The (ETHUSD) price settled low in its last intraday trading, after breaking the key support at $4,150, amid the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, and under the dominance of bearish correctional wave on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a bias line that reinforces the stability of this track, especially with the emergence of the negative signal on the (RSI), after it succeeded in offloading its oversold conditions in its previous trading, opening the way for recording more of the losses.
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The EURJPY pair didn’t settle above 172.00 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, forming some of the bearish correctional waves and its stability near 171.65.
The continuation of the negative pressures will force it to suffer more of the losses, to expect attacking 170.45 level, to extend the losses towards 169.80 which might form a neckline for the negative double top level, therefore, we recommend monitoring the price behavior when reaching this level to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 170.45 and 172.30
The British pound initially trying to rally during the trading session here on Tuesday but has given back those gains pretty quickly.
Ultimately, I think you’ve got a scenario where traders are going to look at this through the prism of a potential downtrend tying to form.
And I am seeing this across the Forex world where the US dollar is supposed to be crumbling and losing its status as the world’s reserve currency is basically fighting tooth and nail with a lot of these currencies.
I’m Not Shorting, But…
Now, having said that, the British pound is not necessarily where I’m looking to short if I’m going to start trading in favor of the US dollar. But if this one gives it up, everybody else doesn’t stand a chance because the British pound has been the all-star, if you will, of currency trading recently.
After all the market is very strong for the British pound until recently. And while other currencies did fairly well, the British pound not only did well on the way up, but it did well on the way down when the U S dollar was destroying everything in its site, the British pound did okay. It fell less than others. So, I watched this chart very closely as an indicator on how the US dollar is going to do because of its show strength here. It’s going to destroy Canadian dollars, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Japanese yen, the euro to a point, Swiss franc to a point. But we are seeing a bifurcation between Europe and Asia.
There are some outliers out there like the Mexican peso that might do okay just because of the interest rate differential between it and the US dollar, but the British pound is the harbinger of everything at this point. If we can break above the 1.36 level in this pair, then I think the US dollar really starts to suffer at the hands of pretty much everybody. So while we are still very much in an uptrend, it’s not lost on me that we are struggling at the same place yet again. Jackson Hole Symposium speeches at the end of the week could be the final nail in the coffin of whichever direction we pick. Right now, the dollar looks like it’s not quite ready to give up.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD: Monthly Employment Earnings to Spotlight the RBA
Turning to the AUD/USD pair, investors are bracing for crucial wage data. Wage growth trends are a key consideration for the RBA and monetary policy decisions.
Rising wages may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. A higher inflation outlook could reduce expectations of a Q4 RBA rate cut, lifting demand for the Aussie dollar.
On the other hand, softer wage growth could dampen demand-driven inflation, supporting further RBA rate cuts.
According to the ABA, total wages and salaries paid by employers rose 0.9% month-on-month in March and by 5.8% year-on-year. The Wage Price Index, a separate wage growth indicator, rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter.
AMP Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver projected a November rate cut and further policy easing in H1 2026, stating:
“We continue to see the RBA cutting rates again in November, February and May taking the cash rate down to 2.85%.”
Will today’s wage data confirm Oliver’s forecast—or surprise markets?
Beyond the data, the People’s Bank of China’s loan prime rate decision could influence AUD/USD trends. Markets predict the PBoC will leave the one-year and five-year LPRs at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. A surprise cut to LPRs could boost domestic demand, potentially improving Aussie trade terms.
For context, Australia has a trade-GDP ratio of over 50%, with roughly one-third of shipments bound for China.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Softer wage growth or dovish RBA guidance. These factors could push AUD/USD below the $0.6450 support level, potentially exposing the crucial $0.6400 support level.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Stronger wage growth or hawkish RBA rhetoric. These factors could send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA, bringing the 50-day EMA into play.
Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook: Fed Policy Guidance and Rate Differentials
Later today, Fed speeches will draw interest as the Jackson Hole Symposium looms. Recent US inflation-linked data have affected Fed rate cut bets and US-Aussie rate differentials.
Hawkish Fed signals, calling for a delay to interest rate cuts, would widen the rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A wider rate differential could push AUD/USD toward the $0.6400 support level. If breached, the $0.63500 mark would be the next key support level.
Conversely, increased support for a September Fed rate cut and cuts in the fourth quarter would narrow the rate differential. A narrower rate differential may send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA, paving the way to the 50-day EMA.
Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Muted amid Souring Trade
The Pound Sterling was trapped in a narrow range against the US Dollar on Tuesday despite a risk-off market sentiment.
While largely steady versus the Pound (GBP), the US Dollar (USD) managed to gain ground against several other major currencies on Tuesday.
Even in the absence of market-moving releases, the ‘Greenback’ drew support from a prevailing risk-off market mood.
The cautious tone bolstered the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly against its riskier rivals.
At the same time, investors remained hesitant to take aggressive positions on the Dollar ahead of key events later in the week, including the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) showed little conviction, with a quiet UK economic calendar leaving Sterling largely influenced by overall market sentiment.
Amid a downbeat market mood, the currency fell back against a number of safe-haven peers, highlighting its sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite.
Equally, the risk environment allowed GBP to make small gains against more risk-sensitive currencies on Tuesday.
With no new domestic data to guide its movement, Sterling fluctuated against most of its key counterparts.
GBP/USD: UK and US Releases to Drive Movement
Looking ahead to Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair is expected to respond to key economic releases from both the UK and the US.
In the United States, investors will focus on the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which could weigh on the US Dollar if they signal a dovish stance and reinforce expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the UK is set to publish July’s consumer price index (CPI), with forecasts pointing to a modest rise from 3.6% to 3.7%.
Should the inflation data meet expectations, Sterling may find support, potentially pushing GBP higher against the US Dollar during Wednesday’s European session.
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The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during trading here on Tuesday, but at this juncture, it just looks like a market that continues to see a lot of noise at the 148 yen level. If and when we can finally leave this area, the next target might be 151 yen, as that’s basically where we saw all the massive selling from a couple of weeks ago.
And keep in mind that despite the fact there is a general consensus that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting, the interest rate differential still heavily favors the US dollar. And that’s something that eventually will come back into the picture. The 50-day EMA underneath offering support is worth paying close attention to because if we break down below there, we could find ourselves dropping to 146 yen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has done next to nothing in the early hours here on Tuesday, perhaps waiting for the interest rate decision out of New Zealand, as the two currencies move somewhat lockstep with each other, because there will be a sympathy related move when we get that announcement early in Wednesday trading. So, I think at this point, it makes a certain amount of sense that a pair that’s been admittedly quiet and sideways anyways, isn’t doing much. The 0.6550 level continues to be an area of resistance that I’m willing to fade at the first signs of exhaustion.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady after a recent collapse.
The US has promised to guarantee Ukraine’s safety in case of a peace deal.
Traders are pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.
The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady after a recent collapse due to dollar strength. The dollar paused its rally as safe-haven demand dropped after the meeting between Trump and Zelensky ended well. Meanwhile, focus is shifting towards the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on Fed rate cuts.
Trump and Zelenskiy’s meeting went well, with the two leaders seeming to be on the same page. The US has promised to guarantee Ukraine’s safety in case of a peace deal with Russia. Last week, the meeting between Trump and Putin also ended well. The US president noted that Putin was more willing to work towards a peace deal instead of a ceasefire deal. Nevertheless, markets remain uncertain about the future.
Elsewhere, the Fed will meet during the Jackson Hole Symposium, and traders will watch Powell’s tone. After recent US data, traders are pricing an over 80% chance of a cut in September. Moreover, they expect policymakers to sound more dovish. However, experts have warned that Powell might not give a clear signal on rate cuts.
GBP/USD key events today
Market participants are not anticipating any high-impact economic releases from the UK or the US.
GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price action signals a new trend
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA after failing to break above the 1.3575 resistance level. The break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, suggesting a surge in bearish momentum.
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Initially, the price was climbing in a developed bullish trend, with the price keeping above the 30-SMA. However, the price failed to make a higher high when bulls met the 1.3575 resistance level. Instead, it made a lower high and broke below the SMA to make a lower low. This pattern shows the beginning of a downtrend.
However, bears must keep the price below the SMA and respect it as a resistance. If this happens, the price will likely drop to retest the 1.3401 support level. On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will likely retest the 1.3575 resistance.
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Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1580 support level, with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1785 resistance level, with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1860.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The EUR/USD pair is still trading in a limited, cautious, and neutral-to-bullish range. According to reliable trading platforms, the euro’s half-percent gain against the dollar last Friday was a strong reminder that the single currency continues to attract solid buying interest on any dips. As the EUR/USD heads for another climb in August, a move past the 1.1735 resistance, and from there to the psychological peak of 1.1800, is possible this week. Success, however, will depend on whether Ukraine and Russia make progress toward a peace agreement and whether Jerome Powell meets market expectations for a September rate cut.
According to forex trading experts, this week will be dominated by Ukrainian peace talks and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday. Given these risks, the chart shows the EUR/USD pair is on the rise again. Our weekly forecast model is positive, as the EUR/USD is holding above the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently at 1.1664 and rising. Above this level, our outlook for the week is positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also above 50, although it appears somewhat stable, which may reflect the consolidation we saw last week.
Overall, this consolidation in the rebound is embodied by the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the July and August declines. However, the move is upward, and we expect a breakout of the 1.1735 resistance level. To continue the upward trend, we need to break the 78.6% level, from which the July 24 high of 1.1788 becomes clear, followed by the psychological high of 1.1800.
Stronger Factors Influencing Currency Prices
Apart from technical analysis, we have some important risks to consider.
The first is the meeting at the beginning of the week between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Markets are already anticipating progress, as volatility indicators have dropped significantly in recent days, which is expected to support the EUR/USD. The surge in oil and gas prices in the summer of 2022, and the negative terms-of-trade shock for the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to fall below parity. Unless the Ukraine-Russia negotiations completely collapse and Trump’s “excessive rapprochement” with Putin reverses, causing oil prices to rise, we believe favorable global conditions can prevent the EUR/USD from trending downwards.
On the economic front, according to the economic calendar, eurozone inflation data is due midweek and is expected to show that inflation is within the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target, although it would take a smaller-than-expected surprise to convince the market that the ECB will make further interest rate cuts going forward.
However, the surprise factor is fading, as all major European countries will have released their domestic data, meaning the eurozone-wide figure will already be expected. The surprise factor is likely to emerge in the August PMI survey, due next Thursday. The July PMI surprised markets with its rise, revealing the economy’s return to growth, boosting euro trading. A repeat performance could help it rise again.
Jackson Hole Symposium to Strongly Influence Dollar Trading
However, the US dollar side is the most important factor for the EUR/USD relationship. All eyes are on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak. He is expected to confirm market expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike given the slowdown in US labor markets. However, he will likely dismiss hopes of a 50-basis point hike given that inflation remains elevated.
As is well known, Jackson Hole has a long history of significance for markets, as the Federal Reserve Chairman has consistently used his speech to signal shifts in monetary policy. At last year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chairman Powell sent a clear signal that it was time to begin cutting interest rates, followed by a larger 50 basis point cut at the FOMC meeting in September.
Last year, Powell said, “The time has come to adjust policy. The direction is clear,” with inflation remaining on a “sustainable path” toward its target.
At this month’s Jackson Hole Symposium, market participants will be listening closely to see if Chair Powell will endorse the pricing for a resumption of rate cuts next month. The risk is that Chair Powell refrains from giving a clear signal on the timing of the next rate cut, giving the Fed more time to continue assessing incoming data before the September FOMC meeting. Obviously, this could help to alleviate the downward pressure on the US dollar in the short term. However, analysts at ING Bank believe the speech will lean toward being cautious on the US dollar.
Trading Advice:
Traders on TradersUp are advised to avoid trading EUR/USD for now until the outcomes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict-resolution meetings are clear, as these have the strongest impact on the euro’s trajectory against other major currencies.
Copper price didn’t move anything, to keep providing slow sideways trading by its fluctuation near $4.4500, affected by the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, due to the stability of stochastic within the oversold level, to reduce the chances for renewing the suggested bullish attempts.
The stability above the extra support at $4.2600 assists to confirm the price confinement within the bullish track, to keep waiting for gathering the required positive momentum for reaching the positive stations near $4.6200 and $4.7400.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.330 and $4.6300
Despite the stability of the EURJPY pair within the bullish channel’s levels and its fluctuation above the extra support at 172.00, but we notice forming sideways fluctuation by its stability near 172.35 due to stochastic exit from the overbought level and providing negative momentum, to contradict with the suggested bullish scenario.
The stability of the price above the extra support will make it renew the bullish attempts, to target 173.20 and 173.55 level, while the decline below the support will force it to activate the bearish correctional track again, waiting for attacking 170.40 level, which represents the line of confirming the expected trend on the medium period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 173.55
