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21 05, 2025

Euro turns bullish after breaking above technical level

By |2025-05-21T14:54:05+03:00May 21, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • EUR/USD trades above 1.1300 in the European session on Wednesday.
  • The broad-based USD weakness helps the pair push higher.
  • The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.

EUR/USD preserves its bullish momentum early Wednesday and trades at a fresh two-week-high above 1.1300 after closing the second consecutive day in positive territory on Tuesday. The pair’s near-term technical picture highlights a buildup of bullish momentum.

Euro PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -1.20% -0.91% -0.82% -0.58% -0.55% -0.76% -1.34%
EUR 1.20% 0.27% 0.44% 0.69% 0.78% 0.51% -0.14%
GBP 0.91% -0.27% -0.15% 0.42% 0.51% 0.24% -0.41%
JPY 0.82% -0.44% 0.15% 0.25% 0.44% 0.27% -0.46%
CAD 0.58% -0.69% -0.42% -0.25% 0.04% -0.18% -0.82%
AUD 0.55% -0.78% -0.51% -0.44% -0.04% -0.27% -0.90%
NZD 0.76% -0.51% -0.24% -0.27% 0.18% 0.27% -0.64%
CHF 1.34% 0.14% 0.41% 0.46% 0.82% 0.90% 0.64%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar (USD) remained under bearish pressure on Tuesday and helped EUR/USD stretch higher. The lack of progress in US-China trade relations and the political uncertainty in the US seem to be causing the USD to lose interest.

China’s Commerce Ministry said the United States’ measures on China’s advanced chips are “typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism,” adding that the US violates international law by abusing export controls to contain and suppress China. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) noted that US President Donald Trump’s tax bill, which are yet to be approved by House Republicans, could add roughly $3.8 trillion to the national debt. Earlier in the week, Moody’s announced that it downgraded the US’ sovereign credit rating to ‘AA1’ from ‘AAA’, citing concerns about the unsustainable deficit.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that the medium-term inflation outlook is too uncertain to say whether the ECB needs to cut key rates again in June.

Investors will pay close attention to political developments in the US and headlines surrounding geopolitics in the second half of the day. If House Republicans pass Trump’s bill, the USD could find some demand with the immediate reaction. However, such a decision could feed into debt fears and make it difficult for the USD to gather strength sustainably. Additionally, a re-escalation of US-China trade tensions could trigger another leg lower in the USD and allow EUR/USD to extend its weekly rally.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD climbed above 1.1270, where the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend and the 50-period SMA converge. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator climbed above 60, reflecting a buildup of bullish momentum.

On the upside, interim resistance seems to have formed at 1.1340 (static level) before 1.1380 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1430 (static level). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.1270, 1.1200 (static level, round level) and 1.1170 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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21 05, 2025

The GBPJPY is without any new– Forecast today – 21-5-2025

By |2025-05-21T12:53:00+03:00May 21, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Copper price lost its negative momentum, which forces it to form a new bearish trading, delaying the negative attack by its repeated stability above the extra support at $4.5000, reinforced by the stability of the moving average 55 above it as appears in the above image.

 

We expect the confinement of the trading between the mentioned support at $4.6600 level as barrier against activating the bullish track, therefore, we will stay aside until surpassing one of these level, which will detect the trend in the near period, note that breaching the barrier will provide chance for achieving some gains by its rally to $4.7500 reaching the resistance near $4.9100.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5500 and $4.6600.

 

Trend forecast: Neutral

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21 05, 2025

Rises toward highs since February 2022 near 1.3450

By |2025-05-21T10:52:18+03:00May 21, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • GBP/USD faces an immediate barrier at 1.3445, the highest level since February 2022.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises above 50, strengthening a bullish bias.
  • The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.3339.

The GBP/USD pair extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.3430 during Wednesday’s Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a persistent bullish bias as the pair remains within an ascending channel pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair continues to rise above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting the short-term price momentum is stronger. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising above 50, reinforcing a bullish bias.

The GBP/USD pair encounters immediate resistance at 1.3445, reached on April 28, and the highest level since February 2022. A break above this level could improve the market sentiment and support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 1.3890.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may target the primary support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3339, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 1.3270. A successful break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3147.

Further depreciation would lead the medium-term price momentum to weaken and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around its monthly low at 1.2708, recorded on April 7. Further support appears at the two-month low of 1.2577, recorded on March 3.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.43% -0.30% -0.56% -0.19% -0.43% -0.41% -0.75%
EUR 0.43% 0.13% -0.16% 0.22% 0.02% 0.02% -0.32%
GBP 0.30% -0.13% -0.29% 0.11% -0.10% -0.10% -0.47%
JPY 0.56% 0.16% 0.29% 0.36% 0.13% 0.14% -0.20%
CAD 0.19% -0.22% -0.11% -0.36% -0.24% -0.20% -0.57%
AUD 0.43% -0.02% 0.10% -0.13% 0.24% 0.01% -0.34%
NZD 0.41% -0.02% 0.10% -0.14% 0.20% -0.01% -0.36%
CHF 0.75% 0.32% 0.47% 0.20% 0.57% 0.34% 0.36%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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21 05, 2025

Euro to Dollar Forecast: “We Favour EUR/USD Exploring the Upside”

By |2025-05-21T02:46:57+03:00May 21, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

May 20, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate peaked just below 1.1280 on Tuesday and retreated to 1.1230 as the dollar managed to secure a limited recovery.

ING commented; “We slightly favour EUR/USD exploring the upside in quiet markets. A move through the 1.1265/1300 area can open up 1.1380.”

So Far, EUR/USD has not been able to break this area.

Scotiabank expects further net range trading; Near-term support is expected at 1.1150 with resistance expected above 1.1350.”

The immediate focus is likely to be on US fiscal policy with President Trump in Washington and attempting to secure Republican support in Congress for the Budget Bill.

Markets remain wary over the risk of a further widening of the US budget deficit, especially with longer-term debt fears.

MUFG commented; “Since the start of 2022, foreign private investor demand for UST bonds has been unprecedented. But if that demand was to wane and central bank selling was to continue we would certainly expect the euro-zone to take on a greater role as an alternative destination.”




Scotiabank remains wary over dollar fundamentals; “Trade uncertainty remains high and while last week’s US sovereign credit downgrade can hardly have come as a surprise to market, investors cannot be complacent amid signs that the US economic momentum may be slowing amid the fallout from President Trump’s tariff policy.”

It added; “If anything, the fall back from last week’s peak suggests the rebound is poised to fade and reverse to the downside.”

The dollar is still struggling to gain any defensive support.

Peter Vassallo, FX portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, commented; “That’s really what gave people a jolt and say, well, if the dollar is no longer acting as a safe-haven currency, if it’s not diversifying us any longer, should we really be holding this much of it?'”

The Euro-Zone recorded a seasonally-adjusted current account surplus of EUR51bn for March from EUR41bn the previous month and EUR30bn last year.

In the 12 months to March the surplus widened to EUR438bn and 2.9% of GDP from EUR312bn and 2.1% the previous year.

The substantial Euro-area current account surplus in in sharp contrast to the US deficits, increasing the potential for defensive capital flows into the Euro area rather than the dollar.




MUFG commented; “while we are very sceptical of the view of the dollar losing its reserve status, that does not preclude the potential for dollar holdings to gradually decline further and we see EUR as best placed to take on a greater reserve currency status role.”

MUFG added; “An unusually wide gap has opened up between short-term yield spreads and the USD. It could be an indication that market participants have priced in a higher policy risk premium into USD and/or a larger than normal position adjustment has taken place.”

Commerzbank Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann is still worried over overt or more indirect threats to Fed independence; “The Fed has now announced that it will cut 10% of its staff in anticipatory obedience. Does that reassure me? On the contrary! The Fed has shown itself to be responsive to political pressure.”

He added; “In the worst-case scenario, we could end up with a Fed that has shrunk so much that it is de facto incapable of acting. Very much like USAID. This is another way in which central bank independence can be abolished.”

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20 05, 2025

Pound Sterling clings to bullish stance

By |2025-05-20T20:43:08+03:00May 20, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • GBP/USD holds above 1.3350 in the European session on Tuesday.
  • The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.
  • Several Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches later in the day.

GBP/USD clings to small daily gains above 1.3350 early Tuesday after posting strong gains on Monday. The pair’s technical outlook suggests that buyers could look to retain control in the near term.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.60% -0.64% -0.51% -0.27% -0.19% -0.55% -0.44%
EUR 0.60% -0.06% 0.13% 0.40% 0.55% 0.11% 0.17%
GBP 0.64% 0.06% -0.10% 0.46% 0.60% 0.17% 0.23%
JPY 0.51% -0.13% 0.10% 0.25% 0.49% 0.16% 0.13%
CAD 0.27% -0.40% -0.46% -0.25% 0.09% -0.29% -0.23%
AUD 0.19% -0.55% -0.60% -0.49% -0.09% -0.43% -0.36%
NZD 0.55% -0.11% -0.17% -0.16% 0.29% 0.43% 0.06%
CHF 0.44% -0.17% -0.23% -0.13% 0.23% 0.36% -0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure to start the week and fuelled GBP/USD’s rally on Monday, as markets reacted to Moody’s decision to downgrade the United States’ sovereign credit rating, citing an unsustainable deficit.

Early Tuesday, the cautious market stance caps GBP/USD’s upside. Additionally, the USD holds its ground, supported by the latest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic repeated that he sees the Fed cutting the policy rate once this year. Additionally, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that they need to wait for more information before taking another policy step.

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill argued early Tuesday that the quarterly pace of rate reductions would be “too rapid,” adding that he is concerned about indicators pointing to inflation pressure. These comments seem to be helping Pound Sterling stay resilient against its peers.

The economic calendar will not offer any high-tier macroeconomic data releases on Tuesday that could drive the USD’s valuation. Hence, investors will continue to scrutinize comments from central bank officials.

The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a more than 70% probability that the Fed will cut the policy rate at least twice in 2025. In case Fed officials push back against this market expectation, the USD could gather strength and cause GBP/USD to lose its traction.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart edges lower to below-60 but GBP/USD holds comfortably above the 20-period, 50-period, 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), suggesting that the bullish stance remains intact, while losing some momentum.

On the upside, 1.3390-1.3400 (static level, round level) aligns as immediate resistance for GBP/USD before 1.3440 (upper limit of the latest uptrend) and 1.3500 (static level, round level). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.3300 (100-period SMA), 1.3270 (50-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.3225 (200-period SMA).

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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20 05, 2025

USD Falls Against JPY (Video)

By |2025-05-20T18:42:36+03:00May 20, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The US dollar has gapped lower against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday, but we have then turned around to show signs of least stability and at this point in time I believe that the 145 yen level continues to be an area of great importance.
  • The 145 yen level had previously been resistance, but it’s also been support in the past as well.
  • So a certain amount of market memory would be found here, I would suspect. If we can turn around and rally, I would pay close attention to the 50 day EMA because if we can break above there, then we can really go looking towards the last swing high near the 148.40 yen level.

I do think that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar. And I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see traders buying the dollar as a result. The Japanese yen, of course, is a currency that has almost no yield to it. And the Bank of Japan can do almost nothing to tighten monetary policy, at least not enough to really change the overall dynamic.

So, with that being the case, I do prefer buying this pair not shorting it. But this is a market that I think will continue to be noisy because there are so many questions about risk appetite. Yes, I’ve heard the stories of how the debt downgrade in the United States is going to destroy the US dollar and the US economy. But this has already happened twice. And this is a thing that is just simply a matter of a company catching up with the other two. So there really isn’t much going on here. If there’s any effect and it looks like there was it’s probably a one or two day event tops. So, I still favor the upside and I’ll still be a buyer.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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20 05, 2025

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Fight

By |2025-05-20T16:41:09+03:00May 20, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has gone back and forth during the trading session in early trading on Tuesday, as it looks like the 1.13 level will continue to be very resistant as the US dollar had been oversold and now we are seeing higher interest rates in America and that of course makes the US dollar a bit more attractive. With that being said, I think you have a situation where traders continue to face short-term rallies and if we do, in fact, break down from here, I’d be looking at the 1.11 level initially, followed by the 1.0950 level as a potential target. On a break above 1.15, then the euro will go much higher, but right now it doesn’t look like we have that kind of energy.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has been all over the place against the Japanese yen as we continue to see a lot of volatility near the 145 yen level. Ultimately, I think this is a market that will eventually have to make a bigger decision, but as things stand right now, it is a market that, quite frankly, is going to remain very volatile due to the fact that the Japanese yen, of course, is considered to be a safety currency. And the US dollar, of course, has a lot of noise around it, as far as the trade tariffs and potential geopolitical issues are concerned. With that being said, though, I do prefer the upside and if we can break above the 50 day EMA, I would get long.

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20 05, 2025

The GBPJPY faces a difficulty to rise– Forecast today – 20-5-2025

By |2025-05-20T14:38:55+03:00May 20, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Platinum price neediness to the negative momentum led to form some of the bullish waves by its stability above $983.00, approaching from the resistance at $1005.00, note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will confirm delaying the negative attack, to increase the chances of the trading rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level, which forms the dividing line between confirming the main trend in the upcoming trading.

 

Therefore, we expect the continuation of the price’s fluctuation within tight range, to keep waiting for its decline below $983.00, which allows it activate the negative attack and reach towards the negative stations near $966.00 and $950.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $983.00 and $1010.00

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

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20 05, 2025

The EURJPY awaits to surpass the barrier– Forecast today – 20-5-2025

By |2025-05-20T12:38:09+03:00May 20, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Platinum price neediness to the negative momentum led to form some of the bullish waves by its stability above $983.00, approaching from the resistance at $1005.00, note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will confirm delaying the negative attack, to increase the chances of the trading rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level, which forms the dividing line between confirming the main trend in the upcoming trading.

 

Therefore, we expect the continuation of the price’s fluctuation within tight range, to keep waiting for its decline below $983.00, which allows it activate the negative attack and reach towards the negative stations near $966.00 and $950.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $983.00 and $1010.00

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

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  • Exclusive and breaking news
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20 05, 2025

GBP/USD Forecast: Bullish Flag Breakout in Progress?

By |2025-05-20T10:36:36+03:00May 20, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • Britain and the European Union struck “Brexit Reset” pact in an attempt to remove trade bottlenecks and inject fresh momentum into both economies.
  • Traders appear to approve the deal, with both the euro and the pound near the top of the FX relative strength tables and Germany’s DAX rallying to record highs to start the week.
  • GBP/USD is on the verge of breaking out from the well-defined bullish flag pattern.

Yesterday, Britain and the European Union struck “Brexit Reset” pact in an attempt to remove trade bottlenecks and inject fresh momentum into both economies. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed the deal at London’s Lancaster House, framing it as a pragmatic move to boost growth and stabilize markets amid global uncertainty.

Below, we summarize the most relevant aspects of the agreement for traders:

Trade Flows and Export Recovery

By scrapping many routine border checks on animal and plant products, the agreement aims to reverse the roughly 21% drop in UK exports to the EU since 2020. Reduced red tape for British food and drink may cut costs, shorten delivery times, and free up capital that had been tied up in compliance. London projects up to £9 billion in annual gains from faster customs clearance and aligned standards in food, emissions trading, and energy.

Fisheries and Market Sentiment

The politically charged extension of EU fishing access until mid-2038 smooths a potential flashpoint in UK–EU relations. While fishing contributes just 0.4% of GDP, settling the dispute removes a hurdle that might have unsettled markets already jittery about strained post-Brexit ties.

Security Fund as Defense Investment

In a bid to deepen financial cooperation, UK firms will now compete for loans from the EU’s new €150 billion “Security Action for Europe” defense fund. This access to cheap, long-term financing is designed to shore up defense procurement pipelines, support jobs in the aerospace and armaments sectors, and send a strong signal to investors about renewed transatlantic solidarity…at a time that the US, a traditional military powerhouse, appears to be pulling back from its military involvement in the continent.

Capital Markets and Financial Services

Although the deal stops short of rejoining the single market or customs union, it establishes “dynamic alignment” in several regulatory areas. Crucially, financial services firms can expect greater predictability when issuing permits or clearing transactions, potentially easing London’s post-Brexit bid to retain its role as Europe’s premier finance hub.

Mobility, Consumer Confidence and Travel

Reinstating access to EU e-gates for UK passport holders and launching a time-limited “youth experience” work scheme should bolster consumer spending on travel and education. Those measures, while modest, may further lift business confidence and household outlays in border regions.

In summary, the reset deal aims to shore up near-term GDP growth, stabilize investor sentiment, and lay the groundwork for deeper economic integration between the UK and EU without reopening the broader political debates of Brexit. Traders appear to be giving their approval to the deal, with both the and the pound near the top of the FX relative strength tables and Germany’s rallying to record highs to start the week.

British Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX

Focusing on cable, is on the verge of breaking out from the well-defined bullish flag pattern we highlighted on Friday. The exchange rate remains above both its upward-trending 50-day EMA and rising trendline, signaling a healthy medium-term bullish trend as long as the pair remains above 1.3100 or so. If the breakout is maintained (or ideally extended) through yesterday’s close, it would set the stage for a rally to 3+ year highs into at least the mid-1.3400s.

While not infallible, the ongoing breakout in the 14-day RSI indicator serves as a clear leading/confirmatory signal of the bullish breakout in GBP/USD itself.

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