While market bets on a BoJ rate hike are boosting demand for the yen, key US data will fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts.

US Personal Income and Outlays Report Takes Center Stage

Later on Friday, the highly anticipated Personal Income and Outlays report will be under the spotlight. Economists expect the Core PCE Price Index to rise by 2.9% year-on-year and by 0.2% MoM in September, matching August’s trends.

Despite the delayed report reflecting September numbers, any shift from August levels would likely influence bets on December and March Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed rate path would pull 10-year Treasury yields sharply lower, narrowing US-Japan rate differentials further.

Rising 10-year JGB and falling 10-year Treasury yields further support the short- to medium-term USD/JPY outlook, with 140 a medium-term price target.

Other stats include preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers. The inflation components will require attention, given the market focus on the Fed’s dual mandate. Economists forecast Michigan Inflation Expectations to drop from 4.5% in November to 4.4% in December.

While key US data will influence US dollar demand, there are no FOMC member speeches to overshadow the reports. Fed Blackout Period is in effect until December 11, limiting Fed-driven volatility.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December cut stood at 87.0% on December 4, down from 90.0% on December 3. Meanwhile, the chances of a March rate cut slipped from 53.4% to 48.8%. However, traders should closely monitor the December and March trends. The absence of US inflation data left softer labor market data to drive expectations. Incoming inflation data will recalibrate market expectations, with sticky inflation likely to curb dovish calls.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY on a Downward Trajectory

Looking at the daily chart, USD/JPY traded above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming a bullish bias. However, fundamentals have begun to shift from the technical trend, supporting a bearish outlook.

A break below the 155 support level would bring the 50-day EMA into play. If breached, the 153 support level would be the next key support. Crucially, a drop below the 50-day EMA would signal a bearish trend reversal, suggesting a near-term fall toward 150.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Extends Gains Ahead of Key US Sentiment Data

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) touched a fresh one-month high on Thursday, supported by a mildly risk-on market tone and rising expectations of imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3363 – its strongest level since late October.

The Pound (GBP) spent Thursday trading within a narrow range, with the absence of new UK data leaving Sterling without a strong directional catalyst.

Lingering reactions to the UK’s autumn budget continued to influence sentiment. Reports suggesting that uncertainty ahead of the fiscal statement had cooled investment, dampened business confidence, and contributed to a slowdown in construction activity added to the mixed response to Labour’s late-November plans.

Even so, the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound managed to hold onto its recent momentum against the US Dollar (USD), briefly pushing to a new one-month high as broader market appetite shifted toward risk.

The US Dollar remained under pressure on Thursday, with upbeat market sentiment limiting demand for the safe-haven currency.

Speculation that the Federal Reserve may accelerate monetary easing over the coming months weighed heavily on USD sentiment. With a rate cut widely expected at next week’s meeting, and recent signs of a cooling US labour market reinforcing expectations of further easing, investors saw little reason to move back into the ‘Greenback’.

Adding to the downward pressure were reports that Kevin Hassett, a close ally of President Donald Trump, is likely to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026, a move that markets view as supportive of a more dovish policy path.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: US Dollar Poised for Additional Weakness?

Looking ahead, Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index will be the key focus for USD traders. Sentiment is expected to show a slight improvement in December, which may offer the Dollar some modest support — though confidence remains historically fragile.

Even so, firm expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, and may increase the pace of easing through 2026, are likely to keep the ‘Greenback’ under pressure in the short term.

For the Pound, the absence of major UK economic releases going into the weekend means GBP will continue to take its cues from broader market sentiment. A risk-on mood could help Sterling extend gains against the Dollar, while any deterioration in confidence may pull the currency lower.

Continued scrutiny of the autumn budget fallout — including concerns about leaks and mixed briefings surrounding the announcement — could also exert a subtle influence on GBP trading.

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Created on December 04, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bullish bias.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1620 – 1.1550 – 1.1480.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1720 – 1.1800 – 1.1880

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1590 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop loss at 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop loss at 1.1890

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Amid renewed positive momentum, the Euro has maintained a strong performance this week, thanks to supportive yield differentials. Across reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose to the 1.1675 resistance yesterday, Wednesday, supported by favorable developments in bond markets. In recent days, bond yields (the interest rate paid on government debt) have risen at a faster pace in the Eurozone than in the United States, which is supportive of Euro trading.

Technically, the EUR/USD’s test of the 1.1675 level grants US Dollar buyers their strongest exchange rate since November 14. After hitting its low of 1.1491 on November 21, the pair has closed higher for seven consecutive days. This rally moves beyond the narrow descending wedge pattern that was evident on the charts since mid-September, when the EUR/USD fell from its 2025 peak of 1.19. We also note a break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1605, which aligns with the emerging positive momentum and suggests that the multi-week lows have been reached, making a test of the 1.19 level in early 2026 possible.

Bond Yields and Euro Momentum

Recenlty, we observed a rise in Eurozone bond yields mid-week following a better-than-expected inflation reading, indicating that financial markets are betting on the European Central Bank (ECB) keeping interest rates at their current levels for an extended period. According to economists, if Eurozone inflation does not fall below the ECB’s target in the coming months, as the markets anticipate, then a 10-year swap rate exceeding 3% is not an unrealistic scenario.

As is well known, the 10-year swap rate is a key money market benchmark, reflecting investors’ and traders’ expectations for future interest rates. It also underpins a wide range of products, such as mortgages and corporate lending. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair’s gains reflect lowering expectations for US interest rates, as the past seven trading days have been characterized by a cautious repricing of expectations for a US rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

In this regard, the US interest rate market has almost fully priced in a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month. This will naturally have a negative impact on the overall performance of the US dollar. Therefore, we expect the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in cutting interest rates going forward, compared to the European Central Bank’s support for our expectation that the EUR/USD pair will break through the psychological resistance level of 1.2000 in 2026.

Trading Advice:

We still recommend buying EUR/USD from the support area of ​​1.15 and below, but without risk, with a target of 1.18, the most important level for moving towards the psychological resistance of 1.20.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound has gone back and forth there in the course of the trading session on Thursday so far, with a 1.3350 level offering a barrier.

We can continue to go higher; that obviously would be a very bullish sign, and it is worth noting that the Wednesday candlestick was extraordinarily bullish, but I find it interesting that on Thursday, we’re just standing still. This tells me that maybe there isn’t as much conviction as Wednesday seemed to provide, but again, we’ll have to wait and see. I think a lot of this comes down to next week’s interest rate decision, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we just drift sideways.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The euro initially tried to rally against the British pound but continues to suffer at the hands of selling pressure. That being said, we are sitting right at a support level that was previously resistance, and we are hanging around the 50-day EMA as well, all things being equal. This is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked of it. The 0.89 level is a massive resistance barrier, but it is also a target based on the previous consolidation.

So, I think we get more chop. I still, at least so far, favor the upside, but we’ll have to wait and see. If we break it down to the 0.87 level, then for me, I think it’s a longer-term short. We’ll just have to wait and see. Pay attention to how the Euro and the British pound are behaving against the US dollar. It’ll tell you which one wins here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Created on December 04, 2025

• USD/JPY slips amid ongoing volatility, but key levels between ¥155 and ¥158 remain central to near-term direction.
• Broader strength still favors the dollar, with FOMC guidance likely to determine the next significant move.

The US dollar has fallen a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy trading. The 155 yen level is an area that has previously been supported over the last couple of days, and therefore, if we bounce from here, it would not be a huge surprise.

If the market were to break down below the 155 yen level, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 153 yen level, with the 50-day EMA sitting right around the same area. The market turning around and breaking above the 156 yen level opens up the possibility of a move to the 158 yen level. The 158 yen level is an area that has seen resistance previously. And I think if we can break above there, it could open up the possibility of a move to the 160 yen level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, but really with the interest rate differential coming into play.

US Dollar Isn’t Dead Yet

I think you still see US dollar strength overall. A lot of this is going to come down to the FOMC press conference, not the interest rate decision next Wednesday. And if it sounds remotely hesitant to cut rates for the next multiple meetings, then I suspect that’s where we start to bounce pretty significantly. Regardless, you get paid to hold this pair. I’ve been long for this market in various sizes for several months now, and nothing’s really changed at this point.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on December 04, 2025

• EUR/USD pushes higher but faces notable resistance, with broader direction likely hinging on next week’s FOMC decision.
• Diverging economic trajectories between the U.S. and Europe continue to favor dollar strength on larger pullbacks.

The euro has seen another push higher during the trading session on Wednesday, but it does look like a market that I think is running into a little bit of a resistance barrier. In the short term, I suspect that the euro will probably continue to at least attempt to recover.

But in the longer term, a lot of this is going to come down to the fact that the United States will expand and grow next year, while Europe probably won’t or at least will in a much smaller manner than the American economy.

FOMC as the Next Major Driver

So with that being said, I’m looking at little rallies like this as opportunities to short, but I also recognize that right now we’re waiting on the FOMC.interest rate decision next Wednesday, and probably more importantly, the press conference afterwards. So that is going to be the next major driver, would be my guess, because if Jerome Powell suddenly sounds extraordinarily dovish, that will send this pair to the moon. But some of the leading indicators are starting to suggest that maybe massive rate cuts just aren’t going to be coming. And if that’s the case, then you’ve got a situation where the US dollar will eventually strengthen.

If we break down below the 1.14 level, this is a market that I think could really take off to the downside, reaching the 1.11 level. Keep in mind that the Euro against the US dollar is typically a very choppy and slow place to be. So even getting to 1.11 might take a couple of weeks. This is a market right now that’s just kind of searching for an external force to move it.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Platinum price is affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, especially by stochastic reach below 80 level, to force it to provide new sideways trading, to keep its stability near$1660.00.

Reminding you that holding above $1605.00 level, will make it form extra support to increase the chances of gathering the required bullish momentum to reach $1695.00, and surpassing this obstacle will extend the trading towards the positive stations that begin at $1745.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1620.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the positive factors in the last period, especially unionism between the main indicators besides the stability of the EURJPY pair’s price within the bullish channel’s levels, the continuation of forming extra barrier at 181.70 level reinforces the dominance of the sideways bias in the current trading.

Therefore, we will keep waiting for breaching the barrier and providing positive close above it to confirm its readiness to achieve new gains by its rally towards 182.35 initially, reaching the next main target near 183.05.

The expected trading range for today is between 180.65 and 182.35

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Rises on PMI Boost and Fed Shift

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) climbed on Wednesday as markets leaned further into expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve.

At the time of writing, the pair traded near $1.3281, roughly 0.5% higher than Wednesday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) retreated on Wednesday as speculation intensified that Kevin Hassett will be nominated to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Investors have steadily increased their bets on a December Fed rate cut, with current pricing pointing to an 87% probability of a 25bps move.

But attention is shifting beyond the near-term decision. Markets increasingly believe the Fed could adopt a more aggressive easing stance throughout 2026, particularly if Hassett — seen as sympathetic to President Trump’s preference for looser monetary policy — becomes Chair.

Reports that interviews with other shortlisted candidates have been halted abruptly added weight to expectations of Hassett’s appointment, placing further downward pressure on the US Dollar as traders brace for a potentially faster-cutting Fed.

The Pound (GBP) found support on Wednesday after the UK’s latest services PMI was revised higher.

The November index was lifted from 50.5 to 51.3. While still below October’s 52.3, the stronger print eased concerns about the sector’s loss of momentum.

The survey also signalled a cooling in price pressures — a positive sign for the Bank of England (BoE). However, evidence of falling employment further cemented expectations that the BoE remains on course to lower interest rates again before the year’s end.

GBP/USD Forecast: Strong US Inflation to Give USD Fresh Support?

Looking ahead, the key event for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate will be Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure: the core PCE price index.

If September’s reading holds at 2.9% or comes in hotter, it may temper recent dovish speculation and offer the US Dollar some relief.

Conversely, a cooler print would likely strengthen expectations of faster rate cuts in 2026 and put renewed pressure on the Dollar.

With no major UK data due, Sterling is likely to drift through the second half of the week, taking its cue from US economic releases and broader market sentiment.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts