Production data will be featured in the US economic calendar. Additionally, several Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally lower on the day after losing about 0.5% earlier in the European session. In case Wall Street’s main indexes gain traction after the opening bell and reflect an improving risk mood, the USD could lose its strength and allow GBP/USD to limit its losses.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 30, pointing to oversold conditions for the pair.

In case the pair rises above 1.3400 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) and stabilizes there, the technical correction could extend toward 1.3440 (20-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).

If 1.3400 is confirmed as resistance, investors could ignore oversold conditions in the near term. In this scenario, 1.3300 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.3270 (100-day Simple Moving Average) could be seen as next support levels.

• The USD/JPY forecast shows a decline in expectations for Fed rate cuts.

• The annual US CPI accelerated from 2.4% to 2.7%.

• Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japan.

The USD/JPY forecast indicates a decline in Fed rate cut expectations, which has dashed hopes of a narrowing rate gap between the US and Japan. As a result, US Treasury yields soared while the yen collapsed to fresh lows. At the same time, market participants are worried about a likely 25% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. 

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Initially, market participants were optimistic about the yen. The Fed and the Bank of Japan were following different monetary paths that would lead to a smaller gap in rates between Japan and the US. The Fed was looking to lower borrowing costs while the BoJ was hiking. 

However, all this paused when Trump started his aggressive tariffs campaign. The BoJ paused to assess the impact on Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, the Fed delayed cuts due to concerns about a potential spike in inflation. 

Data on Tuesday confirmed some of the Fed’s fears about tariffs boosting inflation. The annual headline CPI accelerated from 2.4% to 2.7%. At the same time, the monthly figure jumped from 0.1% to 0.3%. The data led to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. 

At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japan. Such a move would pause the BoJ’s rate hike campaign.

USD/JPY key events today

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls approaching the 150.00 level 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has reached a new high above the key 148.02 resistance level. This has solidified the bullish bias. The price now trades well above the 30-SMA, showing bulls have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI trades in the overbought region, indicating solid momentum. 

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The price has maintained a bullish trend since it broke above the 30-SMA. It has made a series of higher highs and lows, respecting the SMA as support. Given the strong bullish bias, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, after making a solid swing, bulls might need to pause before reaching new highs. 

Therefore, the price might pull back to retest the 148.02 level as support. If it holds firm, the next target will be at the 150.00 key psychological level.

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• The euro fell significantly during the trading session on Tuesday after initially trying to rally, as the Consumer Price Index in the United States came out at 0.2% month over month, and instead of the expected 0.3%.
• Because of this, it suggests that the Federal Reserve is further away from cutting rates than most traders had dreamed of, which quite frankly has been a bit frustrating as it looks a whole lot like the trading public is just now starting to see the reality of the situation.

Trend Remains

Despite the fact that I think the US dollar is oversold, especially considering that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in the short term, the reality is that the trend is still to sell the US dollar. That has not changed during the trading session on Tuesday, despite the fact that the Euro has plunged toward a crucial support level.

That support level, the 1.16 level, has a certain amount of market memory priced into it due to the fact that it was previous resistance, so I do think this is an area that could cause a bit of a bounce. Even if we were to fall from here, the 1.15 level is even more important, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but also features the 50 Day EMA, which of course a lot of people will be watching for potential dynamic support.

If we were to turn around and bounce from the 1.16 level, which is where we are as I write this, we could make a bit of a move toward the 1.17 level, possibly even the 1.18 level. However, I think it’s going to take a lot for the euro to continue higher without some type of conflicting information. The euro has been overdone for a while, so I think you’ve got a situation where this might just be the excuse that the market needed to sell and start taking some of the gains that they have enjoyed over the last couple of months.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.