• GBP/USD weekly forecast remains bullish amid broad dollar weakness.
• Weaker US data and easing US-China trade tensions support the pound.
• All eyes are on the BoE and FOMC meetings due next week.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast remains strongly bullish as the pair hits its third consecutive week in gains. The price marked a 39-month top at 1.3635 before pulling back ahead of the weekend.

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The bullish momentum gained traction after a period of consolidation earlier in the week. The weaker dollar and improved risk sentiment helped the buyers. However, the key catalyst was progress in the US-China trade negotiation, concluded in London with an agreement to ease restrictions on exports, including rare earth metals. Though the announcement had no details, it boosted risk appetite and weighed on the safe-haven Greenback.

The US inflation data surprised the market to the downside, with a 0.1% rise on a monthly basis, which dragged annual inflation to 2.4%, missing the estimate of 2.5%. The core inflation also remained downbeat, increasing odds for a dovish Fed. This was further fueled by softer US PPI data and rising weekly jobless claims that deepened the USD losses and provided additional strength to the pound.

However, the rally proved to be short-lived. Geopolitical tensions ignited later in the week due to Israel’s attack on Iran, killing Iranian military officials and scientists. Iran responded in retaliation, which escalated the fear of broader conflict.

The safe-haven demand for the US dollar soared on the news that triggered a significant pullback of more than a hundred pips in the GBP/USD pair. The downward pressure was further intensified by the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index that rose to 60.5, well above the expected 53.5.

Major Events for GBP/USD in the Week Ahead

Looking ahead, next week, the market participants will focus on the upcoming central bank meetings. Both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are set to announce their key policy decisions midweek. Consensus suggests no change from either the Fed, which is expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50%, or the BoE, which is also expected to hold rates at 4.25%.

Moreover, the US and UK retail sales data, along with UK CPI and US jobless claims, will be important to watch. Meanwhile, geopolitics and the Fed’s further commentary will also shape the outlook.

GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Bulls Supported by 20-SMA

The daily chart of the GBP/USD suggests a consolidation within a broad uptrend. The Friday pullback remained strongly supported by the 20-day SMA. Meanwhile, a strong support zone also emerges in the 1.3420-60 area. The daily RSI is at 58.00 with a tilt to the downside, which suggests further consolidation.

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On the upside, the resistance lies at 1.3600, which is a round number ahead of 1.3635, which is a fresh 39-month top. Breaking the level may gather enough traction to test 1.3700.

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June 13, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR Tumbles After Israel Strike on Iran

Israel’s Iran Strikes Trigger USD Rebound, Euro Retreats Versus US Dollar from 43-Month Highs

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) surged to 43-month highs just above 1.1630 on Thursday as the dollar came under renewed pressure.

There was, however, a sharp retreat to lows below 1.1520 on Friday following Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities with a surge in geo-political tensions and a spike in oil prices while equity markets retreated.

According to ING; “we think the starting point was already quite rich for the pair, and a return to the 1.14-1.15 seems entirely appropriate.”

Danske Bank noted; “The attack adds significant uncertainty to diplomacy, with US officials denying direct involvement while cautioning that it could either hinder or, unexpectedly, pressure Iran towards discussions.”

The Israeli strikes have added to underlying trade and economic uncertainty. There will inevitably be unease over any escalation while markets are closed with demand for safe-haven assets.

OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong commented; “Geopolitical noise may temporarily distort the dollar downtrend and temporarily weigh on risk proxies especially heading into the weekend.”

According to ING; “The key difference from previous Israel-Iran standoffs is that nuclear facilities have now been targeted, and while oil production does not seem to be affected just yet, markets have to add in a bigger risk premium given the crucial role of Iran in global oil supply.”

Nordea commented; “Geopolitical worries added to the list of potential headwinds for risk appetite, with Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran retaliating. Oil prices shot up as a result, though from rather low levels.”

It added; “It is worth remembering that geopolitical tensions like these seldom remain the main market driver for a longer time, though as noted, this time they are by far not the only factor causing worries.”

According to ING; “The risks now point more definitively towards a prolonged period of tension, in contrast to recent episodes. And we think this could continue to take some pressure off the dollar.”

There are still doubts whether the dollar can secure sustained support given fundamental concerns and risk of capital outflows.

The Euro has also gained net support from increased speculation that the ECB will decide against further interest rate cuts.

MUFG commented; “The developments could provide a timely test of the US dollar’s traditional safe haven appeal after it hit fresh year to date lows yesterday prior to Israel’s military strikes.”

In this context, the dollar was subjected to further selling pressure on Thursday with further evidence of a softer labour market reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would move close to interest rate cuts.

Continuing jobless claims rose to their highest level since November 2021.

MUFG commented; “we still expect the Fed to be reluctant to cut rates at upcoming policy meetings in June or July until they have more clarity over US trade policy and impact on inflation and labour market.”

It added; “At the same time, the release yesterday of the latest weekly initial and continuing claims have added to concerns that the US labour market is continuing to soften in response to trade disruption and heightened policy uncertainty.”

ING, however, also considers that the dollar is over-sold; “We had felt the USD negative reaction to the soft CPI print was exaggerated, and new geopolitical tensions give the Fed another argument to stay cautious, arguing for that CPI move to be scaled back.”

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• GBP/USD trades deep in negative territory slightly below 1.3550 on Friday.
• Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets.
• The pair’s near-term technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum.

GBP/USD declines sharply and trades below 1.3550 in the European session on Friday after posting its highest daily close since February 2022 on Thursday. The risk-averse market environment could make it difficult for the pair to regain its traction heading into the weekend.

The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) allowed GBP/USD to gather bullish momentum on Thursday. After suffering large losses against its major rivals on weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday, the USD continued to weaken on Thursday as the data published by the Department of Labor showed that there were 248,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending June 7, compared to the market forecast of 240,000.

Early Friday, safe-haven flows started to dominate the action in financial markets after Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that they have launched “Operation Rising Lion,” targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile factories and its military capabilities. In response, Iran’s Armed Forces General staff said that Israel and the US will “pay a very heavy price.” 

The USD seems to be benefiting from the flight to safety, causing GBP/USD to push lower. The US economic calendar will feature the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for June. Investors are likely to pay little to no attention to this data and remain focused on the developments surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict. Unless there is a de-escalation, market participants could stay away from risk-sensitive assets.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly below 50 and GBP/USD trades near the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting the loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, the 100-period SMA forms the immediate support level at 1.3520 before 1.3460 (static level) and 1.3420 (200-period SMA). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3600 (mid-point of the ascending channel), 1.3630 (static level) and 1.3700 (static level, round level).

Copper price neediness to the momentum in the last trading led to delay the bullish attempts, to notice its fluctuations below the barrier near $4.8100, and providing an intraday negative rebound at $4.7100.

Note that the price success to settle above 50% Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600 will assist to reinforce the chances for activating the bullish track until breaching the mentioned barrier, while breaking this support will increase the negative pressure on the current trading, which force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $4.6000 and $4.5300.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8100

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

Copper price neediness to the momentum in the last trading led to delay the bullish attempts, to notice its fluctuations below the barrier near $4.8100, and providing an intraday negative rebound at $4.7100.

Note that the price success to settle above 50% Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600 will assist to reinforce the chances for activating the bullish track until breaching the mentioned barrier, while breaking this support will increase the negative pressure on the current trading, which force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $4.6000 and $4.5300.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8100

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

• The British pound has shown itself to be somewhat strong during the trading session here on Thursday but has also given back some of the very extended gains for the session.
• So, I think at this point in time, we have to look at this through the prism of a market that may not be able to really make a decision quite yet.
• I think we are in a scenario where traders are looking at this through the prism of the weaker than anticipated inflation numbers coming out of the United States, which of course has people thinking that the Federal Reserve is not going to be able to keep rates as high as they are at the moment. And that has definitely made an impact on the US dollar.

Bulls? Are You Still There?

So, the question now is, can we continue to go higher? We are right here at an area that previously had been a bit of a headache. So, I think short-term pullbacks probably attract attention that people are willing to pay to the British pound. It’s been a fairly decent mover against the US dollar for some time now, even though it was falling, it was falling less than other currencies.

So, I would anticipate that the British pound probably continues to be a currency that should outperform the US dollar and outperform other currencies against the US dollar. That being said, we are a little stretched and it does look like we are going a little bit sideways more than anything else. So do keep that in mind. In this environment, I think the 1.35 level offers support down to the 1.34 level.

Underneath there you have the 50 day EMA. I don’t really have any interest in shorting this market, although I’m the first one to say that we are oversold in the US dollar. But the reality here is that we definitely see a bullish market, so drops have to be thought of as potential value.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1430 – 1.1360 – 1.1290
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1520 – 1.1600 – 1.1720

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1380 with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss at 1.1300.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1300 and a stop-loss at 1.1640.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Following the release of US inflation figures, the EUR/USD currency pair surged to the doorstep of the 1.1500 resistance, nearing its highest levels since June 2021. The Euro’s gains against the US Dollar intensified as investors assessed the growing divergence in monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve. Recent statements from ECB officials have reinforced expectations that the central bank may soon pause its monetary easing cycle, adopting a wait-and-see approach to evaluate the economic impact of new US tariffs. In May, Eurozone inflation fell to 1.9%, while the ECB cut its interest rate for the eighth consecutive time, bringing the deposit facility rate down to 2%.

Meanwhile, the European bloc’s economy has shown resilience, growing by 0.6% in the first quarter, the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2022.

Conversely, weaker-than-expected US inflation data weighed on the dollar, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as September. However, uncertainty remains, as inflation and the labour market remain relatively resilient, while headwinds to growth from tariffs continue to mount.

Will the EUR/USD rise in the coming days?

Dear reader, according to forex market experts, overall market volatility has decreased with narrower trading ranges, but financial markets remain highly cautious that underlying tensions could quickly ignite a new round of turmoil. On another note, trade negotiations will continue, and another important US Treasury bond auction is scheduled for later today following the latest inflation data. Markets are also monitoring political developments, including the US administration’s reaction to the Los Angeles protests and potential threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Trading Advice:

We still recommend selling the Euro against the US Dollar on every upward rebound, while continuously monitoring market influencing factors and avoiding risk, regardless of how strong the trading opportunities may seem.

Amidst these factors, the EUR/USD pair appears to have entered a trading range, likely between 1.1330 and 1.1495. Generally, the US Dollar will largely determine the EUR/USD’s direction today, with some potential support near 1.1400. There’s a possibility for it to rise above 1.1500 if pressure on the US Dollar continues. The next key resistance will be 1.1575, which would push technical indicators towards strong overbought levels, particularly the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator. The EUR/USD pair will be influenced by remaining US inflation figures, weekly US jobless claims data (all due at 3:30 PM Egypt time), and the future of US-China trade negotiations.

Global Bank Forecasts for EUR/USD:

According to the insights and forecasts of global currency market experts, the Euro is expected to rise to its highest level against the US Dollar since 2021 this year. This conclusion comes from analysts at two major investment banks who have revised their mid-year currency market forecasts. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Nomura anticipates that the Euro will benefit from shifts in asset allocation and divergences in fiscal, monetary, and foreign exchange policies. This call comes amid a significant re-evaluation of US economic prospects by international investors, who have become more cautious under a potential second Trump presidency.

At the same time, questions regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence have been raised following repeated attacks from Trump. Meanwhile, his new spending and tax bill – the “Big, Beautiful Bill” – promises to increase the US debt burden, including a provision for special taxes on foreign investors. And of course, there is significant uncertainty on the trade front, with a sharp increase in tariffs. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley predicts that US trade and increasing fiscal policy uncertainty will keep the US Dollar risk premium elevated, and the steepening or flattening of the US yield curve contributes to the weakening of the US Dollar against its counterparts like the Euro.

On another note, Relative stability in Europe, coupled with Germany’s commitment to infrastructure and defence investments, is making the euro an alternative destination for foreign investors. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley added, “We maintain our bullish recommendation on the EUR/USD pair.”

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• The Euro rallied significantly against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see more of a move into risk appetite in what was an overall volatile market in various markets.
• All things being equal, keep in mind that the Japanese yen is considered to be a “safety currency”, one of the euro, although not necessarily a Third World currency, is considered to be a little bit “riskier” than the Japanese yen.

In other words, if we start to see more risk taken in the market, then it makes a certain amount of sense that this market would take off from here. All things being equal, this is a situation where traders will continue to pay close attention to the trade war, and of course the normally is around tariffs. Ultimately, we had seen a comment on social media by Donald Trump that the United States and China may have come to an agreement, and that may have helped this trade peripherally.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is bullish, and I look at the ¥165 level as a potential support level. The ¥165 level is an area that has been rather important as resistance previously, so I think you’ve got a situation where there should be a certain amount of value hunting in this general vicinity, and I think that will continue to support the market. On a breakdown below the ¥165 level, then I would be looking at the 50 Day EMA near the ¥163.11 level as the next major support level.

Ultimately, I think one of the things that traders will be paying attention to is the fact that the Bank of Japan has to keep monetary policy rather loose, and therefore the Japanese yen will continue to be somewhat damaged. Ultimately, I think this is a market that remains very much “buy on the pullbacks.”

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The GBP/USD forecast remains supported despite downbeat UK GDP data.
• Cooler US CPI and tariff uncertainty keep the dollar weaker.
• Market participants are now eyeing US PPI and unemployment claims data due today.

The GBP/USD forecast remains broadly bullish amid the dollar’s weakness. However, today’s UK GDP data reported by the ONS showed economic contraction faster than expected. On Wednesday, the price saw a significant rise near 1.3600 as the US CPI reported softer-than-expected, raising concerns for the Fed’s “higher for longer” policy.

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The British pound slipped from the daily highs above 1.3580 towards the 1.3525 area before finding a renewed strength. The pair is trading at 1.3580 at the time of writing.

The UK GDP was expected to shrink -0.1% against the previous reading of 0.2% for March. However, the figures came at -0.3% for April, missing estimate, putting the pound under pressure. The ONS reported that the sharp fall in the GDP is attributed to the reduced goods exports to the US. The last four months reported consecutive rises in the economy, while April saw the largest monthly fall.

The higher-than-projected decline in the UK economy combined with the rising unemployment may force the Bank of England to continue with easing policy. In May, the bank had opted for the gradual and careful easing by slashing the rates by 25 bps to 4.5%. These economic shocks may increase the speculation of BoE’s more rate cuts.

On the other side of the equation, the US dollar remains weak on Thursday as President Trump threatened to send the letters to the countries not negotiating in good faith to accept his imposed tariffs.

Key Events Ahead

• US PPI
• US Unemployment Claims

GBP/USD technical forecast: Broad consolidation within uptrend

The GBP/USD daily chart shows a strong bullish trend as the price moves north within the uptrend. The pair remains strongly supported by the 20-day SMA. However, the pair shows consolidation within the range of 1.3480 to 1.3616. The 14-day RSI is at 60.0, which shows the pair is not overbought yet and has a tendency to gain further.

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Alternatively, breaking the 20-day SMA may gather strong selling traction, and the price may slip towards the lower boundary of the channel at 1.3270 ahead of 1.3200.

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• The US dollar initially rallied during Wednesday’s trading session, but the 145 yen level continues to act as a strong resistance.
• This level has held firm, and it’s widely seen as a critical threshold.
• Adding to the challenge is the 50-day EMA hovering just above, which could further hinder upward momentum.

Nonetheless, I think this is a market where the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar. And despite the fact that CPI was a little bit cooler than anticipated in America, I still think we have to pay close attention to the whole idea of the trade situation between the United States and China having a major influence on risk appetite as well. After all, the Japanese yen is considered to be the ultimate safety currency, if you will.

Pullbacks Could Be Interesting

So, we’ll have to see how that plays out. With that being said, I think you have a scenario where a pullback almost certainly gets bought into just as a breakout almost certainly will get bought into. I don’t really have any interest in trying to short this market right now as the 142 yen level has been important multiple times.

I think that your floor breaking down below there opens up the possibility of a drop down to the 140 yen level, which has even more ramifications from a support standpoint. All things being equal, this is a market that I am positive on, but I recognize you’re going to have to sit around and just get paid to swap and be very patient between now and the move that we do end up having. A lot of patience here goes a long way.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.