Despite Platinum price attempts to provide some positive trading, but its repeated stability below the barrier at $1275.00 level assists to motivate providing new bearish trading, attempting to decline below $1225.00, then targeting $1184.00 level, which represents the initial extra target for the near trading.

By the above image, we notice stochastic reach below 50 level, to increase the chances for gathering the required negative momentum to reach the mentioned negative stations. 

The expected trading range for today is between $1185.00 and $1260.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

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• The USD/JPY outlook remains mildly positive after the Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged.
• Analysts believe the upside may be capped by 145.50, observing a ranging behavior.
• Geopolitics could boost yen demand amid safe-haven flows.

The USD/JPY outlook remains slightly supported as the pair snapped a two-day winning streak after the Bank of Japan left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. Earlier this week, the pair saw a rise amid safe-haven flows triggered by the Middle East crisis.

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However, the yen bulls may struggle to find a meaningful trend as the Bank of Japan could postpone the rate hikes to the first quarter of 2026 due to tariff uncertainty. In the G7 meeting, the US and Japan could not reach an agreement on the tariffs. Japan’s Finance Minister Kato also stated that they have no plan to meet US Treasury Secretary Bessent. This is another factor that could cap yen’s gains. The US plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese vehicles and 24% tariffs on other imports.

According to the UOB analysts, the USD/JPY price may remain within a familiar range of 143.50 to 145.50 with the least probability of breaking the level.

On the other hand, the US dollar remains significantly weak amid last week’s dismal inflation figures. Moreover, the tariff uncertainty continues to linger, giving no room to recover. The currency is gradually losing its safe-haven status as well. Given the recent geopolitics, gold, and yen tend to perform way better than the dollar.

On the geopolitical front, the Iran-Israel conflict enters the fifth day with both sides aggressively attack. President Trump warned Iranians through Truth Social post to evacuate Tehran. A White House official clarified that the purpose of the post was to show urgency to bring Iran to the table for talks.

Investors are cautious as we head towards the FOMC meeting due tomorrow. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates on hold. However, the monetary policy statement is important to watch as market participants are keen about the policy path and number of cuts in 2025.

Key Events for USD/JPY Ahead

• Core Retail Sales m/m
• Retail Sales m/m

The core retail sales are expected to grow, while the retail sales may show a contraction.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Bullish Pinbar, Rising Trendline

The 4-hour chart shows a bullish pinbar and a rising trendline, lending enough support to the pair. Moreover, the price stays well above the 20-period SMA, which is another bullish sign. The RSI is at 56.0, heading north. These factors reveal that the buyers are mildly dominating. The immediate resistance comes at 145.00 ahead of 145.50.

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On the flip side, the close below the 20-period SMA could ignite the selling pressure leading towards a support at 144.00 ahead of 143.50.

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EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Strongly Bullish
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1480 – 1.1400 – 1.1320
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1600 – 1.1680 – 1.1770

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1370 with a target of 1.1520 and a stop-loss at 1.1260.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1630 with a target of 1.1300 and a stop-loss at 1.1700.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Ahead of significant economic events this week and the escalation of global tensions over the past weekend, we anticipate strong and exciting volatility in forex markets this week. According to licensed trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair jumped to the 1.1632 resistance level, its highest in three and a half years, before experiencing a swift sell-off last Friday. This moved the pair towards the 1.1488 support level before it closed the week settling around 1.1550. This bullish movement in the EUR/USD pair may react to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in the new trading week, following the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.

Also, financial markets will closely monitor any progress in trade negotiations between the United States and its major partners. Meanwhile, attention turns to the G7 summit in Canada, where leaders of the world’s largest economies will meet to discuss major global challenges. It’s also a busy week for monetary policy decisions from global central banks. The US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Trading Tips:

The Euro’s gains may be vulnerable to collapse if investor risk aversion increases amid successive global tensions.

Will the EUR/USD Continue to Rise in the Coming Days?

Technically, the overall outlook for the EUR/USD price remains bullish so far. Its recent gains and the breach of the 1.1600 resistance have pushed some technical indicators, led by the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines, to the brink of overbought readings. I anticipate that the EUR/USD will be a target for selling from above the 1.1600 resistance, especially if forex investors turn to buying the US Dollar as a safe haven amid global trade and geopolitical tensions. The nearest targets for the bulls are currently 1.1660, 1.1720, and 1.1800, respectively. These levels are sufficient to push all technical indicator readings into overbought territory.

Renewed selling of the Euro against the US Dollar is the more likely forecast given events in the Middle East and concerns about the military conflicts expanding to other countries. This threatens crude oil sources, leading to a setback for the future of global economic recovery, which would significantly harm the Euro. Based on the daily timeframe chart, the 1.1370 support level will remain a technical threat to the EUR/USD’s upward movement, as it could increase selling pressure towards the psychological support of 1.1200. At the start of this trading week, the EUR/USD is not anticipating any significant economic releases from either the Eurozone or the United States.

Impact of the Iranian/Israeli Conflict on EUR/USD Trading:

According to forex market experts, Israel’s strikes on Iran are stimulating a US Dollar rebound, causing the Euro to retreat against the US Dollar from its 43-month high. However, the EUR/USD pair saw a sharp decline to below 1.1520 on Friday, following the Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, amid escalating geopolitical tensions, a sharp rise in oil prices, and a decline in stock markets. According to trading experts at ING Bank, “We believe the starting point was already quite extended for this EUR/USD pair, and a return to the 1.14-1.15 range seems perfectly appropriate.”

Danske Bank noted that “the attack adds significant uncertainty to diplomacy, as US officials deny direct involvement and warn that it could hinder, or unexpectedly force, Iran into discussions.”

Overall, the Israeli strikes have added to the underlying trade and economic uncertainty. There is inevitably concern about any escalation as markets remain closed and safe-haven assets are increasingly sought. According to currency trading experts, “The geopolitical turmoil could temporarily distort the US dollar’s ​​downward trend and weigh on risk indicators.” They also point out that “the main difference from previous confrontations between Israel and Iran is the targeting of nuclear facilities, and while crude oil production does not appear to have been affected so far, markets must add a higher risk premium given Iran’s pivotal role in global oil supplies.”

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June 16, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Week Ahead Forecast: BoE Cuts to Weaken GBP Sterling

Foreign exchange strategists at RBC Capital Markets (RBC) see scope for the GBP/EUR exchange rate to strengthen to at least 1.20 over the next 2-3 months, provided risk conditions remain benign.

It does, however, forecast that the GBP to EUR rate will slide to 1.11 at the end of 2026.

In contrast, Scotiabank forecasts that the Pound Sterling can hold just above 1.20 against the Euro by the end of 2025

GBP/EUR dipped to 7-week lows during the week as evidence of a weaker labour market and GDP disappointment undermined the Pound. There was little net impact from the government spending review, although underlying reservations continued.

RBC sees a notable divergence between the short and medium-term views.

On a short-term view it commented; “As we head into the summer, GBP could stand to gain a bit more if markets settle into carry-hunting mode.”

The bank remains very cautious over the medium-term outlook; “As a long-term c/a deficit country, the UK runs a 280bn negative net international investment position with the rest of the world. It does not have the large stock of foreign assets invested in the US that the Euro area or Japan have.

RBC added; “It is also exposed to global trade wars as a small open economy and fiscally constrained in its ability to support growth through deficit spending.”

The Pound will inevitably be more vulnerable if the economy deteriorates.

The latest labour-market release suggested that there had been significant deterioration with a slide in payrolls, while unemployment hit a 4-year high and wages growth slowed more than expected.

GDP also contracted 0.3% for April after a 0.2% expansion the previous month.

HSBC commented; “our forecast is for a small fall back in Q2. That said, we should not over interpret. A negative GDP print in Q2 would not necessarily suggest recession risks, but payback from an artificially strong Q1.”

There are strong expectations that the Bank of England will hold interest rates at 4.25% in the week ahead. There is, however, speculation over more dovish guidance.

According to Danske Bank; “While markets have increasingly converged to our view of two further rate cuts from the BoE this year, we see risks further skewed to the downside. With slower activity and the scope for more aggressive BoE easing, we see this supporting our view a move higher in EUR/GBP, which we target at 0.87 in 6-12 months.” (GBP/EUR losses to just below 1.1500.)

According to Goldman Sachs; “We expect the labour market to loosen further in the coming months. A looser labour market is in turn likely to further reduce pay pressures.”

Commerzbank commented; “the market is now pricing in significantly more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year than at the beginning of the year. As we have emphasised several times, the path towards a stronger pound remains narrow, even if we do not want to overinterpret a single data release.”

Credit Agricole notes fundamentals reservations, but sees scope for Pound resilience; “Yet, as long as the UK economy continues to at least fare as well as the Eurozone, the GBP may still be able to eke out marginal gains over the EUR, especially as it retains a more compelling rate appeal.”

HSBC expects fundamentals will support the Euro; “Not only has the Eurozone growth narrative turned more positive following Germany’s large infrastructure and defence fiscal package, but the ECB has also returned the policy interest rate to the estimated neutral rate.

It added; “In contrast, the BoE has kept policy restrictive, some way above the estimated neutral rate. If UK data remain weak and CPI slows, markets may price more BoE rate cuts, which would likely weaken GBP against the EUR.”

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades in a narrow channel above 1.3550 on Monday.
• The BoE and the Fed will announce monetary policy decisions later in the week.
• The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but lacks momentum.

GBP/USD holds its ground at the beginning of the week and trades in a tight band above 1.3550. Although the technical outlook suggests that the bullish stance remains unchanged in the near term, investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of this week’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) policy meetings.

The US Dollar (USD) benefited from safe-haven flows on Friday and caused GBP/USD to end the day in negative territory, as geopolitical tensions escalated after Israel launched a military operation against Iran.

Over the weekend, Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes. A spokesperson for the Israeli military said on Monday that Israel has destroyed one third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers and added that they have achieved aerial superiority over Iran.

Meanwhile, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that the Iranian parliament is preparing a bill to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and added that they remain opposed to developing of weapons of mass destruction, per Reuters. Following these developments, markets remain relatively cautious, helping the USD stay resilient against its peers.

The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Monday. Ahead of the Fed and the BoE meetings, Retail Sales data from the US on Tuesday and Consumer Price Index data from the UK on Wednesday could trigger short-lasting market reactions.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 50 and GBP/USD trades above the 20-period, 50-period and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact in the short term but lacks momentum.

On the downside, the 100-period SMA forms the immediate support level at 1.3530 before 1.3460 (static level) and 1.3425 (200-period SMA). Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.3600 (mid-point of the ascending channel), 1.3630 (static level) and 1.3700 (static level, round level).

Platinum price activated the bearish correctional track in Friday’s trading after hitting the barrier at $1305.00, to gather some of the gains by reaching $1215.00 achieving the suggested initial target.

The continuation of the main indicators contradiction makes us keep preferring the correctional track, which might target $1185.00 and $1162.00 level, while renewing the bullish attempts requires providing positive closes above $1275.00 level, to increase the chances for reaching new bullish stations.

The expected trading range for today is between $1185.00 and $1260.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price activated the bearish correctional track in Friday’s trading after hitting the barrier at $1305.00, to gather some of the gains by reaching $1215.00 achieving the suggested initial target.

The continuation of the main indicators contradiction makes us keep preferring the correctional track, which might target $1185.00 and $1162.00 level, while renewing the bullish attempts requires providing positive closes above $1275.00 level, to increase the chances for reaching new bullish stations.

The expected trading range for today is between $1185.00 and $1260.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

June 15, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: 40-Month Best, but “Room for Downside Correction”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) jumped to a 40-month high just above 1.3630 late on Thursday as the dollar came under further pressure.

There was, however, a sharp retreat to lows near 1.3520 on Friday following Israel’s military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities before trading just below 1.3550.

There was renewed demand for safe-haven assets while the slide in risk appetite undermined the Pound in global markets.

According to ING, GBP/USD may be able to avoid sustained losses; “Cable has potentially a wide room for downside correction given how expensive it looks relative to rate differentials. But we have seen how structurally bearish USD bets are preventing dollar gains from being sustainable. So, we’d be more cautious on that side.”

UoB commented; “The likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3640 will remain intact as long as 1.3515 is not breached. Looking ahead, should GBP close above 1.3640, the focus will shift to 1.3700.”

A break below 1.3500 – 1.3515 would suggest a sharper correction.

MUFG noted the shift in trading dynamics; “In the FX market the initial response has been a flight to safety which has benefitted the Swiss franc, yen and US dollar.”

Commerzbank currency strategist Michael Pfister expects caution will prevail in the short term; “Until the danger of further escalation has passed, safe assets are likely to remain in demand.”

Danske Bank added; “The attack adds significant uncertainty to diplomacy, with US officials denying direct involvement while cautioning that it could either hinder or, unexpectedly, pressure Iran towards discussions.”

MUFG commented; “Market participants will now be watching closely to see how the conflict develops and whether it will have an actual disruptive impact on global supply chains including importantly the supply of oil.”

Rabobank discussed the potential implications; “the war between Israel and Iran, the likely involvement of the US and the possible involvement of other countries in the region, will take center stage today and in the coming days. Which scenario is going to develop?”

According to the bank; “The best-case scenario, which markets seem to be pricing in, is a short and fast operation that will deliver Israel and the US a major geopolitical victory. However, in terms of probability of this scenario unfolding, how easy is it is to take out an entire country with a relatively strong military in 24-48 hours?”

It added; “There are several escalation scenarios. The worst case is a long, drawn-out war that spreads to Hormuz and/or Saudi/UAE, and to global sites via proxies.”

The Pound is also liable to be hampered by reservations over the domestic economy and speculation over more dovish Bank of England guidance at next week’s policy meeting.

Danske Bank noted the weaker than expected GDP data released on Thursday; “The data yesterday follows weaker than expected labour market data out earlier this week and highlights that the UK economy is experiencing more underlying weakness following a strong start to the year.”

There are still doubts whether the dollar can gain sustained support.

Scotiabank commented; “The relative loss of investor appetite for U.S. assets is increasingly becoming a forecasting issue. Concerns about U.S. fiscal plan(s) have led to a rise in U.S. borrowing costs that have spread to other markets.”

Traders are also still very wary over tariff developments. President Trump stated that higher tariffs would be extended to domestic appliances.

According to ABN Amro; “The overall impact on the economy would not be favorable, and the repercussions for financial markets could be significantly worse. This reputational damage has arguably been a major factor driving the dollar’s devaluation in recent months.

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

June 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.16 by 2026, 1.20 by 2027 say Investment Bank

Commerzbank forecasts that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) will advance to 1.16 at the end of this year and 1.20 by the end of 2026.

Morgan Stanley expects stronger EUR/USD gains to 1.25 by the second quarter of 2026.

The dollar was subjected to renewed selling during the week with the currency index sliding to the lowest level since February 2022. In this environment, EUR/USD surged to 43-month highs above 1.16.

The US currency did secure a reprieve late in the week as risk appetite dipped and oil prices surged after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. EUR/USD retreated to near 1.15, but with strong buying on dips.

ING expects caution will prevail initially; “The key difference from previous Israel-Iran standoffs is that nuclear facilities have now been targeted, and while oil production does not seem to be affected just yet, markets have to add in a bigger risk premium given the crucial role of Iran in global oil supply.”

The latest US inflation data was weaker than expected with core consumer prices increasing 0.1% in May with the year-on-year increase held at 2.8%.

Markets remain confident that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at this week’s meeting, but with greater confidence in significant cuts later in the year.

According to Commerzbank; “While it is unlikely that Trump will dismiss Fed Chair Powell before the end of his term, he may nominate a Fed chairman more in line with his views next year.”

Markets are still fretting over the impact of tariffs and tensions will increase during the reminder of June.

Aviva Investors senior economist Vasileios Gkionakis noted the structural concerns as investors fret about persistent fiscal deficits, weakening foreign demand for government debt, and institutional uncertainty.

He added; “The US has been enjoying a significant privilege for decades. This is now shifting, with the US likely to run large fiscal deficits for years and against a backdrop of an extended net international investment position.”

ABN looked at multiple risks contained in the proposed Budget Bill.

According to the bank; “The overall impact on the economy would not be favorable, and the repercussions for financial markets could be significantly worse. This reputational damage has arguably been a major factor driving the dollar’s devaluation in recent months.”

Morgan Stanley commented; “We think that this weakening trend continues, and we now forecast the DXY to fall an additional 9% over the next 12 months to 91, with USD weakness most pronounced against its safe-haven peers – EUR, JPY, and CHF.”

Investment banks also see scope for further inflows into the Euro area.

BNP Paribas has calculated that if Dutch and Danish pension funds reduce dollar exposure to 2015 levels as a share of total assets under management, they have a further $217 billion to sell.

HSBC added; “Dutch pension funds are the largest in the EU and their investment behaviour often indicates broader European investment flows. If European investors continue to increase FX hedge ratios, it will likely provide further support to EUR-USD.”

BNP also agrees that ECB policy is close to turning and is positive on the Euro; “Our analysis suggests there is much more still to come.” It maintains a EUR/USD target of $1.20.

Commerzbank noted; “our economists expect the German fiscal package to provide a significant boost in the coming year. After many years of struggling, this should encourage investors to take a closer look at the euro area again, which should benefit the euro.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts