Copper price soars high in its last intraday trading, to reach the critical resistance at $5.89, which represents our yesterday’s target amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a supportive minor bias line for the trend, taking advantage of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, this rise came after the success in offloading its overbought condition on the (RSI), opening the way for achieving more gains.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching the mentioned resistance at $5.89, to target the next resistance level at $6.1820.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7344 and $6.0500

Trend forecast: Bullish

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July 23, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP Tipped to FALL to 1.1365 says UK Bank

After failing to make headway on Monday, the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) has retreated to around 1.1520 on Tuesday.

The latest UK government borrowing requirement has increased concerns over tax hikes in the Autumn as well as unsettling the bond market which has hampered the Pound in global markets.

Equity markets, however, have held firm which has provided some Sterling relief and helped avoid a larger sell-off.

Rabobank is uneasy over UK fundamentals and has a 6-month GBP/EUR forecast of 1.1365.

ING notes that the Pound has not been able to take advantage of more favourable yield spreads which indicates that markets are putting a higher risk premium on the UK currency.

The bank added; “That GBP risk premium is partly because of the euro’s idiosyncratic strength (due to its appeal as a reserve currency) but may also embed some UK budget concerns. Those were fuelled further this morning as the UK unveiled larger borrowing for June than expected by the UK fiscal watchdog.”

The UK government borrowing requirement surged to £20.7bn for June from £14.1bn the previous year. This was above consensus forecasts of £17.4bn and the second-highest June deficit on record.

The deficit was also above the 17.1bn OBR forecast for the month.

For the first three months of fiscal 2025/26, the deficit widened to £57.8bn from £50.3bn the previous year which is close to the OBR target for the first quarter of the year.

Looking at induvial components, debt interest payments more than doubled to £16.4bn from £8.0bn the previous year.

There was an increase in receipts with a big increase in NIC contributions to £17.4bn from £14.3bn, but this was offset by a strong increase in overall spending.

ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys commented; “The rising costs of providing public services and a large rise this month in the interest payable on index-linked gilts pushed up overall spending more than the increases in income from taxes and National Insurance contributions, causing borrowing to rise in June.”

Gilts lost ground after the data with the 10-year yield increasing to 4.63%.

The yield, or interest rate, on 10-year UK bonds has risen by two basis points (0.02 percentage points) to 4.634%.

Longer-dated, 30-year, bond yields have risen by almost three basis points to 5.47% and only 13 basis points below 27-year highs seen in April.

Higher yields will put further upward pressure on debt servicing, increasing the risk of a vicious cycle for the Pound.

The data triggered fresh market fears surrounding the budget outlook and policy implications.

According to Capital Economics UK economist Alex Kerr; “the government’s u-turns on spending cuts and potential upward revisions to the OBR’s borrowing forecasts means the Chancellor will probably need to raise £15-25bn at the Autumn Budget to maintain the £9.9bn of headroom against her fiscal mandate.”

He added; “And given that she is struggling to stick to existing spending plans and we doubt the gilt market will tolerate significant increases in borrowing, she will probably have to raise taxes instead.”

Goldman Sachs added; “We think a rising fiscal risk premium is the main driver of the recent outperformance of EUR/GBP.”

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• EUR/JPY may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 172.15.
• The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating a persistent bullish bias.
• The initial support appears at the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 170.50.

EUR/JPY breaks its five-day winning streak, trading around 171.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The bullish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, strengthening bullish bias. However, the short-term price momentum is weaker as the EUR/JPY cross has moved below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

On the upside, the immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA of 172.15, followed by the fresh yearly high of 173.25, reached on July 16. A break above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and support the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 176.10.

The EUR/JPY cross may approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 170.50. A break below the channel could weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to test the 50-day EMA at 168.50, aligned with monthly low at 168.46.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• GBP/USD trades comfortably above 1.3500 in the European session.
• The risk-positive market atmosphere could help the pair edge higher.
• Markets will keep a close eye on fresh developments surrounding the US trade negotiations.

GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3500 after posting gains on Monday and Tuesday. The improving risk sentiment and the technical outlook suggests that the pair could stretch higher in the near term.

The US Dollar (USD) remained under selling pressure on Tuesday and allowed GBP/USD to build on Monday’s gains. The uncertainty regarding the United States’ trade relations with major partners and the deepening feud between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made it difficult for the USD to find demand.

In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Wednesday, Trump announced that they have completed a “massive deal” with Japan, explaining that Japan will invest $550 billion into the US and pay 15% reciprocal tariffs, down from 25%, to the US. This development triggered a risk rally midweek but the USD managed to keep its footing, with investors seeing the US-Japan trade agreement as a sign of more deals to come.

Reflecting the upbeat market mood, US stock index futures gain between 0.2% and 0.5%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 Index rises about 0.6%. In case risk flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets in the second half of the day, the USD could have a hard time gathering recovery momentum.

Existing Home Sales data for June, which is unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction, will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 70, suggesting that GBP/USD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought.

In case GBP/USD clears the 1.3540-1.3550 resistance area, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), 100-period SMA and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest uptrend are located, technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 1.3600 (static level, round level) and 1.3630 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) could be seen as next resistance levels.

Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.3500 (static level, round level), 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.3450 (50-period SMA).

• EUR/USD trades in negative territory below 1.1750 in the second half of the day.
• The technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.
• Markets await news on EU-US trade talks ahead of the ECB meeting.

Following a bullish opening to the week, EUR/USD corrects lower on Wednesday and trades below 1.1750. Investors await fresh developments on trade negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US).

The US Dollar (USD) holds its ground midweek and causes EUR/USD to stretch lower as market fears over an economic downturn ease on the announcement of a trade deal with Japan. Additionally, US President Donald Trump noted that representatives from the EU will be in the US on Wednesday for the next round of trade negotiations. After losing about 1% in a two-day decline, the USD Index, which measures the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, clings to modest gains at around 97.50.

In case the EU and the US come to terms on trade, the immediate market reaction could be supportive for the USD. However, the currency could have a difficult time gathering further strength if risk flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets in the near term. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.2% and 0.5%, pointing to a bullish opening in Wall Street.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions. Following June’s rate cut, the ECB is widely expected to keep its key rates unchanged after the July meeting.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 60 but EUR/USD holds comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that the bullish stance remains despite losing momentum.

Looking south, the first support level could be seen at 1.1700 (100-period SMA) ahead of 1.1650 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.1630 (200-period SMA). On the upside, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1760 (static level), 1.1800 (static level, round level) and 1.1830 (static level).

Copper price witnessed a strong rise in its last intraday trading, to breach the key resistance at $5.73, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a minor bias line, with the continuation of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the stability of this bullish track, especially with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), despite reaching overbought areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its upcoming intraday trading, if it settles above $5.73, to target the critical resistance level at $5.89.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.65 and $5.89

Trend forecast: Bullish

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Copper price witnessed a strong rise in its last intraday trading, to breach the key resistance at $5.73, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a minor bias line, with the continuation of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the stability of this bullish track, especially with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), despite reaching overbought areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its upcoming intraday trading, if it settles above $5.73, to target the critical resistance level at $5.89.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.65 and $5.89

Trend forecast: Bullish

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High-accuracy trading signals delivered directly to your Telegram. Subscribe to specialized packages tailored for the world’s most important markets – all powered by BestTradingSignal.com .

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Weekly performance report available here: Trading Signal Results – Week of July 14–18, 2025

July 23, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: “GBP Outlook Shifted from Negative to Neutral”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was unable to regain 1.3500 on Tuesday and consolidated around 1.3480 after Monday’s significant recovery.

UoB commented; “The outlook for GBP has shifted from negative to neutral; GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3415 and 1.3535.”

According to Scotiabank; “we see a near-term range bound between 1.3450 support and 1.3520 resistance.”

The latest UK government borrowing data dented Pound sentiment, although the overall impact has been limited at this stage.

Longer-term, Credit Agricole has a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.37 from 1.40 previously.

The June UK budget deficit increased sharply to £20.7bn for June from £14.1bn the previous year, above consensus forecasts of £17.4bn and the second-highest June deficit on record.

One major contributory component was debt interest payments which more than doubled to £16.4bn from £8.0bn the previous year.

Monex commented on the headline data; “These overshot expectations yet again, a fact that should refocus minds on UK fiscal sustainability risks.”

It added; “As we have noted previously, this is not a sterling positive dynamic, leaving risks to the pound tilted to the downside ahead of Thursday’s PMI release.”

Saxo UK investor strategist Neil Wilson expects Autumn tax hikes and is focussing on the bond market reaction.

The 10-year yield has retreated to near 4.61% from earlier highs around 4.65% with the 30-year yield around 5.44%

According to Wilson; “we’re not yet back to yesterday’s highs so nothing to get jumpy about. But I do worry that we could see bond vigilantes hit gilts this autumn.”

Overall financial conditions will be a key element for both the dollar and Pound.

Scotiabank detects some warnings from US equity-market conditions; “it is clear that NYSE market breadth remains pretty poor—fewer stocks are driving broader index gains—which is not a great sign of health and we are right on the cusp of that time of the year when US equities typically hit a bit of an air pocket.”

The relationship between equities and the dollar fluctuates and is complex.

According to Scotiabank; “FX correlations with risk have normalized after an extended period in the spring when the USD tended to weaken with softer USD-denominated assets. But volatility might still be a test for the USD.”

The FTSE 100 index is testing record high, underpinning the Pound for now, but any slide in global equities would pose a threat to the Pound.

US trade developments will continue to be watched closely ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline with a high degree of uncertainty whether the Administration will look to extend deadlines.

Macquarie Group global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman commented; “Nothing that happens on August 1 is necessarily permanent, so long as the U.S. administration remains willing to talk, as was indicated in Trump’s letters from two weeks ago.”

Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics looked at the interest rate implications; “Our base case remains that solid U.S. data and a tariff- driven rebound in inflation will keep the FOMC on hold into 2026, and that the resulting shift in interest rate differentials will drive a continued rebound in the dollar in the next few months”

He added; “But that view is clearly at the mercy of the White House’s whims.”

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According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the value of exports for US-bound motor vehicles plunged 26.7% YoY in June despite actual exports rising 3.4%. Economists attributed the sharp fall in exports to carmakers slashing prices to offset the existing 25% auto tariff.

Notably, transport equipment (including cars) accounted for 22.7% of Japan’s total exports in June, underscoring the significance of the sector for the economy.

Falling export prices impact corporate profit margins, potentially impacting Japan’s labor market. Given the auto sector accounts for around 8% of Japan’s total workforce, sector-wide job losses could weigh on consumer sentiment and spending, further affecting the economy.

A deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop would likely close the door on a 2025 BoJ rate hike. A less hawkish BoJ policy stance could weigh on appetite for the Yen. On the other hand, a favorable trade deal may revive bets on a BoJ rate hike.

BoJ Chatter and Rate Hike Rhetoric in Focus

While trade talks take center stage, traders should monitor BoJ commentary for clues on the effects of tariffs on the rate path. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is slated to speak on Wednesday, July 23. Views on recent inflation numbers, the effect of US tariffs on trade terms, and the timeline for further policy tightening would move the dial.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook: Housing Sector and the US Dollar

Later in the session on Wednesday, US housing sector data will give traders a snapshot of the US economy. Economists forecast monthly existing home sales to fall 0.7% in June after rising 0.8% in May.

The GBPJPY pair rose in its last intraday levels, affected by its lean on the support of minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, gaining positive momentum, accompanied by the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, attempting to surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50, announcing its full recovery.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise of (GBPJPY) in its upcoming intraday trading, if the support settles at 198.70, to target the critical resistance level at 199.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.75 and 199.80

Trend forecast: Bullish