GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling stabilizes ahead of US data

GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades at around 1.3550 after gaining about 0.3% on Thursday. Although the technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup in bearish momentum, the pair could find it difficult to hold its ground in case safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets heading into the weekend.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened against its rivals and allowed GBP/USD to stretch higher following the mixed macroeconomic data releases on Thursday. Read more…

GBP/USD bullish bias intact after CPI

Today’s US CPI release came in line with market forecasts, confirming that inflation is easing but without any major surprises. For the dollar, this result maintains the broader narrative of a softening macro backdrop—where growth momentum is cooling and rate cut expectations remain anchored.

From the UK side, inflation is still proving “sticky,” which has slowed the Bank of England’s path to easing compared to the Fed. This divergence continues to favor the pound over the dollar in the medium term. Read more…

USD/JPY Holds Near 148.00 as CPI and Fed Policy Shape Market Conviction

Macro Drivers Push USD/JPY Volatility Higher

The USD/JPY pair advanced to nearly 148.00 after U.S. inflation data and renewed geopolitical tensions kept the dollar in demand. The August CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, up from July’s 2.7%, while the core CPI printed at 3.1%, in line with forecasts. Monthly gains of 0.3% for both headline and core confirm that inflation remains sticky. This data hit just a week before the FOMC decision, where futures markets price in an 88% chance of a 25 bps cut and an 8% probability of a 50 bps cut, bringing rates to the 3.75–4.00% range. At the same time, Japan’s own data offered mixed cues: the PPI rose 2.7% in August, GDP for Q2 was revised higher to 2.2% annualized, and household spending showed its first real wage increase in seven months. These numbers strengthened the case for the Bank of Japan to hike by year-end, keeping yen demand alive despite short-term weakness.

Geopolitical Risk Keeps Dollar Supported

Geopolitics remain a crucial tailwind for the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Reports of Russian drones entering Polish airspace during the Ukraine conflict added urgency to risk hedging, pushing the USD Index (DXY) back toward 98.00. While the yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven, political uncertainty following Ishiba’s resignation created hesitation. A new prime minister could shift Japan’s monetary stance abruptly, leaving markets reluctant to fully price in aggressive BoJ tightening. This divergence has kept the USD/JPY pair well bid above 147.00 despite fragile U.S. macro fundamentals.

Technical Landscape Defines the Battle Zone

Technically, USD/JPY reclaimed ground after a failed breakdown attempt near 146.50. Bulls forced the pair above the 30-day SMA, and momentum indicators turned supportive. The RSI trades above 50, showing controlled bullish energy, while the MACD buy signal holds. Resistance sits at 147.94–148.13, followed by the 200-day SMA near 148.75 and the critical 149.00–149.15 range, where sellers previously reloaded. A sustained break above 149.15 could expose the psychological 150.00 handle, shifting the market toward a stronger dollar bias. On the downside, initial support lies at 147.00, with deeper levels at 146.30–146.20 and 145.35, before the pivotal 145.00 round figure. Failure to defend 146.20 would likely tilt sentiment bearish and open the door toward 144.50.

Fed-BoJ Policy Divergence Shapes USD/JPY Trajectory

The divergence between the Fed and the BoJ defines the longer-term bias for USD/JPY. The Fed is widely expected to cut three times before year-end, with cumulative easing priced near 68 bps, while Japan edges closer to its first meaningful hike in decades. The Reuters Tankan poll revealed Japanese manufacturing confidence at a three-year high, signaling resilience that could embolden BoJ hawks. Yet, as long as U.S. policy maintains higher real yields compared to Japan, capital flow dynamics favor the dollar. Investors remain reluctant to aggressively sell USD/JPY until the Fed confirms the pace of cuts. If September delivers a dovish pivot alongside firm BoJ guidance, USD/JPY could break its range decisively lower. For now, range-trading dominates between 146.95 and 148.50, with breakout potential tied directly to the CPI-Fed-BoJ sequence of events.

Trading Strategy and Rating

At current levels around 147.90–148.00, USD/JPY trades in a delicate balance between short-term bullish momentum and medium-term downside risk. A confirmed break above 149.00 favors bullish extension toward 150.00, while any sustained drop under 146.20 flips momentum to bearish. Given the CPI print, Fed cut expectations, and looming BoJ tightening, the pair is best rated a Hold, with tactical opportunities to Buy dips above 146.90 and Sell rallies against 149.00 resistance until a definitive macro trigger emerges.

That’s TradingNEWS

The EURJPY pair succeeded in facing stochastic negativity by its stability above 172.00 level yesterday, to form some of the bullish waves to approach from the barrier at 173.50, forming an obstacle against the attempts of resuming the bullish attack.

To confirm the attempts of resuming the bullish attack, we recommend waiting for breaching the barrier and providing positive close above it, to increase the chances for recording extra gains that might extend to 174.25 reaching 1.809%Fibonacci extension level at 175.20, while the price failure to breach this level will force it to provide more of the sideways trading, and there is a new chance to decline towards 171.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.60 and 174.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

• GBP/USD moves sideways near 1.3550 in the European session on Friday.
• The US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index will be the last data release of the week.
• The cautious market stance could limit the pair’s upside heading into the weekend.

GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades at around 1.3550 after gaining about 0.3% on Thursday. Although the technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup in bearish momentum, the pair could find it difficult to hold its ground in case safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets heading into the weekend.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened against its rivals and allowed GBP/USD to stretch higher following the mixed macroeconomic data releases on Thursday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% on a yearly basis in August. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% on a monthly basis. Both of these figures came in line with analysts’ estimates.

Other data from the US showed that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 263,000 in the week ending September 6 from 236,000 in the previous week. This data revived fears over worsening conditions in the US labor market and weighed on the USD.

Later in the American session, the University of Michigan (UoM) will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for September. Rather than the headline number, markets could react to the 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations component of the survey. A noticeable increase in this data could be supportive for the USD and cause GBP/USD to edge lower with the immediate reaction.

Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed in the European session. A bearish opening in Wall Street could help the USD outperform its rivals and hurt GBP/USD. Conversely, an improving market mood is likely to open the door for a recovery in the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds above 50 and GBP/USD trades above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting sellers’ hesitancy.

On the downside, the first support level could be spotted at 1.3500 (static level, round level) ahead of 1.3470-1.3460 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3450 (200-period SMA). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3590-1.3600 (static level, round level) and 1.3640 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).

• EUR/USD declines toward 1.1700 after closing in positive territory on Thursday.
• Comments from ECB policymakers highlight a difference of opinion on inflation outlook.
• The technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum in the short term.

EUR/USD struggles to hold its ground and declines toward 1.1700 on Friday after posting modest gains on Thursday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum as markets assess comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers.

The ECB left key rates unchanged after the September policy meeting, as widely anticipated. In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Lagarde noted that the disinflationary process is over and noted that a stronger Euro could bring inflation down more than expected.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure on Thursday and helped EUR/USD push higher after the data from the US showed that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.9% in August as expected, while the weekly Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 263,000 in the week ending September 6 from 236,000 in the previous week.

Early Friday, ECB officials’ mixed tone make it difficult for the Euro to preserve its strength.

ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus noted that inflation has stabilized at the targeted level but added that risks remain high. Similarly, Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides argued that there is currently no need for the ECB to lower interest rates further to deliver stable inflation.

On the other hand, policymaker Olli Rehn said that they must be mindful of downside risks to inflation stemming from cheaper energy prices and a stronger Euro, while Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva noted that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is slow in the eurozone, with competitiveness causing a problem.

In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index data for August. In case the 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations component of the survey rises further, the USD could hold its ground and cause EUR/USD to stretch lower heading into the weekend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declines toward 50 and EUR/USD trades near the 20-period Simple Moving Average, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, the 1.1680-1.1665 area, where the 20-day and the 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are located, aligns as a key support level before 1.1650-1.1640 (200-period SMA, lower limit of the ascending regression channel) and 1.1600 (static level, round level).

Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.1740 (static level), 1.1770 (static level) and 1.1790-1.1800 (upper limit of the ascending channel, static level).

Created on September 11, 2025

• The British pound has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Wednesday, but we still see the same massive barrier above causing headaches.
• That of course would be the area right around the 200 yen level.
• And really at this point, it seems like it’s going to be a bit of a brick wall.

Nonetheless, this is a market where you can trade through the prism of buying dips, at least at this point. It looks as if the 198 yen level underneath will continue to be support, especially now that the 50 day EMA sits there. If we can break above the 200 yen level on a daily close at least significantly, maybe by 50 pips or so, then I think that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign.

However, there are lot of concerns out there about risk appetite, and that ends up being the case this pair might suffer. A breakdown below the 198 yen level in that environment would be very bearish because when you zoom out on the chart from a longer term standpoint, you can see that the 200 yen level has been very important, going back roughly a year and a half. And if you really zoom out, then you can see that it’s been that way a couple of times in the past.

At the Moment, I Still Like Longs

All things being equal, this is a market that I do like buying though, because the interest rate differential does favor the British pound over the Japanese yen, pretty much anything will pay you more interest than the Japanese yen. And you do get paid to wait. But again, if we were to break down below the 198 yen level, then I think we’ve got a problem.

I think at the very least you’d be looking at a move down to the 200 day EMA, which is sitting right around the 195.35 level. Watch risk appetite. Watch stock markets around the world. They’ll give you a heads up as to how this pair may behave.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on September 11, 2025

• The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Wednesday as we got weaker than anticipated producers price index numbers, but really, it doesn’t change much. And we get CPI on Thursday.
• So, all things being equal, I think you’ve got a situation where we are still very much in a range.
• Which in this particular pair is not the worst scenario because there is an interest rate differential that favors the US dollar and therefore owning the dollar is not a bad idea.

You can see what happened on Tuesday where we plunged towards the 146.50 level only to turn around and bounce and form a nasty looking hammer. That hammer sitting on the 50 day EMA is basically where we’re hanging out now. I think this is a market that given half a chance will probably try to reach the 149 yen level or at least something close to it. And then repeat the process.

We do get a Federal Reserve interest rate decision statement and press conference next Thursday. And I think that might be pretty much what everybody’s waiting for. It’s not really a question as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates. I think we all pretty much assume that. But the question is, what will the outlook be from there? How aggressive are they going to be as far as cutting is concerned?

“Buy on the Dip?” Possibly.

In general, I think this is a buy on the dip market. Maybe it’s an interest collecting type of exercise and a longer term potential move. We’ll just have to wait and see. But really at this point, I’ve just been buying dips and selling it when it rallies a bit, letting it fall, buy it again, and repeating the process time and time again. It is worth noting that we saw this collapse back on August 1st after it was clear that the Federal Reserve was probably going to cut and then we haven’t done anything since then. So sometimes it’s all about what the market won’t do. In this case, it doesn’t look like it break down.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• GBP/USD trades in negative territory near 1.3500 on Thursday.
• The near-term technical outlook points to a bearish tilt in the short term.
• August inflation data from the US will be watched closely by market participants.

After closing the day virtually unchanged on Wednesday, GBP/USD stays on the back foot early Thursday and trades in negative territory at around 1.3500. The pair faces a critical support level at 1.3470 as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of August inflation data from the US.

Although the US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure with the immediate reaction to the weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August on Wednesday, the cautious market stance helped the currency find support and made it difficult for GBP/USD to gain traction.

During a meeting of government ministers on Wednesday, Britain’s finance minister Rachel Reeves said that the government was focused on going further to support the Bank of England (BoE) in reducing inflation, controlling public spending and driving growth, Reuters reported, citing a Downing Street spokesperson. This headline failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.

In the second half of the day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. On a monthly basis, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise by 0.3%.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool markets are currently fully pricing in a 25 basis-points (bps) Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. Although the inflation data is unlikely to change markets’ mind about next week’s policy decision, it could influence the USD’s valuation and the pair’s action in the immediate term.

A soft print in the monthly core CPI could hurt the USD and help GBP/USD turn north. On the flip side, an increase of 0.5%, or higher, in this data could weigh on the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declined below 50 and GBP/USD closed the last three 4-hour candles below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a bearish tilt in the short-term bias.

On the downside, 1.3470-1.3460 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as a key support level before 1.3445 (200-period SMA) and 1.3390-1.3400 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, static level). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3540 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.3590-1.3600 (static level, round level).

• The USD/JPY forecast shows continued strength in the dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• Market participants are anticipating the US CPI report.
• Data on Wednesday revealed softer-than-expected US wholesale inflation.

The USD/JPY forecast shows continued strength in the dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty. The greenback rose despite downbeat US wholesale inflation and ahead of the CPI report. Meanwhile, the yen remained fragile as traders worried about the outlook for Japan’s politics and monetary policy.

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The US dollar extended gains on Thursday as market participants eagerly awaited the US CPI report. Notably, the rally gained momentum after reports of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. The conflict between the two countries spilled into Poland, which had to shoot down Russian drones.  Consequently, there were worries of an escalation into other countries. As a result, traders sought safety in the dollar.

Meanwhile, data on Wednesday revealed softer-than-expected wholesale inflation, further supporting the view of a more dovish Fed.

“The market has positioned for the Fed to ease in September and potentially ease three times this year,” said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney. “The benign outcome from the PPI tells you pricing expectations look about right.”

Elsewhere, the yen remained subdued as Ishiba’s resignation caused uncertainty about the future. A new prime minister could assume a different stance regarding rate hikes, changing the outlook for monetary policy.

USD/JPY key events today

• US core CPI m/m
• US CPI m/m
• US CPI y/y
• US unemployment claims

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls take charge after false channel breakout

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50, suggesting stronger bullish momentum. This is a sign that bulls have taken charge and might send the price higher.

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USD/JPY has been trading in a shallow bullish channel. Recently, bears attempted to break out of this channel. However, they failed when the price could not break below the 146.50 key support level. As a result, it rose back into the channel and broke above the 30-SMA.

With bulls in the lead, the price might soon retest the channel resistance, near the 149.00 key level. A break above this level would signal a surge in bullish momentum, leading to a steeper bullish trend. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, USD/JPY will remain in its channel.

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Created on September 11, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Cautiously neutral.
• Support Levels: 1.1660 – 1.1600 – 1.1540
• Resistance Levels: 1.1750 – 1.1810 – 1.1880

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy: Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580, with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
• Sell: Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800, with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1880.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As anticipated, EUR/USD trading will remain cautious and within a narrow range until the market reacts to the release of U.S. inflation data, which is the most significant event for financial markets this week, especially after the setback from last week’s U.S. employment report. According to reliable trading platforms, attempts by EUR/USD to recover this week stalled at the 1.1779 resistance level. The pair then experienced profit-taking, which led to it settling around 1.1690 at the time of writing this analysis.

What Will the European Central Bank Deliver Today?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged for its second consecutive meeting today, Thursday. The announcement will be at 3:15 PM, Egypt time. Policymakers are maintaining a cautious “wait-and-see” approach given the stability of inflation, the resilience of the economy, and uncertainty surrounding trade policy. The main refinancing rate is set to remain at 2.15%, while the deposit facility rate will stay at 2%. Investors will pay close attention to the ECB’s post-meeting macroeconomic projections, which will provide updated forecasts for growth and inflation. The ECB had previously cut borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, with the rate cuts halting in July.

Overall, financial markets currently expect interest rates to remain stable until the end of the year, with a potential return to tightening in late 2026. At the same time, Eurozone growth is projected to reach 1.2% this year, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027, although political instability in countries like France and Spain could cast a shadow over these forecasts.

Will U.S. Inflation Rise Today?

The most important event for forex markets today is the release of U.S. inflation figures at 3:30 PM, Egypt time. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to accelerate to 2.9% in August 2025, which would be its highest level since January, following its stabilization at 2.7% in June and July. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3%, surpassing the 0.2% increase in July. This rise likely reflects retailers gradually passing on higher import tariffs, along with an increase in gasoline and supermarket prices.

Conversely, rents are expected to decline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to remain steady at 3.1%, the same level as in July and its peak in February, with the core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, in line with July’s pace.

Today’s EUR/USD Technical Outlook

As observed on the daily chart, EUR/USD trading remains neutral. The bullish outlook will strengthen if the bulls succeed in breaking the 1.1800 resistance level, which is a key waypoint for a move toward the psychological resistance of 1.2000. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near a reading of 52, closer to the neutral line, while the MACD lines also confirm the neutral performance. Conversely, over the same period, the 1.1580 support level will remain crucial for the bears to take control of the EUR/USD trend.

Trading Advice:

Traders are advised to wait for the market’s reaction to the U.S. inflation and ECB announcements to determine the most suitable trading direction for EUR/USD, whether to buy or sell.

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