• The Euro has rallied against the US dollar during early trading on Tuesday, as the world waited for the congressional testimony from Jerome Powell.
• All things being equal, the market is just simply continuing the move that it has made previously, so I don’t know that there’s a whole lot to talk about here.
• It’s just a simple continuation play, which is focused on the 1.16 level, an area that has been important multiple times, and I do think that if we can break a significant amount of distance above there, then we could get something going.

Otherwise, I think this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, with the massive amount of support at 1.13 underneath worth paying attention to. If we were to break down below there, then it would change a lot of things.

Right now I just don’t see a reason to think that things will change drastically enough to send the market below the 1.13 level, unless we get some type of major escalation in the Middle East, which has seen a cease-fire between the Iranians and the Israelis, which is more helpful for “risk on behavior”, which typically works against the value of the US dollar. We should be careful to make that assumption though, because a lot will come down to whether or not the US is starting to grow again.

Watching Closely

I’m watching closely to see if we can get a daily close above the 1.1650 level, because if we do, that could end up being a very bullish sign for this pair. However, I also recognize that this is a market that tends to be very noisy and grinds a lot, especially when you have a lot of geopolitical risks out there that could come into the picture in cause absolute chaos. Short-term dips are very possible and very likely, but the art necessarily reasons to start shorting the market at this juncture. I believe it is a scenario that continues to favor the overall back and forth choppiness that we have seen, and I also recognize that range bound traders will continue to be drawn to this stagnant, yet slightly bullish market.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Copper price failed to breach the $4,8900 level, which represents an extra obstacle against the attempts to resume the bullish attack, forcing it to provide sideways fluctuation near $4.8600, attempting to gather the required positive momentum.

Therefore, we will keep waiting for achieving the required breach, to open the way towards recording more of the gains that begin at $5.0300 and $5.1300, while the failure to breach might increase the chances of forming a temporary negative rebound, to expect targeting $4.7500 level before any attempt to achieve any of the suggested bullish targets. 

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8200 and $4.9000

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach

Copper price failed to breach the $4,8900 level, which represents an extra obstacle against the attempts to resume the bullish attack, forcing it to provide sideways fluctuation near $4.8600, attempting to gather the required positive momentum.

Therefore, we will keep waiting for achieving the required breach, to open the way towards recording more of the gains that begin at $5.0300 and $5.1300, while the failure to breach might increase the chances of forming a temporary negative rebound, to expect targeting $4.7500 level before any attempt to achieve any of the suggested bullish targets. 

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8200 and $4.9000

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1550 – 1.1430 – 1.1300.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1660 – 1.1730 – 1.1800.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1490 with a target of 1.1720 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1680 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1790.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

For the second consecutive day, the EUR/USD price is moving strongly upward, driven by improved investor and market sentiment. At the time of writing, gains have reached the 1.1660 resistance level, near the pair’s highest point in three and a half years. The positive momentum for currency prices increased after US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a temporary ceasefire, starting Monday midnight Washington time, following US-ordered airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Trump stated that the agreement aims to end the conflict permanently, calling it a “12-day war.” He praised both nations for their “resilience, courage, and intelligence” in reaching the agreement. According to Reuters, an Iranian official confirmed Tehran’s acceptance of the US-brokered deal, though Israel has not yet commented.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp follower, despite the gains, it’s best to continue selling the EUR/USD, but without risk, and to closely monitor the factors affecting currency prices.

Recent EUR/USD gains have strongly pushed technical indicators upwards. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around a reading of 65 and still has some room and gains before reaching overbought territory. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines continue to confirm bullish dominance. Overbought conditions for technical indicators might occur as bulls push the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1720 and 1.1800 resistance levels, respectively.

Today’s bullish momentum for EUR/USD will react to the announcement of German IFO Business Climate Index readings at 11:00 AM Egypt time, followed by anticipated statements from European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde at 4:00 PM Egypt time. On the US side, US Consumer Confidence readings will be announced at 5:00 PM Egypt time, and simultaneously, there will be new statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Will the euro rise against the US dollar in the coming days?

According to forex market experts’ forecasts, the direction of exchange rates will depend on crude oil prices and their rate of increase, subsequent risk-off pressures, and potential escalation. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was slightly stronger last week, but in light of recent developments, the US currency might see further strength, as its safe-haven attributes perform better. Therefore, energy prices and the scope of Iran’s response will be a key focus in the short term, with the Strait of Hormuz being a major component.

Currency experts commented on recent events that if the Strait of Hormuz becomes unnavigable, it would constitute an unprecedented negative supply shock in energy markets, at least in recent history. At this stage, they view the risks as relatively low, and from their perspective, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s last resort, as it would inevitably lead to a strong US military response, and because its domestic economy relies on it. However, desperate times lead to desperate measures, and if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei feels he has nothing left to lose, he might choose to risk everything.

On another note, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week following last week’s monetary policy decision, all of which are influential factors on the direction of the EUR/USD price in the coming days.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best forex trading accounts worth trading with.

• USD/JPY is stuck in a safe haven standoff with no clear winner.
• With central banks cautious and Middle East risks simmering, a breakout could hinge on geopolitics.
• All eyes on 148—can bulls push through, or will the range hold yet again?
• Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate the current market volatility? Subscribe here to unlock access to InvestingPro’s AI-selected stock winners.

On the currency pair, where both components are considered so-called safe havens, we’re observing a tug-of-war with no clear advantage for either side. On one hand, central banks remain passive, having left interest rates unchanged during their June meetings. On the other hand, the market is clearly uncertain about developments in the Middle East. Under these conditions, we may see a prolonged sideways trend—although a resumption of the conflict in the Middle East could spark increased volatility, not only in this market but also in the market. Beyond military developments, attention should also be paid to the ongoing Washington–Tokyo trade agreement negotiations, which, according to official statements, have not led to any breakthroughs at this stage.

Bank of Japan Remains With Cautious Stance

At the ’s latest meeting earlier this month, interest rates were once again left unchanged. This stance may come as a surprise, given that inflation has remained above the Bank’s defined target for more than three years. One symbolic example is the price of rice, which rose by more than 100% year-on-year in May. In response, the Japanese government decided to release strategic reserves of the commodity in an effort to curb price increases. However, this move is likely to have only a short-term impact (similar to previous BOJ interventions in the foreign exchange market) and is far from sufficient over the longer term.

Figure 1: Inflation Dynamics in Japan

Japan’s monetary policy officials continue to express concern about the pace of , especially amid uncertainty regarding the outcome of U.S. trade negotiations. According to BOJ Governor Ueda’s latest statement, the Bank is prepared to raise interest rates further in the coming months. However, this seems more like verbal intervention than a firm signal of concrete action.

At its June meeting, the effectively maintained the status quo—retaining its broadly hawkish stance but leaving the door open for possible rate cuts in September, depending on the development of the tariff war. Meanwhile, several dovish voices have emerged in recent days suggesting that another cut could come as early as July. Among these are Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. Bowman was recently nominated by Donald Trump to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve. Her views may align closely with those of the current President, who has made it clear he supports steep interest rate cuts.

Key Resistance on USDJPY Defended

The latest bullish push on the USDJPY pair led to a test of a key resistance zone in the 148 yen per dollar region. However, any attempt to break above this level was quickly met with a strong wave of selling pressure, keeping the pair locked in a medium-term consolidation.

Figure 2: Technical Analysis of USDJPY

The next directional move will likely depend on whether the pair eventually breaks out of the 143–148 yen per dollar range—and in which direction.

****

Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Whether you’re a novice investor or a seasoned trader, leveraging InvestingPro can unlock a world of investment opportunities while minimizing risks amid the challenging market backdrop.

Subscribe now and instantly unlock access to several market-beating features, including:

• ProPicks AI: AI-selected stock winners with a proven track record.
• InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued.
• Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters and criteria.
• Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying.

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

• GBP/JPY retraces to near 197.35 after revisiting an almost six-month high around 198.20.
• Lower Oil price has strengthened the demand of the Japanese Yen.
• Upbeat flash UK PMI data for June has supported the Pound Sterling.

The GBP/JPY pair corrects slightly to near 197.35 during European trading hours on Tuesday after revisiting an almost six-month high around 198.20 the previous day. The cross faces slight selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains due to a sharp decline in the Oil price, following the Israel-Iran ceasefire.

The Japanese currency underperformed its peers on Monday after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a sharp increase in the Oil price. Given that the Japanese economy addresses its Oil requirements from imports, higher energy prices diminish the Japanese Yen’s appeal.

Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers, except Asia-Pacific currencies, due to upbeat preliminary United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June released on Monday. The data showed that the Composite PMI grew at a faster-than-expected pace due to outperformance in both the manufacturing and the service sector activity.

The Service PMI grew expectedly to 51.3, higher than 50.9 in May. While the Manufacturing PMI declined to near 47.7 but at a slower-than-anticipated pace.

GBP/JPY retraces after a breakout of the Ascending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which leads to wider ticks and heavy volume on the upside. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the May 14 high around 196.41, while the upward-sloping trendline is placed from the May 22 low of 191.90.

Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 195.50 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above that level.

The pair could extend its upside towards the psychological level of 200.00 and the 23 July 2024 high of 203.16 after breaking above Monday’s high of 198.20.

On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the May 6 low of 190.33 will expose it to the March 11 low of 188.80, followed by the February 7 low of 187.00.

GBP/JPY daily chart

The EURJPY pair continued the rise to reach the resistance of the targeted bullish channel’s resistance at 169.70 level, which explains the direct correctional rebound towards 168.80, despite the attempts of providing mixed sideways trading, and there is a chance to activate the attempts of gathering gains by reaching 168.05.

While the price success in breaching the resistance and providing a positive close above it, will confirm its move to a new positive station, to begin recording new gains by its rally to 170.40 initially reaching the next barrier near 171.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 168.30 and 169.80

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

• The euro has initially gapped lower against the British pound only to turn around and find this footing again.
• We find ourselves near the 0.8550 level and the market has seen some action here previously.
• So, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Any short-term pullback should see plenty of support near the 0.85 level as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that’s been important previously.

The 50-day EMA is racing towards it and you can see that it could offer a little bit of support. Now, that being said, the market break into the upside faces challenges in the form of 0.86, but that opens up the door to 0.8650. That being said, this is a market that will have a lot of overhang to do with at the moment.

Slow Mover Most Times

Understand that this pair does tend to move somewhat slowly, and therefore I think a lot of retail traders look past it, but it’s a great swing trading pair to get involved with. I think at this point in time, there is a pretty significant cluster above, and it might be difficult for the euro to continue beyond the 0.8650 level.

This is a market that tends to frustrate those who are looking for quick and big moves, so be aware of that. This is a great measuring stick as to which one of these two currencies you might want to trade against the US dollar and in which direction because in this case the euro is stronger than the pound over the last couple of weeks and you will see that the euro has outperformed the British pound against the greenback. So, you can triangulate with this chart as well, using it as an indicator.

Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of regulated forex brokers to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• GBP/USD trades at a weekly high near 1.3600 on Tuesday.
• Improving market mood on the Iran-Israel ceasefire supports the pair’s climb.
• Markets await comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

After falling to its weakest level in a month early Monday, GBP/USD made a sharp U-turn and ended the day decisively higher. The pair preserves its bullish momentum and trades near 1.3600 in the European session on Tuesday as market focus shifts to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

News of Iran and Israel agreeing to a ceasefire helped the market mood improve late Monday and caused the US Dollar (USD) to come under heavy selling pressure. As risk flows continue to dominate the financial markets on Tuesday, the USD struggles to find demand and allows GBP/USD to continue to stretch higher. At the time of press, US stock index futures were rising between 0.7% and 1.2% on the day, while the USD Index was down about 0.25%.

After delivering the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, Fed Chairman Powell will respond to questions. Investors will scrutinize Powell’s comments for fresh hints on the timing of the next rate cut.

In an interview with CNBC last Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the Fed is in a position to cut the policy rate as early as July, arguing that they should not wait for the job market to crash to ease the policy. On a similarly dovish note, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that she would be in favour of lowering the policy rate at the next meeting, if inflation pressures were to stay contained.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 20% probability of a rate cut in July. In case Powell leaves the door open for a policy move next month, the USD could weaken further with the immediate reaction, triggering another leg higher in GBP/USD. Conversely, the USD could stage a rebound and cause the pair to correct lower if Powell opposes the view of a July rate cut by repeating that they need more data before deciding on the next policy move.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart edges higher but remains below 70, suggesting that GBP/USD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought. On the upside, 1.3630 (static level) aligns as the next resistance level before 1.3700 (static level, round level) and 1.3740 (static level).

Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.3580 (static level), 1.3530 (100-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).