Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced fluctuating intraday trading in continuous attempts to find an upward base that provides the necessary positive momentum for recovery. In these attempts, it relied on a strong support wall, namely its 50-period simple moving average, which contributed to the formation of positive candles indicating an imminent recovery. This scenario is further reinforced by the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index after it reached extremely oversold levels, along with the price trading along an ascending corrective trendline.

Our outlook remains positive for a rise in Bitcoin’s price in the upcoming intraday sessions, provided that the support level at $82,000 holds, so as to target the main resistance level at $90,000.

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar (NZD/USD) fell in its recent intraday trading, breaking out of an ascending price channel that had previously bounded its short-term trading, thereby signaling the continuation of that bearish corrective wave, especially with the negative pressure from the 50-period simple moving average and the influx of negative signals from the Relative Strength Index, after the pair succeeded in offloading its oversold condition.

Accordingly, our forecast indicates further declines in the NZD/USD price in its upcoming intraday trading, as long as the resistance at 0.5765 holds, targeting the key support level at 0.5690.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced fluctuating intraday trading in continuous attempts to find an upward base that provides the necessary positive momentum for recovery. In these attempts, it relied on a strong support wall, namely its 50-period simple moving average, which contributed to the formation of positive candles indicating an imminent recovery. This scenario is further reinforced by the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index after it reached extremely oversold levels, along with the price trading along an ascending corrective trendline.

Our outlook remains positive for a rise in Bitcoin’s price in the upcoming intraday sessions, provided that the support level at $82,000 holds, so as to target the main resistance level at $90,000.

March 23, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Weekly Forecast: Losses to 1.22 by End 2025?

Foreign exchange strategists at Scotiabank forecasts Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate losses to 1.22 at the end of 2025.

Danske Bank, however, now has a 12-month GBP/USD forecast of 1.31 from 1.23 previously.

GBP/USD hit 4-month highs just above 1.30 during the week, but failed to hold the gains and retreated to 1.2900 late in the week as the dollar recovered.

US economic and dollar developments are likely to dominate.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50%, in line with consensus forecasts.

The Fed cut its growth forecasts while projecting slightly higher inflation which increased stagflation fears and complicated the Fed’s task.

Scotiabank commented; “With inflation expectations sharply rising, we expect the Federal Reserve will remain on hold through the first half of the year even though growth is slowing more rapidly than expected so far this year. The Fed has little ability to respond to lower growth in the short run given what we still consider to be a challenging inflation outlook.”

Yields will tend to underpin the dollar, especially if risk appetite deteriorates.

Scotiabank notes domestic and global risks to growth which will spark volatility; “The direction of US economic and geopolitical policy is the greatest threat to the global economy.”

According to Standard Chartered; “The inflation risks are likely to put a floor under US bond yields and lead to a recovery in the oversold USD in the near term.”

The bank expects trade policies will be important with medium-term risks; “Implementation of wide-ranging US tariffs in April could sustain a near-term USD rally, although any hit to US growth is likely to eventually drag the USD lower.”

HSBC also expects trade policies will be crucial; “The key for the USD now is likely to rest more on how US trade policy evolves, rather than monetary policy. Our central case is that the USD will recover some lost ground over the long run, as US tariffs rise, the Fed does not cut more than what is already priced, and the rest of the world begins to look less exceptional again.”

According to Danske; “US recession fears have resurged with a softening of business sentiment, weakness in consumer confidence and weak retail sales weighing on growth prospects. These risks are further exacerbated by elevated uncertainty regarding tariff policy from President Trump.”

Danske has cut its dollar forecasts which has raised its GBP/USD profile. It added; “The shift in risk asset allocation away from the US appears structural, supporting our decision to raise the profile.”

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.50% and expressed a high degree of uncertainty over the outlook.

Rabobank commented; “Our baseline scenario has not changed since last summer: the Bank of England will likely cut rates quarterly, focusing on meetings with a Monetary Policy Report, aiming to end 2025 with a policy rate of 3.75%.”

Danske expects quarterly interest rate cuts to 3.75%, but added; “If the BoE opts for a more front-loaded cutting cycle, this would act as a headwind for GBP.”

Socgen sees structural dollar losses; “The US slowdown has resulted in a small fall in consensus growth forecasts, and those will ned to fall further to justify rate/FX pricing. It has a year-end forecast of 1.32 with 1.34 in the first quarter of 2026.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

• The GBP/USD forecast indicates a rebound in the dollar.

• Fed policymakers voted to keep interest rates unchanged.

• The Bank of England held rates on Thursday and shifted to a cautious tone.

The GBP/USD forecast indicates a rebound in the dollar amid a brief shift in focus from tariffs to monetary policy. Market participants expect both the Fed and the Bank of England to move forward cautiously due to uncertainty regarding US trade policies.

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The dollar found its feet late Wednesday after the FOMC policy meeting. Policymakers voted to keep interest rates unchanged. Moreover, the central bank’s forecasts remained unchanged, projecting only two rate cuts this year. Recent data had pushed up rate cut expectations, with traders pricing in three moves this year.

However, the Fed has to monitor both growth and inflation. While growth has slowed, inflation expectations have risen due to tariffs. At the same time, there is uncertainty about what Trump will do in the future. As a result, the Fed maintained that there was no rush to cut interest rates, giving life to the dollar. However, this rebound might only be brief. US recession fears will remain as long as tariffs cause trade wars. 

Similarly, the Bank of England held rates on Thursday and shifted to a cautious tone. Traders had expected seven votes to hold rates. However, eight policymakers voted to keep rates unchanged, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations. 

GBP/USD key events today

Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports today. Therefore, the price might consolidate.

GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears take charge after RSI divergence

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. Previously, the price was in an uptrend, trading above the 30-SMA. However, it paused near the pivotal 1.3000 level and started showing signs of weakness. The price stopped making big swings above the 30-SMA, indicating indecision. 

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At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating fading bullish momentum. As a result, bears overpowered bulls and pushed the price below the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI broke below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. 

GBP/USD can now retest the 1.2851 support level. This level coincides with the 0.382 Fib retracement, creating a solid resistance. A pause here would allow bulls to take back control. On the other hand, a break below this zone would confirm a new downtrend.

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March 2, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Weekly Forecast: Retreat to 1.19 on Aggressive BoE Cuts

Currency exchange strategists at Standard Chartered have a 12-month Pound Sterling forecast of 1.2265 amid Euro vulnerability.

ING expects the GBP/EUR exchange rate will hold near current levels in the short term before a retreat to 1.19 at the end of the year as the Bank of England cuts interest rates more aggressively.

GBP/EUR strengthened during the week amid expectations that near-term US trade policy on Europe would target the EU rather than the UK.

The breakdown in relations between the US and Ukraine following the major rift between Trump and Zelensky also increased European security fears and triggered further Euro losses with GBP/EUR hitting fresh 2-month highs near 1.2130.

There have been hopes that any Ukraine ceasefire deal would help lower gas prices, support the Euro-Zone economy and boost the Euro.

If, however, security fears escalate, there will be fresh economic fears with the risk of renewed Euro selling. Diplomatic efforts will be watched very closely in the near term.

Trump will speak to a joint session of Congress on March 4th when Trump has promised tariffs on Mexico and Canada will come into force. There is also the potential for an announcement on EU tariffs.

According to ING; “for the time being, the threat of tariffs and their impact on global growth is euro negative. And we expect investors to be adopting more defensive positions into next Tuesday’s event risk.”

Goldman Sachs noted two-sided risks; “Markets continue to price only a small tariff premium in the currency and we think their implementation will ultimately take the cross back lower. At the same time, if tariff policy changes are smaller than markets expect—perhaps in part due to pro-active EU policies—then the currency could rise further.”

Following President Trump’s meeting with Prime Minister Starmer there was increased confidence that the UK would avoid tariffs at this stage.

According to Rabobank; “At the very least, it kicks the can down the road and saves the UK from tariffs. For today, at least.”

The CDU/CSU came first in the German Federal election with the far-right AfD coming second. The main parties have refused to consider any coalition deal with the AfD.

The Euro rallied on hopes that a new coalition could boost government spending, but failed to hold the gains.

Standard Chartered commented; “It is likely the new government boosts infrastructure investments to support growth, but the debt brake is likely to ultimately act as a constraint.”

As far as monetary policy is concerned, there are strong expectations that the ECB will cut the deposit rate by a further 25 basis points this week to 2.50%.

Rabobank is more cautious; “as monetary policy becomes less restrictive, and the economic outlook again becomes more clouded, a growing group of rate setters may call for a pause soon.”

UBS sees evidence of a tentative Euro reversal; “Highly negative sentiment on Europe has started to improve. Once the ECB slows down or stops its easing around the middle of the year, a gradual recovery of the euro and its European peers is expected.”

Credit Agricole considers that the Euro is undervalued

It added; “EU tariff talk from the Trump administration could continue to add to the headwinds for the EUR vs the GBP in the coming days. That being said, a lot of negatives seem to be in the price of EUR/GBP and the FX pair is looking quite undervalued already.”

There was a shift in stance from a Bank of England Deputy Governor during the week. Ramsden stated that he was uneasy over wage developments in the UK and that risks to inflation are no longer to the downside.

He stated that risks are more balanced while the outlook is more uncertain.

Inflation concerns could delay further BoE rate cuts which would reinforce positive Pound yield spreads over the Euro, at least in the short term.

ING commented; “Having cut rates in February, the path of least resistance is for the Bank of England to keep lowering rates once per quarter for the remainder of the year.”

The bank; however, expects a more aggressive policy stance; “Still, the jobs market is under more visible pressure and we expect service sector inflation to fall back in the spring, undershooting the most recent BoE forecasts. That should make the Bank more comfortable with cutting rates much closer to 3% than markets are currently pricing.”

ING expects reduced yield spreads will undermine Pound support later in the year. The bank also remains concerned over fiscal policy with the risk that the government will have to announce further spending cuts later this month.

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Euro Forecasts

• EUR/USD trades below 1.0850 after closing in negative territory on Thursday.
• The near-term technical outlook highlights a lack of buyer interest.
• The cautious market mood could make it difficult for the pair to rebound.

EUR/USD failed to shake off the bearish pressure on Thursday and registered losses for the second consecutive day. The pair stays on the back foot and trades below 1.0850 in the European morning on Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) capitalized on the risk-averse market atmosphere and gathered strength against its rivals on Thursday. Upbeat macroeconomic data releases further supported the currency and made it difficult for EUR/USD to find a foothold.

The US Department of Labor reported that there were 223,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending March 15, slightly below the market expectation of 224,000. Other data from the US showed that Existing Home Sales increased by 4.2% in February, following January’s 4.7% decline. Finally, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index arrived at 12.5 in March, surpassing analysts’ estimate of 8.5.

The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Friday. Hence, investors could react to changes in risk perception heading into the weekend. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down about 0.1% on the day. A bearish opening in Wall Street could help the USD hold its ground and cause EUR/USD to stretch lower.

Investors will also pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials now that the Fed’s blackout period is over. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 15% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in May. In case policymakers hint that another policy-easing step could be taken at the next meeting, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure and allow EUR/USD to reverse its direction.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 40 and EUR/USD continues to trade below the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA). In case the pair drops below 1.0830 (static level) and starts using this level as resistance, it could meet interim support at 1.0800 (static level, round level) ahead of 1.0730 (200-day SMA).

On the upside, resistances could be spotted at 1.0890-1.0900 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA, static level), 1.0950 (static level) and 1.1000 (static level, round level).

Created on March 21, 2025

• The British pound initially plunged during the trading session against the Japanese yen but has turned around to show signs of life.
• Again, at this point, the 200 day EMA looks as if it is offering support right along with the 50 day EMA.
• I think we probably get a run toward the 195 yen level at this juncture.

If we can break above there, then I think you really start to see the British pound punish the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan seemed a little wishy-washy as it were about interest rate hikes. The British pound is offering quite a bit more in the way of swap than the Japanese yen is. In fact, the official bank rate vote tally was a little bit more hawkish than anticipated coming out of London during the day. So that has a lot to do with what we are seeing here.

I Remain Bullish Overall

With this, I would be somewhat bullish. I recognize that there’s a lot of fear out there and the Japanese yen can be enticing during those times, but it certainly looks like somebody is willing to jump into this pair and take advantage of cheap British pounds. I have no interest in trying to get short of this market, at least not at the moment and at this point would be watching the 50 day EMA as a potential signal, which is just below the lows of the session, right around the 191.90 yen level. Expect a lot of noise, expect a lot of choppiness, but I do think at this point in time, it looks like we’re going to try to rally back towards that crucial 195 yen level. A move above there opens up another 300 pips to the upside.

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• GBP/USD trade below 1.2950 in the European session on Friday.
• The Bank of England left the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, as expected.
• The pair’s near-term technical outlook points to a buildup of bearish momentum.

GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.2950 after closing in negative territory on Thursday. The pair’s technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish pressure in the near term.

The Bank of England announced on Thursday that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, as widely expected. Only one policymaker, Swati Dhingra voted in favor of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. In the policy statement, the BoE reiterated that it will stick to a “gradual and careful” approach to removing policy restrain, adding that the policy will need to remain restrictive for sufficiently long. Although the BoE’s cautious on further easing limited Pound Sterling’s losses, it failed to support the currency in a noticeable way.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) held its ground on the back of upbeat data releases and didn’t allow GBP/USD to gain traction. 

The Initial Jobless Claims in the US came in at 223,000 in the week ending March 15, the US Department of Labor reported on Thursday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 224,000. Additionally, Existing Home Sales increased by 4.2% in February, following January’s 4.7% drop and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index arrived at 12.5 in March, surpassing analysts’ estimate of 8.5.

In the absence of high-tier data releases, the risk sentiment could drive the pair’s action heading into the weekend. After posting marginal gains in the Asian session, US stock index futures turned south and were last seen losing between 0.2% and 0.3% on the day. A risk-averse market atmosphere in the second half of the day could support the USD and weigh on GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD trades in the lower half of the ascending regression channel, and the pair closed the last 4-hour candle below the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to its lowest level since late February near 40, reflecting a buildup of bearish momentum.

Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.2900 (static level, round level) ahead of 1.2870 (100-period SMA) and 1.2850 (lower limit of the ascending channel). On the upside, 1.2950 (50-period SMA, static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.2990-1.3000 (static level, round level, mid-point of the ascending channel) and 1.3040 (static level).

The EUR/USD pair edged higher in intraday trading after the pivotal support of $1.0820 held on, which represents the neckline of a negative technical pattern that formed in the short term, the Double Top pattern, lending the price some positive momentum which helped it pare some earlier losses, while the price also tries to vent off oversold saturation in the Stochastic as it starts to send out positive signals. 

It comes after the price pierced a secondary upward trend line, trespassing with this negative move the 50-candle SMA and exposing the price to mounting pressure, with an increasing potential for the downward correctional trend to dominate upcoming trading.