The GBPJPY pair failed to breach the barrier at 200.45, which forces it to provide new mixed trading by reaching 199.50, announcing its surrender to the sideways track that depends on forming extra support at 198.60 level, while the mentioned barrier represents the key of resuming the bullish attack.
Note that the continuation of the attempt of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances for some bullish waves, to attempt to press on the barrier, where surpassing it will make the price target new positive stations that begin at 200.95 and 201.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 198.80 and 200.45
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher on Monday as upbeat risk sentiment pressured the Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3437, up around 0.3% from the session open.
The US Dollar (USD) weakened at the start of the week despite a quiet calendar.
A broadly risk-on mood undercut safe-haven demand, leaving the Greenback on the defensive and posting losses against most peers through Monday’s European session.
The Pound (GBP) saw choppy trading in the absence of major UK data, with moves largely dictated by wider market appetite.
Sterling gained modestly against defensive currencies, while its risk-sensitive profile limited advances versus pro-cyclical rivals.
GBP/USD Forecasts: US Jobs Data in Focus
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Looking to Tuesday, the spotlight falls on the latest US JOLTs job openings report for August.
Forecasts point to a decline from 7.181 million to 7.1 million, signalling further cooling in the labour market.
If confirmed, concerns over job creation could weigh on the Dollar and give GBP/USD fresh momentum.
For Sterling, a quiet domestic calendar shifts attention to Bank of England speeches.
Any hawkish signals from policymakers could offer support and help the Pound hold firm as the week unfolds.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
Today’s Support Levels for EUR/USD: 1.1645 – 1.1590 – 1.1500.
Today’s Resistance Levels for EUR/USD: 1.1740 – 1.1800 – 1.1880.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580 with a target of 1.1760 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1780 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1880.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
During trading last week, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) fell to its lowest level in three weeks, testing the 1.1645 support level before attempting a bounce higher and stabilizing above the 1.1700 resistance ahead of the weekend close. The most prominent factor pressuring the Euro was the stronger-than-expected US economic data, which boosted the value of the US Dollar. Recently, market expectations for a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dropped, while analysts warned that a break of the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1660 could lead to further declines.
Nevertheless, Forex trading experts still believe there is a chance for the EUR/USD price to rise above 1.170 in the short term. According to licensed brokerage platforms, the EUR/USD exchange rate failed to rise last Thursday, dropping to its 3-week low below 1.1650 before regaining some ground to 1.1680 on Friday. The US economic data was stronger than anticipated, with no signs of an increase in unemployment, which boosted the value of the US Dollar against other major currencies.
Market expectations have recently shifted, with traders now seeing the probability of two US rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 dropping to 60%. Technically, while the drop in the exchange rate was sharp, there are no indications of price stabilization yet. As long as the Euro remains below the 1.1715 support, it is possible for the decline to continue. However, it is unlikely to reach the main support level at 1.1610 for now.
In the same vein of forecasts, SocGen Bank believes the US Dollar is at a key support level: “The Euro-Dollar pair is currently testing an ascending support line since August; the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1660 is an important support level. If it fails to hold this level, the decline may continue. In this case, the next support levels for the EUR/USD pair could be the late August lows at 1.1600/1.1570 and 1.1500.”
However, ING Bank doubts the US Dollar’s ability to maintain its recent gains, stating: “We see it as likely that the Dollar will retreat from its current levels, and we expect it to drop below 1.170 in the near days.” The bank pointed to the potential for a further decline in the Euro’s value, explaining: “Alongside any other positive data from the US, another risk is that escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe could negatively impact currency markets. NATO recently stated it is ready to shoot down any Russian plane violating its airspace.”
Economic Data Still Supports the Dollar
MUFG Bank noted that US economic data was stronger than expected, saying: “It’s been a long time since we saw such positive and Dollar-supportive US economic data, but the recently released data was surprisingly positive. With markets recently leaning toward anticipating weak US economic data, we saw a notable Dollar rebound at a time when currency and bond markets are experiencing high volatility.”
The bank believes that the US labor market will be a decisive factor in determining the course of developments in the coming days, as the details of the US jobs report will be announced at the end of the week, which will, in turn, affect the future policies of the US Federal Reserve. According to currency experts’ forecasts, if US labor market data shows better-than-expected results this week, it will reinforce Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s stance on not cutting rates and will push the US central bank to consider the risks of rising inflation.
Future Price of the Euro in the Coming Days
According to reliable trading platforms, the Euro fell below $1.17 at the end of September, erasing the gains it made at the beginning of the month. It is expected to conclude the month near its current level, as traders balance monetary policy expectations and escalating trade tensions. The market currently still anticipates the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by an additional 0.25% twice this year, even though recent data showed the strength of the US economy and labor market.
In Europe, forecasts suggest the European Central Bank’s (ECB) easing cycle is nearing its end, after the bank kept interest rates unchanged in its two consecutive meetings in September. Economic indicators continue to show a mixed picture, with Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the services sector seeing some improvement, while the recession in the manufacturing sector worsens.
On the trade front, US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on registered or patented pharmaceutical products, and a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks. Meanwhile, reports indicated that the European Commission is preparing to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Chinese steel imports.
Trading Advice:
We advise you to wait for the market reaction to the US employment report to clarify the picture regarding the best trading opportunities for the Euro-Dollar, whether to buy or sell.
The British Pound stayed pinned near two-month lows against the Euro at 1.1440, with the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) weighed by weak UK data, geopolitical jitters and fragile risk sentiment.
Analysts warn Sterling could suffer more than the euro if Russia tensions escalate, while fresh German IFO weakness underlines Europe’s sluggish growth backdrop.
Danske Bank still sees the pair sliding towards 1.1240 on a 12-month view.
GBP/EUR Forecasts: Near 2-Month Lows
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has remained on the defensive and trading just above 1.1440, close to 2-month lows recorded on Tuesday.
The Pound found it very difficult to make headway in global markets even with tailwinds for global equity markets which suggests underlying vulnerability while the Euro has drifted lower.
The FTSE 100 index posted significant losses on Wednesday following a dip on Wall Street and the Pound tends to be sensitive to risk conditions.
Save on Your GBP/EUR Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
If geo-political tensions with Russia intensify, the Euro and Pound would both be at risk, although Sterling would potentially be hit harder.
A drop below the July low near 1.1420 would risk further losses.
Danske Bank expects gradual GBP/EUR losses to 1.1240 on a 12-month view, but added; “The key risk to seeing EUR/GBP trade substantially higher than our forecast is a sharp sell-off in global risk and/or renewed focus on the UK’s fragile fiscal position.”
In rhetoric on Tuesday, President Trump shifted his position on Ukraine and suggested that it could regain all the territory that has been lost. He also called for a more aggressive NATO stance against Russia which could increase tensions within Europe.
ING commented; “If anything, there are downside risks for the euro and even more for higher-beta European currencies as Trump told EU allies to shoot down Russian planes violating NATO airspace.”
Rabobank noted the stronger tone in the latest NATO statements.
It added; “So while can only speculate about the next steps taken by NATO or Europe, opinions appear to be shifting and there can be little doubt that whatever comes next is going to be even more costly for Europe in many respects.”
The German IFO business confidence index dipped to 87.7 for September from a revised 88.9 previously and below consensus forecasts of 89.3.
The current assessment and expectations components both declined on the week.
According to the IFO; “Companies were less satisfied with current business, while their expectations clouded noticeably. Prospects for an economic recovery have suffered a setback.”
The German PMI services-sector index strengthened according to the latest PMI data, but the IFO commented on the sector; “Expectations have grown markedly more pessimistic, and the indicator fell to its lowest level since February.”
Rabobank noted that PMI business confidence data on Tuesday reported a decline in export orders which will be a headwind for the economy.
It added; “In summary, European growth will probably remain sluggish in the coming quarters.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
GBP/USD holds comfortably above 1.3400 in the European session on Monday.
The renewed US Dollar weakness helps the pair stretch higher.
Market participant will keep a close eye on political developments in the US.
GBP/USD builds on Friday’s gains and trades in positive territory comfortably above 1.3400 in the European morning on Monday. The pair’s technical outlook is yet to point to a bullish reversal in the short term.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.17%
-0.33%
-0.61%
-0.11%
-0.31%
-0.04%
-0.16%
EUR
0.17%
-0.17%
-0.59%
0.05%
-0.15%
0.12%
-0.00%
GBP
0.33%
0.17%
-0.34%
0.22%
-0.04%
0.29%
0.17%
JPY
0.61%
0.59%
0.34%
0.53%
0.34%
0.44%
0.50%
CAD
0.11%
-0.05%
-0.22%
-0.53%
-0.16%
0.07%
-0.05%
AUD
0.31%
0.15%
0.04%
-0.34%
0.16%
0.26%
0.14%
NZD
0.04%
-0.12%
-0.29%
-0.44%
-0.07%
-0.26%
0.03%
CHF
0.16%
0.00%
-0.17%
-0.50%
0.05%
-0.14%
-0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand at the beginning of the week as the deadline for the US government shutdown looms.
United States (US) President Donald Trump will meet with top congressional leaders from both parties later in the day to finalize a funding deal and avoid a shutdown. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly demands the funding bill to contain an extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies to get his party’s support to pass the spending package.
In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, investors will scrutinize political developments in the US. In case markets grow optimistic about lawmakers funding the government beyond September 30, the USD could stage a rebound and cause GBP/USD to lose its traction. Conversely, the USD could stay under bearish pressure if no deal is reached moving towards the deadline.
On Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics will publish a revision to the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 50, while GBP/USD continues to trade below the 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Additionally, GBP/USD stays below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day SMAs, reflecting a lack of bullish momentum.
On the downside, the first support area could be spotted at 1.3410-1.3400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend, round level) ahead of 1.3330 (static level) and 1.3300 (round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.3470-1.3475 (50-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.3490-1.3500 (100-day SMA, 20-day SMA, 200-period SMA) and 1.3550 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
EUR/USD clings to small gains, trades above 1.1700 early Monday.
The US Dollar struggles to find demand on growing fears over a government shutdown.
The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bearish momentum.
EUR/USD holds its ground and clings to modest gains above 1.1700 early Monday after closing the previous week in negative territory.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.18%
-0.31%
-0.64%
-0.12%
-0.30%
-0.05%
-0.21%
EUR
0.18%
-0.14%
-0.61%
0.06%
-0.12%
0.12%
-0.04%
GBP
0.31%
0.14%
-0.38%
0.19%
-0.05%
0.25%
0.09%
JPY
0.64%
0.61%
0.38%
0.57%
0.38%
0.47%
0.48%
CAD
0.12%
-0.06%
-0.19%
-0.57%
-0.15%
0.06%
-0.10%
AUD
0.30%
0.12%
0.05%
-0.38%
0.15%
0.24%
0.07%
NZD
0.05%
-0.12%
-0.25%
-0.47%
-0.06%
-0.24%
-0.02%
CHF
0.21%
0.04%
-0.09%
-0.48%
0.10%
-0.07%
0.02%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) helps EUR/USD gain traction in the European morning as investors grow increasingly concerned over a government shutdown in the US.
United States (US) President Donald Trump will meet with top congressional leaders from both parties later in the day to enact the funding legislation to avoid a shutdown ahead of the Tuesday midnight deadline.
Market participants are also worried that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might not be able to release the September employment report, which will include key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate figures that the Federal Reserve (Fed) looks at while taking policy steps, this Friday if the government shutdowns midweek.
The US economic calendar will feature Pending Home Sales data for August later in the day, which is unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction. Investors will keep a close eye on the political developments in the US. In case Congress strikes a funding deal, the USD could stage a rebound and make it difficult for EUR/USD to extend its recovery.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart moves sideways near 50 in the European session, reflecting a neutral stance.
EUR/USD faces a pivot level at 1.1690-1.1700 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend). In case the pair continues to use this level as support, technical buyers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.1750 (100-period SMA), 1.1770 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1820 (static level) could be seen as next resistance levels.
If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.1690-1.1700, sellers could take action. On the downside, support levels could be spotted at 1.1640 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.1580 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Copper price began today’s trading with positive action, attempting to renew the pressure on the barrier at $4.7500, to find an exit for resuming the main bullish attack, to expect targeting $4.9500 level reaching the main target at $5.3100.
Note that the continuation of forming extra support by the moving average 55 stability near $4.3700, besides stochastic attempt to provide bullish momentum, these factors support the bullish suggestion, to keep waiting for achieving the suggested targets.
The expected trading range for today is $4.5500 and $4.9500
The EURJPY pair didn’t succeed in reaching the extra positive stations, affected by its neediness to the positive momentum, which forces it to settle below the barrier at 175.20, forming correctional waves by its stability near 174.65.
We expect providing mixed trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, but it didn’t affect the main bullish trend, due to the stability of the trading within the bullish channel levels, by forming 173.45 level as an important extra support, therefore, we recommend waiting for breaching the barrier, to open the way for reaching extra positive stations, that are located near 176.00 reaching 176.95.
The expected trading range for today is between 174.20 and 175.20
The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate slipped to three-week lows on Thursday, with EUR/USD testing support near 1.1650 after stronger-than-expected US data boosted the greenback.
Markets scaled back Fed cut bets, while analysts warned that a break of the 50-day moving average at 1.1660 could open the door to deeper losses.
ING, however, still sees scope for EUR/USD to rebound above 1.170 in the short term.
EUR/USD Forecasts: Slides to 3-Week Lows
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was unable to make headway on Thursday and dipped to 3-week lows just below 1.1650 before a tentative recovery to 1.1680 on Friday.
The US data releases on Thursday were stronger than expected with no sign of an increase in layoffs which helped underpin the dollar.
There was a shift in market pricing with traders considering that the chances of two further Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025 had dipped towards 60%.
Save on Your EUR/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
According to UoB; “While the decline is deeply oversold, there is no sign of stabilisation just yet. Today, as long as EUR holds below 1.1715, there is a chance for EUR to continue to decline. That said, the major support at 1.1610 is likely out of reach for now.”
SocGen considers that the dollar is around key support; “The pair is currently testing an ascending trend line established since August; the 50-day moving average near 1.1660 is a crucial support.”
It added; “Should it fail to defend the moving average near 1.1660, the down move may extend. In such a scenario, the next objectives could be located at the late August lows of 1.1600/1.1570 and 1.1500.”
ING is doubtful that the dollar can hold recent gains; “our baseline view is for the dollar to give back some gains, and we think a return above 1.170 can happen as early as today.”
It did note potential further Euro setbacks; “One risk, aside from any more US data strength, is that markets take rising geopolitical tension in Europe more seriously. NATO said yesterday that it is ready to shoot down any Russian planes violating its airspace.”
MUFG noted that the US data was stronger than expected; “It’s been some time since US data has surprised to the upside and driven both yields and the US dollar higher but the data yesterday and on Wednesday certainly did surprise to the upside and given positioning has been so skewed of late toward weakening economic data in the US we have seen a notable rebound for the dollar just when volatility is hitting new lows in FX and bonds.”
The bank expects that the labour market will be crucial for developments.
MUFG added; “If the labour market data was to prove better than expected next week, it would certainly undermine the primary argument put forward by Fed Chair Powell to cut rates further and force the Fed to give more weight to the upside inflation risks.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
USD/JPY Correlation with Fed Policy Tightens as Pair Holds 149.00–150.00
The USD/JPY currency pair has remained glued to the trajectory of Federal Reserve rate expectations, with Fed funds futures correlations running at -0.94 through September 2026. That means every adjustment in rate cut bets translates almost directly into yen movement. After reclaiming the 200-day moving average and powering above 149.00 this past week, the pair is testing the critical 150.00 threshold, with resistance stacked at 151.00 and 152.40. A decisive break of 150.90, the July peak, would mark a full resumption of the uptrend from the August low at 139.87, with Fibonacci alignment at 151.22 signaling the next key marker.
Payrolls Data Looms as Make-or-Break Catalyst for USD/JPY
The September nonfarm payrolls report due Friday is the clear pivot point for USD/JPY price action. Recent economic surprises, including stronger U.S. personal income and spending, have tilted to the upside, but traders remain cautious about a downside shock. A strong payrolls print coupled with a firm unemployment rate would scale back cut expectations and fuel another surge through 151.00. Conversely, a weak reading would revive deeper cut pricing and likely drag the pair back to 148.80 support. Before payrolls, ADP jobs, JOLTs, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, and weekly claims all have the power to stir volatility, though none are likely to overshadow the official payroll data.
Japanese Fundamentals Take a Back Seat as Tokyo CPI Softens
While U.S. macro remains the driver, Japan’s domestic story continues to provide context. Tokyo CPI undershot expectations, hinting that inflationary pressure may be easing. That gives the Bank of Japan more room to watch data before pressing ahead with hikes, even as two policy board members dissented in favor of tightening at the last meeting. The release of the BoJ’s summary of opinions could add intrigue, but unless there is clear hawkish deviation, USD/JPY will stay locked to U.S. labor data and Treasury yields.
Technical Levels Signal Bulls in Control but Risks of Pullback Persist
Technically, USD/JPY’s reclaim of the 200DMA has reset the bullish outlook, but caution lingers given past failures above this level. RSI (14) remains in overbought territory, while MACD momentum continues to slope upward. Immediate support is reinforced at 149.00, followed by a cluster near 148.80. On the upside, a daily close beyond 150.90 would open 151.22 before setting the stage for 152.40. If buyers fail to sustain momentum, pullbacks could target 148.00 or deeper retracements toward 145.50, the September low.
Big Picture: USD/JPY Holds Medium-Term Uptrend Above 139.00
From a structural perspective, USD/JPY’s multi-year trend from the 2021 low at 102.58 remains intact. The correction from last year’s 161.94 high may have already bottomed at 139.87, with the breakout through 149.12 reinforcing that interpretation. As long as 139.00–139.20 holds, the bullish bias for a retest of 161.94 is preserved. A failure back below 139.00 would suggest the corrective wave is not yet complete, but that scenario looks less likely given current U.S. economic resilience.
