July 11, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: “1.170-1.175 Area for Now”

Evidence of on-going Federal Reserve resistance to interest rate cuts has supported the dollar with markets continuing to monitor trade developments closely.

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was unable to move above 1.1750 on Thursday and retreated to test the 1.1700 area around the US open.

According to ING; “barring major surprises in the details of the deal, EUR/USD may stay attached to the 1.170-1.175 area for now.”

UoB took a similar view; “we view any advance as part of a higher range of 1.1700/1.1755.”

According to Scotiabank; “the multi-month trend remains bullish but the EUR’s latest consolidation has delivered a considerable loss of momentum.”

It sees a slightly wider near-term range; “We see the near-term range bound between 1.1680 support and 1.1780 resistance.”

ING noted that Euro demand in derivatives markets has slowed. It added; “Should this decline prove sustainable, it would signal markets are seriously scaling back bullish views on the pair – another testament of how the dollar is not bearing the risks associated with this round of tariff announcements for now.”

There was an important trade development overnight with the US threatening 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the US.

There is, however, still optimism that the EU will be able to negotiate some form of framework deal over the next few days.

According to Scotiabank; “while markets may understand that these announcement are just gambits in more extended trade negotiations, the persistence with tariff action may be wearing on investor patience.”

ING takes a more positive stance on the US currency; “we could see it get to 20% from the current 14%. But how we get there matters hugely for the dollar. A gradual implementation of sector-specific tariffs should do much less damage to the dollar compared to sudden, ‘Liberation Day’-style measures. The former may ultimately result in some inflationary effect that can keep the Fed cautious for longer – a dollar positive.”

The latest US data recorded a decline in initial jobless claims to 227,000 in the latest week from a revised 232,000 previously while continuing claims edged higher to 1.97mn from 1.96mn.

The data did not indicate any further near-term labour-market deterioration.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released minutes from the June policy meeting.

Two members saw scope to cut interest rates at the July policy meeting, but the majority were not convinced that inflation trends justified a near-term move.

According to MUFG; “the minutes continued to signal that “most” participants expected it likely would be appropriate to cut rates this year but they are waiting for more data to provide clarity over the impact of tariffs.”

It added; “The prospect of an even earlier rate cut later this month appears to be off the table now after the stronger than expected nonfarm payroll report for June.”

There has been a further shift in market pricing with traders now pricing in only just above a 30% chance of a September cut.

RBC Capital Markets is still positive on the Euro; “As the second-most traded currency, the euro essentially acts as the “anti-dollar,” and the currency’s appreciation this year partly reflects the extent to which the greenback has fallen.”

It added; “Having said that, there have been a number of positive developments in Europe this quarter that could strengthen the currency in coming months.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades in negative territory below 1.3550 on Friday.
• The US Dollar could preserve its strength unless risk flows return to markets.
• The technical outlook suggests that sellers look to retain control in the near term.

After closing marginally lower on Thursday, GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.3550 in the European session on Friday. The negative shift seen in risk mood could make it difficult for the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.

The US Dollar (USD) benefited from the better-than-forecast weekly Initial Jobless Claims data in the early American session on Thursday. Later in the day, US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements caused markets to adopt a cautious stance, providing an additional boost to the USD and weighing on GBP/USD.

Trump said that they will impose 35% tariffs on Canadian imports from August 1 and added that they are planning to impose blanket levies of 15% or 20% on most trade partners. US stock index futures were last seen losing about 0.7% on the day. In case safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets, GBP/USD could find it hard to shake off the bearish pressure.

Meanwhile, the disappointing growth data from the UK seems to be hurting Pound Sterling on Friday. The UK’s Office for National Statistics announced that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% on a monthly basis in May. This reading followed the 0.3% contraction recorded in April and came in worse than the market expectation for an expansion of 0.1%.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD trades near 1.3540, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the latest uptrend and the lower limit of the ascending channel align. In case the pair falls below this level and starts using it as resistance, 1.3500 (50-day Simple Moving Average) could be seen as the next support level before 1.3465 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).

Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.3570 (200-period Simple Moving Average), 1.3620 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.3700 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

The GBPJPY pair began forming bullish wave achieving 199.45 level, but the contradiction of the main indicators and forming an extra barrier might reduce the chances of resuming the bullish attack in the current period.

The stability of the price below the extra barrier, we will begin preferring the bearish correctional trading, which might target 198.20 level reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level near 197.45, forming an important support against the upcoming trading, while its success to breach the barrier and holding above it will increase the chances for achieving extra gains that might begin at 200.35 reaching 201.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.20 and 199.45

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair began forming bullish wave achieving 199.45 level, but the contradiction of the main indicators and forming an extra barrier might reduce the chances of resuming the bullish attack in the current period.

The stability of the price below the extra barrier, we will begin preferring the bearish correctional trading, which might target 198.20 level reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level near 197.45, forming an important support against the upcoming trading, while its success to breach the barrier and holding above it will increase the chances for achieving extra gains that might begin at 200.35 reaching 201.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.20 and 199.45

Trend forecast: Bearish

• The British pound has been all over the place during the trading session here on Thursday as we continue to pay close attention to the 1.3550 level.
• As long as this area holds and maybe just a little bit below there at the 50 day EMA, I think you’re still in an uptrend.
• After all, you can see that on the chart, I have a significant up trending channel plotted and we have been in that since basically the beginning of April.

With that being the case, there is more of a steady as she goes type of attitude in this market and there’s no reason to fight the overall trend. There isn’t really a whole lot out there that’s going to change things that I can see. And it is worth noting that for quite some time, the British pound has outperformed most of its contemporaries against the US dollar even on the way down in late last year. It just fell less, so it makes sense that as the US dollar struggles, it rises quicker.

The 1.38 Level is Important

Ultimately, I do think that the 1.38 level is worth paying close attention to as it was recent resistance. If we were to break down below that 50-day EMA though, it could open up a move down to roughly 1.3350. Overall, though, if this market does start to sell off, I imagine you’re probably going to be better off buying dollars against other currencies because none of them for the most part are as strong as the British pound has been with maybe the recent exception of the euro.

So basically, you would be looking to buy dollars in short Asia, for example. Europe looks relatively strong or at least steady as she goes. And that of course translates into the British pound doing the same thing as the Euro and other European assets. With this, I remain a little bit positive, but I’m not looking for huge moves. I’m just looking for a grind higher.

Ready to trade our daily Forex GBP/USD analysis? We’ve made this UK forex brokers list for you to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

July 10, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pares Gains as US Jobless Claims Bolster Dollar

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate was trapped in a narrow range despite Thursday’s upbeat market mood.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately 1.35654, showing losses of 0.24%.

Before the US jobless claims data release, the US Dollar (USD) had faced headwinds on Thursday, weakening against a number of its major peers as multiple factors weighed on the currency.

Improved market sentiment following President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcements saw investors pivot away from the safe-haven ‘Greenback’. This risk-on mood limited USD demand through much of the European session.

Adding further pressure, the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, published on Wednesday evening, signalled a more dovish tone.

Several policymakers indicated a willingness to consider cutting interest rates in July, depending on how upcoming data unfolds.

This shift in Fed rhetoric dragged on the Dollar, with traders increasingly pricing in potential policy easing.

Looking ahead, the US’s latest initial jobless claims could add to the pressure. Any uptick in filings may reinforce expectations of a rate cut and further undermine USD appeal.

The Pound (GBP) traded sideways on Thursday, lacking the momentum to stage any significant moves amid a continued dearth of UK economic data.

As markets maintained a broadly optimistic tone, Sterling slipped against higher-risk currencies that tend to outperform in buoyant conditions.

At the same time, the Pound’s increasing sensitivity to risk allowed it to hold firm against its safe-haven rivals like the US Dollar.

With no fresh UK data to offer direction, GBP remained stuck within a narrow trading range, drifting in line with broader market sentiment throughout the session.

Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, the spotlight will fall on the UK’s latest GDP figures for May, which are expected to show a modest rebound.

Forecasts point to a rise in monthly growth from -0.3% to 0.1%.

If the data confirms an economic recovery, it could lend the Pound some support, potentially allowing GBP/USD to edge higher and end the week on a stronger note.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar looks set to remain at the mercy of broader market sentiment, with no notable US data due for release on Friday.

If investor confidence fades heading into the weekend, safe-haven demand could offer the ‘Greenback’ a lift.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• GBP/USD continues to move sideways near 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday.
• Markets turn cautious while assessing the US trade policy.
• The technical outlook suggests that bearish bias remains intact but lacks momentum.

Following Wednesday’s indecisive action, GBP/USD stays relatively quiet in the European session on Thursday and continues to fluctuate at around 1.3600. Pound Sterling could have a hard time attracting buyers unless the risk mood improves in a noticeable way.

US President Donald Trump reiterated his threat of imposing an additional 10% tariff on any country that aligns with the BRICS group on Wednesday. Trump also shared a new set of tariff letters, unveiling rates on imports from some minor trading partners, such as Libya, Algeria and Philippines.

Investors remain cautious and stay away from risk-sensitive assets as they struggle to assess the US economic and inflation outlook, given the lack of clarity on the US’ trade relations with major trading partners. After Wall Street’s main indexes registered moderate gains midweek, US stock index futures stay in negative territory on Thursday. A bearish action in major equity indexes in the US could allow the US Dollar (USD) to benefit from safe-haven flows and weigh on GBP/USD.

The US economic calendar will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which is forecast to show that there were 235,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending July 5. The market reaction to this data is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. A noticeable decline could help the USD hold its ground, while a significant increase could hurt the currency.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 after recovering from below-40 earlier in the week, suggesting that the bearish bias remains intact in the short term but lacks momentum.

The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart stays as a pivot level at 1.3600. In case GBP/USD stays below this level and confirms it as resistance, 1.3570 (200-period SMA) could be seen as the next support level before 1.3540 (lower limit of the ascending channel, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).

Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.3630 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), 1.3650 (50-period SMA) and 1.3700 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied during the trading session here on Thursday in the early hours. But really, at this point in time, we have the same problem. It’s the 0.6550 area offering a ton of resistance. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where traders continue to see a lot of back and forth choppy behavior and I don’t see why that would change anytime soon. After all, we’ve been grinding higher, and grinding is probably the best word here for the market in what it’s been doing over the last couple of months. I believe you have a scenario where eventually we may try to break above the 0.66 level, but I’m not in a rush to get into this pair, mainly due to the fact that it just hasn’t been very dynamic.

It’s just been a grind back and forth. You basically have a slight tilt in a channel, but no momentum whatsoever. So quite frankly, there’s easier ways to short the US dollar. If we were to turn around and break down below the 50 day EMA, then that would be, for me at least, the same as breaking below a trend line and it could send the US dollar stronger against the Australian dollar making this pair drop towards the 200 day EMA possibly even lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPJPY pair reached 199.85 level in its last bullish rally, which forced it to form a bearish correctional rebound, to fluctuate below 66.8%Fibonacci correction level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, forcing it to delay the positivity temporarily currently.

The main stability within the bullish channel’s levels in the above image makes us wait to gather the positive momentum, to expect the trading confinement between the current trading at 198.00 level, forming extra support while forming bullish waves might assist reaching 199.45 and 200.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.30 and 199.45

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

• During the trading session on Wednesday, we see the US dollar rally against the Japanese yen to reach toward the ¥147 level, but it has turned back around to show signs of hesitation.
• This is not a huge surprise, considering that the market has been in a range for what seemed like a lifetime, and we are getting close to the top of it.

Interest Rate Differential

I believe that the interest rate differential will eventually propel the US dollar higher against Japanese yen, especially considering the fact that the Japanese bond market is a bit of a disaster at the moment. The Bank of Japan may have to step in and start buying bonds, which is essentially the same thing as quantitative easing, so that could really play havoc on the Japanese yen. That being said, they have not done it yet, so there is a little bit of hesitation and there are a lot of questions asked of whether or not they would actually do it. Or, you also have to keep in mind that we are in a downtrend to get this is area, and typically speaking, consolidation leads to continuation. However, the fundamentals don’t necessarily scream that we should be selling off.

When we do pull back, I’ll be looking for buying opportunities underneath current levels, such as the ¥145 region, followed by the ¥142 region. Ultimately, I think it’s only a matter of time before we see value hunters coming back into the market, but if we were to break above the ¥148 level, then we snap through the 200 Day EMA, which of course would be very bullish to say the least. If that were to happen, then I would anticipate that we have a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of market. Ultimately, I think we do see a lot of volatility, but I’ll be looking to buy the dip here as we should continue to go back and forth in this range in the short term, before finally breaking out and making a bigger move.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.