The NZDCAD activated the bullish attempts in its last trading, taking advantage of its lean above the bullish channel’s support at 0.8240 level, achieving some of the gains by reaching extra significant resistance near 0.8325.

Note that the main indicators unionism by providing the positive momentum, specifically stochastic reach to the overbought levels, will reinforce the chances for breaching the current resistance, to ease the mission of achieving extra gains that might extend to 0.8370 reaching the next target at 0.8405.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8295 and 0.8370

Trend forecast: Bullish

July 2, 2025 – Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBPEUR Tipped to FALL to 1.1360

The British Pound Sterling (GBP) attempted to rally on Tuesday, but rebounds met selling interest and the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) retreated to 10-week lows close to 1.1630.

ING commented; “EUR/GBP remains underpinned by a bullish bias, with the welfare reform reversal doing little to alter that outlook. Incoming UK data over the coming weeks will determine whether any push above 0.8600 (GBP/EUR below 1.1630) proves sustainable.”

The multiple U-turns on welfare reform have raised fresh concerns that further UK tax increases will be needed.

UK gilt yields were, however, broadly stable with the 10-year yield close to 4.50% which limited the scope for more substantial near-term Pound selling.

MUFG expects GBP/EUR to trade around 1.1630 at the end of 2025.

HSBC is more bearish on the Pound and forecasts losses to 1.1360 by the end of this year.

The government managed to win a House of Commons vote on welfare payments. The Administration, however, was heading for defeat and had to make further last-minute concessions to cut the number of rebels.

A key element is that the planned savings have been watered down dramatically.

Helen Miller, the new head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank commented; “There will be a reduction in the health element of Universal Credit, that will be some savings for the Government, but there is an increase in the sort of regular rate of Universal Credit. That is a giveaway.”

She added; “The Government has moved from a position of saving some money to saving nothing, at least by the end of this Parliament.”

Looking at the implications she noted that tax changes are; “increasingly likely at the budget”.

The position of Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have both been weakened further.

ING commented; “Aside from the potential implications for the stability of PM Starmer’s party leadership, the probability of autumn tax hikes has probably increased further.”

Monetary policy will also be a key underlying element for the Pound.

According to the latest Incomes Data Research survey, median UK pay awards increased to 3.4% in the three months to May, from 3.2% previously with some impact from the April minimum wage hike.

Private-sector pay deals increased to 3.5%, with close to 20% of employers giving raises above 6% from 12% in April.

The Bank of England is expecting that overall wage pressures will continue to subside, but the equation for interest rate cuts will change sharply if pressures continue.

MUFG expects further weakness in the labour market and added; “Relative to last month we see increased risks that the MPC could go back-to-back with cuts in August and September if labour market data remains weak. That points to downside risks for GBP relative to our forecasts.”

CIBC added; “We see the risks to BoE pricing as tilted towards more rather than less easing, as the MPC appears to be putting increased focus on the output gap.”

HSBC added; “If UK data stay soft, the BoE will have to deliver more cuts.”

The Euro will be vulnerable if currency strength triggers ECB warnings over renewed downward pressure on inflation. In comments on Monday Vice-President de Guindos stated that the bank would be comfortable with EUR/USD at 1.20, but gains above this level could be more complicated.

CIBC commented; “While some ECB members may soon become nervous regarding the pace of EUR appreciation, we would still view the currency as being on the cheap side of relative fair value.”

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• GBP/USD trades in negative territory near 1.3700 on Wednesday.
• The technical outlook suggests that the downward correction could extend in the near term.
• Markets await private sector employment data from the US.

GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure on Wednesday and trades near 1.3700 after touching its highest level since October 2021 at 1.3788 on Tuesday. Investors await private sector employment data from the US.

GBP/USD managed to post small gains on Tuesday but reversed its direction early Wednesday, with the US Dollar (USD) Index finding a foothold following a seven-day losing streak.

News of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” passing the Senate and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious tone on policy-easing help the USD stay resilient against its rivals. While speaking at a policy panel at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, Powell noted that they forecast inflation to rise over the summer and reiterated that they will wait and assess data before taking the next policy step.

Meanwhile, dovish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor seem to be weighing on Pound Sterling. Taylor argued that a total of five rate cuts are needed in 2025, adding that there is a greater probability of a downside scenario in 2026, as demand weakness and trade disruptions build.

Automatic Data Processing is expected to report an increase of 95,000 in private sector payrolls in June. In case the data offers a positive surprise with a print above 100,000, the USD could hold its ground and cause GBP/USD to stretch lower in the early American session.

Later in the day, the House of Representatives is expected to vote on the “Big Beautiful Bill.” In case the bill fails to clear this next hurdle, the USD could lose its strength with the immediate reaction.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated slightly below 50 and GBP/USD closed the last 4-hour candle below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting a lack of buyer interest.

On the downside, 1.3685 (mid-point of the ascending channel) aligns as the next support level before 1.3650 (50-period SMA) and 1.3580 (100-period SMA). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3730 (20-period SMA), 1.3770 (static level) and 1.3800 (static level, round level).

The USD/JPY exchange rate remained under pressure this week as the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined. It also retreated as traders reacted to a statement by Jerome Powell and as they waited for the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data.

The USD to JPY exchange rate retreated to a low of 142.70 on Monday and then pared back some of these losses to 143.50. It remains 9.56% below its highest level this year.

US Dollar Index crash continues

The USD/JPY exchange rate has declined significantly over the past few months due to the ongoing decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The index, which tracks the dollar’s performance, has dropped to a low of $96, its lowest level in years. 

Its crash accelerated this week after Jerome Powell refused to rule out cutting interest rates as early as this month’s meeting. In a statement at a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, Powell hinted that the bank would make its decision based on the available data.

He also said that the bank will not hesitate to cut interest rates if it the upcoming data shows that the labor market deteriorated and inflation fell. This was the first time that he agreed that the bank may decide to cut rates this month. 

Still, the market is not buying this view as the odds of a July cut remain low. Instead, most analysts expect that the bank will cut rates by 0.25% in its September meeting.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect the bank to cut rates three times this year and possibly several more times in 2026. This is one reason why the US Dollar Index has plunged. 

The DXY Index also plunged after the US Senate voted for Trump’s spending bill that introduces tax cuts and improves on regulations. This bill is expected to leave the US worse off as its deficit is expected to get worse over time. 

Looking ahead, the USD/JPY exchange rate will react to ADP’s nonfarm payroll data on Wednesday and the official nonfarm payroll figure on Thursday this week. 

Bank of Japan and the US deal

The other catalyst for the USD/JPY exchange rate is the potential deal between the US and Japan as Trump’s deadline nears. While the two countries have made progress on these talks, Japan has resisted US pressure on inflation. 

The lack of a deal between the two countries will hurt Japan more because of the volume of business it does with the United States. It will also hurt its automobile companies at a time when they are facing stiff competition from Chinee companies. 

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s governor has insisted that it needs more data to determine when to cut rates. He is watching the strength of the underlying inflation, effects of US tariffs, and food inflation. 

Recent data showed that inflation rose to a two-year high in May, higher than its target level. As such, a rate hike cannot be ruled out later this year, making it the most hawkish central bank.

USD/JPY technical analysis

Technicals suggest that the USD/JPY exchange rate has remained under pressure this year. It has formed an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, a bearish continuation sign. 

This pattern comprises of a rounded top and a handle and often leads to more downside. It is now forming the handle section. Also, it remains below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next target to watch being the lower side of the cup at 139.98. A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to 135.

The post USD/JPY forecast: inverse C&H points to Japanese yen surge appeared first on Invezz

• EUR/USD trades in negative territory below 1.1800 on Wednesday.
• The US economic calendar will feature private sector employment data for June.
• The technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum.

EUR/USD corrects lower on Wednesday and trades below 1.1800 after setting a new multi-year high at 1.1830 on Tuesday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum as market focus shifts to private sector employment data from the US.

The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its rivals early Wednesday and causes EUR/USD to stretch lower.

Cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and news of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” passing the Senate seem to be supporting the USD. While speaking at a policy panel at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, Powell repeated that they expect to see higher inflation readings over the summer and added that they will wait and assess data before taking the next policy step.

Later in the session, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is forecast to report an increase of 95,000 in private sector payrolls in June, following the disappointing 37,000 reported in May. A positive surprise, with a print above 100,000, could help the USD hold its ground and make it difficult for EUR/USD to regain its traction.

Investors will also pay close attention to political developments in the US. In case the “Big Beautiful Bill” clears the House of Representatives, easing fears over an economic downturn in the US could support the USD with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure if the bill fails to pass the House.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart retreated below 60 and EUR/USD was last seen trading within a touching distance of the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), after holding comfortably above this level for several days, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, 1.1730 (mid-point of the ascending regression channel) aligns as the immediate support level before 1.1700 (static level, round level) and 1.1670 (50-period SMA). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1800 (round level, static level), 1.1830 (upper limit of the ascending channel) and 1.1900 (static level, round level).

Platinum price failed to achieve a new positive target, despite its stability within the bullish channel’s levels, affected by stochastic negativity that approaches from 50 level.

We expect the trading confinement in sideways range between the extra barrier at $1366.00 and the support level at $1333.00, to suggest the neutrality until the price success to surpass one of them, to provide confirmation signal for the trend, surpassing the barrier will reinforce the chances of recording new gains that might begin at $1400.00, while breaking the support will force it to form a bearish correctional waves, to expect reaching $1303.00 and $1275.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1366.00

Trend forecast: Neutral

Platinum price failed to achieve a new positive target, despite its stability within the bullish channel’s levels, affected by stochastic negativity that approaches from 50 level.

We expect the trading confinement in sideways range between the extra barrier at $1366.00 and the support level at $1333.00, to suggest the neutrality until the price success to surpass one of them, to provide confirmation signal for the trend, surpassing the barrier will reinforce the chances of recording new gains that might begin at $1400.00, while breaking the support will force it to form a bearish correctional waves, to expect reaching $1303.00 and $1275.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1366.00

Trend forecast: Neutral

July 2, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP Major Resistance at 1.38 “Out of Reach”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) strengthened 6% during the second quarter of the year, the strongest performance since 2022.

GBP/USD surged again early on Tuesday and hit 44-month highs just below 1.3790 before a retreat to 1.3725 as stronger than expected US data triggered a dollar recovery.

According to UoB, the GBP/USD outlook remains bullish, but added; “Barring a surge in momentum, the major resistance at 1.3800 is probably out of reach. Support levels are at 1.3710 and 1.3680.”

ING commented; “the dollar has come quite far already and this bear trend probably needs feeding with some macro news.”

In this context, the latest jobs data did not provide that catalyst.

The JOLTS data recorded a notable increase in job openings to 7.77mn for May from a revised 7.40mn the previous month and well above market expectations of 7.35mn.

The data curbed immediate fears over a notable labour-market deterioration and eased pressure for an immediate rate cut, although the key releases will be later in the week with the monthly employment report due on Thursday.

The US ISM manufacturing index edged higher to 49.0 for June from 48.5 the previous month and just above consensus forecasts of 48.8.

Although there was a marginal increase in output, new orders contracted at a faster pace and employment also posted a faster rate of decline for the month while cost pressures remained strong.

ING commented on the overall outlook; “The dollar continues to grind lower in a move probably now best categorised as an orderly dollar bear trend.”

According to Danske Bank the dollar outlook remains negative; “With geopolitical risk premiums receding, the USD’s structural decline is back on track. According to the BIS, the USD slide since April is driven by international investors, particularly in Asia, increasingly hedging their USD exposure.”

It added; “We see many reasons to be short USD right now, including the possibility of a new Fed Chair being appointed earlier than expected, the Big Beautiful Bill on 4 July, and the tariff deadline on 9 July. We remain bearish on the USD, both tactically and strategically.”

Morgan Stanley maintains a bearish stance: “Persistent US dollar weakness over the next 12 months was and remains a central theme in our outlook for markets.”

Nathan Hamilton, investment analyst for fixed income at Aberdeen Investments added; “In 2025, the U.S. exceptionalism narrative has been called into question. Treasury auction demand has been under pressure in recent months, and foreign investor appetite has reduced.”

UK data did not have a significant impact with markets also looking at trade deals.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown commented; “The UK was first out of the block in terms of getting a deal signed with the United States, although there is still going to be pockets of uncertainty to some sectors.”

She added; “Even so, it has again brought more stability in terms of the relationship that the UK has with the U.S. compared to the European Union, where there (are) still no agreements.”

Markets will also be watching the House of Commons debate on welfare reforms with a vote due this evening and there are likely to be a notable number of Labour MPs failing to back the Bill.

A government defeat is unlikely, but if it does lose there will be fresh unease surrounding the fiscal position which could hurt the Pound.

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July 1, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Another 5pc Fall for USD Around the Corner?

The US Dollar (USD) has remained under pressure in currency markets while the Euro (EUR) has posted further gains on the crosses.

The Euro to Dollar has hit fresh 45-month highs at 1.1830 before consolidating just above the 1.1800 level.

The dollar is being hurt by growth, trade and budget fears.

According to Capital Economics; “We suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback – either it turns around here or there is another 5pc fall around the corner.”

US yields have moved lower with the 10-year yield around 4.20% and close to 2-month lows which has sapped dollar support.

According to ING; “Technically, there’s not much resistance now until 1.1900. But the trend is a little stretched, and we would warn against buying top-side breakouts. Instead, expect good buying to come in should EUR/USD correct back to the 1.1690/1720 area.”

UoB commented; “Based on the current overbought momentum, EUR is unlikely to threaten the next resistance at 1.1850.”

It added; “Support is at 1.1750; a breach of 1.1730 would suggest the upward momentum is fading.”

Against a basket of major currencies, the US currency declined 10.7% in the first half of 2025. This is the weakest first half of a year since the end of the gold standard system in 1973.

The Euro has certainly taken advantage of dollar vulnerability. Looking at a basket against the Dollar, Euro and yen, the Euro has strengthened to the strongest level for 25 years.

On a shorter-term perspective, EUR/USD has strengthened for eight consecutive days and another gain to on Tuesday would equal the record breaking run for the single currency.

This will leave the currency vulnerable to at least a near-term setback.

A key problem for the dollar is that it appears to be vulnerable on multiple fronts.

Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management noted valuation problems as the dollar had become “the most expensive asset on almost any measure” at the end of last year.

According to Paolini; “US economic performance had been much better than Europe and China which supported the US currency. “

He added; “We effectively expect Europe and the US to grow at the same rate this year. Retail spending in the US has been flat for five months. You have the Fed cutting rates and you also have dollar outflows because there is all the discussion about taxation and tariffs. The US is a much less interesting and attractive place to invest these days.”

The dollar was unsettled by trade concerns with evidence of a fresh row between the US and Japan, although there is also evidence that the US and EU are close to securing some form of trade deal.

As far as fiscal policy is concerned, the budget bill is still being debated in the Senate after a marathon all-night session.

Commerzbank commented; “If the Republicans can secure a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives will have to vote on this version again. However, the direction in which we are moving is clear and does not bode well for the US dollar.”

The bank also pointed to the economic data; “If the labour market data is weak, the situation should be relatively straightforward. A significant negative surprise would raise expectations of an interest rate cut in July and further weaken the US dollar.”

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July 1, 2025 – Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Forecast: GBP Battles to Match Turbocharged EUR

The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) dipped to 2-month lows close to 1.1640 in early Europe on Tuesday before a recovery to 1.1655.

The Euro has continued to attract support with strength on major crosses amid a loss of confidence in the dollar.

UK political developments will be monitored on Tuesday with a key government welfare-reform vote on Tuesday while speakers at the ECB conference will be potentially important.

According to ING; “EUR/GBP could trade over 0.86 should today’s vote reject the proposed reform.” (GBP/EUR below 1.1630).

SocGen considered the technical outlook and sees scope for further gradual Pound losses; “The pair is unfolding a brief pause; recent pivot low of 0.8500/0.8480 is an important support near term. Overcoming June high of 0.8575 can lead to an extension in rebound towards 0.8610 and projections at 0.8640.” (A target of 1.1575 for GBP/EUR)

The House of Commons vote on welfare reform is scheduled for Tuesday. Despite concessions, there are still reports that a sizeable number of Labour MPs will vote against the Bill. The government may well survive the vote, but strong opposition would reinforce concerns over the medium-term outlook.

ING commented; “The government has already been forced to make about £4bn of concessions to get the bill through – although its passage is not guaranteed. Any failure to get the bill through could hit sterling and gilts on the view that further concessions will have to be made at a time when there is no fiscal headroom.”

Nationwide reported that UK house prices declined 0.8% for June after a 0.4% increase the previous month and compared with expectations of a 0.2% decline. The annual increase slowed to 2.1% from 3.5% previously.

Nationwide’s Chief Economist Robert Gardner commented; “The softening in price growth may reflect weaker demand following the increase in stamp duty at the start of April.”

He added; “Nevertheless, we still expect activity to pick up as the summer progresses, despite ongoing economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential homebuyers in the UK remain supportive.”

The UK PMI manufacturing index was unrevised at 47.7.

There was further upward pressure on costs, although selling prices increased at the slowest rate for three months.

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented; “Although the downturn in UK manufacturing continued in June, the latest PMI survey provides signs of conditions stabilising.”

He added; “That said, any hoped for stabilisation remains fragile and subject to potential headwinds that could severely impact demand, supply chain reliability and future growth prospects.”

The headline Euro-Zone inflation edged higher to 2.0% for June from 1.9% previously and in line with consensus forecasts.

The core rate also met market expectations with an unchanged rate of 2.3%.

ING commented; “From the ECB side, the market prices one further 25bp ECB cut to 1.75% in December. It seems unlikely that President Lagarde will want to interfere in that pricing today.”

According to MUFG; “Recent strong gains for the euro are starting to attract more attention from ECB policymakers.”

MUFG also considers that the bank is liable to be more dovish; “Inflation is still roughly in line with the ECB’s forecasts but disinflationary pressures support our forecast for two further cuts this year with the next one to be delivered in September.”

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