– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.1780 in Focus as Buyers Push Higher

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has turned more bullish this week, rising to two-week highs near 1.1730 before consolidating just above 1.17. The move comes amid a softer US Dollar as traders see a September Federal Reserve rate cut as almost certain, political uncertainty in Washington, and improving short-term technical momentum for the euro.

Analysts agree that a sustained break above 1.1780 could mark a turning point, opening the way for a retest of July’s 45-month high at 1.1830 and potentially sparking fresh talk of gains towards the 1.20 level.

According to UoB, “Upward momentum is starting to build again, but at this time, it is not enough to suggest a sustained rise.” The bank added that a move above 1.1780 would be a “potential game-changer” for the pair.

Scotiabank observed that “the EUR’s latest gains have delivered a near full retracement of the decline from late July and the EUR is once again threatening fresh multi-year highs.”

EUR/USD posted a 45-month high of 1.1830 at the start of July. Scotiabank sees a near-term range “between 1.1650 support and 1.1750 resistance.”

Markets remain confident that the Fed will act next month, with futures pricing close to a 95% probability of a September cut. ING noted that disinflation pressure will persist: “With the jobs market not looking as solid as it did earlier in the year and consensus GDP growth forecasts having been cut from 2.5% at the beginning of this year down to 1.5% we believe the Fed will cut the policy rate in September and follow up with additional 25bp cuts in October and December.”

US Treasury Secretary Bessent has stepped up calls for a 50-basis point cut in September, arguing that rates should be in a 2.75-3.00% range from the current 4.50%.

Bloomberg also reported remarks from E.J. Antoni — whom President Trump plans to nominate as the next Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner — suggesting monthly jobs data be replaced with quarterly releases. The comments, made before his nomination, have raised concerns over data transparency and the administration’s stance, particularly with Trump continuing his attacks on the Fed and its chair.

Scotiabank noted: “USD selling pressure had abated until President Trump repeated his criticism of Fed Chair Powell and suggested that he might allow a ‘lawsuit’ against Powell to proceed.”

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister warned of uncomfortable parallels: “Increasingly this carries echoes of autocratic countries, where the heads of statistics agencies or central banks are being replaced. In these countries, critical data series are often discontinued and then reinstated a few months later after the ‘problems’ have supposedly been corrected, with significantly better values.”

He added: “I’m not saying that this will necessarily happen here. But the developments of the last few days and weeks do not exactly fill me with optimism about the future – or the US dollar.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Softens on Robust US PPI

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate stumbled on Thursday, bringing the pairing’s recent bullish run to an end.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering near $1.3552, down around 0.2% from Thursday’s opening level.

The US Dollar (USD) trended broadly higher on Thursday, following the release of the latest US producer price inflation figures.

July’s PPI figures outpaced expectations, reporting factory input costs rose 3.3% year-on-year, comfortably above the 2.5% forecast.

The stronger-than-anticipated inflation reading lifted USD as it prompted some traders to dial back expectations for a 50bps interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.

This built on earlier gains for the US Dollar as investors favoured the safe-haven asset ahead of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Although Sterling slipped against the US Dollar, it posted gains versus most other major currencies on Thursday following the release of the UK’s latest GDP figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK economy grew 0.3% in the second quarter, slower than the 0.7% growth in Q1 but comfortably above the 0.1% increase forecast.

Growth in June alone was particularly strong, coming in at 0.4% month-on-month.

The upbeat GDP data helped reinforce hawkish expectations for the Bank of England (BoE), easing pressure on policymakers to speed up rate cuts.

Even so, analysts warned that this solid performance is unlikely to spare the government from introducing fresh tax rises in the autumn budget – a concern that kept Sterling’s rally in check.

Towards the end of the week, GBP/USD movement is likely to be shaped by the latest round of US economic releases due on Friday.

US retail sales figures will be watched closely, with any signs of resilient consumer activity likely to buoy the Dollar.

Shortly after, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index will be published, with forecasts pointing to another improvement in morale, potentially lending further upside to the ‘Greenback’.

Meanwhile, Sterling’s performance may hinge on broader market sentiment. If investors remain risk-averse ahead of the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, the Pound could face additional pressure against the US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on August 14, 2025

• The US dollar dropped a bit against the Japanese yen, losing about one third of a percent by the time Americans went home from work.
• Ultimately, this is a market that is likely to continue to see a lot of noise in this general vicinity, as we are stuck between 2 major moving averages in the form of the 50 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA.
• Furthermore, the ¥148 level has been a massive barrier, so it’s really not until we can clear that easily that momentum comes back into the market to the upside.

On the downside, if we were to break down below the 50 Day EMA, we could see the US dollar trade down to the ¥146 level, possibly down to the ¥145 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is probably one that I do want to remain bullish of, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve might have to cut rates. After all, the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan is wide enough to drive a truck through, meaning that you get paid at the end of every day, even if we were to see one or two interest-rate cuts between now and the end of the year by the Federal Reserve.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan has been rumored to be worried about inflation for the first time in decades, but I have seen this story multiple times. The reality is that they have massive problems in their bond market right now and will more likely than not have to start to buy the Japanese Government Bonds, which is essentially the same thing as quantitative easing. The Japanese yen may or may not have peaked a couple of months ago, but it certainly looks as if it is a currency that most people don’t want to own. In this particular pair things are a little murkier, mainly due to the Federal Reserve Outlook but you can see that the JPY has lost ground against multiple other currencies. Eventually, I think that shows appear as well although it could be a much more stable and more of a grind to the upside.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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The GBPJPY pair surrendered this morning trading due to the stability of the resistance at 200.40, to form a strong obstacle against the attempt to return to the bullish channel’s levels, forming strong correctional decline and its stability near 198.77.

Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level makes us expect renewing the correctional attempts, note that breaking 198.25 level will force it to suffer extra losses that might extend to 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 197.55, while the stability above 198.25 will increase the chances for renewing the bullish attempts in the near period.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.25 and 199.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURJPY pair reacted with stochastic exit from the overbought level this morning, which forces it to delay the bullish attack to reach below 172.00, announcing its surrender to the bearish correctional scenario by its stability near 171.38.

The continuation of the negative pressure might force the price to suffer extra losses by reaching 170.90 followed by the extra support at 170.45, while the price return to settle above 172.00 will provide chances for renewing the bullish attempts and reaching 172.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 170.45 and 172.60

Trend forecast: Bearish temporarily

Created on August 14, 2025

• The British pound has rallied a bit against the U S dollar during the trading session here on Wednesday, as we have broken towards the 1.36 level, the 1.36 level is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that has been important a couple of times.
• If we can break above the 1.36 level, then it’s likely that the British pound goes looking to the 1.38 handle.
• Short-term pullbacks here are possible with the 50 day EMA offering a bit of support near the 1.3433 level.

Anything below could open up a drop down to the 200 day EMA, but all things being equal, this is a situation where I think a lot of people are going to be looking at this as a harbinger of U S dollar weakness or strength. This is one of the favorite charts for me daily at the moment.

Pound Has Outperformed Previously

After all, even when the U S dollar was so strong during 2024, the British pound fared better than most of its competitors. Just as we’ve seen the same thing on the way back up. If this pair starts to fall apart, I still might not short it, but I probably will short other currencies like the Canadian dollar, the Euro, the Japanese yen, etc.

All things being equal though, this is a market that looks like it is trying to get to the upside and eventually break towards 1.38, a trade that I’m very comfortable with, but admittedly have to recognize that this V pattern is pretty aggressive. So, whether or not we can keep up the momentum is a completely different question, but either way, I’m at the very least not shorting this pair anytime soon. I look at it more of an indicator of the US dollar than anything else.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on August 13, 2025

• The British Pound has shot higher against the US dollar, and that’s not a huge surprise to me after the reaction to the CPI numbers were decidedly negative for the US dollar.
• And when you keep in mind that the British Pound has been one of the better currencies against the dollar.
• So, all of this makes a lot of sense. And I think we are going to revisit the 1.3550 level, possibly even break above 1.36 if the momentum against the US dollar continues.

We’ll just have to wait and see. Either way, I think this is a scenario where you certainly don’t want to short this pair, but I watched this pair quite closely. And the main reason is that if the British Pound struggles against the US dollar, then it’s a sign that the US dollar is strengthening and the US dollar will absolutely pummel most other currencies that aren’t as vigorous as Sterling has been.

Others Might Be Traded on a Drop

Think of the Canadian dollar or perhaps the Japanese yen. So even if you’re not trading in this market, it is a good indicator of US dollar strength as of late. When we sold off back at the end of last year and everybody was buying US dollars, the British pound, even though it did fall, it fell a lot less rapidly than many of its counterparts.

And as we’ve seen the US dollar sell off, the British pound was much quicker to rally than many of its counterparts. So, all things being equal, this is a market that’s worth paying attention to even if you don’t trade it. I continue to watch the Pound against many other currencies as well, as its strength is fairly widely distributed.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• EUR/USD trades above 1.1700 in the European session on Wednesday.
• The US Dollar struggles to find demand after July inflation data.
• The pair’s near-term technical outlook points to a bullish bias.

Following Monday’s decline, EUR/USD reversed its direction and registered strong gains on Tuesday. The pair preserves its bullish momentum and trades in positive territory above 1.1700 in the European session on Wednesday.

The US Dollar (USD) came under renewed selling pressure in the American session on Tuesday as July inflation data fed into expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook in the last quarter of the year.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), held steady at 2.7% in July. This reading came in below analysts’ estimate of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI increased by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, to match market expectations.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed lowering the policy rate three times this year rose to 53% from about 43% before the inflation report was released.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s main indexed registered strong gains after the opening bell on Tuesday, putting additional weight on the USD’s shoulder.

Early Wednesday, US stock index futures rise about 0.2% on the day. In the absence of high-impact data releases, the risk perception could impact EUR/USD’s action. The pair could continue to push higher in case risk flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose above 60 and EUR/USD cleared the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting a buildup of bullish momentum.

On the upside, 1.1760 (static level) aligns as the next resistance level before 1.1800 (static level, round level) and 1.1830 (July 1 high). Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.1660-1.1650 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend), 1.1620 (100-period SMA, 50-period SMA) and 1.1540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

The GBPJPY pair succeeded in settling above 66%Fibonacci correction level at 198.85, reinforcing the continuation of the positivity, to face 200.10 resistance, achieving the extra waited target in the previous report.

Note that monitoring the price behavior as there is a chance for forming mixed trading until breaching the current resistance, to settle within the bullish channel’s levels again, increasing the chances for achieving extra gains that might begin at 200.85 reaching 78.2%Fibonacci correction level at 202.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 199.25 and 200.40

Trend forecast: Sideways