April 24, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Bullish, Next Resistance at 1.34

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) again found support close to 1.3250 and traded close to 1.3300 in Europe on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from Wednesday’s highs.

Volatility has eased to some extent, but underlying stresses remain substantial with choppy trading.

According to Scotiabank; “We look to near-term support between 1.3220 and 1.3250 and resistance between 1.3400 and 1.3420.”

MUFG is still not convinced that there is a lot of mileage in the dollar rebound; “While further steps to water down/reverse tariffs would be positive developments, we are not convinced that recent developments are sufficient yet to support a more sustained rebound for the US dollar at the current juncture.”

There have been further media headlines suggesting that the Trump Administration is planning a more conciliatory stance towards tariffs, although the underlying details have tended to be less favourable, reinforcing uncertainty.

According to Rabobank; “Pantomime policies produce pantomime markets.”

It added; “This has been fully evident in the oscillating price action in recent sessions with Trump’s ‘he’s behind you, oh no he isn’t!’ approach to governing not only prompting market reversals but even arguably resulting in the same driver provoking two diametrically-opposed reactions.”

Scotiabank commented; “The positive spin on trade reflects the reality that, at this point, the US may need an off-ramp more than China does. The Chinese leadership has not picked up the phone for the White House by some accounts and talks with China on trade have not been held even at low diplomatic levels.

It added; “It seems that there is little appetite in China to make concessions and any agreement is a long way off. Relief for the USD may be temporary as trade uncertainty will continue to shade US economic prospects.”

Underlying economic pressures will build quickly amid logistics challenges and pricing pressures.

According to Rabobank; “with a de facto US-China trade embargo in place, the US economy could see shortages on shelves within weeks and/or of price rises; and even if there is a tariff U-turn, logistics would then be overwhelmed.”

The Beige Book reported that the outlook in several districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty around tariffs rose. Immediate pricing dynamics were little changed, but most Districts noted that firms expected elevated input cost growth resulting from tariffs.

There is still a high degree of uncertainty, especially given lags and attempts to buy goods ahead of price increases and there will be mixed official data in the short term.

At this stage, markets are pricing in just below a 60% chance of a June rate cut, but the Fed will be in a very difficult position if inflation pressures increase.

MUFG commented; “The US dollar could derive more support going forward if the US economy does not slow as much as feared making it harder for the Fed to cut rates as much as currently priced in.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

April 24, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Crucial EURUSD Support Near 1.13

After finding support above 1.1300, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) posted strong gains to just below 1.14 on Thursday before settling just above 1.1350 as the dollar’s recovery from 3-year lows ran out of steam and better than expected data helped protect the Euro.

Scotiabank commented on the short-term outlook; “EURUSD remains in an uptrend, with a clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs. Recent support has been observed in the 1.1280 area and near-term resistance appears limited ahead of 1.15.”

According to ING; “The 1.130 area is key: in the past couple of weeks, attempted EUR/USD corrections faced heavy buying interest around that level. A decisive break below 1.130 can open the door for a bigger leg lower.”

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius noted the perils of forecasting; “I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than predicting growth, inflation and interest rates.”

He does, however, have strong views; “But with all due humility, I believe that the recent dollar depreciation of 5% on a broad trade-weighted basis has considerably further to go.”

Hatzius pointed to two historical periods with similar dollar valuations to the present day – the mid-1980s and early 2000s – and these set the stage for a 25-30% depreciation.

Markets are continuing to monitor trade related headlines very closely, but there have been no major developments surrounding tariff talks on Thursday.

MUFG commented; “While further steps to water down/reverse tariffs would be positive developments, we are not convinced that recent developments are sufficient yet to support a more sustained rebound for the US dollar at the current juncture.”

Scotiabank added; “Grounds for optimism on trade should remain in check, I think which will serve to keep the USD on the defensive.”

There was further relatively dovish rhetoric from Fed Governor Waller who stated that he expects tariff-related price increases would be a on-off event and that we would be willing to look through price increases.

Waller also stated that the focus on data brings the risk of being too late on policy action.

The German IFO business confidence index edged higher to 86.9 for April from 86.7 previously and significantly above consensus forecasts of 85.1.

There was a net improvement in the current conditions index with only a small retreat in the expectations component.

According to the IFO; “Uncertainty among the companies has increased. The German economy is preparing for turbulence.”

ING commented; “All in all, today’s Ifo index comes as a positive surprise.”

The bank, however, put this into perspective; “Still, we caution against too premature optimism. There are currently more unknowns than knowns for the German economy, and we continue to expect another year of stagnation – which would mark the first time ever for Germany to go through three consecutive years without growth.”

ECB rhetoric remains relatively dovish with the potential for further rate cuts while there were also reports from within the central bank that is considering changing strategy to enable more nimble moves.

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Created on April 24, 2025

• The British pound has rallied significantly against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday, as the ¥190 level has been broken.
• Breaking above the ¥190 level allows for the market to go higher, but I also recognize that this is a situation where traders will have to be somewhat cautious as the risk profile for markets around the world is all over the place.
• As a general rule, this is a market that rallies when people are feeling like taking on more risk, and falls when people are much more cautious.
• As things stand right now, caution makes quite a bit of sense as the markets remained very erratic.

Technical Analysis

Obviously, breaking above the ¥190 level is a very bullish sign, and therefore it does open up the possibility that the British Pound continues to go much higher. The 50 Day EMA is sitting right around the ¥191 level, so that might be our first barrier. If we can clear that area, then the 200 Day EMA, just above the ¥192 level, is your next potential target.

After that, the British pound could go looking to the ¥195 level. This of course would be a major coup for the British pound bulls, and an area that should see a lot of resistance. If we can break above there, then it changes the entire outlook for this pair.

That being said, rallying to the ¥195 level would not be as crazy as it sounds, because it would just be a return to the previous consolidation area that we had been in. After all, this was the ceiling previously for several months, so return to testing that makes quite a bit of sense.

If we were to break down from here, the ¥188 level is very important, and breaking below there could open up a move all the way down to the ¥185 level. While that doesn’t seem as likely, it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind for potential targeting.

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Created on April 24, 2025

• For two consecutive days, the GBP/USD currency pair has been subject to selling pressure originating from the resistance level of 1.3423, the pair’s highest in six months.
• Losses extending to the support level of 1.3233, around which today’s Thursday trading session is expected to open.
• This comes ahead of a round of US economic releases, led by the announcement of the US weekly jobless claims and US durable goods orders figures, which will be released today, Thursday, at 13:30 Saudi Arabia time.

Sterling Affected by Economic Data Results

According to Forex trading, the British pound declined against most other major currencies following the release of the latest UK services PMI data. The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April revealed a marked decline in the UK’s vital services sector, falling below the 50-point threshold for the first time in 18 months, the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Amid ongoing global disruptions stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, this month’s services sector data reflected broader economic challenges, leading to decreased demand for the British pound in mid-week trading.

Trading Tips:

The British pound will remain the best performer amid market pressure on the dollar due to Trump’s trade wars, with Britain relatively insulated from the tension.

UK stock prices rebound

According to recent trading and across stock trading platforms, the UK’s FTSE 100 index closed higher by approximately 0.9% at 8,403 points, tracking gains in major stock markets amid trader optimism that trade tensions between the US and China would soon ease. At the same time, concerns about the independence of US monetary policy subsided. Meanwhile, traders monitored the April Manufacturing and Services PMI data, along with major corporate earnings results. The latest data showed UK business activity returning to contraction in April, at its fastest rate in over two years.

According to stock prices, Croda International shares rose by 8.2%, leading the index, after the chemical group reported strong first-quarter sales. On the other hand, Fresnillo shares were among the biggest losers, falling by 5.2%, as the precious metals mining company reported a decrease in silver and gold production in the first quarter despite reaffirming its full-year production outlook.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to recent trading, the GBP/USD pair has recently retreated from its highs near 1.3490, suggesting a potential corrective move within the broader bullish trend. The pair is currently testing key Fibonacci retracement levels that could provide significant support areas for buyers. After reaching overbought conditions, the price has declined towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3153, which could offer initial support. Should selling pressure persist, the 50% retracement level at 1.3068 and the 61.8% level at 1.2983 could form the next key support areas. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is particularly important as it coincides with a previous resistance area that could now act as support.

From a broader trend perspective, the GBP/USD pair maintains its bullish structure on the daily timeframe, as evidenced by the series of higher lows and higher highs since March. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains above the 200-day SMA, confirming that the dominant trend is upward.

At the same time, both moving averages are trending upwards, reinforcing the bullish bias. The pair is also trading above an ascending trendline that has supported price action since early March. However, momentum indicators suggest some caution. The Stochastic oscillator is trending downwards from the overbought zone, indicating the potential for continued downward pressure in the near term. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined from elevated levels and has room to fall before reaching oversold conditions.

Looking ahead, if the current pullback finds support at any of the aforementioned Fibonacci levels, the GBP/USD pair could resume its bullish trend towards its recent highs and potentially target the 1.3600 area. Conversely, a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the ascending trendline could signal a deeper correction towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2707.

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Created on April 24, 2025

• For two consecutive trading sessions, the USD/JPY currency pair has rebounded from its recent strong losses, which reached the support level of 139.88, the pair’s lowest in seven months.
• However, the upward rebound gains did not exceed the resistance level of 143.57 before the USD/JPY price stabilized around the 143.10 level at the beginning of today’s Thursday trading session.
• Currently, the upward rebound gains for the currency pair increased amid improved investor sentiment due to Trump abandoning the idea of dismissing US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China.

US Dollar Performance Witnesses Positive Development

According to forex market trading, the US dollar has rebounded from its lowest levels in three years amid easing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and growing hopes for a de-escalation of the trade war. Recently, Trump stated that he has no intention of dismissing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, allaying concerns about political interference in US monetary policy. Also, he indicated a softer stance toward China, saying he plans to be “very gentle” in any trade negotiations.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and stressed the need for both sides to de-escalate soon.

Despite the recent recovery, the US dollar remains down about 9% since the beginning of 2025 and has lost much of its safe-haven appeal in recent weeks amid ongoing trade tensions, recession risks, and political pressure on the US Federal Reserve, which has prompted many investors to move away from US assets.

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Trading Tips:

The USD/JPY trend remains bearish, and market tensions will ultimately support the Japanese yen.

US Stock Prices Rise Amid Easing Concerns:

During yesterday’s trading and across stock trading platforms, US stock market indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 index rising by 1.7%, the Nasdaq index by 2.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 419 points, as the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China, and Trump’s confirmation that he would not dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, boosted sentiment.

However, the three US stock indices retreated from their highs, as investors questioned whether a trade resolution was imminent. US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that Trump had not proposed a unilateral reduction in tariffs and that talks with China had not yet begun, dampening early optimism. Clearly, this statement followed the President’s remarks suggesting that tariffs might not remain at the current 145% level.

Meanwhile, Trump’s change of tone toward Powell helped ease concerns about the US central bank’s independence. Tesla shares rose 5.4% after CEO Elon Musk announced he would significantly reduce his involvement with the government to focus on leading his companies. Boeing shares also rose 6.1%, supported by improved aircraft deliveries.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

According to the performance on the daily chart, the overall trend for the USD/JPY currency pair remains bearish despite its recent gains. A break of the overall bearish trend on this timeframe will not occur without the bulls successfully pushing towards the resistance levels of 145.00 and 147.80, respectively. Conversely, on the same timeframe, the support levels of 141.70 and 140.00 will remain a real threat to the upward movement and important areas for strong bear control. After its recent gains, the 14-day RSI indicator is moving away from the oversold barrier, while the MACD indicator remains stable near the oversold peak so far.

The USD/JPY pair will be affected by the extent of investors’ risk appetite, as well as the release of the US weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders figures.

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Created on April 24, 2025

• The Euro has been extraordinarily noisy during the trading session on Wednesday, as there is lot of questioning out there as to whether or not the US dollar is going to lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.
• I don’t believe this, and the only reason I bring this up is that about the time you hear these types of statements, you know that you’re close to the end of selling in the greenback.
• Now that doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to see the euro crumble, but what I think it does suggest is that we have been overbought, and we have seen a pretty significant pullback over the last 48 hours.

The 1.12 level underneath is a significant amount of support just waiting to happen as it had been major resistance, all things being equal. That’s an area where we will have to make a major inflection point. We will have to make a lot of decisions in that area.

A Range Forming?

Ultimately, I think we’ve got a situation where we are in the middle of a potential range between the 1.12 and 1.15 level. And therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the market just level out here. After all, the market was parabolic for quite some time, and now it has to have a little bit of digestion. Markets cannot go in one direction forever, no matter how hyped people get.

Furthermore, the interest rate differential is actually starting to spread out quite far, and sooner or later, people are going to want to collect that interest, especially in an environment where the economic and market situation around the world is so jittery. Why risk or test your luck in a market that is all over the place when you can get a whopping return on just parking cash into treasuries.

We are starting to see US treasuries catch a bid and that helps the US dollar as there had been so many pulled out of the country, dollars are starting, I suspect, to flow back into America. Does that mean the trend changes here? No, not necessarily, but it does mean that we got way ahead of ourselves.

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Platinum price continued forming weak sideways trading by its repeated stability near the resistance at $975.00, confirming its affection for the continuation of the main indicators until this moment, therefore, we will keep waiting for achieving the required breach to increase the chances of forming new bullish waves, to begin recording gains by its rally to $994.00 and $1005.00.

While the breach failure might assist to activate the bearish correctional track in the current trading, which forces the price to renew the pressure on the moving average 55 at $960.00, to attempt to target extra support near $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $962.00 and $974.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair provided several slow sideways range trading, due to its neediness to the negative momentum, but its main stability below the bearish channel’s resistance at 163.00 makes us keep the negative suggestion in the near and medium period trading.

Stochastic exit from the overbought level will increase the chances for gaining negative momentum, to reinforce the chances of targeting negative stations, which might begin at 161.30 and 160.30, while moving to the bullish track requires forming a strong bullish attack, to provide several positive closes above 163.25 level, then begin recording several gains by its rally to 164.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.35 and 162.65

Trend forecast: Bearish

April 23, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar FX Forecast: Sterling “Near-term Consolidation Around 1.33”

The US dollar secured net gains on Wednesday with support from a second successive surge in equities during the day.

The gains in equities and dollar were driven by another U-turn from President Trump as he stated that he was not looking to dismiss Fed Chair Powell. There was also an upbeat Administration assessment of trade prospects.

The latest US business confidence data also suggested more resilience than expected which provided an element of relief surrounding the US outlook.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate posted sharp losses to below 1.3250 before a recovery to near 1.3300.

According to Scotiabank; “We look for near-term consolidation around 1.33 and note the fact that GBPUSD’s most recent highs were not confirmed by the RSI, offering negative divergence in momentum. We look to near-term support between 1.3220 and 1.3250 and resistance between 1.3400 and 1.3420.”

MUFG is not expecting an extended recovery; “The scale of the US dollar move does point to some scope if these reports of de-escalation intensify that we could see this US dollar rebound extend further. Still, investors are likely to remain cautious and in many ways, damage is already done that likely means any US dollar recovery will be brief and relatively modest.”

According to Scotiabank; “Relief for the USD may be temporary as trade uncertainty will continue to shade US economic prospects.”

The US PMI manufacturing index improved to a 2-month high of 50.7 for April from 50.2 previously and above consensus forecasts of 49.0.

The services sector index did retreat to a 2-month low of 51.4 for the month from 54.4 and compared with expectations of 52.8.

The PMI composite index did decline to a 16-month low for the month as business confidence dipped again to the lowest level since July 2022.

Prices charged for goods and services rose at the sharpest rate for 13 months.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented; “The early flash PMI data for April point to a marked slowing of business activity growth at the start of the second quarter, accompanied by a slump in optimism about the outlook. At the same time, price pressures intensified, creating a headache for a central bank which is coming under increasing pressure to shore up a weakening economy just as inflation looks set to rise.

Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a June rate cut after no change in May.

Earlier, the UK PMI manufacturing index retreated further to a 32-month low of 44.0 for April from 44.9 previously and in line with consensus forecasts while the services-sector index retreated sharply to a 27-month low 48.9 from 52.5 and well below expectations of 51.5.

The composite output index dipped to a 29-month low in contraction territory.

Business confidence data dipped to the lowest level since October 2022 while employment declined further.

Costs increased at the fastest rate since February 2023 while output charges increased at the fastest rate for close to two years which will make Bank of England decision making notably difficult.

MUFG expressed reservations over the outlook; “The market may be reluctant to take kind of a strong view at this point in terms of how that’s likely to impact the UK economy and pound. But certainly, if you look at the (PMI) figures today it does show that business confidence did drop more sharply than expected in April, so that certainly increases the risk of the UK economy slowing down more in the second quarter.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

For what it’s worth, German Flash Manufacturing came in a little hotter than anticipated, as its Services number came in a little lower than anticipated. It was a slightly mixed to negative picture coming out of the European Union. Later in the day, we’ll get manufacturing and services PMI coming out of the US and that could change things. But as things stand right now, this looks like the market is just simply trying to find some type of equilibrium right around the 1.14 level.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar spiked against the Japanese yen to break above the 143 yen level but then gave back quite a bit of those gains. Again, I think the PMI numbers in the United States could be a big mover here over the next 24 hours, but if we can break back above this 143 yen level, I’d be willing to start thinking about buying this pair because I think it would show a real chance at recovery. If we break down below the 140 yen level, then things could get rather ugly. We could drop, as low as maybe even 130 yen, possibly even 128 yen. So, the 140 yen level is very important.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially fell during the session, but turned around to rally and we find ourselves right at the 200 day EMA again. This obviously is a technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, and it has offered a bit of technical resistance over the last couple of days. The question at this point is, can we pick up enough momentum to continue going higher? That would be signified by a move above the 0.65 level.

And in the interim, I think we are just simply killing time trying to figure out where the next move is because quite frankly, we got here way too quickly. We will have to sort out, is this a short covering rally, as it looks like on longer term charts, or is there something positive going on here? It’s a little bit early to jump on the bandwagon of the Australian dollar, but we are definitely at a major inflection point.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.