The EURJPY pair was affected by some of the positive pressures, due to the continuation of forming extra support at 161.60, and stochastic rally towards the 80 level, to notice reaching the resistance at 162.90.

We couldn’t confirm regaining the bullish bias unless surpassing the resistance and providing positive closes above 163.25 level, therefore, we will keep preferring the negative attempts in the current period, which might target the support at 161.60, while achieving the conditions of regaining the bullish bias will ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at 164.20 and 164.90.

The expected trading range for today is between 161.60 and 163.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

• GBP/USD retreats to the 1.3300 region following Thursday’s rebound.
• The technical outlook highlights a lack of buyer interest.
• Critical support level for the pair aligns at 1.3250.

GBP/USD stays on the back foot following Thursday’s rebound and trades slightly below 1.3300 in the European session on Friday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength makes it difficult for the pair to hold its ground as investors remain focused on latest developments surrounding the US-China trade relations.

US President Donald Trump said late Thursday that a meeting between Chinese and US officials took place earlier in the day. During the Asian trading hours, Bloomberg reported that China was considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment and ethane, and officials were having discussions about waiving tariffs on plane leases.

Although China’s Foreign Ministry denied the news about US and China engaging in negotiations, investors remain optimistic about a further de-escalation of tensions. Hence, the USD Index stays in positive territory above 99.60 after losing 0.5% on Thursday.

The US economic calendar will feature the University of Michigan’s revision of the April Consumer Sentiment Index, which is unlikely to trigger a market reaction. In case market mood remains upbeat heading into the weekend, GBP/USD could have a hard time gaining traction. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.1% and 0.5% on the day, pointing to a bullish opening in Wall Street.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart moves sideways near 50, suggesting that the pair is struggling to gather directional momentum.

GBP/USD faces a critical support level at 1.3250, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend is located. If this support fails, additional losses toward 1.3200 (static level) and 1.3150 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) could be seen. On the upside, 1.3300 (static level, 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-period SMA) aligns as first resistance ahead of 1.3340 (static level) and 1.3400-1.3410 (round level, static level).

• The USD/JPY price analysis indicates accelerating price pressures in Japan.

• Tokyo’s CPI increased by 3.4%, which is above forecasted to be a 3.2% increase.

• The dollar regained appeal as trade tensions between China and the US eased.

The USD/JPY price analysis indicates accelerating price pressures in Japan, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise rates. However, policymakers remain concerned about the economic impacts of Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, easing trade tensions between China and the US supported the dollar.

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The yen strengthened briefly on Friday after data revealed that inflation in Tokyo beat estimates. The CPI increased by 3.4%, above forecasts of a 3.2% increase. Moreover, it recorded a massive jump from the previous reading of 2.4%. Accelerating inflation aligns with the BoJ’s recent message of more rate hikes. However, Trump’s tariffs have created uncertainty about the timing of the timing of the next move. 

On the other hand, the dollar regained its appeal as trade tensions between China and the US eased. Both countries appear ready to lower tariffs and begin negotiations. The US has said it can lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 50%. Meanwhile, China is ready to exempt some US goods from tariffs. A deal to end the trade war would boost the dollar and ease economic worries. Meanwhile, the yen might lose its safe-haven appeal and drop.

USD/JPY key events today

Traders do not expect any high-impact economic releases from the US or Japan. Therefore, they will keep watching trade war developments.

USD/JPY technical price analysis: Channel breakout signals new trend

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken out of its bearish channel. Immediately after the breakout, the price pulled back to retest the channel resistance and is now climbing higher. The channel breakout indicates a bullish shift in sentiment. The price now trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50. Therefore, the bullish bias is strong. 

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Bears had a strong lead, maintaining a downtrend, with the price mostly below the 30-SMA. However, they could not go past the 140.01 support level. Consequently, bulls took over by pushing the price above the SMA and past the channel resistance. 

Given the strong bullish bias, USD/JPY could soon retest the 145.02 resistance level. A break above this level will confirm a new uptrend.

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Created on April 25, 2025

• The Euro has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but gave back some of the gains as you can see.
• And it looks to me like a market that is probably trying to sort itself out as to whether or not we can continue to go higher.
• I think more likely than not, what we are going to see is a situation where traders look to establish some type of range.

I do think that the range could be between 1.12 and 1.15, but that of course remains to be seen. We’ll just have to wait to see how that plays out. I certainly think that it’s hard to short this pair, although the US dollar is most certainly oversold. This is true not only here, but many other currency pairs as well.

Noise Would be Expected Here

The reality is this is a market that will continue to be very noisy and front and center in the sense that the trade talks between the United States and Europe haven’t progressed yet. If and when they do, it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out here, mainly due to the fact that Germany is pulling out of a recession and there is talk at least of the United States heading into one. So interesting days we live in right now.

I think ultimately you have a situation where traders will look at this through the prism of perhaps trying to take advantage of a range in the short term. But if we were to break down below the 1.12 level, that could change a lot of things for a lot of people. We’ll just have to wait and see. I’m pretty neutral at the moment. I do think that we’ve got some work to do. If nothing else, we’ve got to work off some of this excess fraud.

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Gold price rose in its recent intraday trading, taking advantage of the bullish trend domination on the short-term basis, where the price moves along minor positive line, reinforcing its gains by a clear support from its stability above EMA50.

The positive momentum was supported by the continuation of the positive signals emergence on the (RSI), which confirms the strength of the current pressures towards the upside.

Therefore, the positive scenario remains preferred as long as the price settled above $3,290 support, to target the main resistance at $3,400, if the price managed to surpass this resistance we might witness recording new highs.

The expected trading range is between $3,290 support and $3,400 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

• EUR/JPY is likely to encounter initial resistance around the “pullback resistance” level near 164.50.
• The 14-day RSI holding above 50 reinforces the bullish bias.
• The initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 162.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 161.34.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 162.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross consolidating within an ascending channel, reinforcing a bullish outlook.

Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 mark, reinforcing the bullish bias. The currency cross also trades above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating solid short-term momentum and the potential for continued upside.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may face initial resistance at the “pullback resistance” near the 164.50 level. If this is surpassed, the next significant obstacle is at 166.69, which marks a nine-month high last seen in October 2024. A break above this level could open the doors for the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 169.00 level.

The EUR/JPY cross could encounter initial support at the nine-day EMA around 162.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 161.34. A break below these levels might weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum, potentially applying downward pressure to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 160.50. A further decline could bring the currency cross to its two-month low of 155.59, recorded on March 4, followed by 154.41, its lowest level since December 2023.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

April 24, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Bullish, Next Resistance at 1.34

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) again found support close to 1.3250 and traded close to 1.3300 in Europe on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from Wednesday’s highs.

Volatility has eased to some extent, but underlying stresses remain substantial with choppy trading.

According to Scotiabank; “We look to near-term support between 1.3220 and 1.3250 and resistance between 1.3400 and 1.3420.”

MUFG is still not convinced that there is a lot of mileage in the dollar rebound; “While further steps to water down/reverse tariffs would be positive developments, we are not convinced that recent developments are sufficient yet to support a more sustained rebound for the US dollar at the current juncture.”

There have been further media headlines suggesting that the Trump Administration is planning a more conciliatory stance towards tariffs, although the underlying details have tended to be less favourable, reinforcing uncertainty.

According to Rabobank; “Pantomime policies produce pantomime markets.”

It added; “This has been fully evident in the oscillating price action in recent sessions with Trump’s ‘he’s behind you, oh no he isn’t!’ approach to governing not only prompting market reversals but even arguably resulting in the same driver provoking two diametrically-opposed reactions.”

Scotiabank commented; “The positive spin on trade reflects the reality that, at this point, the US may need an off-ramp more than China does. The Chinese leadership has not picked up the phone for the White House by some accounts and talks with China on trade have not been held even at low diplomatic levels.

It added; “It seems that there is little appetite in China to make concessions and any agreement is a long way off. Relief for the USD may be temporary as trade uncertainty will continue to shade US economic prospects.”

Underlying economic pressures will build quickly amid logistics challenges and pricing pressures.

According to Rabobank; “with a de facto US-China trade embargo in place, the US economy could see shortages on shelves within weeks and/or of price rises; and even if there is a tariff U-turn, logistics would then be overwhelmed.”

The Beige Book reported that the outlook in several districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty around tariffs rose. Immediate pricing dynamics were little changed, but most Districts noted that firms expected elevated input cost growth resulting from tariffs.

There is still a high degree of uncertainty, especially given lags and attempts to buy goods ahead of price increases and there will be mixed official data in the short term.

At this stage, markets are pricing in just below a 60% chance of a June rate cut, but the Fed will be in a very difficult position if inflation pressures increase.

MUFG commented; “The US dollar could derive more support going forward if the US economy does not slow as much as feared making it harder for the Fed to cut rates as much as currently priced in.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

April 24, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Crucial EURUSD Support Near 1.13

After finding support above 1.1300, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) posted strong gains to just below 1.14 on Thursday before settling just above 1.1350 as the dollar’s recovery from 3-year lows ran out of steam and better than expected data helped protect the Euro.

Scotiabank commented on the short-term outlook; “EURUSD remains in an uptrend, with a clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs. Recent support has been observed in the 1.1280 area and near-term resistance appears limited ahead of 1.15.”

According to ING; “The 1.130 area is key: in the past couple of weeks, attempted EUR/USD corrections faced heavy buying interest around that level. A decisive break below 1.130 can open the door for a bigger leg lower.”

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius noted the perils of forecasting; “I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than predicting growth, inflation and interest rates.”

He does, however, have strong views; “But with all due humility, I believe that the recent dollar depreciation of 5% on a broad trade-weighted basis has considerably further to go.”

Hatzius pointed to two historical periods with similar dollar valuations to the present day – the mid-1980s and early 2000s – and these set the stage for a 25-30% depreciation.

Markets are continuing to monitor trade related headlines very closely, but there have been no major developments surrounding tariff talks on Thursday.

MUFG commented; “While further steps to water down/reverse tariffs would be positive developments, we are not convinced that recent developments are sufficient yet to support a more sustained rebound for the US dollar at the current juncture.”

Scotiabank added; “Grounds for optimism on trade should remain in check, I think which will serve to keep the USD on the defensive.”

There was further relatively dovish rhetoric from Fed Governor Waller who stated that he expects tariff-related price increases would be a on-off event and that we would be willing to look through price increases.

Waller also stated that the focus on data brings the risk of being too late on policy action.

The German IFO business confidence index edged higher to 86.9 for April from 86.7 previously and significantly above consensus forecasts of 85.1.

There was a net improvement in the current conditions index with only a small retreat in the expectations component.

According to the IFO; “Uncertainty among the companies has increased. The German economy is preparing for turbulence.”

ING commented; “All in all, today’s Ifo index comes as a positive surprise.”

The bank, however, put this into perspective; “Still, we caution against too premature optimism. There are currently more unknowns than knowns for the German economy, and we continue to expect another year of stagnation – which would mark the first time ever for Germany to go through three consecutive years without growth.”

ECB rhetoric remains relatively dovish with the potential for further rate cuts while there were also reports from within the central bank that is considering changing strategy to enable more nimble moves.

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 24, 2025

• The British pound has rallied significantly against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday, as the ¥190 level has been broken.
• Breaking above the ¥190 level allows for the market to go higher, but I also recognize that this is a situation where traders will have to be somewhat cautious as the risk profile for markets around the world is all over the place.
• As a general rule, this is a market that rallies when people are feeling like taking on more risk, and falls when people are much more cautious.
• As things stand right now, caution makes quite a bit of sense as the markets remained very erratic.

Technical Analysis

Obviously, breaking above the ¥190 level is a very bullish sign, and therefore it does open up the possibility that the British Pound continues to go much higher. The 50 Day EMA is sitting right around the ¥191 level, so that might be our first barrier. If we can clear that area, then the 200 Day EMA, just above the ¥192 level, is your next potential target.

After that, the British pound could go looking to the ¥195 level. This of course would be a major coup for the British pound bulls, and an area that should see a lot of resistance. If we can break above there, then it changes the entire outlook for this pair.

That being said, rallying to the ¥195 level would not be as crazy as it sounds, because it would just be a return to the previous consolidation area that we had been in. After all, this was the ceiling previously for several months, so return to testing that makes quite a bit of sense.

If we were to break down from here, the ¥188 level is very important, and breaking below there could open up a move all the way down to the ¥185 level. While that doesn’t seem as likely, it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind for potential targeting.

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Created on April 24, 2025

• For two consecutive days, the GBP/USD currency pair has been subject to selling pressure originating from the resistance level of 1.3423, the pair’s highest in six months.
• Losses extending to the support level of 1.3233, around which today’s Thursday trading session is expected to open.
• This comes ahead of a round of US economic releases, led by the announcement of the US weekly jobless claims and US durable goods orders figures, which will be released today, Thursday, at 13:30 Saudi Arabia time.

Sterling Affected by Economic Data Results

According to Forex trading, the British pound declined against most other major currencies following the release of the latest UK services PMI data. The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April revealed a marked decline in the UK’s vital services sector, falling below the 50-point threshold for the first time in 18 months, the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Amid ongoing global disruptions stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, this month’s services sector data reflected broader economic challenges, leading to decreased demand for the British pound in mid-week trading.

Trading Tips:

The British pound will remain the best performer amid market pressure on the dollar due to Trump’s trade wars, with Britain relatively insulated from the tension.

UK stock prices rebound

According to recent trading and across stock trading platforms, the UK’s FTSE 100 index closed higher by approximately 0.9% at 8,403 points, tracking gains in major stock markets amid trader optimism that trade tensions between the US and China would soon ease. At the same time, concerns about the independence of US monetary policy subsided. Meanwhile, traders monitored the April Manufacturing and Services PMI data, along with major corporate earnings results. The latest data showed UK business activity returning to contraction in April, at its fastest rate in over two years.

According to stock prices, Croda International shares rose by 8.2%, leading the index, after the chemical group reported strong first-quarter sales. On the other hand, Fresnillo shares were among the biggest losers, falling by 5.2%, as the precious metals mining company reported a decrease in silver and gold production in the first quarter despite reaffirming its full-year production outlook.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to recent trading, the GBP/USD pair has recently retreated from its highs near 1.3490, suggesting a potential corrective move within the broader bullish trend. The pair is currently testing key Fibonacci retracement levels that could provide significant support areas for buyers. After reaching overbought conditions, the price has declined towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3153, which could offer initial support. Should selling pressure persist, the 50% retracement level at 1.3068 and the 61.8% level at 1.2983 could form the next key support areas. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is particularly important as it coincides with a previous resistance area that could now act as support.

From a broader trend perspective, the GBP/USD pair maintains its bullish structure on the daily timeframe, as evidenced by the series of higher lows and higher highs since March. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains above the 200-day SMA, confirming that the dominant trend is upward.

At the same time, both moving averages are trending upwards, reinforcing the bullish bias. The pair is also trading above an ascending trendline that has supported price action since early March. However, momentum indicators suggest some caution. The Stochastic oscillator is trending downwards from the overbought zone, indicating the potential for continued downward pressure in the near term. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined from elevated levels and has room to fall before reaching oversold conditions.

Looking ahead, if the current pullback finds support at any of the aforementioned Fibonacci levels, the GBP/USD pair could resume its bullish trend towards its recent highs and potentially target the 1.3600 area. Conversely, a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the ascending trendline could signal a deeper correction towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2707.

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