• EUR/JPY may find the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 171.95.
• The bullish bias is prevailing as the 14-day Relative Strength Index remains above 50.
• The primary support appears at the psychological level of 171.50.

EUR/JPY loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 171.80 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a prevailing bullish bias as the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting the bullish bias is active. However, the short-term price momentum is weaker as the EUR/JPY cross moved below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The EUR/JPY cross could test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 171.95. A break above this level would strengthen short-term price momentum and support the currency cross to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 173.60, followed by 173.90, the highest since July 2024, recorded on July 28, 2025.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the crucial support level at 171.50, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 171.10 and the psychological level of 171.00. A break below this crucial support zone would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 170.09, followed by the six-week low at 169.72, which was recorded on July 31. Further declines would prompt the currency cross to reach the two-month low at 168.46, registered on July 1.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• GBP/USD trades marginally higher on the day at around 1.3550.
• The pair corrected lower on hot US producer inflation data on Thursday.
• High-tier data releases from the US could influence GBP/USD’s action heading into the weekend.

GBP/USD finds support and trades marginally higher on the day near 1.3550 after posting losses on Thursday. As markets await the next batch of macroeconomic data releases from the US, the pair’s near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.

Market participants refrained from continuing to price in three 25 basis points (bps) Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 following the hot producer inflation data from the US, helping the US Dollar (USD) gather strength and forcing GBP/USD to stay on the back foot on Thursday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.3% on a yearly basis in July. This reading followed June’s 2.4% increase and came in much higher than analysts’ estimate of 2.5%. Other details of the data showed that the PPI and the core PPI both rose by 0.9% on a monthly basis.

Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for July will be featured in the US economic calendar on Friday. The market reaction to the Retail Sales data is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. A positive surprise could support the USD, while a disappointing print could weigh on the currency and help GBP/USD stretch higher.

Later in the day, the University of Michigan (UoM) will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for August. Rather than the headline Consumer Confidence Index data, markets could react to the One-year Inflation Component of the survey. A noticeable increase in this component could allow the USD to gather strength heading into the weekend and force GBP/USD to turn south.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds slightly above 60, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact.

Looking north, the first resistance area could be seen at 1.3590-1.3600 (static level, round level) before 1.3640 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3700 (static level, round level). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3540 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), 1.3500 (static level, round level) and 1.3460 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period SMA).

Created on August 15, 2025

• The US dollar has shown itself to be rather resilient against the yen during trading on Thursday.
• This is mainly due to the fact that the PPI numbers came out much hotter than anticipated and I think it kind of lot of people off guard.
• If inflation is in fact going to continue to be an issue in the US, the Federal Reserve is not going to be cutting rates.

That takes that part of the equation out of the conversation. Now, we’ll see. I don’t know if that’s actually the case. But clearly, this gave the markets a lot to think about. The 148 yen level looks as if it is going to be a barrier again, but I think we eventually break above there.

Interest Rate Differential

The interest rate differential obviously keeps the US dollar much more attractive than the yen because you of course get paid to hold it for every night and especially at the end of the Wednesday session most of you will get triple swap if we break out to the upside the 151 level could be a potential target but we’ll just have to wait and see if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday, then the 145 yen level could be targeted.

I like buying this pair. I have liked buying this pair for some time, but I also recognize you are going to be very patient with this pair. I do think that we have put in a significant bottom for the third time now near the 142 yen level. And now I think it begins at slow ascent higher. This grind will also pay you to hold onto it, so this is a bonus to say the least.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Despite the stability of the EURJPY pair’s stability until this momentum within the levels on the bullish channel, but there are several negative factors that began from providing negative momentum by stochastic, and the stability below 172.00 that forms an important obstacle against the bullish trading, these factors help to confirm the dominance of the bearish correctional track, to keep waiting for targeting the initial support at 170.45, and breaking it will force the price to suffer new losses by reaching 169.45.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming strong bullish rally, to step above 172.00, attacking the resistance at 173.40 to find an exit to achieve new gains in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 170.45 and 172.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price returned to form weak and sideways trading, attempting to face stochastic negativity that is located within the oversold level, to keep the main stability above the main bullish channel’s support at $4.0500.

The attempt of the moving average 55 to reinforce the stability of the extra support at $4,2600 might help it to provide some positive momentum, to ease the mission of targeting the positive stations near $4.6300 and $4.7400.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3700 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the stability of the EURJPY pair’s stability until this momentum within the levels on the bullish channel, but there are several negative factors that began from providing negative momentum by stochastic, and the stability below 172.00 that forms an important obstacle against the bullish trading, these factors help to confirm the dominance of the bearish correctional track, to keep waiting for targeting the initial support at 170.45, and breaking it will force the price to suffer new losses by reaching 169.45.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming strong bullish rally, to step above 172.00, attacking the resistance at 173.40 to find an exit to achieve new gains in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 170.45 and 172.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

File image of U.S. President Donald Trump. Official White House Photo by Abe McNatt.

GBP/USD predicted to surpass 1.60 and GBP/EUR 1.30.

Significant gains for the British Pound are possible in this new era of U.S. Dollar devaluation, argues a new research note from QuantMetriks Advisory, the London-based boutique specialising in applied macro and microeconomic research.

According to Dr. Savvas Savouri, Managing Director of QuantMetriks, the Trump administration is reviving past Republican tactics that will yield repeat outcomes: namely, tariff threats that trigger a devaluation of the U.S. Dollar.

Drawing parallels with Reagan (1985), Bush Jr. (2005), and Nixon (1971), Savouri says the current environment is ripe for another engineered dollar slide, as the next instalment of this Republican “blockbuster” franchise plays out.

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Savouri leads a team that leverages a proprietary economic modelling system, drawing on deep sectoral data across major economies.

He has amassed over three decades of experience across both the sell-side and buy-side, with roles at notable institutions including Hoare Govett Securities, Credit Lyonnais Securities, Commerzbank Securities, Lazard, and Toscafund Asset Management, where he served as Chief Economist.

Savouri has long been bullish on the Pound, and concedes that he has been calling the “pound up for a long time. Well, this is not so much my last time as the right time.”

(Readers might also be interested in our latest Q3 GBP/EUR and EUR/GBP consensus forecast data, which is now out; click here to request and see the mean and median forecasts at the world’s leading investment banks).

The tectonic plates of FX are moving as Trump pursues a weaker Dollar to bolster U.S. exports and lower imports, thereby rebalancing U.S. trade dynamics out of deficit.

Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in Trump’s White House, has spelt out the agenda:

“The desire to reform the global trading system and put American industry on fairer ground vis-à-vis the rest of the world has been a consistent theme for President Trump for decades.

“The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade.”

To achieve a weaker Dollar, Trump will pursue the playbook used by his predecessors, namely the threat of significant tariffs on trade partners.

On previous occassions, “the real & present threat of tariffs saw 11-hour agreements to allay them… Japan & then China each in their respective times, agreed to devalue the Dollar,” explains Savouri.

The implications for the Pound are significant: Savouri states unequivocally that if history repeats and the dollar weakens as expected, then “it’s a certainty the pound will rally against the dollar.”

“Yes, having languished for so long, the pound will rise against the dollar… the pound will also rise relative to the euro,” he says.

Gains against the Euro are also likely as the eurozone is described as facing deepening structural weakness, exacerbated by a rising euro (relative to USD and JPY).

Savouri says the deterioration in domestic fundamentals would likely force the European Central Bank (ECB) into aggressive monetary easing, possibly even renewed quantitative easing.

In contrast, the Bank of England will struggle to justify market expectations of further rate cuts because UK real economic indicators are described as “relatively OK,” while inflation is still sticky at around 3%.

In fact, the QuantMetriks forecast for Bank Rate over the 2025-2029 period is 4.00 to 5.00%.

Savouri expects any upward move in the Pound to be sharp and self-reinforcing, noting:

“When the pound does begin to move higher… it will do so as steeply as when it has behaved that way in the past.”

QuantMetriks forecasts the Pound to Dollar exchange rate to rise to 1.60–1.70 in the 2025-2029 horizon, from a current level of 1.35.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is expected to rise to 1.30–1.40 during this period.

– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Eyes Bullish Break Amid Fed Speculation

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate forecasts improved midweek as GBP/USD climbed to a one-month high near 1.3590, buoyed by stronger UK GDP data and persistent weakness in the US dollar. Sterling buyers are now assessing whether the British currency can overcome key resistance at 1.3620, opening the door to multi-year highs.

The US dollar has remained under pressure in global markets as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continue to build. Meanwhile, the latest UK GDP figures have underpinned the pound to dollar exchange rate, despite lingering concerns over the underlying data.

A relatively calm global backdrop is also helping to underpin pound sterling.

Danske Bank noted: “The low-volatility, risk-on environment remains intact, with Treasury yields declining, equities advancing, and the USD weakening.”

The GBP/USD exchange rate posted steady gains on Wednesday, reaching a one-month peak of 1.3590 after the GDP release before consolidating just below that level.

According to UoB: “Strong momentum is likely to outweigh the overbought conditions, and GBP may test the major resistance at 1.3620 today. It remains to be seen if it can break and hold above this level.”

Scotiabank also highlighted that important resistance lies close to 1.3620. Any clear break above this could increase speculation of a move towards 41-month highs near 1.3800.

GBP/USD forecast factors remain centred on both US and UK developments, alongside key geopolitical events. ING observed: “The proximity to tomorrow’s Trump-Putin meeting might argue against adding much more USD shorts just yet. But the bias remains unequivocally negative for the greenback.”

The UK economy recorded 0.4% GDP growth in June, beating forecasts of 0.2% and reversing a 0.1% contraction in May. The second quarter as a whole saw 0.3% growth compared with expectations of just 0.1%.

ING said: “At face value, the UK’s 0.3% second-quarter growth performance looks reasonable amid a flurry of global and domestic headwinds. But this is largely concentrated in components not intrinsically linked to underlying economic performance.”

They added: “We certainly expect the GDP figures in the second half of the year to have a weaker flavour to them. The jobs market is under pressure; payrolled employment has fallen in eight out of the last nine months. Investment intentions are lower, too. And despite the UK-US trade deal, the much bigger issue for UK firms is the uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook caused by tariffs.”

The dollar’s weakness has been compounded by growing expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. In September, the focus is no longer on whether the Fed will cut, but by how much.

There has been increased lobbying for a 50-basis-point cut from Treasury Secretary Bessent, with the Administration also pressing for a more aggressive easing path.

Bessent stated: “I think we could go in series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50bps cut in September. If you look at any model it suggests that we should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.”

Scotiabank commented: “Investors are forced to ponder implications for Fed independence, US data integrity and whether, even with inflation sticky around 3% still, the Fed might proceed with a (perhaps aggressive?) rate cut in September anyway.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• GBP/JPY falls sharply to near 199.30 after upbeat Japan’s Q2 GDP data.
• The Japanese economy grew by 0.3%, faster than estimates of 0.1%.
• The BoE is expected to maintain its “gradual and careful” monetary easing outlook.

The GBP/JPY pair slides 0.3% to near 199.30 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The cross faces a sharp selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened, following the release of the surprisingly upbeat preliminary Q2 Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

Earlier in the day, the Japanese Cabinet Office reported that the GDP expanded by 0.3% after remaining flat in the previous quarter. Economists expected a moderate growth of 0.1%. On an annualized basis, the economy grew strongly by 1% after a GDP contraction of 0.2% in the previous quarter.

Upbeat GDP data has increased hopes of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the near term. On Wednesday, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the BoJ is behind the curve and would tighten its monetary policy further.

Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly calm on expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will stick to its “gradual and careful” monetary easing outlook as elevated inflation and better-than-projected Q2 GDP data would offset the impact of labor market concerns.

GBP/JPY continues to face selling pressure near the psychological level of 200.00. However, the near-term trend of the cross remains bullish as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 195.95.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI manages to do so.

The pair could extend its upside towards the 23 July 2024 high of 203.16 and the 19 July 2024 high of 204.23, if it stabilizes above the psychological level of 200.00.

On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the May 6 low of 190.33 will expose it to the March 11 low of 188.80, followed by the February 7 low of 187.00.

GBP/JPY daily chart

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen a bit against the Japanese yen, but in all fairness, the Japanese yen has strengthened against almost everything. It’s not just the US dollar. So, with that being said, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think this is just a simple risk off trade, not only here, but with other yen denominated pairs. We are through the 50 day EMA, but I imagine there’s probably plenty of buyers between here and 145 yen who are more than willing to try to turn this thing around.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Finally, over here in the Australian Dollar we initially tried to rally but we gave back the gains and now it looks like we are trying to roll over, as the previous channel still finds itself as being influential in this market. But I would also point out the 0.6550 level as an area that is a bit of a problem. You can see it’s been support and resistance so many times in the past. It’s almost like a magnet for price.

At this point though, it doesn’t look like we’re very comfortable going above there and you could see this market roll over. If it does, then it confirms a lower high, and that would be the first sign of a real trend change. Either way, I think the Australian dollar continues to underperform some of its contemporaries against the US dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.