– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Falls as Traders Awaited Powell’s Speech

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slumped on Tuesday, as the release of the UK’s latest labour market figures weighed on Sterling sentiment.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3268, down roughly 0.5% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The Pound (GBP) came under fresh pressure against most of its peers on Tuesday following the release of the UK’s latest labour market figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that unemployment in August rose unexpectedly from 4.7% to 4.8%, marking its highest level since 2021.

Meanwhile, regular wage growth also underperformed, slipping to 4.7% from 4.8% in the same time period.

The weaker-than-expected data dented Sterling sentiment during Tuesday’s European session, fuelling speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could still consider an interest rate cut this year.

The US Dollar (USD) held steady for the majority of Tuesday’s European session, managing to regain some ground against several of its peers.

Despite renewed trade tensions between the US and China, the ‘Greenback’ was supported by a slightly cautious market mood and its traditional safe-haven appeal.

Investors, however, remained hesitant to take aggressive positions on USD ahead of a scheduled speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.

Should Powell adopt a hawkish tone, USD exchange rates could rise during the latter part of Tuesday’s European trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast: Central Bank Speeches to Dictate Midweek Movement

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be influenced by a series of central bank speeches, with both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in focus amid a quiet UK and US data calendar.

In the UK, BoE officials Dave Ramsden and Sarah Breeden are scheduled to speak, and any remarks that challenge current expectations for interest rate cuts this year could lend Sterling some support.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, a number of Federal Reserve speeches are also expected to shape mid-week trading.

Hawkish commentary from Fed officials could bolster the US Dollar, while dovish signals may weigh on the ‘Greenback’, leaving USD exchange rates vulnerable.

As a result, GBP/USD could experience heightened volatility on Wednesday, responding primarily to central bank sentiment and market appetite for risk, in the absence of major economic releases.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The EURJPY pair continued providing temporary trading, affected by the stability of the barrier at 177.05 to reach 175.95 again, to announce delaying the bullish attack in the current period.

Stochastic reach below 50 level might force the price to provide more of the corrective trading, to test the extra support at 175.20 to confirm monitoring the price behavior, as monitoring the price behavior is important due to the importance of the support by detecting the expected targets in the near and medium period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 175.20 and 176.50

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

Created on October 14, 2025

• You can see that we have gapped higher to kick off the trading week on Monday as you would expect now that the bat between the Americans and the Chinese might be over. We just don’t know. We’ve actually seen a calming of tensions from both sides.
• So that’s a good sign. I think basically, what you have here is a continuation of what we’ve seen. And now we’re starting to focus on Japan again. That of course is because light monetary policy, loose monetary policy is probably coming. And that means yen printing in colloquial terms, we had broken above the 151 yen level an area that I had talked about for a while, and we’ve turned around to show signs of life, all things being equal.

I am Still Very Bullish Long-Term

This is a market that I think continues to go much higher. But what I’m worried about is the massive stop loss you may have to take into account in order to protect against this gap getting filled because gaps typically get filled eventually. That being said, we have gapped basically 130. Well, we gapped to open up right around 70 pips and then we’re up about 130 at this point.

So, all things being equal, this is a market that I think remains by on the dips, but I was hoping to get a little bit more of a dip than we got on Friday, to be honest with you. Longer term, we go higher. I just don’t see how that changes. I’ve been saying that for a while from somewhere around here in July, I think, and I’ve been buying dips and collecting swap. The gap, of course, is a completely different animal that you have to deal with, but it’s still the same strategy. You just look for cheaper dollars if you get that opportunity.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 14, 2025

Tuesday, October 14, 2025: Analysis of euro price against the dollar EUR/USD

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• General Trend: Bearish.
• Today’s Support Points for EUR/USD: 1.1540 – 1.1460 – 1.1380.
• Today’s Resistance Points for EUR/USD: 1.1620 – 1.1700 – 1.1820.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EURUSD from the support level of 1.1490, target 1.1730, and stop loss 1.1400.
• Sell EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1670, target 1.1500, and stop loss 1.1730.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Amid heightened interest from forex traders in the future of US Federal Reserve policies and the ongoing dispute between Trump and bank officials over pressure to continue cutting interest rates, the main focus during today’s trading session will be on the reaction to remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 19:30 Egypt time. Prior to that, during the European session, the Euro’s price will be influenced by the release of the German ZEW Indicator, which measures confidence in the Eurozone’s largest economy, at 12:00 Egypt time.

Previously, according to reliable trading platforms, the euro-dollar price is stabilizing around the 1.1555 support level, the lowest level for the currency pair in more than two months.

EUR/USD Forecast Amid Renewed US/China Trade Conflict

According to the insights of forex trading experts, the Euro is not benefiting from the renewed trade tensions between China and the United States. At the end of last week, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose on news that US President Donald Trump would respond to new Chinese export controls by imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, set to take effect in November.

Consequently, the market responded by reviewing the 2025 trade rules and adhering to instructions to buy the euro as concerns about the US economy increased. Furthemore, the euro-dollar rose to resistance at 1.1630 following Trump’s unexpected move. Also, bulls hoped for continued price action at the start of the new week until the exchange rate’s technical outlook reversed from negative to positive in the near term.

Unfortunately for these bulls, the Euro was unable to capitalize on its sudden rise on Friday, putting it in a position that warns of further weakness in the coming days and weeks.

Over the weekend, both the United States and China indicated a willingness for dialogue, suggesting some back-channel communications are underway. We see these recent developments as strengthening both sides’ positions ahead of the expected meeting between Trump and Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea, held from October 27 to November 1. If the market agrees, stocks and the US dollar could recover from Friday’s weakness, which would keep the Euro under pressure in the near term.

Technically, the daily chart of the EUR/USD pair shows that the current level in the spot market is below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is consistent with a near-term downtrend. Our base case is that the EUR/USD pair may see some stability in the coming days, benefiting from Friday’s decline and increased attention on trade-related headlines. However, when the pair returns to its current trajectory, we will look for further declines, as this is consistent with its pre-stabilization trajectory. Therefore, a return to 1.1550, and then lower, is likely over the next two weeks. Technically, the single currency is at risk of a further decline to the 1.14 support level.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp trader, the EUR/USD price will remain in its bearish range until technical indicators reach strong oversold levels or a sudden technical correction occurs amid a change in the current factors affecting the EUR/USD decline.

Away from trade headlines, we finally have an opportunity to look at some real US economic data, something that has been absent from the forex market since the partial US government shutdown began earlier this month. The US Department of Labor has reportedly recalled some of its staff to prepare for the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for October 15. In this context, US inflation is expected to rise by 0.4% month-on-month, with the annual rate increasing to 3.1% from 1.9%. Any reading below this rate will lead to a weaker US dollar, as it would push markets to increase their expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Ultimitaly, the market expects more US interest rate cuts in the coming months, but its conviction is wavering as the economy continues to perform with strong confidence, reducing the demand for rate cuts.

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• The GBP/USD forecast remains feeble after downbeat UK employment data.
• The US dollar remains firm amid easing US-China trade worries.
• All eyes are now on key central bank speeches that could provide clues on the easing cycle.

The GBP/USD price weakened on Tuesday, falling below the 1.3300 mark amid softer-than-expected UK labor market data. It reinforced the odds of additional rate cuts by the Bank of England.

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According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK ILO unemployment rate surged to 4.8%, up from the previous 4.7%, slightly above the market forecast. The employment grew by 91k, well below the previous 232k reading, suggesting a slowdown in hiring momentum. The jobless claims soared to 25k, well above the 10k forecast. Wage growth also signaled weakness as average earnings, including bonuses, slowed to 4.7%. However, excluding bonuses, the average earnings briefly rose to 5%, above the BoE’s comfort zone.

The data reinforced the perception that the UK economy is weakening, prompting investors to bet on the probability of further easing. The markets now anticipate a 70% chance of a 25 bps rate cut before year-end, as policymakers would aim to support household consumption amid rising labor market weakness.

BoE’s MPC member, Megan Greene, noted, “Monetary policy remains restrictive, but further rate cuts could be warranted if inflation continues to drift lower to 2% target.” However, she warned against aggressive rate cuts, given uncertainty around persisting inflation and wage dynamics.

On the other hand, the US dollar index found a firm footing near mid-99.00, supported by easing US-China trade tension and rising expectations that the Fed would proceed with rate cuts more cautiously.

GBP/USD Key Events Ahead

Investors are looking forward to two major speeches:

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary
• BoE Chair Andrew Bailey’s speech

Both events remain the key to determining the future policy path and probable divergence to forecast the next leg for the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast: 1.3200 at Sight

After breaking the demand zone and recent swing low at 1.3260, the GBP/USD price is looking to test the 1.3200, which is a psychological support. The key MAs on the 4-hour chart reveal a strong bearish trend, while the RSI has plunged below 40.0, showing further room for losses.

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The key support for the pair emerges at 1.3200 ahead of 1.3125 and then 1.3000. On the upside, the immediate resistance lies at 1.3300, which can be tested if the price bounces and closes the candle above the swing low of 1.3260. The next resistance appears at 1.3335 ahead of 1.3360.

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The EURJPY pair resumed the bearish corrective attack in Friday’s trading, hitting some of the previously suggested targets, to form quick positive rebound to settle near 176.50, keeping the main bullish scenario that depends on the stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appears in the above image.

Note that the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators that might force the price to provide more of the sideways trading, to keep waiting for breaching 177.05 to confirm its readiness to form new bullish attack by targeting the top at 177.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 175.90 and 177.05

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: Split Between 1.11 and 1.2050 Outlook

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate spent another week trapped below 1.15 as UK fiscal concerns offset Euro weakness tied to France’s deepening political impasse.

Foreign exchange strategists warn that, with Prime Minister Lecornu reappointed and budget gridlock unresolved, both currencies are likely to face lingering downside pressure.

GBP/EUR Forecasts: Groundhog Day for France

SocGen forecasts that the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will weaken to 1.11 by the third quarter of 2026 on Pound vulnerability.

Credit Agricole, however, is backing gains to 1.2050 by the end of next year as the French situation contributes to Euro losses.

GBP/EUR briefly hit 3-week highs around 1.1550 during the week on Euro concerns before a dip back below 1.15 amid a lack of confidence in underlying UK fundamentals with the Pound unable to benefit from a record high for the FTSE 100 index.

French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned on Monday, but after a week of intense political intrigue, President Macron renominated him on Friday.

There is no evidence that Lecornu can fare better this time around and faces major difficulties in passing the budget with the on-going risk that deadlock will eventually lead to fresh elections.

SocGen does note the potential for short-term Euro weakness; “The French political situation is clearly another source of concern, with policy paralysis potentially dampening growth expectations. The bond market has to digest supply, and higher French yields create headlines. Even if yield differentials are far below those we saw for peripheral bonds in 2010-2015, this all weighs on the euro.”

Credit Agricole also notes near-term Euro vulnerability; “The economic outlook of the Eurozone’s largest economy has been attracting considerable attention. In all, we think that economic uncertainty and lingering political risks in France could keep the EUR on the defensive in the very near term.”

SocGen expects weak UK growth and that Bank of England will eventually relent; “The stickiness of inflation relative to the euro zone and the US is limiting the room for manoeuvre by the BoE so decreasing the level of policy restriction to boost growth must wait. SG economics postponed the next rate cut from November to February but maintain the terminal forecast of 3.0%.”

JP Morgan noted cracks in the UK economic outlook; “With last week’s UK PMI suggesting political uncertainty is starting to creep back into the UK data, this emphasizes the negative growth-fiscal feedback loop where weaker UK growth worsens the fiscal hole which holds long-end gilt yields higher than they otherwise would be and that triggers the stagflationary reaction function in the currency.”

HSBC expects further fiscal fears; “In the UK, it seems more like mission impossible – particularly for fiscal policy. We estimate the UK Chancellor may need to find around GBP30bn of additional consolidation at the 26 November Budget – a big ‘black hole’ to fill.”

It added; “Tax rises and spending cuts will not go down well with voters and her own party. But a non-credible plan – such as assuming unrealistic tax rises and spending cuts in four or five years’ time – or even a small tweak to the fiscal targets to allow more borrowing, could alarm the bond market.”

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts