April 30, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecasts Revised to 1.15 (from 1.04) at HSBC

After surging to 3-year highs above 1.1550, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has been in corrective mode with buying below 1.1300.

US economic concerns have increased, although the dollar has demonstrated some resilience in global markets. There will be some impact from month-end trading during the day which may mask underlying trends.

Scotiabank commented; “The latest period of consolidation has not yet violated the bullish trend, as this would require a break below the mid-1.12s. The softening RSI is worrisome however, and hints at waning momentum. Near-term support is expected around 1.1300 and near-term resistance is expected above 1.1500.”

HSBC has revised its end-2025 EUR/USD forecast to 1.15 from 1.04 previously.

According to the bank; “cyclical, political and structural debates prompting us to abandon our dollar bullish journey. New FX forecasts entail a weaker USD; it will take time before we want to get back on board.”

According to ING; “While the data flow should continue to prove a net-negative, markets are clearly welcoming Trump’s efforts to ease some tariff pain. We still believe that a constant flow of constructive news on trade (especially regarding China) is needed to keep equities and the dollar supported, but for now, it might be enough to let the dollar stabilise into Friday’s payrolls.”

MUFG expects the Wall Street performance will be important with sharp US losses on Wednesday; “the price action in equities indicates recession is not anticipated and if the data points in that direction, which we believe is likely, then equities are unlikely to hold these levels.”

It added; “Renewed risk-off in equities combined with falling front-end yields as Fed rate cuts become more likely will only reinforce the downside momentum for the dollar.”

The latest ADP data reported an increase in private payrolls of 62,000 for April compared with consensus forecasts of around 115,000 while the March increase was revised slightly lower to 147,000 from the flash reading of 155,000.

ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson commented; “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”

MUFG commented; “There is compelling evidence now that the US labour market is set to deteriorate although whether that will be evident as soon as in the NFP data for April to be released on Friday is less clear.”

US GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at an annualised -0.3% compared with the previous figure of 2.4%.

Consumer spending was positive at 1.8% from 4.0% previously while investment posted a significant gain.

There was, however, a surge in imports ahead of the imposition of tariffs and this was the key element pushing the economy into contraction territory while government spending also edged lower.

ING commented; “We suspect personal spending figures may not look that grim, and that the dollar can show some resilience to a negative GDP print today.”

According to Scotiabank the overall dollar performance has been disappointing; “The USD has not benefited in an obvious way from anticipated month-end flows which may be another sign of trouble if that absence of demand reflects foreign investors choosing not to adjust hedges after the past month’s swings in US asset markets where US fixed income especially has underperformed.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 30, 2025

• The British pound pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we are hanging around the 1.34 level.
• The 1.34 level has been important more than once.
• And I think at this point in time, it does make a certain amount of sense that we see a lot of back and forth.
• The market is starting to suggest that maybe they could break out to the upside. This is what momentum over the last few months may suggest, but we have work to do.

And the candlestick from the Monday session was rather impressive. That suggests that we have the ability to eventually break out to the upside and maybe even go as high as the 1.3675 level where we had a resistance barrier. On the other hand, this is an area that has been important multiple times in the past. And if we pull back from here, it’s likely that we could drop down pretty nastily. The 1.32 level I think is support though. So, it’s really not until we break down below there that I would start shorting.

US Dollar Under Attack Overall

Keep in mind that the US dollar of course has been under attack by multiple currencies at the moment and the British pound does seem to be seeing a lot of inflows still despite the fact that it is most certainly overbought. I like the idea of attempting a long in this GBP/USD currency pair on either a break above the highs of the last couple of days or a pullback in a bounce, especially near the 1.32 level.

If we break below the 1.32 level and we see the U S dollar strengthening against other currencies as well, then it’s time to start selling. In that environment, we may have seen a complete shift in sentiment.

Ready to trade our daily GBP/USD Forex forecast? Here’s some of the best forex broker UK reviews to check out.

Created on April 30, 2025

• The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday but has given back most of the gains.
• By doing so, this suggests that we are in fact going to continue to see a lot of hesitation.
• I do think that we are still in the midst of trying to form some type of supportive of basing pattern, especially as the ¥140 level seems to be a bit of an epicenter for support.
• Area that I think will remember the previous attempt to break down the road, so I do think that it is an epicenter of importance.

Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to pay close attention to the overall tariff situation, which Japan is a major player when it comes to global trade. The Americans and the Japanese are getting fairly close to some type of deal from what we are hearing in the news, so that could have a major influence on what happens next. All things being equal, if we were to break down below the ¥140 level, that would probably end up being a very negative turn of events.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this USD/JPY pair is rather negative, but you can also make an argument that the ¥140 level is so supportive that you at least have to start to look for the idea of forming a basing pattern, which is the beginning of turning this whole thing around. If we were to break higher, there are multiple areas that I would be concerned about if I were long, starting with the ¥144 level, followed by the 50 Day EMA near the ¥146.75.

I do believe that this will probably end up being a very noisy market that is choppy and difficult, so be aware of the fact that we could see some issues hanging onto positions for a lot of traders. Position sizing will be crucial as usual, and therefore you need to be aware of your size as well.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Created on April 30, 2025

• The Euro was a bit negative during the trading session on Tuesday. Again, as we continue to see a lot of back and forth.
• The back and forth of course is a sign that the market is trying to work off some of that excess froth.
• At this point, the 1.15 level is a major resistance barrier. And if we can break above there, then it really sends the market much higher.

Underneath we have the 1.13 level is a significant support level. And therefore, I think we’re just kind of stuck in this range. And the fact that we are trying to work off some of the excess buying pressure and basically absorb all of that momentum is not a surprise.

Don’t Forget the Non-Farm Payroll Announcement on Friday

And you have to recognize the fact that Friday is non-farm payroll, so that has a major influence as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think we are going to continue to see a lot of indecision. So if you are a short-term trader, this might be the market for you going back and forth with a range-bound system. By the end of the week, we might get some resolution. But I would say this, if we break back below the 1.12 level, I think that unravels the entire narrative at the moment, and we probably go lower.

On a move above the recent highs, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 1.18 level, but it may take some time to get there. After all, EUR/USD is a pair that spends a lot of time doing very little under normal circumstances, although admittedly, we are not normal circumstances at the moment. Back and forth, I think, is where we’re going.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best forex demo accounts worth trading with.

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

April 29, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Drifts, Dollar Supported by US-China Tariff Optimism

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was on the back foot on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLT’s job openings data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3409, down roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) managed gain ground against most of its counterparts, despite some worse-than-expected domestic data.

The latest JOLT’s job openings report for March showed a decline from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, falling short of expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Adding to the ‘Greenback’s’ challenges was the release of the US’s latest CB consumer confidence index, which dropped from 93.9 to 86.

However, despite these underwhelming figures, the US Dollar gained strength against the majority of its peers, partly due to increased optimism surrounding the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, and hopes for de-escalation.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) failed to gain momentum and weakened against several major currencies despite the absence of fresh domestic data.

The Pound’s performance was primarily shaped by market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), as investors now anticipate a 25 basis-point reduction at the BoE’s meeting next week.

Sterling’s decline was also exacerbated by signs of a slowing economy amid rising geopolitical tensions. The EY Item Club downgraded its UK GDP forecasts, projecting growth of 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, down from earlier estimates of 1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will likely be a duo of high impact data releases from the US.

The US will unveil its latest GDP figures and its most recent core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

If both data points come in as expected, with GDP forecast to decline and the core PCE price index expected to show a slowdown in inflation, then USD exchange rate could face significant headwinds during mid-week trading.

For the UK, there are no scheduled economic data releases on Wednesday, so the Pound is likely to be influenced by broader market trends and global sentiment.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

April 29, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Drifts, Dollar Supported by US-China Tariff Optimism

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was on the back foot on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLT’s job openings data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3409, down roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) managed gain ground against most of its counterparts, despite some worse-than-expected domestic data.

The latest JOLT’s job openings report for March showed a decline from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, falling short of expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Adding to the ‘Greenback’s’ challenges was the release of the US’s latest CB consumer confidence index, which dropped from 93.9 to 86.

However, despite these underwhelming figures, the US Dollar gained strength against the majority of its peers, partly due to increased optimism surrounding the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, and hopes for de-escalation.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) failed to gain momentum and weakened against several major currencies despite the absence of fresh domestic data.

The Pound’s performance was primarily shaped by market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), as investors now anticipate a 25 basis-point reduction at the BoE’s meeting next week.

Sterling’s decline was also exacerbated by signs of a slowing economy amid rising geopolitical tensions. The EY Item Club downgraded its UK GDP forecasts, projecting growth of 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, down from earlier estimates of 1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will likely be a duo of high impact data releases from the US.

The US will unveil its latest GDP figures and its most recent core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

If both data points come in as expected, with GDP forecast to decline and the core PCE price index expected to show a slowdown in inflation, then USD exchange rate could face significant headwinds during mid-week trading.

For the UK, there are no scheduled economic data releases on Wednesday, so the Pound is likely to be influenced by broader market trends and global sentiment.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 29, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1370 – 1.1300 – 1.1240.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1440 – 1.1520 – 1.1600.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1280 with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss at 1.1190.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1530.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Ahead of a batch of important and influential US economic releases, bulls attempted to push the EUR/USD price upwards with gains to the resistance level of 1.1425, which reinforces expectations for a move towards the 1.1500 resistance again. Before the rebound, we observed stability in the US dollar price in global markets, but sentiment remains cautious. Forex market experts believe that the worst-case scenario for EUR/USD is likely the support level of 1.1250, and in the event of surprising US data, the 1.1500 resistance is the risk, especially if any of the US jobs data this week indicates that uncertainty about tariffs has already led to layoffs.

Regarding the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD price, Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target rate of 1.20.

Trading Tips:

Traders are advised that easing geopolitical and global trade tensions will favor an upward rebound for the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, monitor closely the factors affecting exchange rates to seize the best trading opportunities.

EUR/USD Trading Scenarios:

EUR/USD bullish scenario: will occur technically with a move towards the 1.1500 resistance, which in turn will push technical indicators – the 14-day RSI and the MACD – towards overbought barriers. This resistance will stimulate technical buying trades to move towards peaks that reinforce the bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair in the coming days. This could be fueled by negative US jobs figures this week, along with a weaker-than-expected US inflation reading favoured by the US Federal Reserve. Alongside these important economic data, trade talks will remain under very close scrutiny.

EUR/USD bearish scenario: Based on the performance on the daily chart, a break of the EUR/USD support level of 1.1260 will remain a threat to the upside. Stability below this level will encourage bears to move towards the next important support levels, 1.1145 and 1.1000, respectively, which will confirm a shift in the general trend to a downside. With the second support, the RSI will move towards the midline, returning the technical performance to neutral.

Today’s EUR/USD trading will be affected by the announcement of the German GFK Consumer Confidence reading at 9:00 AM Cairo time, and the Spanish Growth and Inflation reading at 10:00 AM Cairo time. Most importantly, the US JOLTS Job Openings and US Consumer Confidence readings will be announced at 5:00 PM Cairo time. These are all preliminary indicators of the US jobs figures, the official figures of which will be announced at the end of the week.

US trade wars continue to affect the currency market, according to forex trading. Caution is likely to prevail in the short term, especially if the US administration’s rhetoric does not match reality. Late Friday, US President Trump claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called, but Beijing denied this, insisting there were no trade negotiations.

According to Bank of America, the US dollar could fall more rapidly if the trade negotiations fail. A de-escalation in the trade war and a refocus on pro-growth policies could help the US dollar recover, but we don’t expect the risk premium to completely disappear anytime soon. The bank added that US trade policies and the uncertainty surrounding them are hurting Europe, but are worse for the US. We continue to believe the risks are tilted toward further euro strength as a result of potential European reforms and EU pressure to strike trade deals elsewhere, assuming no trade escalation occurs between the EU and the US.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best forex demo accounts worth trading with.

Created on April 29, 2025

• The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Monday but then fell against the Japanese yen.
• The Japanese yen has been very strong for some time, and the euro has been testing the upside.
• I think you’ve got a situation where you are basically stuck in a range, which makes this a very interesting place to be if you are in fact a range bound trader, as you can take advantage of a fairly well-defined short-term range.

That short-term range is basically supported by the ¥161.50 level, as well as resisted near the ¥164 level. In other words, we are essentially in the middle of this range, so it does suggest that we are going to be somewhat neutral at this moment, and it’s probably worth noting that the 200 Day EMA sits just below current trading. Underneath there, we also have the 50 Day EMA, which in and of itself will attract a lot of attention.

Risk Appetite

Remember that the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, so we need risk appetite to pick up in order to see the euro gain against it. That being said, if we can break above the ¥165 level, then the euro can truly take off against the Japanese yen. All things being equal, that would take a significant amount of momentum, as well as effort. On a pullback to the 50 Day EMA, then I would be looking for some type of reversal. If we were to break down below the ¥160 level, then it’s likely that we could go down to the ¥158 level, possibly the ¥155 level.

Ultimately, a lot of this will probably come down to the risk appetite of the markets, and the fact that the tariff situation continues to be very difficult for traders to hang onto. The market has been very noisy, and I think that will continue to be the case. Until proven wrong, I am more likely than not going to continue to look at this as a market that remains sideways for the time being, and therefore a range bound system is to be employed.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.