July 1, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Climbs as US Scales Back Trade Goals

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) maintained a positive trajectory on Tuesday, with the pairing propelled to a new multi-year high.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3771, up around 0.3% from Tuesday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar slipped on Tuesday following reports that the Trump administration is narrowing the scope of its trade negotiations.

Rather than pursuing a comprehensive set of international trade agreements by the 9 July deadline, US officials are now said to be aiming for more limited bilateral deals.

This apparent shift helped to boost market confidence and eased safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Additional downward pressure on USD exchange rates was then driven by speculation that a reduction in trade friction could lead the Federal Reserve to consider cutting rates sooner rather than later.

Although the Pound (GBP) strengthened during Tuesday’s European session, its ascent was checked by comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.

In an interview ahead of his speech at the European Central Bank’s annual Sintra forum, Bailey acknowledged that the UK labour market is showing signs of weakness and suggested that the path for interest rates remains downward.

These remarks reinforced expectations that the BoE will implement another rate cut in August, limiting the Pound’s upward momentum.

Looking to the days ahead, the focus will shift to Thursday’s non-farm payrolls report, which could drive significant movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Economists predict US job growth slowed to just 110,000 in June, a figure that, if confirmed, would likely cement expectations for a Fed rate cut later this summer and add to pressure on the US Dollar.

Further weakness in the ISM PMIs could reinforce concerns about the resilience of the US economy.

Meanwhile, with a quiet UK data calendar, Pound movement will likely remain at the mercy of broader risk trends and the market’s evolving outlook on BoE policy.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Pretty much every headline that you hear is how the US dollar is going to disappear. And my experience has been anytime you hear that, you’re getting close to the end. The Japanese yen is a little bit different, mainly due to the fact that the Bank of Japan is stuck with loose policy. Quite frankly, when you have a situation where people aren’t willing to step in and buy your bonds, that’s not a good look.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially fell, but it looks like it’s going to actually hold the 0.6550 level finally. This is an area that had been a little bit of a problem for some time. So, this is actually a really good sign for the Aussie. At this point in time, I suspect we will try to get to the 0.6650 level, but it’s probably going to be a grind just like the previous 200 pips. This is not a market that has anywhere to be anytime soon. It’s just gradually drifting higher, mainly, I suspect, because of US dollar weakness and not really anything to do with Australia itself. So, with this, I think you just have a grind, perhaps for another 100 pips before it’s all said and done.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The EURJPY pair didn’t move anything since yesterday, to notice its fluctuations in sideways range near 196.60 level, attempting to face the negativity of stochastic and finding an exit to resume the bullish attempts until reaching the resistance of the bullish channel at 170.40.

Therefore, we will return to prefer the bullish attempts in the current trading, depending on the stability of the price above 168.70 level, confirming the importance of monitoring its behavior after reaching the targeted resistance, which forms a main key to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 168.70 and 170.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

• GBP/USD trades at its highest level since October 2021 above 1.3770.
• Comments from central bankers will be watched closely by market participants.
• The pair could encounter strong resistance at 1.3830.

GBP/USD gathers bullish momentum following Monday’s choppy action and trades at its highest level since October 2021 above 1.3770. In the second half of the day, macroeconomic data releases from the US and comments from central bankers could drive the pair’s action.

Following the previous week’s sharp decline, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays under bearish pressure early Tuesday, fuelling GBP/USD’s rally.

The risk-positive market atmosphere and increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to weigh on the USD. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said late Monday that US President Donald Trump sent a handwritten note to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, asking him to lower interest rates. She further noted that Trump believes interest rates should be lowered to about 1%.

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated on Tuesday that the path of interest rates will continue to be gradually downwards.

“The increase in uncertainty is coming through in terms of economic activity and growth,” Bailey added. “Businesses tell me they are putting off investment decisions.” Nevertheless, these comments failed to influence Pound Sterling’s valuation.

Later in the day, JOLTS Job Openings data for May and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June will be featured in the US economic calendar. The market reaction to these releases is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. In case both of these data offer positive surprises, the USD could stage a rebound and trigger a downward correction in GBP/USD.

Moreover, BoE Governor Bailey and Fed Chairman Powell will participate in a policy panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. In case Powell suggests that they are unlikely to consider a rate cut until September and continue to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, the USD could stay resilient against its peers.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 70, suggesting that GBP/USD is about to turn technically overbought. On the upside, 1.3830 (upper limit of the ascending channel) aligns as an important resistance level before 1.3900 (static level, round level).

Looking south, the first support could be spotted at 1.3730 (20-period Simple Moving Average) ahead of 1.3700 (static level, round level) and 1.3670 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

• The US dollar has been stable against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday, which in and of itself is not necessarily anything markable, except the fact that we have seen the US dollar struggle against so many other currencies.
• Because of this, I suspect that there is a problem with the Japanese yen itself.
• After all, the Japanese yen is parentally weak, as the Bank of Japan is normally very loose with its monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan has a significant issue at the moment, due to the fact that there have been a lack of buyers in the Japanese Government Bond markets. This is a major problem for central banks and will almost always lead to more central bank buying of bonds, or what you probably know as “quantitative easing.” That’s an extreme simplification of what’s going on, but it is a very realistic example. By contrast, we have the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, but that would still leave a major interest rate differential between these 2 currencies and make the dollar attractive against the yen itself.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis at the moment is somewhat flat, as we have been trading in a range for a couple of months. The ¥142 level on the bottom is an area of significant support, while the ¥148 level has been significant resistance. It seems as if the market is very comfortable near the ¥145 level, which is also attracting the 50 Day EMA. As the market has gone into a multi-month consolidation area, this tells me that we could possibly be trying to form some type of bottoming pattern. This could take months though, which would not be unusual for this currency pair.

If we were to break above the ¥148 level, that opens up a move above the 200 Day EMA as well and perhaps should send the USD/JPY pair to the ¥150 level. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the ¥142 level, then I suspect we revisit the ¥140 level relatively quickly.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The euro initially pulled back just a touch in the early hours of Monday, but it looks as if we are ready to continue going higher in what has been a slightly overextended run.
• At the end of the day, we are obviously very bullish of the market at the moment, despite the fact that I can give you a handful of reasons why the US dollar is oversold.

Perhaps we will turn around, but at this point in time you have to assume that there will be a bit of continuation overall, as the trend has clearly been positive for several months. If we do pull back from here, then we could look at a move to the 1.16 level, an area that previously had been a major resistance level. This could bring in a bit of “market memory” into the market, as traders would try to either cover short positions that has been wrong or perhaps try to join in on what had been a massive move higher.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is obviously very bullish, but I also recognize that we have gotten a little ahead of ourselves. After all, the 50 Day EMA is all the way down at the 1.14 level but is rising to perhaps try to meet the rest of the market. On the other hand, if we continue to go higher, we will have to deal with the 1.18 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that would attract a certain amount of attention. Regardless, it does seem as if the euro is hell-bent on going much higher given enough time, so I think most traders will be looking at this through the prism of perhaps trying to find a little bit of value.

Over the longer term, a lot of this will come down to what the Federal Reserve does, and you should keep in mind that the Non-Foreign Payroll announcement comes out on Thursday this week instead of Friday, so it will compress some of the volatility as far as time is concerned. Whether or not that influences this pair remains to be seen, but now market participants have priced in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, driving this pair higher.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Platinum price attempted to renew the bullish attempts by its rally to $1377.40, but its neediness to the positive momentum that pushed it to form weak and sideways trading, to settle near $1342.00 approaching from the bullish channel’s support at $1330.00.

The current scenario depends on the strength of the mentioned support, its stability makes us expect forming bullish waves, to confirm its stability above $1366.00 level, to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack and reaching the next target near $1400.00, while breaking the support and holding below it will confirm activating the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching $1303.00 initially followed by $1275.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1382.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• EUR/JPY may rebound toward the 12-month high at 169.86, marked on Monday.
• The 14-day RSI hovers just below 70, indicating the persistent bullish bias.
• The nine-day EMA of 168.77 would act as the primary support.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 169.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern, strengthening the bullish bias.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 70 mark, strengthening the bullish sentiment. However, if the RSI breaks above the 70 mark, the pair would be in an overbought zone and indicate a downward correction soon. Additionally, the short-term price momentum is stronger as the EUR/JPY cross remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the 12-month high at 169.86, which was recorded on June 30. A successful breach above this level would reinforce the market bias and support the currency cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 171.40.

The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 168.77. Further declines would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to fall toward the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 167.00, followed by the 50-day EMA at 165.32.

A break below the 50-day EMA would dampen the medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to navigate the region around the “throwback resistance” at 161.00

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• • USD/JPY faces pressure as bullish momentum fades.
  • The USD/JPY momentum indicators signal fading trend strength, as the ADX and MACD weaken.
  • Broader US Dollar weakness adds to downside pressure on USD/JPY, pushing prices toward 144.00.

The USD/JPY is struggling to hold key support on Monday as bullish momentum continues to fade, with both the daily and weekly charts indicating weakening trend strength. 

After failing to sustain gains above the 148.00 level last week, the pair has drifted lower, moving back toward rising trendline support near the 144.00 handle.

This trendline currently aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline at 144.37, a zone the pair is now trying to defend. Monday’s price action shows USD/JPY attempting to stabilize above this support area, but momentum indicators suggest the move may lack conviction.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 144.19. With momentum softening across various timeframes, technical signals continue to indicate a range-bound market, increasing the risk of a downside break if support levels fail to hold.

Momentum indicators hint at fading trend strength for USD/JPY

The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily timeframe has dropped to 10.87, indicating an extremely weak trend, even more so than the weekly reading. This further confirms that recent moves are corrective in nature rather than part of a sustained trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart is also flattening out, with histogram bars losing strength and the signal line turning sideways. This suggests a lack of bullish follow-through after last week’s failed breakout near 148.00.

USD/JPY daily chart

The weekly chart below illustrates how longer-term moving averages continue to act as dynamic support and resistance for USD/JPY price action.

Last week, the pair surged after climbing above both the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 147.14. 

A weaker Yen helped fuel the recovery, briefly lifting the pair to retest the psychological 148.00 level.

USD/JPY dips below the 20-week SMA as bullish momentum fades

However, the move stalled as profit-taking and a lack of bullish follow-through triggered a reversal. This is reflected in the weekly candle’s thin upper wick, indicating fading buying interest near 148.00. The pair has since slipped back below the 20-week SMA, which now turns into resistance at 145.92.

Momentum signals are softening. The ADX closed last week pointing lower, indicating weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting any upside seen so far is likely corrective rather than the start of a sustainable uptrend.

USD/JPY weekly chart

Bearish bias persists for USD/JPY below 144.00

Looking to this week, Monday’s price action has pushed the pair toward rising trendline support, which is currently holding above the psychological 144.00 level.

A break below 144.00 could bring the 142.79 area into focus, the third touchpoint of the ascending trendline. Below that, 142.00 stands as another key psychological level, with a deeper move possibly exposing the 140.00 handle.

The April trendline remains a key short-term support structure; however, broader technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. Both the 20 and 50-week SMAs continue to slope downward, reinforcing the longer-term bearish bias unless price can reclaim and hold above the 149.00 region.

June 30, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Steady vs Dollar as UK GDP in line with Expectations

The Pound Sterling trended mostly flat against the US Dollar on Monday despite the release of some optimistic UK GDP data.

The Pound (GBP) began the week on the back foot, weakening against several major peers despite the release of stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the British economy expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, a notable improvement from the previous 0.1% reading and in line with forecasts.

However, the Pound struggled to gain traction.

Markets appeared cautious in their response, with investors questioning whether the momentum can be sustained amid ongoing consumer spending pressures and signs of labour market weakness.

As a result, GBP was unable to fully capitalise on the economic rebound.

The US Dollar (USD) was largely directionless on Monday, trading in a narrow range against most major peers as a lack of high-impact US data left markets without a clear catalyst.

With little on the domestic economic calendar to drive movement, investors appeared hesitant to make bold moves on the ‘Greenback’ ahead of key releases due on Tuesday.

These include May’s JOLTs job openings and the ISM manufacturing PMI for June, both of which could significantly influence market sentiment if they deviate from expectations.

In the meantime, the absence of fresh drivers kept USD exchange rates mostly flat through Monday’s European session.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, movement in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to be driven by a mix of UK and US economic releases.

In the US, the spotlight will fall on the latest JOLTs job openings and ISM manufacturing PMI.

Job openings are forecast to decline, while the manufacturing index is expected to remain unchanged.

If both figures meet expectations or disappoint, the US Dollar could come under renewed pressure as signs of a cooling labour market and stagnant factory activity may weigh on Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Meanwhile, the UK will publish its finalised manufacturing PMI for June.

The index is set to be revised slightly higher, from 46.4 to 47.7. However, as the reading remains firmly below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction, the revision is unlikely to offer much meaningful support to Sterling.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts