See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.

AUD/USD: Monthly Employment Earnings to Spotlight the RBA

Turning to the AUD/USD pair, investors are bracing for crucial wage data. Wage growth trends are a key consideration for the RBA and monetary policy decisions.

Rising wages may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. A higher inflation outlook could reduce expectations of a Q4 RBA rate cut, lifting demand for the Aussie dollar.

On the other hand, softer wage growth could dampen demand-driven inflation, supporting further RBA rate cuts.

According to the ABA, total wages and salaries paid by employers rose 0.9% month-on-month in March and by 5.8% year-on-year. The Wage Price Index, a separate wage growth indicator, rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter.

AMP Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver projected a November rate cut and further policy easing in H1 2026, stating:

“We continue to see the RBA cutting rates again in November, February and May taking the cash rate down to 2.85%.”

Will today’s wage data confirm Oliver’s forecast—or surprise markets?

Beyond the data, the People’s Bank of China’s loan prime rate decision could influence AUD/USD trends. Markets predict the PBoC will leave the one-year and five-year LPRs at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. A surprise cut to LPRs could boost domestic demand, potentially improving Aussie trade terms.

For context, Australia has a trade-GDP ratio of over 50%, with roughly one-third of shipments bound for China.

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Softer wage growth or dovish RBA guidance. These factors could push AUD/USD below the $0.6450 support level, potentially exposing the crucial $0.6400 support level.
• Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Stronger wage growth or hawkish RBA rhetoric. These factors could send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA, bringing the 50-day EMA into play.

Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook: Fed Policy Guidance and Rate Differentials

Later today, Fed speeches will draw interest as the Jackson Hole Symposium looms. Recent US inflation-linked data have affected Fed rate cut bets and US-Aussie rate differentials.

Hawkish Fed signals, calling for a delay to interest rate cuts, would widen the rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A wider rate differential could push AUD/USD toward the $0.6400 support level. If breached, the $0.63500 mark would be the next key support level.

Conversely, increased support for a September Fed rate cut and cuts in the fourth quarter would narrow the rate differential. A narrower rate differential may send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA, paving the way to the 50-day EMA.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Flat despite Downbeat Market Mood

Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Muted amid Souring Trade

The Pound Sterling was trapped in a narrow range against the US Dollar on Tuesday despite a risk-off market sentiment.

While largely steady versus the Pound (GBP), the US Dollar (USD) managed to gain ground against several other major currencies on Tuesday.

Even in the absence of market-moving releases, the ‘Greenback’ drew support from a prevailing risk-off market mood.

The cautious tone bolstered the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly against its riskier rivals.

At the same time, investors remained hesitant to take aggressive positions on the Dollar ahead of key events later in the week, including the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) showed little conviction, with a quiet UK economic calendar leaving Sterling largely influenced by overall market sentiment.

Amid a downbeat market mood, the currency fell back against a number of safe-haven peers, highlighting its sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite.

Equally, the risk environment allowed GBP to make small gains against more risk-sensitive currencies on Tuesday.

With no new domestic data to guide its movement, Sterling fluctuated against most of its key counterparts.

GBP/USD: UK and US Releases to Drive Movement

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair is expected to respond to key economic releases from both the UK and the US.

In the United States, investors will focus on the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which could weigh on the US Dollar if they signal a dovish stance and reinforce expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the UK is set to publish July’s consumer price index (CPI), with forecasts pointing to a modest rise from 3.6% to 3.7%.

Should the inflation data meet expectations, Sterling may find support, potentially pushing GBP higher against the US Dollar during Wednesday’s European session.

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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during trading here on Tuesday, but at this juncture, it just looks like a market that continues to see a lot of noise at the 148 yen level. If and when we can finally leave this area, the next target might be 151 yen, as that’s basically where we saw all the massive selling from a couple of weeks ago.

And keep in mind that despite the fact there is a general consensus that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting, the interest rate differential still heavily favors the US dollar. And that’s something that eventually will come back into the picture. The 50-day EMA underneath offering support is worth paying close attention to because if we break down below there, we could find ourselves dropping to 146 yen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has done next to nothing in the early hours here on Tuesday, perhaps waiting for the interest rate decision out of New Zealand, as the two currencies move somewhat lockstep with each other, because there will be a sympathy related move when we get that announcement early in Wednesday trading. So, I think at this point, it makes a certain amount of sense that a pair that’s been admittedly quiet and sideways anyways, isn’t doing much. The 0.6550 level continues to be an area of resistance that I’m willing to fade at the first signs of exhaustion.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady after a recent collapse.

• The US has promised to guarantee Ukraine’s safety in case of a peace deal.

• Traders are pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady after a recent collapse due to dollar strength. The dollar paused its rally as safe-haven demand dropped after the meeting between Trump and Zelensky ended well. Meanwhile, focus is shifting towards the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on Fed rate cuts. 

Trump and Zelenskiy’s meeting went well, with the two leaders seeming to be on the same page. The US has promised to guarantee Ukraine’s safety in case of a peace deal with Russia. Last week, the meeting between Trump and Putin also ended well. The US president noted that Putin was more willing to work towards a peace deal instead of a ceasefire deal. Nevertheless, markets remain uncertain about the future. 

Elsewhere, the Fed will meet during the Jackson Hole Symposium, and traders will watch Powell’s tone. After recent US data, traders are pricing an over 80% chance of a cut in September. Moreover, they expect policymakers to sound more dovish. However, experts have warned that Powell might not give a clear signal on rate cuts. 

GBP/USD key events today

Market participants are not anticipating any high-impact economic releases from the UK or the US. 

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price action signals a new trend

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA after failing to break above the 1.3575 resistance level. The break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, suggesting a surge in bearish momentum. 

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Initially, the price was climbing in a developed bullish trend, with the price keeping above the 30-SMA. However, the price failed to make a higher high when bulls met the 1.3575 resistance level. Instead, it made a lower high and broke below the SMA to make a lower low. This pattern shows the beginning of a downtrend. 

However, bears must keep the price below the SMA and respect it as a resistance. If this happens, the price will likely drop to retest the 1.3401 support level. On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will likely retest the 1.3575 resistance.

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Created on August 19, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Neutral with an upward bias.
• Support Levels Today: 1.1640 – 1.1560 – 1.1490.
• Resistance Levels Today: 1.1720 – 1.1800 – 1.1880.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1580 support level, with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1785 resistance level, with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1860.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

The EUR/USD pair is still trading in a limited, cautious, and neutral-to-bullish range. According to reliable trading platforms, the euro’s half-percent gain against the dollar last Friday was a strong reminder that the single currency continues to attract solid buying interest on any dips. As the EUR/USD heads for another climb in August, a move past the 1.1735 resistance, and from there to the psychological peak of 1.1800, is possible this week. Success, however, will depend on whether Ukraine and Russia make progress toward a peace agreement and whether Jerome Powell meets market expectations for a September rate cut.

According to forex trading experts, this week will be dominated by Ukrainian peace talks and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday. Given these risks, the chart shows the EUR/USD pair is on the rise again. Our weekly forecast model is positive, as the EUR/USD is holding above the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently at 1.1664 and rising. Above this level, our outlook for the week is positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also above 50, although it appears somewhat stable, which may reflect the consolidation we saw last week.

Overall, this consolidation in the rebound is embodied by the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the July and August declines. However, the move is upward, and we expect a breakout of the 1.1735 resistance level. To continue the upward trend, we need to break the 78.6% level, from which the July 24 high of 1.1788 becomes clear, followed by the psychological high of 1.1800.

Stronger Factors Influencing Currency Prices

Apart from technical analysis, we have some important risks to consider.

The first is the meeting at the beginning of the week between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Markets are already anticipating progress, as volatility indicators have dropped significantly in recent days, which is expected to support the EUR/USD. The surge in oil and gas prices in the summer of 2022, and the negative terms-of-trade shock for the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to fall below parity. Unless the Ukraine-Russia negotiations completely collapse and Trump’s “excessive rapprochement” with Putin reverses, causing oil prices to rise, we believe favorable global conditions can prevent the EUR/USD from trending downwards.

On the economic front, according to the economic calendar, eurozone inflation data is due midweek and is expected to show that inflation is within the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target, although it would take a smaller-than-expected surprise to convince the market that the ECB will make further interest rate cuts going forward.

However, the surprise factor is fading, as all major European countries will have released their domestic data, meaning the eurozone-wide figure will already be expected. The surprise factor is likely to emerge in the August PMI survey, due next Thursday. The July PMI surprised markets with its rise, revealing the economy’s return to growth, boosting euro trading. A repeat performance could help it rise again.

Jackson Hole Symposium to Strongly Influence Dollar Trading

However, the US dollar side is the most important factor for the EUR/USD relationship. All eyes are on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak. He is expected to confirm market expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike given the slowdown in US labor markets. However, he will likely dismiss hopes of a 50-basis point hike given that inflation remains elevated.

As is well known, Jackson Hole has a long history of significance for markets, as the Federal Reserve Chairman has consistently used his speech to signal shifts in monetary policy. At last year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chairman Powell sent a clear signal that it was time to begin cutting interest rates, followed by a larger 50 basis point cut at the FOMC meeting in September.

Last year, Powell said, “The time has come to adjust policy. The direction is clear,” with inflation remaining on a “sustainable path” toward its target.

At this month’s Jackson Hole Symposium, market participants will be listening closely to see if Chair Powell will endorse the pricing for a resumption of rate cuts next month. The risk is that Chair Powell refrains from giving a clear signal on the timing of the next rate cut, giving the Fed more time to continue assessing incoming data before the September FOMC meeting. Obviously, this could help to alleviate the downward pressure on the US dollar in the short term. However, analysts at ING Bank believe the speech will lean toward being cautious on the US dollar.

Trading Advice:

Traders on TradersUp are advised to avoid trading EUR/USD for now until the outcomes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict-resolution meetings are clear, as these have the strongest impact on the euro’s trajectory against other major currencies.

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Copper price didn’t move anything, to keep providing slow sideways trading by its fluctuation near $4.4500, affected by the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, due to the stability of stochastic within the oversold level, to reduce the chances for renewing the suggested bullish attempts.

The stability above the extra support at $4.2600 assists to confirm the price confinement within the bullish track, to keep waiting for gathering the required positive momentum for reaching the positive stations near $4.6200 and $4.7400.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.330 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the stability of the EURJPY pair within the bullish channel’s levels and its fluctuation above the extra support at 172.00, but we notice forming sideways fluctuation by its stability near 172.35 due to stochastic exit from the overbought level and providing negative momentum, to contradict with the suggested bullish scenario.

The stability of the price above the extra support will make it renew the bullish attempts, to target 173.20 and 173.55 level, while the decline below the support will force it to activate the bearish correctional track again, waiting for attacking 170.40 level, which represents the line of confirming the expected trend on the medium period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 173.55

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Can GBP/USD Hit Fresh 5-Week Highs? Pound to Dollar Forecast

Pound Sterling Holds Firm Versus Dollar as Markets Eye BoE and Fed Decisions

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has continued to be held below the 1.3600 resistance area and traded around 1.3550 in European trading on Monday.

According to UoB; “The price movements still appear to be part of a consolidation phase, most likely between 1.3520 and 1.3585.”

It still sees scope for GBP/USD to hit 5-week highs above 1.3620 once the consolidation phase is completed.

ING maintains a positive Pound stance; “Some sticky UK inflation for July looks unlikely to alter the market’s view of the BoE over the coming days. This should keep GBP/USD bid this week, where a break of 1.3585/3600 could see 1.3680/3700 by the end of the week.”

Overall volatility levels remain subdued while equity markets globally have held firm which should help underpin the Pound in global markets.

ING pointed to benign risk conditions; “Without much fanfare, Chinese benchmark equity markets are pushing up to the highest levels in a decade as investors seem happy to look through the impact of tariffs and welcome the prospect of stronger domestic demand in the Rest of the World – powered by rate cuts and looser fiscal policy.”

It added; “With risk assets bid and energy prices offered, we expect the dollar to stay under a little pressure as dollar-based investors continue to put money to work.”

One key economic event will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.

Markets will be expecting hints over the September policy decision.

Traders are now pricing in around a 15% chance that the Fed will not cut rates at the September meeting and Powell’s comments will be crucial for those expectations.

According to ING; “it may be too early for Powell to all but confirm a Fed rate cut in September. Yet when the facts of a ‘solid’ labour market change, Powell will have to acknowledge it.”

Commonwealth Bank of Australia head of international and sustainable economics Joseph Capurso commented; “Given market pricing is very high for a rate cut in September, I think the risk is that Powell is hawkish, or is perceived to be hawkish, if he gives a balanced view of the U.S. economy.”

As far as the UK is concerned, the latest inflation data will be released on Wednesday.

Consensus forecasts are for the headline rate to increase slightly to 3.7% from 3.6% the previous month with the core rate holding at 3.7%.

The data on the services sector will be a key element for expectations surrounding Bank of England (BoE) interest rates.

According to MUFG; “The recent hawkish shift in BoE policy communication has been triggered by concerns over the risk of more persistently higher inflation in the UK.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Extending Consolidation

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) was unable to hold above the 1.1700 level on Monday and retreated to near 1.1670.

Dollar sentiment remains weak, but traders are reluctant to extend long Euro positions, especially with major geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Ukraine.

European natural gas prices dipped sharply on Monday, which will provide underlying Euro support.

Markets will be watching developments in Ukraine closely, with scheduled talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump.

Several European heads of state will also be present, with a key focus on whether details can be provided on providing security guarantees for Ukraine.

According to ING; “Any further clarification of this situation today could be welcomed by markets, even though the issue of territory seems intractable.”

UoB commented on EUR/USD; “The recent price action, where the buildup in momentum failed to translate into a clear trending move, has resulted in a mixed outlook. For the time being, we expect EUR to trade a in range, likely between 1.1630 and 1.1755.”

According to Scotiabank; “The multi-month bull trend is intact, and we await a break of the upper-1.17 resistance area. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1650 and 1.1750.”

As well as geo-political developments, markets will also be watching the Federal Reserve very closely with a key summit from Thursday-Saturday.

Danske Bank noted; “the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week with potential policy signals from Powell, given recent data, could prove pivotal for the near-term trajectory of EUR/USD. We continue to prefer fading short-term USD rallies and remain strategically bullish on EUR/USD.”

It has a 12-month forecast of 1.23.

Scotiabank commented; “With many uncertainties to be resolved for policymakers, it’s not clear that Powell will feel he is able to provide as much certainty on the policy outlook this time round, however.”

According to MUFG; “At this month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium market participants will be listening closely to see if Chair Powell validates pricing for rate cuts to resume next month.”

The bank also expressed an element of caution; “The risk is that Chair Powell refrains from providing a clear signal over the timing of the next rate cut giving the Fed more time to continue assessing incoming data before the September FOMC meeting. It could help to dampen downward pressure on the US dollar in the near-term.”

Scotiabank overall remains bearish on the dollar; “We remain negative on the longer run outlook for the USD (the Fed will—eventually—ease even as inflation is likely to remain sticky, US growth momentum will slow, fiscal policy is unsustainable) but more range trading is likely in the short run.”

ING commented; “EUR/USD should stay gently bid in a 1.1650-1.1750 range through the early part of the week, but could make a run at the 1.1830 should Powell prove sufficiently dovish on Friday.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound before Ukraine Talks

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded sideways at the start of the week, holding just below last week’s best levels.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering near $1.3544, almost unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled for direction on Monday as a cautiously upbeat market outlook curbed safe-haven demand.

Investors appeared encouraged by signs of progress in peace negotiations, with US President Donald Trump due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside European leaders, in Washington later this week.

This follows Trump’s high-profile meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, where Trump appeared to support Moscow’s proposed peace framework that would see Ukraine concede significant territory.

Although the lack of immediate ceasefire disappointed markets, reports suggesting Russia may accept US security guarantees for Ukraine helped sustain hopes for a future peace agreement.

The Pound (GBP) traded sideways at the start of the week, with the currency taking a breather after marching higher through the first half of August.

The Pound’s recent momentum has been underpinned by hawkish signals from the Bank of England (BoE) alongside stronger-than-expected UK economic data earlier this month.

But with fresh UK data absent on Monday – and some investors taking profit on Friday – the Pound’s momentum has cooled.

GBP/USD Forecast: UK CPI To Provide Next Impetus

Looking forward, attention will turn to the UK’s latest inflation figures due on Wednesday, with little in the calendar for either currency on Tuesday.

Economists expect CPI to have edged higher in July, rising from 3.6% to 3.7%.

Should inflation climb again, it would likely bolster expectations of further BoE hawkishness and offer Sterling fresh support in mid-week trade.

For the US Dollar, focus will shift towards the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.

If policymakers hint at a softer stance on monetary policy, the USD could remain under pressure through the week.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts