EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Upward.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Support Levels: 1.1300 – 1.1220 – 1.1170.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1385 – 1.1460 – 1.1530.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy Euro-Dollar from the 1.1240 support level with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss of 1.1150.
• Sell Euro-Dollar from the 1.1430 resistance level with a target of 1.1100 and a stop-loss of 1.1510.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

we expect the EUR/USD price to move within narrow ranges around last week’s closing levels, awaiting market and investor reactions to this week’s significant economic events and data. These include the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions and US jobs figures. The Euro-Dollar is currently in a neutral position with a greater upward bias, led by bulls pushing towards the 1.1400 resistance level.

Technically, this resistance is sufficient to push the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) away from the midline and also lift the MACD indicator lines higher. Today’s Euro-Dollar trading will be influenced by the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for European economies. This will start with the Spanish reading at 10:15 AM EEST, followed by the French, Italian, and German readings, respectively. The US reading will be later on the same day at 5:00 PM EEST. Three hours later, there will be new statements from Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.

US-European Trade Dispute and Its Impact on Exchange Rates

There will be important repercussions for trade negotiations between the European Union and the United States. For example, trade talks between the EU and the US will see a reduction in the urgency to make concessions. According to forex trading experts, the influence of Trump administration trade representatives in their negotiations with trade partners has certainly diminished. Consequently, the selling of the US dollar was one of the largest “tariff deals,” and thus, with tariffs now threatened, this position is expected to unravel. However, for now, the Euro’s losses against the dollar have been minimal.

In another context, analysts pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s May monetary policy meeting minutes were relatively hawkish, with comments indicating that almost all committee participants noted the risk of inflation persisting longer than expected. Overall, financial markets believe that the probability of a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July does not exceed 20%.

Uncertainty surrounding the economy as a whole will be renewed, and there will also be an impact on budget revenues.

Forecasts for ECB Decisions This Week:

The European Central Bank will hold its latest monetary policy meeting this week, with financial markets confident of an additional 25 basis point cut in the deposit rate to 2.00%. RBC Capital Markets expects a difficult meeting, stating: “We believe there are sharp divisions on the board, and we would be very surprised if the decision was unanimous.” There is also much less conviction about the outlook. According to ING: “Unless trade tensions escalate strongly, we believe the ECB will prefer to take a wait-and-see approach over the summer.”

According to the results from the economic calendar data, German retail sales data was weaker than expected, falling by 1.1% for April. Therefore, Wells Fargo does not expect sustained support for the Euro, stating: “In our view, the European currency will continue to face the reality of weak sentiment and confidence surveys, and disappointing growth performance.”

Credit Agricole is also cautious about the Euro’s outlook, as the Eurozone remains in a dilemma, with the latest estimates pointing to stagnant economic activity and a significant slowdown in inflation. In this context, the ECB is likely to lower its growth and inflation forecasts, along with cutting interest rates for the seventh consecutive time.

European Stock Market Performance and Future Gains

According to trading on stock brokerage platforms, both the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 indices closed near flat last Friday but achieved gains exceeding 3.5% in May, marking their strongest monthly performance since January. The oil and natural gas, healthcare, and utilities sectors led this rally. Investors were digesting new inflation data from the Eurozone’s largest economies, with consumer price index figures showing a decline in inflation in Germany, Italy, and Spain, which could give the European Central Bank more room to cut borrowing costs at its upcoming meeting this week.

Meanwhile, increasing uncertainty regarding the ongoing US trade dispute prevented further gains. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated President Donald Trump’s tariffs, just one day after a trade court ruled that he had exceeded his authority. In the interim, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that trade talks with China are “a bit stalled.” Among individual stocks, SAP (+1.2%), Siemens (+1.6%), and L’Oréal (+1.7%) were among the best performers, while Sanofi lagged the most, falling by 4.4%.

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Platinum price forced to delay the bullish rally, due to  the continuation of the main indicators contradiction, to reach below the initial support near $1056.00, but the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image will decrease the negative effect in the current trading, depending on forming an extra support at 38.2%Fibonacci correction level by its stability near $1042.00.

Therefore, we expect to form weak sideways trading until we gather the positive momentum, which allows it to attack the$1068.00 level, then attempts to resume the bullish attack, by targeting the top at $1100.00 reaching the next main target near $1125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1042.00 and $1068.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

Platinum price forced to delay the bullish rally, due to  the continuation of the main indicators contradiction, to reach below the initial support near $1056.00, but the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image will decrease the negative effect in the current trading, depending on forming an extra support at 38.2%Fibonacci correction level by its stability near $1042.00.

Therefore, we expect to form weak sideways trading until we gather the positive momentum, which allows it to attack the$1068.00 level, then attempts to resume the bullish attack, by targeting the top at $1100.00 reaching the next main target near $1125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1042.00 and $1068.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

I wrote on 25^th May that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of Bitcoin following a daily (New York) close above $111,743. This did not set up.
2. Long of the GBP/USD currency pair. This gave a loss of 0.54%.
3. Short of the USD/ZAR currency pair. This gave a loss of 1.01%.

The overall loss of 1.55% equals a loss of 0.52% per asset.

Last week was broadly very quiet, with stock markets inching higher, especially in Germany, where the DAX reached a new all-time high before turning more bearish towards the end of the week. There were no dramatic news releases or unexpected economic data to change the mood from mildly risk-on.

Last week’s most important data releases were:

1. US Core PCE Price Index – as expected.
2. US FOMC Meeting Minutes – no surprises.
3. US Preliminary GDP – just a tick lower than expected.
4. German Preliminary CPI (inflation) – as expected.
5. Australian CPI (inflation) – just a tick higher than expected.
6. RBNZ Official Cash Rate, Rate Statement, and Policy Statement – a 0.25% cut as expected, although a slightly dovish tilt was made on the path of future rate cuts, although this had little effect on the Kiwi.
7. US Unemployment Claims – slightly worse than expected.

After markets closed for the week, President Trump announced the tariff on steel and aluminium will be doubled this Wednesday from 25% to 50%. This will likely produce a more risk-off market as the week gets underway, but there is always a chance that a deal will be announced before Wednesday.

The coming week has what will probably turn out to be a more decisive schedule of high-impact data releases.

This week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings
2. European Central Bank Policy Meeting
3. US ISM Services PMI
4. US JOLTS Job Openings
5. Bank of Canada Policy Meeting
6. Swiss CPI (inflation)
7. Australia GDP

The most impactful events on the Forex market will likely be the top two items.

For the month of June 2025, I forecast that the EUR/USD currency pair will increase in value.

For the month of May 2025, I made no monthly forecast as although there was a long-term trend against the US Dollar, the price action suggested that a major bullish reversal could be underway.

As there were no unusually large price movements in Forex currency crosses over the past week, I make no weekly forecast.

The US Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the Japanese Yen was the weakest. However directional movement was very low. Volatility decreased last week, with only 7% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. Next week’s volatility is likely to be higher.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a hammer candlestick which closed higher but with a large upper week. I see this as, surprisingly to some, a bearish candlestick. The price remains close to the multi-year low made a few weeks ago. There is a clear long-term bearish trend.

The bullish case is represented by the fact that the price has not yet broken the multi-year low, and in this area at the low we have a horizontal level which has already proved to be strong support, at 97.67.

I think it makes sense to be trading in line with the long-term trend which will be short of the greenback. If there is short-term bearish momentum when the price opens this week, you should be more confident in going short here.

The EUR/USD currency pair made a new multi-year high in April above the round number at $1.1500, but since then it made a bearish retracement followed by another upwards movement. However, that sounds much more bearish than the price action really looks. It seems the bullish momentum is running out of steam.

Despite that reason to be cautious for bulls, the price is still not far from a multi-year high, so a bullish push could dramatically change the technical scenario here.

Another factor that might give bulls a tailwind is the long-term bearish trend in the greenback, and the impending tariff deadline in July, as well as president Trump’s announcement a few hours ago that tariffs on steel and aluminium would be doubled from 25% to 50% effective this Wednesday, might also help to push the price higher.

I will enter a new long trade in this currency pair if we get a daily (New York) close above $1.1513.

The GBP/USD currency pair reached a new multi-year high price at the start of last week, well above $1.3500. However, it then fell over the remainder of the week, although trend traders are likely to mostly still be long here.

I see the long-term strength in the British Pound (boosted by higher than expected inflation producing an outlook of relatively high interest rates) coupled with the long-term bearish trend in the US Dollar as likely to produce more long-term bullish breakouts here, which might be successfully traded with a relatively tight trailing stop – about 1 ATR daily of a long-term value tends to work best with this currency pair.

I will enter a new long trade if we get a daily (New York) close above $1.3558.

The S&P 500 Index rose last week as risk sentiment improved a little, with the price ending the near local highs above the support level at 5,777, which is also confluent with the 200-day moving average, as can be seen in the daily chart below.

President Trump’s announcement that he will double the tariff on steel and aluminium this Wednesday is not necessarily believed as certain to take effect, but it is quite likely to produce a bearish open when the US stock market opens this week. This agenda item will also likely cause markets to start thinking that the July tariff deadline is also approaching for the whole world’s trading relationship with the USA, so that could be another factor adding to bearishness here.

Although the price is trading not very far from its record high and above the 200-day simple moving average, it is worth noting that this Index is below its level of 6 months ago, which is a bearish sign – showing the price has basically been trading sideways for half a year.

On the other hand, the fact that the price seems to be strongly respecting the confluent support area at about 5,777 is a bullish factor.

I will be very to go long of this Index in the unlikely event that we get a daily close above 6,142.

Bitcoin continued to decline, quite firmly, over the week. The price is now looking a little heavy as it threatens the $102,500 which looks like a pivotal line in the sand. If the price gets below $101,500 it will be more than 3 times the long-term ATR from the highest daily close, which will shake out most trend traders, and possibly produce a stronger fall.

I will enter a new long trade if we get a daily (New York) close above $111,743 this week but I think this is unlikely to happen.

The shine seems to have come off Bitcoin, but this area around $101,500 to $102,500 does look pivotal, so a bullish bounce from there might signify a good long trade entry opportunity, but I will be more cautious.

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of Bitcoin following a daily (New York) close above $111,743.
2. Long of the GBP/USD currency pair following a daily (New York) close above $1.3513.
3. Long of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily (New York) close above $1.3558.
4. Long of the S&P 500 Index pair following a daily (New York) close above 6,142.

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• GBP/USD fluctuates in a tight range below 1.3500 on Friday.
• The near-term technical picture highlights the pair’s indecisiveness.
• The US economic calendar will feature PCE inflation data for April.

GBP/USD managed to rebound from the multi-day low it set early Thursday and ended the day with small gains. The pair struggles to gather directional momentum early Friday and trades in a narrow band below 1.3500.

The US Dollar (USD) failed to preserve its strength on Thursday as the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit decided to reinstate US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which were blocked by the Court of International Trade on Wednesday.

Additionally, the worse-than-expected weekly Initial Jobless Claims data further weighed on the USD, allowing GBP/USD to shake off the bearish pressure.

The US economic calendar will feature the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, for April later in the day.

Markets expect the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise by 0.1% on a monthly basis in April after remaining unchanged in March. In case the data comes in at 0.3%, or higher, investors could see this as a development that could delay the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut to beyond July. In this scenario, the USD could outperform its rivals and cause GBP/USD to push lower. On the other hand, a negative print in this data could feed into market expectation for a July rate cut and hurt the USD.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 25% probability of a 25 basis points reduction in the policy rate in July.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves sideways slightly below 50 and GBP/USD trades at around the 50-period and the 20-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reflecting a lack of directional momentum.

On the upside, 1.3500 (mid-point of the ascending channel, round level) could be seen as the first resistance level ahead of 1.3600 (end-point of the uptrend).

Looking south, interim support could be seen at 1.3430 (static level) before 1.3380-1.3370, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart align. A daily close below this area could attract technical sellers and open the door for another leg lower toward 1.3300 (static level, round level).

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the early hours on Friday, only to see the market turn around and fall apart. By doing so, the market looks very much like it is still stuck with consolidation here. And I think we are probably trying to settle into a new range that we are comfortable with. That being said, I also recognize that if we break down below the 1.12 level, that’s a big win for the US dollar. Now, I don’t expect that in the next trading session or two, but the reality is, we have run out of upward momentum and that is something to keep an eye on.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The dollar initially fell against the Japanese yen, but it looks like it’s trying to fight back. So, we’ll have to see how things play out. If we can recapture the 145 yen level, I think that would be strong for the U.S. against the Japanese yen. And it’s worth noting that there is an interest rate differential that is quite wide in this market. So, you can take advantage of that while you’re waiting for the uptrend to continue. However, if we break down below the 142 yen level, we could see this market drop down to the 140 yen level. Although right now, I think there’s enough pushback that at best, we’re probably looking at range bound bottoming with an upward tilt.

The GBPJPY pair touched 196.30 level, to face a strong obstacle against the attempts of resuming the bullish attack, which forces it to form a strong bullish rebound, to settle below the extra support at 194.20, announcing its surrender to the bearish correctional bias domination again.

The stability below the broken extra support and providing negative momentum by stochastic will increase the chances for suffering extra losses that might extend to 193.10 reaching to 192.45, while regaining the bullish bias requires a positive close above 195.35 level, reinforcing the chances for breaching the mentioned barrier and moving to a new positive station.

The expected trading range for today is between 193.10 and 194.90

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair touched 196.30 level, to face a strong obstacle against the attempts of resuming the bullish attack, which forces it to form a strong bullish rebound, to settle below the extra support at 194.20, announcing its surrender to the bearish correctional bias domination again.

The stability below the broken extra support and providing negative momentum by stochastic will increase the chances for suffering extra losses that might extend to 193.10 reaching to 192.45, while regaining the bullish bias requires a positive close above 195.35 level, reinforcing the chances for breaching the mentioned barrier and moving to a new positive station.

The expected trading range for today is between 193.10 and 194.90

Trend forecast: Bearish

May 29, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: “Downward Bias Toward 1.3395” say UoB

The dollar secured net gains on Thursday after a US court ruled that the US Administration unilateral tariffs based on emergency legislation were not constitutional.

The bigger impact was a further decline in demand for safe-haven currencies with the yen and Swiss franc posting sharp losses. Asian currencies overall lost ground while the Pound was resilient in global markets.

The dollar failed to hold its best levels as Trump will not roll over and accept the Court’s judgement with all avenues explored to pursue his trade policy.

The decision will also inject another level of economic uncertainty, especially as the Administration will appeal against the ruling.

There was still an immediate boost to risk appetite with strong gains for equity futures.

US S&P 500 futures were around 1.5% higher and the FTSE 100 index will open higher

The Pound was also cushioned by stronger risk conditions with the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate near 1.3450 from 1.3415 lows.

According to UoB; “Today, we expect GBP to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395. A sustained break below this level seems unlikely.”

On a slightly longer-term view, it expects a 1.3330/1.3530 range rather than of a sustained decline

The Court of International Trade ruled that an emergency law invoked by the White House does not give the president unilateral authority to impose tariffs on international countries.

According to Court the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive powers to regulate commerce with other nations and this is not superseded by the president’s remit to safeguard the economy.

It added that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a 1977 law that Trump cited to justify the tariffs, does not give him the power to impose the sweeping tariffs.

Tariffs based on the crackdown of fentanyl smuggling were also declared unconstitutional.

The sectoral tariffs in areas such as Aluminium and steel are not affected.

It gave the Administration 10 days to remove the tariffs.

The Administration will appeal against the decision and the tariffs will continue to be collected until the appeals are heard.

If the ruling is upheld, tariffs collected so far will have to be repaid.

MUFG commented; “The Trump administration has filed a notice of appeal with the US Trade Court, where it is very likely to go not just to the Court of Appeal but likely up to the US Supreme Court.”

Yunosuke Ikeda, head of macro research at Nomura commented; “It’s almost impossible to know if the tariffs will be completely unwound by this. But in the hypothetical situation that they are, it’s natural to see dollar appreciation.”

He added; “Trump’s tariffs will lead to stagflation pressure on the U.S. economy, so reversing those tariffs would be a positive for the dollar.”

There will still be a high degree of uncertainty, especially as there will be an impact on tax revenue which will feed through into underlying market concerns over the budget deficit.

It is highly unlikely that the Administration will drop its trade campaign and it will explore all avenues to negate any legal impact.

MUFG added; “Our best sense right now for Asia FX markets is that the knee jerk reaction seen today in Asian currencies weakening and Dollar strengthening may not last. The crucial reasons are that the tariffs on Asia are likely to stay amidst the legal battle, coupled with the legal uncertainty also potentially crimping US growth and investment plans further.”

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially shot higher against the Japanese yen and then has collapsed. There has been a lot of selling above 146 yen. The question is, can we turn things around? I still think we’re in the midst of trying to reach the bottom. But right now, it’s just so messy that it’s really difficult to get aggressive to the upside. Nonetheless, I do think that there is an opportunity on pullbacks to buy the US dollar due to interest rate differential, which is going to remain sky high, especially as the Japanese are having trouble finding buyers for their bonds again.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is slightly positive, but it’s still just messy sideways trading, really, when you look at this. The 200 day EMA is relatively flat and offers a little bit of support, but the 0.64 level is even more important. Underneath there you have the 0.635 zero level, which should offer support. Clearing both of those to the downside probably opens a trap door trade against the Aussie where we just fall off of a cliff. On the other hand, if we can turn around a break above the 0.65 level, that allows the Australian dollar to go much higher. We did peak above there on Monday, but Monday, of course, was Memorial Day, meaning that there was a serious lack of liquidity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.