• The EUR/USD forecast shows a sudden decline in the euro.

• The new trade deal leaves the EU with a 15% tariff.

• Traders are preparing for the FOMC meeting and the NFP report.

The EUR/USD forecast shows a sudden decline in the euro after a trade deal between the US and the European Union. The initial relief has faded, and traders believe the trade deal was not the best possible outcome. Meanwhile, market participants are gearing up for the FOMC meeting and US employment figures this week. 

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The US has signed a trade deal with the EU, finally easing concerns about a 30% tariff set to take effect next month. Moreover, the deal came at the right time since the August 1 deadline is approaching. However, it still left the EU with a 15% tariff. Initially, top officials were going for a zero-tariff agreement. Therefore, the outcome was still not the best. As a result, the euro collapsed on Monday.

“The deal’s investment provision will draw capital flows out of Europe, strengthening the dollar overall against the euro,” said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“Taken together, weaker relative growth prospects and a deteriorating balance of payments argue for a gradual depreciation of EUR/USD once the initial relief fades, notwithstanding the overnight uptick,” he said.

Meanwhile, traders are preparing for a packed week with the FOMC policy meeting and the US nonfarm payrolls report.

EUR/USD key events today

Market participants do not expect any key releases from the US or the Eurozone. Therefore, focus will remain on the recent trade deal.

EUR/USD technical forecast: Bearish momentum surges past the 1.1701 level

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has collapsed and broken below the 30-SMA and the 1.1701 key support level. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, showing a shift in sentiment to bearish. 

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Initially, the price was trading above the SMA and making higher highs and lows. At the same time, bulls were eyeing the 1.1800 key resistance. However, they were unable to get to the level as bears suddenly gained enough momentum to push below the 30-SMA. 

With bears in the lead, the price might soon start making lower highs and lows. It might pull back to retest the 1.1701 level before dropping to retest the 1.1600 support. However, this will only happen if the price closes below 1.1701. Otherwise, bulls might return to challenge the 1.1800 key resistance.

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Platinum price ended the correctional trading by testing the extra support at $1381.00, forming a confirmation key for the continuation of the positive continuation, attacking the barrier at $1420.000 level, to find an exit for resuming the bullish attempts.

Stochastic begins to provide positive momentum by its repeated stability above 20 level, which makes us wait for breaching the current barrier and holding above it, to ease the mission of targeting $1458.00 level, and surpassing it will provide a chance for achieving new gains that might extend to $1480.00 and $1507.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1390.00 and $1458.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The Euro has broken higher against the Japanese Yen during the trading session here on Friday to break above the 173 Yen level again.
• This is a market that has been pretty interesting over the last several weeks as we continue to find reasons one way or another to get long. have no interest whatsoever in shorting this pair because I don’t have any interest in owning the Japanese yen.
• The Bank of Japan has to deal with a bond market that is struggling.

There have been a couple of days here where there just hasn’t been much in the way of bids. And if that is going to continue to be the way forward, you have major problems.

Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you’re looking at a central bank in Japan that may have to get involved in quantitative easing again, and that could send this pair much higher. You can see over the last couple of years; it’s just been a steady grind higher. We did have a pullback and a little bit of sideways action, and now we’re approaching the 175 yen level, which is a huge barrier going back to the middle of July of last year.

Bullish Market. Don’t Fight It.

The market is bullish. We just flagged a little bit of a bullish flag and there’s just nothing on this chart to think about shorting. If we broke down below the 171 yen level, then maybe we could go look into the 50 day EMA, which is closer to the 169 yen level, but I just don’t see that happening. I certainly wouldn’t be a seller of that.

I’d be looking for a buy on the dips that show us some type of opportunity to start piling into the euro and away from the Japanese yen again, even the US dollar, which has struggled quite significantly against the Japanese yen has shown itself to be somewhat resilient against the Japanese yen. That just shows you how weak the currency is.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

July 27, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: “GBP Strength was Short-lived”

Stagflation Fears Continue to Undermine Pound Support, GBP/USD Risks Key Downside Break

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) dipped towards 1.3500 on Thursday and retreated below this level in early Europe on Friday with further selling.

The dollar has secured net gains in global markets while the UK data has not provided Pound support.

Overall risk appetite has also stumbled on Friday which has also unsettled the Pound and GBP/USD has posted sharp losses to lows at 1.3425.

According to UoB; “upward momentum has largely faded. To look at it another way, the GBP strength was short-lived.”

It considers that the break below 1.3450 would increase the risk of further selling.

Key support for the Pound is close to 1.3370 and any break below this level would cause further important damage to the outlook.

Bank of America commented; “To say that GBP has had an inauspicious start to H2 is an understatement.”

UK retail sales volumes increased 0.9% for June after a revised 2.8% slide for May, but slightly below consensus forecasts of a 1.2% gain for the month.

There was a rebound in food sales after a sharp decline previously.

According to the ONS; “The warm weather in June helped to brighten sales, with supermarket retailers reporting stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases. It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine.”

RSM head of retail Jacqui Baker noted that there was still an important element of caution; “While the June figures are welcome news and consumer confidence ticked up last month, nervousness among consumers persists, and the unexpected rise in inflation won’t have helped. The higher price of essentials such as food and fuel will only add to the reluctance among consumers to spend as their discretionary income shrinks.”

The latest GfK consumer confidence index reported a slight decline to -19 for July from -18 the previous month.

There was significant evidence of caution with consumers ramping up savings to the highest level since 2007.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, commented; “With speculation growing over possible tax rises in the Autumn budget, and price pressure contributing not just to higher inflation already but also to the likelihood of worse inflation to come, the news is worrying.”

According to MUFG; “The PMI data was for July and underlines the likelihood that the UK economy has got off to a weak start in Q3.”

It added; “This grim news was clearly more impactful than the positive news of a trade deal being confirmed between the UK and India.”

ING noted that survey evidence has indicated economic vulnerability and a weaker labour market at the same time as on-going upward pressure on prices.

It commented that; “The latest UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) perfectly encapsulate the headache the Bank of England faces right now.”

The bank added; “Which of these trends – higher inflation or lower hiring – matters more? This is not a new debate and one that’s far from resolved, setting up another divisive August Bank of England meeting. We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see another three-way vote split, akin to what we saw in May.”

According to the IMF; “In an environment of weak growth, persistent inflationary pressures may create “stagflation” risks, complicating the monetary policy stance and putting pressure on public finances.

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• The USD/JPY weekly forecast points to cautious tones from Powell and Ueda.

• The yen gained after Prime Minister Ishiba said he would stay on.

• A surprise trade deal between Japan and the US boosted the yen.

The USD/JPY weekly forecast points to cautious tones during next week’s Fed and Bank of Japan policy meetings.

Ups and downs of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY price ended the week red but far above its lows. The price fluctuated throughout the week as traders focused on elections, tariffs, and economic data. The ruling party in Japan lost its majority in the upper house. However, the yen gained after Prime Minister Ishiba said he would stay on.

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Meanwhile, a surprise trade deal between Japan and the US further boosted the yen. It lowered Japan’s reciprocal tariff from 25% to 15%. However, the pair reversed its decline after unemployment claims data revealed resilience in the US labor market, pushing the dollar higher.

Next week’s key events for USD/JPY

Next week, the US will release its GDP report, business activity data, and the nonfarm payrolls. At the same time, traders will focus on the FOMC policy meeting for clues on the next rate cut. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is also set to meet on Thursday. 

Both the Fed and the BoJ are likely to keep delaying their next moves due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Therefore, Powell might remain cautious about rate cuts while Ueda will remain cautious about rate hikes.

USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bulls retarget the 149.01 resistance level 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bouncing towards the 149.01 resistance after retesting the 22-SMA support line. The price has been in a corrective move between a key support trendline and the 149.01 key resistance level. Within this area, the price has chopped through the SMA, a sign that bears and bulls are almost equally matched. 

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The corrective move came after a downtrend that paused at the 140.01 support level. Therefore, it might only be a pause as bears regain momentum. If this is the case, the price will likely soon break below the support trendline. To retest the 140.01 support. Such a move would also allow the previous downtrend to continue. 

On the other hand, if bulls are ready to take charge, the price will break above the 149.01 key resistance level. This would allow USD/JPY to retest the 154.02 resistance level.

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The CADCHF pair declined in its last intraday levels, to gather the gains of its previous rises, attempting to gather bullish momentum that might assist it to breach the critical resistance at 173.25, and attempting to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of negative overlapping signals appearance, amid the continuation of the positive support due to its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (CADCHF) price in its upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by breaching the mentioned resistance at 173.25 initially, to target its next resistance at 174.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.85 support and 173.80 resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

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July 25, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: Long-term GBP/USD Uptrend Faltering Again?

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate pushed to a peak just below 1.3590 before a retreat to near 1.3550.

The latest UK data triggered some fresh unease over the outlook and hampered the Pound, but dollar confidence remained weak amid signs of higher inflation which would intensify the debate surrounding Federal Reserve policy.

Scotiabank considers that the long-term GBP/USD uptrend could be faltering again and added; “We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3500 support and 1.3580 resistance.”

According to UoB; “Although the outlook for GBP remains positive, short-term conditions are deeply overbought, and the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to come into view so soon.”

On a longer-term view, Danske Bank expects that GBP/USD will creep higher to 1.38 on a 12-month view.

As far as UK data is concerned, the UK PMI manufacturing index edged higher to a 6-month high of 48.2 for July from 47.7 previously and just above consensus forecasts.

The services-sector index, however, dipped to a 2-month low of 51.2 from 52.8 in June and compared with expectations of no change for the month.

The CBI industrial trends index improved slightly to -30 for July from -33 previously, but this was below consensus forecasts of -27 and indicated further stresses in the manufacturing sector.

The ONS also reported that UK vehicle production in the first half of 2025 slumped to the lowest level since 1953.

The issue of US interest rates and Fed independence will remain a key market concern.

Markets remain very confident that there will be no change in interest rates at next week’s meeting and the potential for a September rate cut has also drifted lower to near 35%.

There are still important concerns surrounding political pressure on the Fed with the future of Chair Powell still a major talking point.

There has been further speculation that the Administration will find a pretext to dismiss Powell or undermine his authority.

Rabobank commented; “Later today, Trump will visit the Fed to take a look at the construction site where the $2.5 billion renovation project is taking place that could become the “cause” that the Trump administration is looking for to fire Powell if they want to get rid of him before his term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026. That should certainly move the process to find a new Chair into high gear.”

The latest US data will complicate the argument surrounding Federal Reserve policy and Administration demands for lower interest rates.

The PMI manufacturing index dipped to a 7-month low of 49.5 for July from 52.9 and below consensus forecasts of 52.7.

The services-sector index, however, increased to a 7-month high of 55.2 from 52.9 in June.

Overall business confidence dipped again with the second-weakest reading for 30 months.

Costs increased at the second-highest rate since January 2023 while output charges increased at the second-highest rate since September 2022.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence noted a strong start to the third quarter, but commented; “Whether this growth can be sustained is by no means assured. Growth was worryingly uneven and overly reliant on the services economy.”

On inflation, he added; “The rise in selling prices for goods and services in July suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the coming months as these price hikes feed through to households.”

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has raised higher against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday to touch the 148 yen level and by extension, the 200 day EMA. This is a market that I do think breaks out eventually, but as things stand right now, it is rather difficult to get above here. If we do, then the 149 yen level is your next target. Anything above there opens up the floodgates. I expect to see that sooner or later, I just don’t know if we’ll see it right at this moment.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen yet again against the US dollar to reach the 0.6550 region yet again. We are in a fairly obvious uptrending channel, we are right in the middle of it, so this is about as neutral as it gets. Longer term, it does look like we want to go higher, but it’s more of a grind, it’s not really a huge move that I think it is going to push this market, I think it’s going to lull people to sleep for some time. And in fact, if you draw the channel out a little bit, maybe make it a little bit longer in time, you can even make an argument that we’re just continuing the same channel we were in before that big dip in early April, with the tariffs being announced.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday trading, to attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of the negative signals emergence, to gather its positive strength that might assist it to recover and rise again, leaning on the support of its EMA50, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bullish bias that supports this trend.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in the upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at $3,500, to target the critical resistance level at $3,800.

The expected trading range is between $3,450 support and $3,800 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

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The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday trading, to attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of the negative signals emergence, to gather its positive strength that might assist it to recover and rise again, leaning on the support of its EMA50, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bullish bias that supports this trend.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in the upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at $3,500, to target the critical resistance level at $3,800.

The expected trading range is between $3,450 support and $3,800 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

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High-accuracy trading signals delivered directly to your Telegram. Subscribe to specialized packages tailored for the world’s most important markets – all powered by BestTradingSignal.com .

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Weekly performance report available here: Trading Signal Results – Week of July 14–18, 2025