Copper price continued to form bearish trading, to reach the target at $4.2600 forming an intraday support against the current trading, despite the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, the attempt of providing negative momentum from the main indicators that might push the price to press on the current support, while breaking it will extend the losses to $4.1600 reaching the support of the bullish channel at $4.0550.
Reminding you that activating the bullish attack again requires forming several bullish waves, to settle above $4.7400 level, to ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at $4.9800.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.1600 and $4.6200
Copper price continued to form bearish trading, to reach the target at $4.2600 forming an intraday support against the current trading, despite the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, the attempt of providing negative momentum from the main indicators that might push the price to press on the current support, while breaking it will extend the losses to $4.1600 reaching the support of the bullish channel at $4.0550.
Reminding you that activating the bullish attack again requires forming several bullish waves, to settle above $4.7400 level, to ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at $4.9800.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.1600 and $4.6200
The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is trading at around 1.15637 on Thursday, as Sterling underperforms against the majors, including the US Dollar.
Credit Agricole, however, sees scope for a further GBP/EUR rebound and added; “Looking at yield spreads, the bank considers that GBP/EUR should be trading above 1.1765.”
Scotiabank noted the potential for further position adjustment; “Extended bullish positioning has also left the EUR vulnerable to adjustment, as shown in the most recent CFTC report that saw the sizeable $18.4bn EUR long hold steady at the upper end of its historical range.”
There are still reservations over Pound fundamentals which will tend to curb the scope for further buying.
Markets remain very confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% next week.
The BoE data on Tuesday recorded a stronger pace of consumer lending for June. RSM UK chief economist Thomas Pugh commented; “Overall, money and credit data give a tentative sign of consumer spending picking up a little, and of business sentiment improving, however, growth will still be weak in Q2.”
He added; “For now, the MPC is likely to focus on that weaker growth outlook, meaning a rate cut in August is the odds-on bet.”
Credit Agricole notes that several price increases have already been priced in and commented; “We therefore believe that many BoE-related negatives are in the price of the GBP and do not expect the currency to extend its recent downtrend.”
It added; “The conclusion is consistent with our recent FX positioning data that suggests that the GBP is starting to look oversold and the results from our short-term fair value model that signalled that EUR/GBP is looking expensive at current levels.”
As far as Euro-Zone data is concerned, German GDP recorded a 0.1% contraction for the second quarter of 2025 after 0.4% growth previously which was in line with consensus forecasts. Year-on-year growth of 0.4% was above expectations of 0.2%.
ING commented; “All in all, despite the recent optimism, today’s GDP data is a painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth. The economy’s flirtation with yet another year of stagnation continues.”
Italy also recorded 0.1% GDP contraction for the second quarter.
The Euro-Zone recorded 0.1% GDP growth for the second quarter, marginally above consensus forecasts of no change with year-on-year growth of 1.4%.
Elsewhere, the headline Spanish inflation rate increased to 2.7% for July from 2.3% previously and above consensus forecasts of 2.3%.
The Euro-Zone business and consumer survey recorded an increase to a 5-month high of 95.8 for July from 94.2 in June and above expectations of 94.5.
The Euro-Zone inflation data is due on Friday with expectations that the headline rate will edge lower to 1.9% from 2.0% in June.
Higher inflation would tend to discourage further interest rate cuts and offer some Euro support.
Trade developments will continue to be monitored closely and could still spark increased volatility.
MUFG noted that there are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the US-EU trade deal as it is still a political declaration rather than an economic agreement at this stage. This could lead to renewed volatility in global markets.
According to the bank; “So, it’s clear from this deal and the lack of detail in parts of the US-Japan deal that ongoing negotiations are likely which may well include renewed threats in the future over tariff rates.”
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USD/JPY reverses an intraday dip led by upbeat data from Japan and the BoJ’s hawkish pause.
The uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike continues to undermine the JPY.
Reduced bets for a September rate cut by the Fed act as a tailwind for the USD and spot prices.
The USD/JPY pair attracted fresh buyers following an intraday slide to the 148.60-148.55 region and touched its highest level since early April during the first half of the European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on its gains, led by the upbeat domestic macro data and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish pause. This, along with the underlying US Dollar (USD) bullish sentiment, turns out to be a key factors acting as a tailwind for the currency pair.
A preliminary government report showed that Industrial Production in Japan unexpectedly rose 1.7% from the previous month in June, signaling resilience among manufacturers despite headwinds from US trade tariffs. A separate report revealed that Retail Sales in Japan grew for the 39th consecutive month, by 2.0% year-on-year in June, compared to the previous month’s downwardly revised reading of 1.9% and better than market expectations. The latter suggested that private consumption in Japan remained strong, which, along with the US-Japan trade deal, keeps hopes alive for the BoJ rate hike later this year.
In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking to reporters during the post-meeting press conference, said that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately and that the US-Japan trade deal reduces uncertainty over the economic outlook. Earlier, the central bank, as was expected, decided to maintain the status quo at the end of the July meeting. In the accompanying policy statement, the BoJ reiterated that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast. Adding to this, an upward revision of the BoJ’s inflation forecast revived bets for a further monetary policy tightening by the year-end.
The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be limited amid the growing acceptance that signs of cooling inflation in Japan and political uncertainty would complicate the BoJ’s policy normalization path. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s loss in the July 20 polls fueled concerns about Japan’s fiscal health amid calls from the opposition to boost spending and cut taxes. This suggests that prospects for BoJ rate hikes could be delayed for a bit longer. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell tempered hopes for an immediate rate cut, which favours the USD bulls and supports the USD/JPY pair.
In fact, Powell said it was too soon to say whether the Fed would cut rates at its next meeting and that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy has not been holding back the economy. Earlier on Wednesday, the US central bank left interest rates unchanged in a split decision that saw two governors dissenting for the first time since 1993. The market focus now shifts to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later during the North American session. The crucial inflation data will influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY daily chart
Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and could aim to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark amid positive oscillators on the daily chart. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the 150.40 area before spot prices eventually climb to the 151.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 149.00 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further corrective slide might continue to attract dip-buyers and find decent support near the 148.55 region. A convincing break below the latter, however, could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 148.00 mark and the overnight swing low, around the 147.80 area. Some follow-through selling would expose the 147.00 mark and the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 146.70 region. The latter coincides with last week’s swing low, which, if broken, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.
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Copper price is under strong bearish pressure to push it to decline below the support at $5.3200, to lose most of its previous gains to reach $4.3900, to face the moving average of 55.
Despite the main stability within the main bullish channel’s levels, the contradiction between the main indicators may increase the chances for suffering extra losses by targeting 161%Fibonacci extension level at $4.2650, while renewing the bullish attempts requires stepping above $4.7400 level, providing chance for recording gains again.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.5200
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Copper price is under strong bearish pressure to push it to decline below the support at $5.3200, to lose most of its previous gains to reach $4.3900, to face the moving average of 55.
Despite the main stability within the main bullish channel’s levels, the contradiction between the main indicators may increase the chances for suffering extra losses by targeting 161%Fibonacci extension level at $4.2650, while renewing the bullish attempts requires stepping above $4.7400 level, providing chance for recording gains again.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.5200
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
GBP/USD clings to small gains near 1.3250 in the European session.
The US Dollar’s rally takes a break ahead of macroeconomic data releases.
The technical outlook suggests bearish bias remains intact with a chance of a correction.
GBP/USD lost about 0.8% on Wednesday and touched its lowest level since mid-May, closing the fifth consecutive trading day in negative territory. The pair struggles to gather recovery momentum and trades at around 1.3250 in the European session on Thursday.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
2.73%
1.40%
1.27%
0.98%
1.86%
1.73%
1.97%
EUR
-2.73%
-1.32%
-1.40%
-1.72%
-0.85%
-0.98%
-0.75%
GBP
-1.40%
1.32%
-0.26%
-0.40%
0.47%
0.35%
0.57%
JPY
-1.27%
1.40%
0.26%
-0.29%
0.55%
0.44%
0.84%
CAD
-0.98%
1.72%
0.40%
0.29%
0.86%
0.75%
0.98%
AUD
-1.86%
0.85%
-0.47%
-0.55%
-0.86%
-0.12%
0.10%
NZD
-1.73%
0.98%
-0.35%
-0.44%
-0.75%
0.12%
0.23%
CHF
-1.97%
0.75%
-0.57%
-0.84%
-0.98%
-0.10%
-0.23%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Robust macroeconomic data releases from the United States (US) and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious tone on policy-easing fuelled a bullish rally in the US Dollar (USD) midweek, causing GBP/USD to decline sharply.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) first estimate showed that the United States’ (US) economy staged an impressive comeback following the 0.5% contraction seen in the first quarter. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%. Additionally, ADP Employment Change came in at 104,000 in July, beating analysts’ estimate of 78,000 by a wide margin.
Later in the day, the Fed announced that it maintained the policy rate at the range of 4.25%-4.5% in a widely expected decision. The policy statement showed that Governor Christopher Waller and Governor Michelle Bowman dissented, preferring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, which was also anticipated.
In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from confirming a rate cut at the next meeting in September, citing heathy conditions in the labor market and explaining that the current policy stance as being appropriate to guard against inflation risks. Moreover, Powell said that the policy was not holding back the economy despite being still modestly restrictive.
According go the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in September dropped toward 40% from above-60% before the Fed event. In turn, US Treasury bond yields pushed higher and the USD outperformed its rivals during the American trading hours.
The BEA will release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June on Thursday. Powell said that they expect the annual PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation to come in at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be featured in the US economic calendar. Ahead of Friday’s critical July employment report, investors could remain hesitant to take large positions based on this data.
It’s important to note that month-end flows on the last day of July could ramp up volatility toward the end of the European session and trigger irregular movements in the pair.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 30 after the short-lasting recovery attempt, suggesting that GBP/USD remains technically oversold.
On the upside, 1.3300 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as the first resistance level before 1.3330 (static level) and 1.3400 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement). Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3230 (static level), 1.3200 (static level, round level) and 1.3160 (beginning point of the uptrend).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
USD/JPY surged over 200 pips after perfectly respecting the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 147.50–147.60 and triggering a clean M15 confirmation entry.
The Fed’s pause on rate cuts, coupled with a still-cautious BOJ, reinforced dollar strength and provided the macro tailwind for the move.
Price is now anchored at a new 4-hour FVG (148.173–148.828) as the market awaits NFP, which could trigger the next leg toward 151.20–151.50 or break lower into deeper retracement zones.
USD/JPY surges 200+ pips
This week’s USD/JPY price action perfectly validated the top-down approach we discussed during the webinar. Check the video below for reference:
We began our analysis on the 4-hour chart, identifying a key Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the 147.50–147.60 zone. With the 4-hour timeframe providing the directional bias, we then dropped down to the 15-minute chart to refine our entry.
The plan was straightforward:
Wait for price to retrace into the 4-hour Bullish FVG.
Use the M15 chart to identify a confirmation trigger before entry.
Target the next liquidity cluster above 149.00.
What followed was a textbook Smart Money Concepts execution:
Price retraced into the 61.8–78.6% Fibonacci confluence and the 4-hour FVG (chart reference).
On the M15 chart, a bullish engulfing candle formed right at the zone, validating the setup.
USD/JPY then surged higher, clearing intermediate highs and tagging 149.19, exactly in line with our higher-timeframe targets.
This is the power of starting with a strong anchor timeframe and only dropping lower to fine-tune the entry.
What’s moved the USD/JPY?
The macro backdrop added conviction to our bullish bias:
Fed’s pause strengthens the dollar: As highlighted in the webinar, the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause further rate cuts was net positive for the U.S. dollar. With no additional liquidity entering the market, dollar demand firmed up, pushing USD/JPY higher.
BOJ’s subtle shift not enough: Although the Bank of Japan kept rates at 0.5% and raised inflation forecasts, the divergence with the Fed still favored the dollar. The market interpreted the BOJ’s stance as cautious, not aggressively hawkish.
Fading risk-off events: Initial safe-haven yen buying on tsunami alerts from the Kamchatka earthquake quickly reversed as fears subsided, allowing the broader bullish narrative to dominate.
Positive trade sentiment: Improved U.S.–Japan trade outlooks further reinforced dollar demand and risk-on sentiment.
Technical outlook
USD/JPY is currently testing the newly created 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone at 148.173–148.828, which remains the key support area in the short term. Price has already respected this zone once, and it is now serving as a base for the next potential leg higher.
Bullish scenario: Continuation from the FVG
If price holds its ground at the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone at 148.173–148.828, and price uses this area as a launchpad for the next upward leg. This scenario aligns with the existing bullish structure and broader dollar strength.
A confirmed rejection from the FVG with a strong bullish candle closing above 149.00 would validate upside continuation.
Targets:
First target: 151.20, which aligns with prior higher timeframe liquidity.
Extended target: 151.50, a major psychological and liquidity level.
Bearish scenario: Breakdown of FVG support
If buyers fail to hold the 4-hour FVG zone, it would signal a potential shift in short-term sentiment. Price breaking below 148.00 could trigger a deeper retracement, erasing the recent bullish momentum.
A decisive 4-hour or daily candle close below 148.00 would confirm breakdown and invalidate the bullish continuation thesis.
Targets:
First target: 147.50, which is the prior swing low.
Extended target: 147.00.
Final takeaway
The deciding factor for which scenario plays out on USD/JPY will ultimately come down to the U.S. dollar’s strength or weakness. With the NFP report due tomorrow, another round of volatility is possible, and traders should be prepared for sharp swings as the market reprices expectations.
To stay on the right side of the move, use the same process we followed in the recent setup:
Anchor your directional bias on the 4-hour chart.
Drop down to the M15 timeframe for confirmation at the key FVG zone or breakout levels.
Only act when price provides a clear signal, rather than pre-empting the move.
By aligning higher timeframe structure with lower timeframe confirmation, you avoid being caught in the noise and can execute with conviction when the market shows its hand.
Natural gas prices provided a new positive close above $3.050 level, forming the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern that appears in the above image, taking advantage of stochastic exit from the oversold level and providing positive momentum again.
The price success to settle above $3.050 will decrease the risk of moving to a new bearish station, providing chances to begin recording some of the gains by its rally to $3.320 and $3.450, while breaking the neckline and holding below it will force it to suffer big losses by reaching $2.710 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.10 and 3.320
Trend forecast: Bullish by the stability of $3.050
![200+ pips surge – Key levels and scenarios to watch [Video]](https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/image-1753943881259-1753943881259.png "200+ pips surge – Key levels and scenarios to watch [Video]")
