Platinum price returned to form sideways range trading after recording the target at $1383.00, affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, especially by stochastic approach from 20 level, to notice its fluctuation near the moving average 55 at $1342.00.
Reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support at $1302.00, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum to ease the mission of surpassing the obstacle at $1383.00 reaching the next target at 1420.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $13300.00 and $1383.00
The EURJPY pair was forced to provide new sideways trading, attempting to face stochastic temporary negativity, to keep its positive stability within the bullish channel’s levels, noticing its repeated stability above the extra support level at 170.45.
If the price succeeded in gaining positive momentum, we expect activating the bullish attack by surpassing the initial obstacle at 172.35, then repeats the pressure on the barrier near 173.40 to find an exit for resuming the bullish attack in the upcoming period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 171.25 and 173.40
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) forecast has taken a bearish turn as Sterling once again failed to break 1.1600, leaving the currency stuck near 1.1565.
Hopes of a UK rebound have been dashed despite stronger data and record FTSE 100 highs, while the Euro has shown surprising resilience in the face of weak German GDP and deepening geopolitical risks.
Analysts warn the Pound Sterling forecast vs the Euro could slide further, with Danske Bank projecting GBP/EUR at just 1.1235 within the next 12 months.
GBP/EUR UPDATE
After again failing to hold above 1.1600 on Thursday, the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) has been held in narrow ranges around 1.1565.
The Pound has not been able to capitalise on stronger-than-expected UK data or a fresh FTSE 100 index move to new record highs.
The Euro was also resilient against the Pound despite weaker-than-expected German data and no progress in securing any progress on the Ukraine situation.
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Danske Bank forecasts that GBP/EUR will retreat to 1.1235 on a 12-month view.
Revised German GDP data recorded a 0.3% contraction for the second quarter compared with the flash reading of a 0.1% decline with year-on-year growth held at 0.2%.
ING commented; “Today’s GDP release shows the recent wave of optimism that had caught the German economy in the first months of the year is not yet showing in the data.
It added; “In fact, after the surge in economic activity resulting from the US front-loading of German exports in the first quarter, the economy experienced a reversal of the front-loading effect, and the first full-blown impact of US tariffs took effect.”
Importantly, however, markets have priced out the potential for further interest rate cuts by the ECB which is providing net Euro support.
As far as UK data is concerned, the GfK consumer confidence index improved to -17 for August from -19 the previous month and compared with consensus forecasts of no change. Four of the five main components improved on the month, but there was a small dip in confidence surrounding the general economic outlook for the next 12 months and this figure is still well below the level of August 2024.
GfK Consumer Insights Director Neil Bellamy commented; “The improved sentiment on personal finances is welcome, but there are many clouds on the horizon in the form of inflation – the highest since January 2024 – and rising unemployment. There’s no shortage of speculation, too, about what the autumn Budget will bring in terms of tax rises.
He added; “While August’s Overall Index Score of -17 is the best this year, consumer confidence continues to move in a very narrow band, and there’s no sense that it is about to break out into fresher, more optimistic territory.”
Danske Bank remains wary over the UK outlook and still negative on the Pound. According to the bank; “We increasingly see domestic factors and the relative growth outlook between the UK and the euro area as becoming GBP negatives.”
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Selling pressure intensified after President Donald Trump removed Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations related to mortgages. Analysts view the move as a direct challenge to the central bank’s independence.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Cook pushed back against political pressure, stating she had “no intention of being bullied to step down.”
Market participants worry this action could influence the Fed’s decision-making, potentially accelerating interest rate cuts. While investors are not showing signs of panic, expectations for earlier easing are rising.
Rate Cut Bets Grow Ahead of September Meeting
The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 84% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, up sharply from 62% a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole reinforced this outlook, noting risks tied to both inflation and a weakening labor market.
The combination of political interference and a dovish policy shift leaves the dollar vulnerable, with traders preparing for renewed downside pressure.
The US dollar rallied a bit against the Japanese yen on Monday, as we are seeing a “rethink” of the entire drop of the market from Friday.
The market continues to see a massive interest rate differential, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is now expected to cut rates multiple times going forward.
However, there are some signs that the cut cycle may not be that long, and of course this would mean that you can continue to see interest in collecting swap at the end of each session.
Technical Analysis
This is a pair that is essentially flat at the moment, and this makes a bit of sense, as the Bank of Japan has a lot to think about, but in the end, they also have the concerns about the Japanese Government Bond markets. There have been a couple days where the bond market had no bids, which of course could put the Bank of Japan in a bit of a bind, where they might have to buy bonds. This of course would be the same thing as “quantitative easing.”
The size of the candlestick on Monday is somewhat impressive, as it goes against the grain of the selling pressure from the Friday session. It is worth nothing that the market bounced from the 50 Day EMA indicator, which attracts a lot of attention in and of itself. This market will be watching the 149 yen level, and if we can break above there, then I believe that the market will continue to see buyers jump in, and it is potentially a situation where “FOMO” could set into the market.
However, if we were to break below the 146 yen level, that would possibly bring in more selling pressure. I suspect that it would be accompanied by US dollar weakness around the Forex world overall.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
GBP/USD Rebounds Toward 1.3550 After Powell’s Dovish Shift
The GBP/USD exchange rate staged a sharp rebound after Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks shifted Fed expectations toward an imminent September cut. The pair jumped from a weekly low of 1.3387 to an intraday high of 1.3548, settling near 1.3499 as U.S. Treasury yields slipped and dollar demand weakened. Fed funds futures now price a 93% probability of a September cut and project more than 50 basis points of easing by year-end. Powell’s acknowledgment of “downside risks to the labor market” outweighed persistent inflation at 2.7% headline and 3.1% core, giving traders reason to pare long-dollar positions.
Divergence Between Fed and Bank of England Policies
The rebound in GBP/USD comes against the backdrop of policy divergence. While the Fed leans toward easing, the Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged after UK inflation accelerated. July CPI printed at 3.8%, with the Retail Price Index rising to 4.8%, reinforcing BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s warnings about “acute challenges” for growth and price stability. This contrast suggests Sterling could remain supported if the Fed cuts rates first while the BoE stays cautious.
Technical Structure and Price Patterns in GBP/USD
On the daily chart, GBP/USD has carved out an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal signal. The neckline sits near 1.3587; a breakout above this level would clear the path toward 1.3700, while downside support lies at 1.3450 and 1.3400. The pair also trades above its 25-day and 50-day EMAs, confirming that momentum favors the pound despite intermittent profit-taking. Friday’s bullish engulfing candle reinforced the recovery structure, but resistance at 1.3594—the August high—remains the critical barrier for further upside.
Short-Term Risks and Market Drivers
Dollar demand returned briefly in Asia trading, pushing GBP/USD back to 1.3495, though Powell’s dovish tone capped the downside. U.S. New Home Sales fell by 0.6% in July, adding to the case for Fed easing. Upcoming catalysts include the U.S. PCE price index on August 29 and nonfarm payrolls on September 5. A weak print on either could accelerate the dollar’s decline, while sticky inflation risks might revive the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, reversing gains in Sterling. In the UK, focus turns to the BRC Shop Price Index, which will guide expectations for the next inflation trend.
GBP/USD Outlook
Sterling sits at a pivotal junction, consolidating just below 1.3550 after its best weekly gain in over a month. A decisive close above 1.3594 would unlock upside targets near 1.3787, while a slip under 1.3393 would put 1.3140 back into play. With Powell shifting the Fed toward cuts and the BoE holding firm, the policy divergence is currently Sterling-positive. For now, the market favors further upside in GBP/USD, but execution depends on whether data confirm or challenge the dovish Fed narrative.
The 200-day EMA is in this neighborhood, but it is flat, suggesting that perhaps people just aren’t that interested in putting a lot of risk on. That could be true, but I would also point out that we are in the dead of summer, and that of course means that volume is a little bit lighter anyway.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
And in the Australian dollar, it looks like we are rallying just a touch, but at this point in time I would also point out that the 50-day EMA seems to be offering a bit of resistance. And then again, we have the 0.6550 level. That’s an area that has been a bit of trouble for quite some time. You’ll notice that there was a previous uptrend line that has proven itself to be somewhat resistant as well. It’s a bit of a messy trend line, but it does give you an idea of the overall attitude of the market.
While the Euro and the pound were both performing very well against the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar just ripped it, so I don’t like the Aussie dollar in general and I do think that eventually, if the U.S. dollar starts to pick up strength, this one here is going to fall apart. I prefer to fade rallies in this market.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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Platinum price took advantage of its repeated positive stability above the breached obstacle level at $1342.00, besides providing positive momentum by the main indicators, achieving the suggested targets by hitting $1383.60, to force it to provide some sideways trading by its fluctuation near $1355.00.
By the above image, we notice the stability of the moving average 55 near $1342.00 level, reinforcing the chances for forming an important extra support level, increasing the efficiency of the bullish track, to expect reaching $1383.00 and surpassing it will form the next main target for the bullish track at $1420.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $1340.00 and $1383.00
The GBP/USD forecast remains positive above 1.3500 after the Fed’s dovish tone.
The BOE-Fed divergence points at stronger gains towards fresh yearly highs.
Markets are in a lull before key macro releases like US GDP, Core PCE, and Durable Goods Orders.
The British pound pared its losses sharply on Friday after Fed Chair Powell struck a dovish tone in his Jackson Hole speech. The US dollar lost traction from its weekly top, lending room to the GBP/USD to soar to the 1.3540 area before easing slightly to 1.3490. The move suggests growing expectations of the Fed to pivot to rate cuts as early as September.
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The Fed Chair signaled that the Fed is more cautious about the labor market than inflation, as he highlighted the risk of decreased employment after weak jobs data in July, with only 73k new jobs added and unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. On the other hand, the inflation remains elevated with core CPI at 3.1%. Powell’s remarks triggered a sell-off in the Dollar Index to a 4-week low of 97.60 with US10Y falling to 4.24%.
From the UK, the Bank of England is left with little room to ease policy. UK inflation for July remained sticky with core CPI climbing to 3.8% and retail price index to 4.8%. BOE Governor Bailey at Jackson Hole noted that the UK faces challenges, including reduced labor participation, weak growth, and a demographic shift since the pandemic.
This policy divergence leaves Sterling in a strong position against the greenback as traders expect at least one rate cut by the Fed, while the BOE is seen holding rates steady for longer.
Data Ahead: Core PCE and GDP to Drive USD
The coming week brings several high-impact US releases that could test the GBP/USD rally. Key prints include:
US Preliminary GDP (Thursday): Expected to confirm slowing growth momentum.
Core PCE Price Index (Friday): any downside surprise would strengthen the case for September cuts.
Durable Goods Orders (Monday): A soft print may reinforce growth concerns.
UK markets are closed for the Summer Bank Holiday on Monday, likely muting volatility in early trade.
GBP/USD technical forecast: Inverse Head & Shoulders Points to More Upside
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
The GBP/USD 4-hour chart shows the pair is struggling to find acceptance above the 1.3500 handle. However, the pair has formed an inverse H&S pattern with neckline resistance at 1.3580. A decisive breakout could lead the rally to the 1.3700 mark.
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The RSI remains neutral around 60.0, suggesting more room for the bulls but lacking a catalyst at the moment. On the downside, the immediate support emerges at 1.3460 ahead of 1.3400.
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