• GBP/JPY up 0.43%, on track for weekly gain over 0.40% amid resilient buyer momentum.
• Pair nears June 17 high at 196.83; close above 197.00 could open path to 198.00.
• RSI remains bullish; downside risks emerge below 195.29 Tenkan-sen support.

The GBP/JPY recovers and rallies for the second straight day, is up 0.43%, trades at 196.59, shy of reclaiming the 197.00, poised to finish the week with gains of over 0.40%. Market mood remains sour, but it was not an excuse for buyers to lift the cross-pair to fresh three-day highs.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/JPY pair remains consolidating, ahead of breaking the June 17 high of 196.83. A breach of the latter clears the path to test 197.00. If the pair prints a daily close above the latter, buyers could target 198.00 as they launch an assault to the yearly high of 198.24.

From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms that the GBP/JPY remains bullish and that buyers are gathering momentum.

For a bearish move, sellers must drag the pair below the Tenkan-sen at 195.29. On further weakness, the GBP/JPY could dive to 194.82, where the Senkou Span A lies, followed by the Kijun-sen at 194.35.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

June 20, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound Rate Today: Short Covering Underpins GBP vs EUR, USD

The British Pound (GBP) dipped against the Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD) in immediate response to the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision, but found solid support on dips with an element of short covering after the currency failed to extend losses.

Global markets were subdued amid a US market holiday, but conditions were still very tense given speculation over a US military strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate dipped to 1.1685 before a recovery to 1.1710 and marginal gains on the day

According to ING; “We retain a short-term target in EUR/GBP at 0.860. (1.1630 for GBP/EUR). It added; “Geopolitical risks and a potential return of trade-induced market volatility in July argue that the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside for the pair despite the recent rally.”

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate hit lows near 1.3400 before a rebound to near 1.3450.

Scotiabank commented; “The multi-month trend is intact, for now, as GBPUSD tests the important medium-term 50 day MA (1.3390) support level. A break from here would call for a more decisive call in the trend shift. The latest pair of doji candles signals uncertainty, and we expect the near-term range to be defined by support below 1.3380 and resistance above 1.3480.”

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held interest rates at 4.25%, in line with strong consensus forecasts with the chances of a cut seen at below 5%.

There was no updated Monetary Policy Report at this meeting and, therefore, no fresh macroeconomic forecasts.

There was a 6-3 vote split for the decision with Dhingra, Taylor and Ramsden dissenting and calling for a further 25 basis-point cut to 4.00% at this meeting.

According to Handelsbanken UK economist Daniel Mahoney; “The central bank’s decision was slightly more dovish than expected.”

He added; “I think most people in the markets thought there would be a 7-2 so I think that’s interesting, but I think those three members are obviously focusing on some of those domestic indicators.”

The key theme was uncertainty, especially given important trade and Middle East tensions.

The bank maintained its overall guidance; “Given the outlook, and continued disinflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remained appropriate.”

It added; “The Committee would continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evidence might reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.”

It noted that wages growth has slowed and expects this process will continue, but it was still not willing to sound the “all clear” on wages or inflation.

In this context, it stated that further progress is needed to reach the 2% target.

The majority was confident that disinflation was continuing but commented that; “there was not a strong case for a further easing of monetary policy at this meeting.”

Governor Bailey commented; “The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation.”

There will also be concerns over any further increase in energy prices.

ING commented; “The hawks, meanwhile, will also have a beady eye on oil prices. Though the rise so far won’t make much difference to the inflation outlook we know some at the Bank are wary of a repeat of 2022, where a rise in energy prices turned into a much wider and more persistent services-driven inflation episode.

PwC chief economist Barret Kupelian also noted geopolitical uncertainty and the threat of a surge in oil prices.

He added; “If that rally embeds itself into wage setting or in household bills, the upside risk to inflation could well push any rate cut further down the calendar. In these murky waters, patience is the Bank’s best compass, steering a steady course between hawkish overreach and premature relief.”

Handelsbanken’s Mahoney considered that comments that the bank is not on a pre-set path was a “critical point.”

In this context, a major spike in oil prices could force the bank to consider a rate hike.

According to the minority, policy was too restrictive at the current time and a further cut was needed at this time to avoid inflation falling too far below 2%.

Markets are now pricing in an 80% chance that rates will be lowered to 4.00% at the August meeting.

Traders also expect that there will be at least one further cut before the end of 2025.

ING added; “our base case is that the BoE cuts rates in August and November, and twice more in 2026.”

Simon Dangoor, head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs added; “We continue to expect the bank to resume rate cuts in August, followed by a shift to consecutive reductions starting in November, ultimately bringing the bank rate down to 3.25%.”

Berenberg is not expecting further cuts this year due to upward pressure on costs; “As companies pass those costs on, inflation is likely to prove too stubborn for the Bank to cut again this year.”

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• GBP/USD clings to modest gains near 1.3500 in the European session on Friday.
• The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected.
• Easing concerns over the US’ involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict helps the market mood improve.

GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day at around 1.3500 after closing in positive territory on Thursday. The pair, however, could have a difficult time gathering bullish momentum in the near term.

The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it maintained the bank rate at 4.25%, as expected. Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), however, voted in favor of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, citing material further loosening in the labour market, subdued consumer demand and pay deals near sustainable rates. In the policy statement, the BoE reiterated that a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate.

Although GBP/USD edged lower with the immediate reaction, the renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness helped the pair gain traction in the second half of the day.

Improving market mood on news of US President Donald Trump giving Iran another chance to make a deal to end its nuclear program and delaying his final decision on launching strikes for up to two weeks caused the USD to lose interest.

Early Friday, the data published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics showed that Retail Sales declined by 2.7% on a monthly basis in May. This reading came in worse than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.5% but failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.

In the absence of high-impact data releases, market participants are likely to remain focused on geopolitics. A bullish opening in Wall Street could hurt the USD and help GBP/USD edge higher heading into the weekend. Nevertheless, investors could remain reluctant to bet on a persistent Pound Sterling strength following the BoE event.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD climbed above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator recovered slightly above 50, highlighting a loss of bearish momentum.

On the upside, 1.3520 (50-period SMA, 100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as a strong resistance level before 1.3600 (static level, round level) and 1.3630 (end-point of the uptrend). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.3450-1.3440 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA), 1.3400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.3340 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

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The GBPJPY pair provided some positive signals by its stability above the extra support at 194.00 and its rally above the support of the bullish channel near 194.50, which allows it to achieve some gains by reaching 196.32.

Stochastic begin to provide positive momentum will increase the chances for forming new bullish waves, to expect targeting 196.65 level, reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level near 197.45, forming the next main target of the current trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 195.20 and 196.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair ended its rally above 166.40 level, to notice recording some extra gains by hitting 167.70 level, taking advantage of its main stability with the bullish channel’s levels besides stochastic attempt to provide extra positive momentum by its fluctuation near 80 level.

Therefore, we will keep our bullish scenario, which targets 168.20 level reaching to the resistance of the bullish channel at 169.45, to form the main target of the current period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 166.75 and 168.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

June 20, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound Rate Today: Short Covering Underpins GBP vs EUR, USD

The British Pound (GBP) dipped against the Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD) in immediate response to the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision, but found solid support on dips with an element of short covering after the currency failed to extend losses.

Global markets were subdued amid a US market holiday, but conditions were still very tense given speculation over a US military strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate dipped to 1.1685 before a recovery to 1.1710 and marginal gains on the day

According to ING; “We retain a short-term target in EUR/GBP at 0.860. (1.1630 for GBP/EUR). It added; “Geopolitical risks and a potential return of trade-induced market volatility in July argue that the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside for the pair despite the recent rally.”

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate hit lows near 1.3400 before a rebound to near 1.3450.

Scotiabank commented; “The multi-month trend is intact, for now, as GBPUSD tests the important medium-term 50 day MA (1.3390) support level. A break from here would call for a more decisive call in the trend shift. The latest pair of doji candles signals uncertainty, and we expect the near-term range to be defined by support below 1.3380 and resistance above 1.3480.”

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held interest rates at 4.25%, in line with strong consensus forecasts with the chances of a cut seen at below 5%.

There was no updated Monetary Policy Report at this meeting and, therefore, no fresh macroeconomic forecasts.

There was a 6-3 vote split for the decision with Dhingra, Taylor and Ramsden dissenting and calling for a further 25 basis-point cut to 4.00% at this meeting.

According to Handelsbanken UK economist Daniel Mahoney; “The central bank’s decision was slightly more dovish than expected.”

He added; “I think most people in the markets thought there would be a 7-2 so I think that’s interesting, but I think those three members are obviously focusing on some of those domestic indicators.”

The key theme was uncertainty, especially given important trade and Middle East tensions.

The bank maintained its overall guidance; “Given the outlook, and continued disinflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remained appropriate.”

It added; “The Committee would continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evidence might reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.”

It noted that wages growth has slowed and expects this process will continue, but it was still not willing to sound the “all clear” on wages or inflation.

In this context, it stated that further progress is needed to reach the 2% target.

The majority was confident that disinflation was continuing but commented that; “there was not a strong case for a further easing of monetary policy at this meeting.”

Governor Bailey commented; “The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation.”

There will also be concerns over any further increase in energy prices.

ING commented; “The hawks, meanwhile, will also have a beady eye on oil prices. Though the rise so far won’t make much difference to the inflation outlook we know some at the Bank are wary of a repeat of 2022, where a rise in energy prices turned into a much wider and more persistent services-driven inflation episode.

PwC chief economist Barret Kupelian also noted geopolitical uncertainty and the threat of a surge in oil prices.

He added; “If that rally embeds itself into wage setting or in household bills, the upside risk to inflation could well push any rate cut further down the calendar. In these murky waters, patience is the Bank’s best compass, steering a steady course between hawkish overreach and premature relief.”

Handelsbanken’s Mahoney considered that comments that the bank is not on a pre-set path was a “critical point.”

In this context, a major spike in oil prices could force the bank to consider a rate hike.

According to the minority, policy was too restrictive at the current time and a further cut was needed at this time to avoid inflation falling too far below 2%.

Markets are now pricing in an 80% chance that rates will be lowered to 4.00% at the August meeting.

Traders also expect that there will be at least one further cut before the end of 2025.

ING added; “our base case is that the BoE cuts rates in August and November, and twice more in 2026.”

Simon Dangoor, head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs added; “We continue to expect the bank to resume rate cuts in August, followed by a shift to consecutive reductions starting in November, ultimately bringing the bank rate down to 3.25%.”

Berenberg is not expecting further cuts this year due to upward pressure on costs; “As companies pass those costs on, inflation is likely to prove too stubborn for the Bank to cut again this year.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts Pound Euro Forecasts

• Thursday was Juneteenth in the United States, which of course is a federal holiday.
• Because of this, most American traders were not involved in the markets, and it suggests that we have a scenario where traders are going to be somewhat shrugging their shoulders based on the lack of liquidity.
• However, the candlestick from the Wednesday session was of course very important as well.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is still bullish overall, but the fact that we ended up forming a shooting star on Wednesday, breaking down below the bottom of the candlestick opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.14 level. The 1.14 level being broken to the downside of course opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.13 level, where we currently see the 50 Day EMA residing.

On the upside, the 1.16 level is a major barrier, and therefore we will have to watch that very closely. If the market were to break above there, then the Euro would really start to take off to the upside. I think at this point in time though, we are more or less in a consolidation area, and we are trying to sort out where to go next. This is a pair that will be mainly driven by the overall attitude of the US dollar, which of course is considered to be a “safety currency”, and therefore the fact that we have so much going on in the Middle East in Ukraine at the moment, as well as all of the trade war rhetoric, makes it very likely that the US dollar will continue to be a big mover over the next foreseeable trading sessions.

When you look at the area that we are in right now, the 1.13 level being the floor in the 1.16 level being the ceiling, we are fairly close to the middle. Because of this, I feel that we are essentially “killing time” waiting for some type of clarity. I also am fully cognizant of the fact that it’s probably easier for this pair to rise and fall, but whether or not there is any real conviction is a completely different question.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best European brokers to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3400 on Thursday.
• The BoE is expected to maintain its bank rate at 4.25% after June meeting.
• The risk-averse market atmosphere could make it difficult for the pair to stage a rebound.

After closing the day virtually unchanged on Wednesday, GBP/USD edged lower and touched its weakest level in about a month near 1.3380 in the Asian session on Thursday. Although the pair managed to recover above 1.3400 by the European morning, it’s struggling to attract buyers ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy announcements.

The BoE is widely expected to maintain its bank rate at 4.25% following the 25 basis points (bps) cut announced in May. Because there will not be a press conference, the vote split and the language in the policy statement could drive Pound Sterling’s valuation in the near term.

In case the vote is unanimous for a policy hold, the immediate reaction could help Pound Sterling gather strength. On the flip side, GBP/USD could continue to stretch lower if more than two policymakers vote in favor of a rate cut.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its peers on Thursday and limits GBP/USD’s upside. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious tone and the risk-averse market atmosphere support the USD.

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5% after the June meeting, as expected, and the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers still see a 50 bps reduction in the policy rate in 2025. On a hawkish revision, the document highlighted that officials now forecast only a 25 bps cut in 2026, against the 50 bps projected in March’s SEP.

In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there is unusually elevated uncertainty in the outlook and said that they expect goods inflation to rise further this summer, with tariffs working their way to the consumer. Powell also reiterated that they are well-positioned to wait before deciding on the next policy step.

Meanwhile, markets grow anxious as tensions in the Middle East remain high, with the possibility of the United States (US) directly getting involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. Bloomberg reported early Thursday that US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran in coming days. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal claimed that US President Donald Trump has approved attack plans on Iran earlier this week but wanted to wait to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD remains below the lower limit of the ascending regression and channel and stays below the 200-period Simple Moving Average after closing the previous four 4-hour candles below that level, reflecting a bearish tilt in the near term.

On the downside, 1.3400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as the immediate support level before 1.3340 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.3300 (static level, round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3440-1.3450 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 1.3520 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA).

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen in that same time frame, initially pulling back below the 145 yen level, but now it looks like we’re going to make a serious attempt at threatening the 146 yen level. This is an area where I think if we can clear somewhat cleanly, we could have a nice breakout. It would make a certain amount of sense. The Japanese are having issues with their bond market, as far as not finding enough buyers. So, the Bank of Japan’s probably going now to be somewhat loose with its monetary policy going forward.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar as it is now threatening the bottom of the overall channel that we have been following for several months now. With that being the case, the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA come into the picture as potential support as well. But really at this point, the Australian dollar just doesn’t seem to be able to pick up momentum.

It has been grinding higher for a while now, but it just can’t get above that crucial 0.6550 level. And until that’s the case, it’s a short-term back and forth type of range-bound market more than anything else. If we break down below the moving averages, then we could see a drop to the 0.6350 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.