Created on December 01, 2025

• The British pound traded quietly amid thin post-Thanksgiving conditions, with major technical levels clustering near 1.32.
• A decisive break on either side of this inflection zone could determine the broader trend in the weeks ahead.

The British pound has been somewhat noisy during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of technical factors come into the picture. Friday, of course, was a fairly quiet trading session due to the fact that although the Thanksgiving holiday was over, it’s generally accepted that most Americans don’t go back to work until Monday. So, because of this, you have an entire part of the world that isn’t even involved in the markets.

That being said, it’s worth noting that the technical confluence is worth paying close attention to because it could matter. The 200-day EMA, the 50-day EMA, and the 1.32 level all come into play in this general vicinity. And if we break down below the 1.32 level, then I think we’ve got a situation where the market just simply rejected breaking above these crucial moving averages and broke above the idea of changing trends.

Critical Inflection Levels

If we drop from here, we could go to the 1.30 level given enough time. On the other hand, if we turn around and break above the 1.33 level, then we could go looking to the 1.35 level. But in that environment, I would expect not only the British pound to do fairly well against the US dollar, but multiple other currencies well, including the euro and the Canadian dollar.

In general, the British pound has made a massive topping pattern for most of the year. And now we are at a major point of inflection that will probably determine where we go for the next several weeks. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations continue to be very noisy. And it’s worth noting that the market keeps fluctuating between an almost guaranteed rate cut to a lot of questions asked about that.

And it has a major influence on the US dollar.

Keep in mind that the Bank of England almost cut interest rates last time, and the vote count only reinforced the idea that perhaps the rate cuts are coming fairly soon. Now the question is how many times will they cut? I think this is a market that probably continues to be very noisy as both central banks are in play at the moment.

Ready to trade our daily Forex GBP/USD analysis? We’ve made this UK forex brokers list for you to check out.

Created on December 01, 2025

• USD/JPY pulled back slightly in thin post-Thanksgiving trading, but broader fundamentals still favor the upside.
• With Japan unable to tighten meaningfully and U.S. policy still supportive, the pair remains a buy-the-dip market above key support zones.

The US dollar initially rallied on Friday against the Japanese yen only to turn around and show signs of hesitation. That’s not really anything that I care about because Friday was a very thin trading session with the Americans basically stepping away from the markets as they tend to take four-day holidays for Thanksgiving. Nonetheless,

We have seen a short-term pullback as of late, and I think that is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind, recognizing that maybe the market got a little bit ahead of itself. And of course, there’s the usual machine-driven nonsense and panic about a Federal Reserve official saying one thing and then another one saying a different thing. And now we’re back to the Federal Reserve, which is going to cut rates to oblivion again.

Fundamental Divergence and Pullback Opportunities

These wild swings have become the norm in sentiment because it’s not human sentiment; it’s quantified mathematical sentiment. With that being the case, it’s a different world, but at the end of the day, you do get paid to hang on to this trade. And I still am bullish because the Federal Reserve may cut rates once or even twice, but the Bank of Japan is not going to get ultra-tight with its monetary policy anymore. Math and reality just don’t allow them to do this. With that being the case, I look at significant pullbacks as wonderful buying opportunities in a market that I have been long of for months. I have no interest in shorting this market, and every time it dips and bounces, I add to an already sizable position at this point. If we can break above the 158 yen level, then I think we start to think about 160 yen and so on.

Right now, for me at least, the floor in the market is at the 153 yen level with the 50-day EMA sitting there. If we were to break down below there, then maybe I could collect all of my profit and then rethink the situation. But until then, this is a buy on the dip scenario.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above the barrier at 206.95 level, forcing it to form corrective waves to settle near 205.75 as appears in above image.

Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level, to increase the intraday negative pressures on the trading, to increase the chances of testing extra support at 205.20, where breaking it will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching 204.60 and 204.10, while renewing the bullish attempts require providing new positive close above 206.90, to ease the mission of recording the main positive targets that extend to 207.70 and 208.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 205.20 and 206.60

Trend forecast: Bearish 

The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above the barrier at 206.95 level, forcing it to form corrective waves to settle near 205.75 as appears in above image.

Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level, to increase the intraday negative pressures on the trading, to increase the chances of testing extra support at 205.20, where breaking it will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching 204.60 and 204.10, while renewing the bullish attempts require providing new positive close above 206.90, to ease the mission of recording the main positive targets that extend to 207.70 and 208.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 205.20 and 206.60

Trend forecast: Bearish 

Will BoJ Governor Ueda Greenlight a Hike?

Later this morning, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda could greenlight a December hike, potentially kick-starting a USD/JPY bearish-trend reversal.

USD/JPY has soared 5.63% in the fourth quarter, fueled by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s support for ultra-loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus policies. Previously fading bets on a December rate cut contributed to the fourth quarter rally.

However, growing concerns about the weaker yen pushing import prices higher and eroding Japanese households’ purchasing power have added to the chances of a BoJ hike.

I expect USD/JPY to drop sharply if Governor Ueda focuses on elevated import prices while talking optimistically about wage growth. Markets would likely view such comments as a green light for a rate hike at the December meeting.

Economists continue to flag the weaker yen as a BoJ focal point, aligning with my bearish stance on USD/JPY.

East Asia Econ commented on October’s national inflation figures, stating:

“Headline SPPI inflation was stable in October, but weak for high labor-intensive sectors, while part-time wages were strong, likely on the back of the minimum wage hike. That’s an unclear picture. But right now, with JPY so weak, the BoJ will focus more on headline CPI than these messy details.”

US PMI Data and Fed Speakers to Impact US Dollar Demand

While BoJ Governor Ueda will take center stage in the Asian session, US data and Fed speakers are in focus later on Monday.

Economists forecast the ISM Manufacturing PMI to fall from 48.7 in October to 48.6 in November. A more marked contraction across the manufacturing sector and softer prices would raise expectations of a December Fed rate cut.

November’s data will come ahead of a Fed Chair Powell speech after the market close on Monday, December 1.

Powell’s support for a December rate cut, coupled with a hawkish BoJ Governor, would likely send USD/JPY toward 150, setting up a sharper fall to 140 later in the month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December cut jumped from 39.1% on November 20 to 86.4% on November 28. Meanwhile, November’s Reuters poll showed a majority of economists predicting a December BoJ rate hike. All panelists expecting a policy adjustment by March 2026.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Faces Three-Day Losing Streak

Looking at the daily chart, USD/JPY remained above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming a bullish bias. However, fundamentals have started to shift from the technical trend, supporting a bearish outlook.

A break below the 155 support level would pave the way to the 50-day EMA and the 153 support level. If breached, the 200-day EMA and 150 would be the next key support levels. Crucially, a break below the 50-day EMA would indicate a bearish trend reversal, signaling a drop toward 140.

Created on November 28, 2025

• The British pound extended its broader bullish tone against the yen, with recent sessions confirming strong upward momentum.
• Support and resistance levels remain well-defined, while interest rate differentials and risk appetite continue to underpin longer-term upside bias.

The British pound initially fell against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Thursday but at this point it looks as if it is a market that continues to see a lot of upward trajectory and of course we need to keep in mind that the Wednesday session was a big huge victory for the British pound and it looks like we tried to roll that back but then turned around to show a confirmation of the strength.

If we can break above the high of both Wednesday and Thursday, then we have the British pound reaching towards the 210 yen level over the longer term. If we break it down, I think the 205 yen level will end up being a significant support level, as it was previous resistance. All things being equal, you do get paid at the end of every day to hang on to this pair. So, I think the interest rate differential continues to be a major factor.

Interest Rate Dynamics and Long-Term Bias

Especially as the Bank of Japan has almost no real serious possibility of tightening monetary policy of any significant note, while the British pound, despite the fact that the Bank of England came very close to cutting rates, still has a larger interest rate behind it. And therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where over the longer term, we should continue to just levitate here. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that there is a risk appetite factor here, and traders typically will buy this pair when they feel more risk on than risk-averse, and of course vice versa. I like buying dips here. I think we go higher.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.