• The euro initially pulled back just a touch in the early hours of Monday, but it looks as if we are ready to continue going higher in what has been a slightly overextended run.
• At the end of the day, we are obviously very bullish of the market at the moment, despite the fact that I can give you a handful of reasons why the US dollar is oversold.

Perhaps we will turn around, but at this point in time you have to assume that there will be a bit of continuation overall, as the trend has clearly been positive for several months. If we do pull back from here, then we could look at a move to the 1.16 level, an area that previously had been a major resistance level. This could bring in a bit of “market memory” into the market, as traders would try to either cover short positions that has been wrong or perhaps try to join in on what had been a massive move higher.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is obviously very bullish, but I also recognize that we have gotten a little ahead of ourselves. After all, the 50 Day EMA is all the way down at the 1.14 level but is rising to perhaps try to meet the rest of the market. On the other hand, if we continue to go higher, we will have to deal with the 1.18 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that would attract a certain amount of attention. Regardless, it does seem as if the euro is hell-bent on going much higher given enough time, so I think most traders will be looking at this through the prism of perhaps trying to find a little bit of value.

Over the longer term, a lot of this will come down to what the Federal Reserve does, and you should keep in mind that the Non-Foreign Payroll announcement comes out on Thursday this week instead of Friday, so it will compress some of the volatility as far as time is concerned. Whether or not that influences this pair remains to be seen, but now market participants have priced in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, driving this pair higher.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Platinum price attempted to renew the bullish attempts by its rally to $1377.40, but its neediness to the positive momentum that pushed it to form weak and sideways trading, to settle near $1342.00 approaching from the bullish channel’s support at $1330.00.

The current scenario depends on the strength of the mentioned support, its stability makes us expect forming bullish waves, to confirm its stability above $1366.00 level, to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack and reaching the next target near $1400.00, while breaking the support and holding below it will confirm activating the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching $1303.00 initially followed by $1275.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1382.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• EUR/JPY may rebound toward the 12-month high at 169.86, marked on Monday.
• The 14-day RSI hovers just below 70, indicating the persistent bullish bias.
• The nine-day EMA of 168.77 would act as the primary support.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 169.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern, strengthening the bullish bias.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 70 mark, strengthening the bullish sentiment. However, if the RSI breaks above the 70 mark, the pair would be in an overbought zone and indicate a downward correction soon. Additionally, the short-term price momentum is stronger as the EUR/JPY cross remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the 12-month high at 169.86, which was recorded on June 30. A successful breach above this level would reinforce the market bias and support the currency cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 171.40.

The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 168.77. Further declines would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to fall toward the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 167.00, followed by the 50-day EMA at 165.32.

A break below the 50-day EMA would dampen the medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to navigate the region around the “throwback resistance” at 161.00

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• • USD/JPY faces pressure as bullish momentum fades.
  • The USD/JPY momentum indicators signal fading trend strength, as the ADX and MACD weaken.
  • Broader US Dollar weakness adds to downside pressure on USD/JPY, pushing prices toward 144.00.

The USD/JPY is struggling to hold key support on Monday as bullish momentum continues to fade, with both the daily and weekly charts indicating weakening trend strength. 

After failing to sustain gains above the 148.00 level last week, the pair has drifted lower, moving back toward rising trendline support near the 144.00 handle.

This trendline currently aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline at 144.37, a zone the pair is now trying to defend. Monday’s price action shows USD/JPY attempting to stabilize above this support area, but momentum indicators suggest the move may lack conviction.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 144.19. With momentum softening across various timeframes, technical signals continue to indicate a range-bound market, increasing the risk of a downside break if support levels fail to hold.

Momentum indicators hint at fading trend strength for USD/JPY

The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily timeframe has dropped to 10.87, indicating an extremely weak trend, even more so than the weekly reading. This further confirms that recent moves are corrective in nature rather than part of a sustained trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart is also flattening out, with histogram bars losing strength and the signal line turning sideways. This suggests a lack of bullish follow-through after last week’s failed breakout near 148.00.

USD/JPY daily chart

The weekly chart below illustrates how longer-term moving averages continue to act as dynamic support and resistance for USD/JPY price action.

Last week, the pair surged after climbing above both the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 147.14. 

A weaker Yen helped fuel the recovery, briefly lifting the pair to retest the psychological 148.00 level.

USD/JPY dips below the 20-week SMA as bullish momentum fades

However, the move stalled as profit-taking and a lack of bullish follow-through triggered a reversal. This is reflected in the weekly candle’s thin upper wick, indicating fading buying interest near 148.00. The pair has since slipped back below the 20-week SMA, which now turns into resistance at 145.92.

Momentum signals are softening. The ADX closed last week pointing lower, indicating weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting any upside seen so far is likely corrective rather than the start of a sustainable uptrend.

USD/JPY weekly chart

Bearish bias persists for USD/JPY below 144.00

Looking to this week, Monday’s price action has pushed the pair toward rising trendline support, which is currently holding above the psychological 144.00 level.

A break below 144.00 could bring the 142.79 area into focus, the third touchpoint of the ascending trendline. Below that, 142.00 stands as another key psychological level, with a deeper move possibly exposing the 140.00 handle.

The April trendline remains a key short-term support structure; however, broader technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. Both the 20 and 50-week SMAs continue to slope downward, reinforcing the longer-term bearish bias unless price can reclaim and hold above the 149.00 region.

June 30, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Steady vs Dollar as UK GDP in line with Expectations

The Pound Sterling trended mostly flat against the US Dollar on Monday despite the release of some optimistic UK GDP data.

The Pound (GBP) began the week on the back foot, weakening against several major peers despite the release of stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the British economy expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, a notable improvement from the previous 0.1% reading and in line with forecasts.

However, the Pound struggled to gain traction.

Markets appeared cautious in their response, with investors questioning whether the momentum can be sustained amid ongoing consumer spending pressures and signs of labour market weakness.

As a result, GBP was unable to fully capitalise on the economic rebound.

The US Dollar (USD) was largely directionless on Monday, trading in a narrow range against most major peers as a lack of high-impact US data left markets without a clear catalyst.

With little on the domestic economic calendar to drive movement, investors appeared hesitant to make bold moves on the ‘Greenback’ ahead of key releases due on Tuesday.

These include May’s JOLTs job openings and the ISM manufacturing PMI for June, both of which could significantly influence market sentiment if they deviate from expectations.

In the meantime, the absence of fresh drivers kept USD exchange rates mostly flat through Monday’s European session.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, movement in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to be driven by a mix of UK and US economic releases.

In the US, the spotlight will fall on the latest JOLTs job openings and ISM manufacturing PMI.

Job openings are forecast to decline, while the manufacturing index is expected to remain unchanged.

If both figures meet expectations or disappoint, the US Dollar could come under renewed pressure as signs of a cooling labour market and stagnant factory activity may weigh on Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Meanwhile, the UK will publish its finalised manufacturing PMI for June.

The index is set to be revised slightly higher, from 46.4 to 47.7. However, as the reading remains firmly below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction, the revision is unlikely to offer much meaningful support to Sterling.

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Tariffs bite, budget cracks widen, bets surge—pressure’s building and the technicals aren’t offering much relief.

• USD/JPY correlations with key macro drivers remain weak entering Q3
• Political risks and tariff policy are weighing on the U.S. dollar
• Markets now favour three Fed cuts in 2025 as data softens
• BoJ hike risk alive if trade tensions ease; markets split on timing
• USD/JPY downside favoured, with 138.00 key if 140.25 gives way

USD/JPY Outlook Summary

With weakening through Q2 and falling correlations with traditional macro drivers, markets are clearly responding to a different set of influences. Once a pair heavily dictated by U.S.–Japan rate differentials and risk sentiment, that relationship has broken down, raising the prospect that political developments—especially those linked to U.S. trade and fiscal policy—may now be playing a greater role in driving price action.

This piece explores the fundamental backdrop heading into H2 2025, including the apparent correlation breakdown, the growing political overhang weighing on the , and what’s currently priced for both the Fed and BoJ in the second half of the year.

Correlations: Drivers Go Missing

Source: TradingView

What stands out from the recent data is the clear deterioration in correlation strength between USD/JPY and its traditional macro inputs. Looking across one-month and one-quarter rolling periods, there’s been little to no sustained relationship between the pair and major variables including U.S. Treasury yields, yield differentials, and broader risk appetite proxies like the and .

This divergence suggests markets are no longer trading the pair in a textbook fashion. Despite notable moves in both and yields over Q2, the pair has largely ignored these developments. Even front-end spread changes, typically a reliable driver of JPY flows, have failed to generate a lasting directional pull. , often used as a barometer for inflation and demand dynamics, has also shown negligible influence.

Instead, what seems to be playing a larger role is a rotation out of the triggered by growing political unease. The turning point appears to have been the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods during U.S. ‘Liberation Day’ in early April. Since then, longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields have risen relative to short-dated yields, pointing to an increase in term premium—a concept that refers to the additional yield investors demand to hold longer-term bonds given uncertainty around inflation, growth, and fiscal stability.

Source: TradingView

Importantly, this lift in term premium hasn’t supported the dollar. If anything, it’s coincided with growing distrust from offshore buyers and rising concerns around the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal trajectory. Charts of real (inflation-adjusted) yields on 10 (blue line, 20 (red line), and (black line) show the shift clearly. With 20 and 30-year TIPS now well above levels seen for most of the past decade, it suggests investors are demanding greater compensation for long-term risk.

Given U.S. potential growth is broadly seen at around 1.8%, current real yields imply markets are not only reacting to fiscal slippage but also pricing in more structural uncertainty, likely tied to concerns about governance and trade under the Trump administration.

Fed: Policy Path Hazy Amid Political Overhang

While real yields at the long end of the curve remain elevated, the front end has moved in the opposite direction. Softer inflation prints and patchy consumer data through Q2 have led to a modest dovish repricing for the Fed, with markets now assigning a decent chance to three rate cuts before the end of the year.

The bigger risk factor, though, stems from politics. Reports suggest President Trump may name a shadow Federal Reserve chair well in advance of Jerome Powell’s term expiring in May 2026.

The move could effectively undermine the independence of monetary policy in the near term, especially if the nominee signals a preference for materially lower interest rates. While Powell remains in place for now, markets are increasingly sensitive to any commentary suggesting a new policy direction is already taking shape behind the scenes.

In short, artificially low interest rates are no longer a hypothetical—they’re a growing market concern. For now, , , and remain key for the Fed outlook, but the political backdrop could start to exert more weight on rate expectations as H2 progresses.

Source: Bloomberg

BoJ: Tariff Shadow Lingers Over Policy Normalisation

The BoJ remains in a difficult position. Had it not been for growing trade-related uncertainty, there’s a strong case it would already have hiked beyond the 25bp move delivered in January. Inflation pressures remain firm, with annual core readings still sitting well above target. Domestic wage growth has also remained robust, supported by another round of sizeable increases struck earlier this year.

Despite that, markets remain hesitant to price in a meaningful tightening cycle, reflecting the cloud hanging over Japanese export prospects. With the reciprocal tariff extension set to expire on July 9, the key variable may be whether Japan can extract a deal from the U.S. that limits the damage to its auto sector.

At this stage, 25% tariffs on Japanese car imports remain in place, and without movement there, the BoJ may be reluctant to hike again. A global slowdown triggered by retaliatory trade actions would quickly reverse progress made on domestic inflation.

Still, markets remain split, with current pricing assigning roughly a 50/50 chance of a second rate hike before year-end. Should the trade overhang lift—or a deal be struck that shields Japan’s key export sectors—the BoJ may feel more confident acting again. That could reintroduce rate differentials as a driver of USD/JPY, but we’re not there yet.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Doldrums

Source: TradingView

The (DXY) has been under sustained pressure since reciprocal tariff rates were announced on U.S. Liberation Day, printing a string of lower highs and lower lows within a broader downtrend on the weekly timeframe. With a bearish key reversal candle printing in the last full week of Q2—sending the DXY tumbling through support at 97.70—it signals the dollar could lose even more ground in the early stages of H2.

Momentum indicators bolster this view with RSI (14) trending lower while sitting in deeply negative territory. MACD is doing the same, confirming the overwhelming bearish signal that favours downside over upside.

With the DXY trading below 97.70, the next downside levels to watch include 94.65 and 91.60. 97.70 may now revert to acting as resistance, with 100 and 101.90 other topside levels of note.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

Source: TradingView

While USD/JPY trades lower than when the Q2 outlook was completed, the story over recent months has been one of modest upside with support running from the April lows continuing to repel bearish moves in May and June. On the topside, sellers have been parked above 148, resulting in violent downside moves, including in late June. That price action may be informative as to what direction USD/JPY is likely to break from the ascending triangle it trades in.

Even though momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD are signalling that selling pressure is ebbing—not increasing—downside risks remain tilted lower entering H2, keeping the risk of a potential retest of support starting from 140.25 on the table.

Should we see a weekly close beneath 140.25, it would increase the risk of a move towards major support at 138.00. Below, 134.00, 129.65 and 127.00 are the levels to watch. Should sellers parked between 148.00–70 be eventually overrun, resistance levels of note include 151.00 and 153.38.

The colour-coding signifies the potential ranges where USD/JPY may finish 2025, along with an assigned probability of each occurring as marked. The green zone between 148.00 on the topside and 138.00 on the downside is favoured at 70%, underpinned by the belief that while broader USD pressure is likely to persist, in the absence of a major U.S. market meltdown that sparks major carry trade unwind or significant economic downturn (both of which screen as unlikely over the medium term), a venture into the blue zone is deemed low probability at just 20%.

The implied probability of a push above 148 is even lower at just 10%, likely requiring a combination of policy inertia from the Fed, a positive resolution to trade and geopolitical risks, along with booming financial markets. Such a backdrop comes across as more akin to wishful thinking rather than plausible.

Original Post (NYSE:)

But if we can get above this 50 day EMA, perhaps we go climbing to the 148 yen level again, which is where the 200 day EMA sits, which is typically thought of as a major support resistance area. If we do break down below here, I see a somewhat important area in the range of 142 yen, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out. I still favor the upside simply because you get paid to wait.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

And finally, taking a look at the Australian dollar, we continue to struggle with 0.6550. We’ve pulled back from there, yet again. We just cannot really take off to the upside and go looking to maybe 0.67 yet, despite the fact that the US dollar is weakening against multiple other currencies. But it appears to me that Pacific currencies, for example, the yen, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar are all in the same boat, they just can’t launch against the greenback. So that tells me that most of what we’re seeing anti US dollar is a pro Europe, pro-UK type of situation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.1700 on Monday.
• The near-term technical picture suggests that the bullish bias remains unchanged.
• Comments from central bankers could trigger the next big action in the pair.

EUR/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase above 1.1700 on Monday following the previous week’s impressive rally.

While the technical outlook remains bullish in the near term, investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speeches at the ECB Forum on Central Banking on Tuesday.

Lagarde and Powell will participate in a policy panel. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 20% probability of the Fed lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points at the July meeting. This market positioning suggests that the US Dollar (USD) could stay resilient against its peers in case Powell reaffirms that they are unlikely to ease the policy until September.

The data from Germany showed on Monday that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 2% in June’s preliminary estimate from 2.1% in May. On a monthly basis, the CPI remained unchanged. This reading came in below the market expectation for an increase of 0.2% and made it difficult for the Euro to gather strength.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s main indexes started the day in positive territory, not allowing the USD to gather recovery momentum and helping EUR/USD limit its downside.

Later in the day, EUR/USD’s could experience heightened volatility due to position adjustments and profit-taking on the last day of the second quarter.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD fluctuates within the upper half of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, despite retreating slightly in the first half of the day. On the upside, 1.1730 (static level) aligns as an interim resistance level before 1.1760 (upper limit of the ascending channel) and 1.1800 (static level, round level).

In case EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.1700 (static level, 20-period Simple Moving Average) and flips that level into resistance, 1.1660 (mid-point of the ascending channel) and 1.1620 (static level) could be seen as next support levels.

June 30, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: 1.17 Today, 1.19 Next Target

Foreign exchange analysts at MUFG forecast that the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) will hit selling interest on any gains to 1.19 and retreat to 1.1560 by the end of 2025.

In contrast, Credit Agricole still backs GBP/EUR gains to 1.2050 by the end of the year.

GBP/EUR secured marginal gains during the week, although it failed to hold 2-week highs just above 1.1750 and settled just above 1,1700.

The Pound and Euro both gained net support in global markets from an easing of Middle East tensions and a sustained improvement in risk appetite, liming moves on the cross.

Credit Agricole sees scope for Pound gains on valuation grounds; “We continue to think that EUR/GBP is looking quite overvalued compared to fair value metrics that we estimate based on EUR-GBP rate spread among other drivers. We therefore think that the cross should continue to drift lower in the very near term, especially if risk sentiment continues to recover.

It did, however, add; “That being said, we are also conscious of the risk that a more dovish BoE rhetoric in particular could remain a key downside risk for the GBP.”

Many investment banks have continued to focus on fiscal policy with Germany planning a EUR500bn boost over the next few years.

Deutsche Bank commented; “In the short term, the planned ramp-up in debt-financed spending is remarkably ambitious. The government plans a deficit of more than 3% of GDP as early as this year and almost 4% next year. In light of the front-loading of the fiscal expansion, we raise our growth forecast for 2025 to 0.5%.”

It added; “Not only is the fiscal impulse over this period likely to be more positive than we previously assumed, but the economy is also heading into this fiscal expansion with greater momentum than expected. It would now take a serious exogenous shock or escalation in the trade conflict to scupper the recovery this year.”

The UK, however, is still struggling with fiscal policy with a government U-turn on welfare reform adding to long-term reservations and the risk of further tax increases later in the year.

Monetary policy developments will also remain a key area, especially given the Euro-Zone fiscal boost.

There are strong expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates in August with a further cut before year-end.

Nordea commented; “we think the ECB is done in terms of rate cuts.”

It added; “We do think risks remain tilted towards another cut for now, as many downside risks remain, not least due to trade policy uncertainty. However, trade policy is only part of the story and there are upside risks as well.”

In this context, Nordea also commented on fiscal policy; “A looming boost to growth from public spending and investment due to higher German infrastructure and EU defence spending limits downside risks, but we think also higher energy prices have the potential to reduce the odds of the ECB cutting rates further in the current circumstances.”

According to ING; “We are not major subscribers to the view that the ECB will stay on hold until December (a September cut is underpriced in our view), but admit that the latest hawkish communication means market pricing may not be revised significantly to the dovish side at least for some weeks.”

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• GBP/USD fluctuates at around 1.3700 in the European session on Monday.
• The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum.
• The US economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

GBP/USD corrects lower and trades at around 1.3700 on Monday after gaining about 2% last week. The pair’s technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum in the short term.

GBP/USD rose sharply last week as the risk-positive market atmosphere, on easing geopolitical tensions, and growing concerns over the Federal Reserve (Fed) losing its independence weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD).

Early Monday, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index trades modestly lower on the day, while US stock index futures stay in positive territory. In case markets adopt a cautious stance in the second half of the day, the USD could find a foothold and make it difficult for GBP/USD to gather bullish momentum.

In the meantime, the UK government announced in a press release on Monday that the UK-US trade deal has officially come into force. UK car manufacturers can now export to the US under a reduced 10% tariff quota and the UK aerospace sector will have 10% tariffs on goods like engines and aircraft parts removed.

Later in the session, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will be featured in the US economic calendar, which is unlikely to trigger a noticeable market reaction. It’s important to note that position adjustments and profit-taking on the last day of the first half of the year could ramp up the pair’s volatility toward the end of the European session.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD declined slightly below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator fell below 60, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, 1.3650 (mid-point of the ascending regression channel) aligns as the next support level before 1.3600 (static level, round level) and 1.3560 (100-period SMA). In case GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.3700 and confirms that level as support, 1.3750 (static level, round level) and 1.3810 (upper limit of the ascending channel) could be seen as next resistance levels.