During the trading session on Wednesday, we have seen the euro try to rally against the Japanese yen only to turn around and show signs of weakness again.
By doing so it looks as if the market is trying to sort out where we are going.
But you can see that we just don’t have enough momentum to continue to go to the upside.
The 155 yen level underneath is a large round psychologically significant figure, and it is an area that has been very important for some time. The key question now is whether this support level will hold. Traders are likely viewing this area as a potential buying opportunity for value hunters, making a bounce possible.
However, if the price breaks below the 155 yen level, a significant decline could follow, as this area has historically provided strong support.On a move above the 158 Yen level, then I think the market goes looking at the 160 Yen level, which is where the 50 day EMA currently resides. And of course, it’s also an area where we have seen some significant action in the past.
On a Move Higher
Anything above that level then becomes really bullish. And I think you would probably see the Japanese yen struggling at that point due to the fact that the Bank of Japan, although more hawkish than they once were, the reality is that most central banks around the world still offer quite a bit more in the way of interest rates. Remember, you get paid to hang on to this EUR/JPY pair at the end of every day, although it’s not necessarily the greatest swap, but it is something and that is something that you need to pay attention to over the longer term.
In general, I think we are at a major point of inflection and that needs to be paid attention to as well. And therefore, I will be watching, but I also recognize that you do not want to jump the gun here. You want to have the market tell you which direction it’s going in before putting money into work.
The British Pound has reached a new high in 2025 against the US Dollar, and further gains are possible in the near term.
According to licensed trading companies’ platforms, the GBP/USD exchange rate reached the resistance level of 1.2715, its highest since December 18, amid a steady increase in expectations that the US Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates more than twice in 2025.
Just two weeks ago, the market witnessed a small cut in December 2025, but markets have since added another 30 basis points to expectations amid signs that the US economy is calming down from the strong growth we witnessed at the end of 2025.
Mixed results of US economic data
Recently, according to economic calendar data, new data from the Conference Board showed that US consumer confidence has declined significantly since Trump took office, amid a flurry of political announcements and restructuring. Data showed that confidence in January fell to its lowest level since June of last year, while the expectations index also fell to its lowest level since June. Commenting on this, HSBC analysts said: “The notable weakness in US consumer confidence data has added momentum to the idea that public sector job losses could create a turning point for the US labour market, pushing the economy into recession.”
The analysts added: “This is a very different tone from the generally upbeat nature of the US activity data, which saw the consensus GDP forecast for 2025 rise to an all-time high over the past year. The theme of American exceptionalism may have reached its peak.”
For its part, the Conference Board, commenting on its findings, said: “Pessimism about future employment prospects has deepened and reached a ten-month high.”
Elon Musk’s Policies Threaten US Jobs
The deteriorating US employment outlook coincides with the job purge carried out by Elon Musk in federal institutions under the DOGE program, which seeks to cut spending and make the government more efficient. At the same time, the cost-cutting campaign raises expectations that the Trump administration will achieve its goal of curbing and then reducing the country’s growing debt burden. An early negative side effect of these efforts is weak growth and the end of the US exceptionalism trade, which is inherently deflationary.
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Trading Tips:
The GBP/USD pair rose 2.0% in February 2025 to reverse its trend and overcome the 1.0% decline recorded in January to end four consecutive months of declines and warn against profit-taking after its recent gains.
However, analysts at Berenberg warn that concerns about the US economy are overblown. “We do not believe that the recent negative surprise in macroeconomic data and DOGE-led job cuts justify concerns about US economic growth. We expect the economy to grow above trend in 2025, with the labour market remaining healthy despite slower employment growth,” they said in a special analysis.
They expect total layoffs led by the US Department of Government Efficiency to reach 300,000 by the end of the year, which would reduce non-farm payrolls by up to 30,000 jobs per month. Some experts believe that this should not significantly affect the US labour market. In general, if this is true, the wave of US dollar weakness will break in the coming weeks, suggesting that the GBP/USD rise has its limits.
Upcoming Targets for GBP/USD:
According to recent trades and through the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair maintains positive momentum and there is now room to push towards the resistance levels of 1.2770 and 1.2820, which may be the final target for the current upward rebound. Meanwhile, the technical indicators will then move to strong overbought levels. On the other hand, and in the same time frame, the bears’ success in pushing the currency pair below the support level of 1.2580 is a strong and clear threat to the current upward correction.
Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:
The GBP/USD pair will be affected by the results of a package of US economic data, most notably the announcement of GDP growth, the number of weekly jobless claims, and US durable goods orders. Furthermore, this is in addition to investors’ sentiment regarding risk appetite or not.
Flow/USD currency price (FLOWUSDT) edged lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the downward trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI despite reaching oversold levels, with the price thus readying to pierce the pivotal support of $0.469.
Therefore we expect more losses for the price, provided the aforementioned support of $0.469 was breached, thus targeting the next one at $0.347.
Flow/USD currency price (FLOWUSDT) edged lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the downward trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI despite reaching oversold levels, with the price thus readying to pierce the pivotal support of $0.469.
Therefore we expect more losses for the price, provided the aforementioned support of $0.469 was breached, thus targeting the next one at $0.347.
Natural gas price touched 4.186$ level yesterday followed by surrendering to stochastic intraday negativity, to notice retesting 3.950$ support line and settling above it to confirm keeping the previously suggested bullish bias.
Now, stochastic attempt to gather the positive momentum will increase the chances of rallying towards 4.240$ to form the first target for the current trades, while surpassing it might extend trades towards 4.500$ recorded high direct.
The expected trading range for today is between 3.900$ and 4.240$
The EURJPY pair continued to provide slow sideways trades by fluctuating near 156.20, attempting to gather the additional negative momentum to reinforce the domination of the previously suggested bearish bias.
We assure the importance of holding below 157.35 barrier, noting that succeeding to gather the negative momentum will push the price to decline towards 155.30 level, while breaking it will extend trades towards the next target at 153.90 direct.
The expected trading range for today is between 155.30 and 157.00
Flow/USD currency price (FLOWUSDT) edged lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the downward trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI despite reaching oversold levels, with the price thus readying to pierce the pivotal support of $0.469.
Therefore we expect more losses for the price, provided the aforementioned support of $0.469 was breached, thus targeting the next one at $0.347.
USD to YEN forecast: the outlook for the USD to JPY currency pair is influenced by various economic factors, technical indicators, and market sentiment.
The USD/JPY currency pair is one of the most traded pairs in the foreign exchange market, reflecting the economic dynamics between the United States and Japan. As investors seek to understand the future trajectory of this pair, several factors come into play, including economic indicators, monetary policies, and geopolitical developments. This analysis provides a comprehensive outlook on the USD vs. Yen.
Recent Forex Market Performance
In recent months, the USD/JPY pair has exhibited significant volatility, largely driven by shifts in economic data and central bank policies. The pair has approached critical levels, notably the psychological barrier of 150.00, which has proven challenging to maintain. Recent movements indicate a rebound toward 149.50, primarily influenced by the strengthening US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
USD to YEN Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels: The 150.00 mark remains a key resistance level. A sustained breach above this level could signal further strength for the Dollar. Support Levels: On the downside, support is seen around the 148.65 level. A break below this could trigger further declines, potentially targeting 147.20. Economic Influences US Economic Indicators The performance of the USD is heavily influenced by various economic indicators. Recent data points, such as employment numbers, inflation rates, and consumer spending, play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment.
Inflation and Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are closely tied to inflation data. If inflation remains high, the Fed may continue to implement interest rate hikes, which typically bolster the Dollar. Conversely, signs of weakening inflation could lead to a more dovish stance, weakening the USD. Service Sector Activity: Recent declines in service sector activity have raised concerns about the overall strength of the US economy. If the trend continues, it may prompt the Fed to reconsider its tightening measures, impacting the Dollar’s strength against the Yen.
Japanese Economic Indicators
Japan’s economy also plays a vital role in the USD/JPY outlook. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has historically maintained a loose monetary policy, but recent shifts in inflation dynamics are prompting discussions about potential policy adjustments.
Inflation Trends: Japan has been experiencing rising inflation, prompting speculation about a possible tightening of monetary policy by the BoJ. If the central bank decides to raise interest rates, it could enhance the Yen’s attractiveness to investors, leading to a stronger Yen against the Dollar. Economic Growth: Japan’s GDP growth rates and industrial production figures are critical indicators. Strong economic performance could support the Yen, while any signs of weakness may lead to further Yen depreciation. Technical Analysis Technical indicators provide valuable insights into potential price movements for the USD/JPY pair. Traders often look at patterns, trends, and key indicators to make informed decisions.
Moving Averages and RSI
Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are commonly used to identify trends. A crossover of these averages may indicate a change in momentum. Currently, if the price remains below these averages, it could signal a bearish outlook. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold conditions. A high RSI could suggest a potential pullback in the USD/JPY pair. Price Patterns Patterns such as head and shoulders, flags, and triangles can indicate potential reversals or continuations. Traders should monitor these patterns for clues on future price movements.
Geopolitical Factors Geopolitical developments can significantly impact currency pairs, including USD/JPY. Factors such as trade tensions, military conflicts, and diplomatic relations can create volatility and influence investor sentiment.
US-China Relations The relationship between the US and China remains tense, with trade wars and tariffs impacting global markets. Any significant developments in this area could influence the USD’s performance, as economic uncertainties often lead investors to seek safe-haven currencies like the Yen.
Regional Stability Japan’s geopolitical landscape, including its relationship with neighboring countries and its role in regional security, can also affect the Yen’s value. Increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region may lead to a stronger Yen as investors seek safety.
Future Outlook The future outlook for the USD/JPY pair is shaped by a combination of economic indicators, technical analysis, and geopolitical factors. Here are some key considerations:
Short-Term Projections In the short term, the USD/JPY pair may experience continued volatility as market participants react to upcoming economic data releases and central bank announcements. If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance, the Dollar could strengthen, pushing the pair higher. Conversely, any dovish signals may lead to a pullback.
Long-Term Projections Looking further ahead, the trajectory of the USD/JPY pair will depend on the relative strength of the US and Japanese economies. If the US economy demonstrates resilience and inflation remains elevated, the Dollar may maintain its strength. However, if Japan’s economy shows signs of recovery and the BoJ shifts toward tightening, the Yen could appreciate against the Dollar.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair is multifaceted, influenced by economic indicators, technical analysis, and geopolitical developments. As the market navigates these variables, investors should stay informed and monitor key levels, economic data, and central bank policies to make well-informed trading decisions. The interplay between the US and Japanese economies will continue to shape the future of this vital currency pair.
When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.
Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
The euro continues to see a lot of upward pressure on Tuesday, but at this point in time, the market continues to see a lot of selling pressure above the 1.05 level.
This is an area that we would see a lot of trouble at, which has been the case so far.
Ultimately, the market continues to see a lot of questions asked about the US dollar, and of course the euro, as the European Union continues to struggle with the overall economic conditions, and of course the war in Ukraine.
The technical analysis for the pair EUR/USD continues to look sideways, but short term bullish. The area that we are testing has been important more than once, as the barrier could very well stretch all the way to the 1.06 level above. The 200 Day EMA is roughly in that area as well, as this is a situation that would cause a lot of attention in the markets and the financial websites.
On the other hand, if the market were to break below the 50 Day EMA, then the market could drop to the 1.03 level, possibility even the 1.02 level. This is an area that will continue to be an area where a lot of people are watching, as a break below there would be a sign that the euro could very well drop to the parity level.
In that situation, the US dollar would probably be getting stronger against almost everything as far as the currencies are concerned. This would be a market wide phenomenon, and you would obviously be aware of this.
On the other hand, if we were to break above that crucial 1.06 level, and the 200 Day EMA, I would be looking at the EUR/USD pair travelling all the way to the 1.10 level, an area that has been important more than once as well. Ultiamtely, I think this isn’t likely, but it is a potential possibility if things line up correctly.
It’s been quite a wild day during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have been all over the place going back and forth in the British pound against the Japanese yen as the market tries to determine risk on or risk off.
The 190 yen level of course is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to, as it is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that has been support more than once, so therefore you would have to assume there’s a certain amount of market memory in this area as well. All of that being said, the fact that we initially rallied, then turned around and plunged, only to turn around and show signs of resiliency again, suggests to me that we are building up inertia for a bigger move.
The question of course is going to be where does the market go from here? What is that bigger move going to look like? If we can break above the 190 yen level, then I become bullish, at least for the time being, and the market could go looking at the 50 day EMA right around the 192 yen level. On the other hand, if we break down below the lows of the last couple of days, basically 188 yen, we could go down to the 185 yen level as well.
This is a market that I think is going to be very sensitive to everything else that’s going on around the world right now, which is basically chaos. So, I think you continue to see a lot of volatility, but what you need to see is some type of impulsive candlestick that you can follow. For example, a nice big positive candlestick that closes above 190 yen would do wonders for my confidence of the market recapturing the upside. Of course, I can say the same thing if we break down and get a significantly negative candlestick that breaks the 188 yen level. Short-term traders will probably look at this through a range-bound lens, but those of us who are a little bit more like swing traders it’s a market that’s building up inertia. You just want to follow whatever direction it breaks.
