Shifting to the US labor market and consumer sentiment, initial jobless claims and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index also need consideration.

A spike in jobless claims and a fall in consumer sentiment could indicate weaker wage growth and spending. A pullback in consumer spending may soften demand-driven inflationary pressures. However, another drop in claims and improving sentiment may delay Fed rate cuts.

A more hawkish Fed may push USD/JPY toward 150, while dovish signals could trigger a drop toward 145.

Short-term Forecast:

In the coming week, USD/JPY trends will hinge on:

• Japan’s Economic Data: Wage growth and inflation remain crucial for the BoJ rate path.
• US Reports: Inflation, labor market, and consumer sentiment to affect Fed rate cut bets
• Geopolitical risks: US tariff developments could impact market sentiment.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

After last week’s declines, the USD/JPY sits well below the 50-day and the 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

A USD/JPY break above the 149.358 resistance level would support a return to 150. A breakout from 150 could enable the bulls to target the 200-day and 50-day EMAs.

Conversely, a break below last week’s low of 146.935 could signal a drop toward 145. A fall through 145 would bring the 140.309 support level into sight.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.86 indicates a USD/JPY fall below 147 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

March 9, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: 2 Factors Could Drive Additional Gains Over Next 1-3 Months

The US Dollar (USD) has remained firmly on the defensive versus the Pound Sterling (GBP) in global markets while the Euro (EUR) has made further net gains following German plans to unlock a huge fiscal stimulus.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has posted fresh 4-month highs just above 1.2930.

The US jobs data is likely to be pivotal in determining whether GBP/USD can test the 1.30 level today.

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is close to 5-week lows just above the 1.1900 level amid a Euro surge.

According to Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank, “It’s all to do with the broad-based euro optimism that we’ve seen with this shift in fiscal policy in Germany.”

ING added on the Euro, “A major re-rating is underway.”

Economic data and the equity market performance is likely to be crucial for the dollar.

President Trump made further concessions to Canada and Mexico on Thursday, but there are increased fears that the uncertainty and frequent policy changes will undermine confidence in the economy.

The US will release the latest employment data on Friday.

Consensus forecasts are for an increase in non-farm payrolls around 160,000 for February with the unemployment rate holding at 4.0%.

Markets are, however, expecting a soft set of data even though the rash of government firings will not yet show up in the data.

ING commented, “Some fear that weather plus changes in government education funding will be a drag on the headline number. However, the impact of the DOGE government job cuts may not emerge for another couple of months.”

According to MUFG, “Given the depreciation of the dollar is down to a shift in relative macro expectations in part due to weak economic data from the US, a weak payrolls report today would certainly further extend dollar losses and harden the view that the FOMC will cut sooner than expected.”

The ECB cut interest rates on Thursday but added an extra element with comments that policy is now much less restrictive.

In this context, there were doubts whether there would be a further cut in April.

ING commented, “A pause at the next meeting to come to terms with the new macro reality now looks like a possibility.”

EUR/USD has hit 4-month highs around 1.0870 amid the Euro surge. Further gains would provide a tailwind for GBP/USD.

According to Danske Bank, “While EUR optimism from increased fiscal spending may now be largely priced in, potential catalysts such as a ceasefire deal in Ukraine or a further deterioration in the US cyclical macro outlook – especially the latter – could drive additional gains in the pair over the next 1-3M.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

I wrote on 2^nd March that the GBP/NZD currency pair would likely fall in value. Unfortunately, it rose in value by 0.71%.

Last week saw several data releases affecting the Forex market:

1. US Average Hourly Earnings – a month-on-month increase of 0.3% as expected.
2. ECB Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement – the rate cut of 0.25% was widely expected, but the ECB cut its growth forecast which could be seen as a small dovish surprise.
3. US Non-Farm Employment Change – this was just a little less than expected.
4. US ISM Services PMI – slightly better than expected.
5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI – almost exactly as expected.
6. Australian GDP – as expected.
7. Swiss CPI (Inflation) – the month-on-month increase was 0.6%, slightly higher than the widely expected 0.5%.
8. US Unemployment Claims – just a little less than expected.
9. US Unemployment Rate – this unexpectedly increase from 4.0% to 4.1%.
10. Canadian Unemployment Rate – this was expected to tick higher, but it stayed at 6.6%.

Last week’s key takeaways were:

1. The data outlined above was inconsequential for the markets, which are much more concerned with the US-centered trade war which seems to be underway without a clear end.
2. The ongoing trade war between the USA on one side and Canada, Mexico, China and potentially the European Union on the other is what has really been driving market movements over the past week. There is no deal in sight and the new tariffs remain in place, causing economic harm to all three countries.
3. It was a bad week for stock markets, especially in the USA, where major indices dropped sharply enough to shake out more trend followers from long positions, with many institutions either reducing or eliminating their exposure. Friday saw some gains, however.
4. Market sentiment is basically in risk-off mode, with commodities and commodity currencies taking a serious beating. Even Gold, which had been holding up relatively well, has not been able to reach a new high.
5. In the Forex market, the Euro made very strong gains, while the US Dollar was weak.
6. There are concerns that the USA may be starting to tip into recession after the Atlanta Fed data suggested GDP could be running at an annualized decline of 2.4%.
7. President Trump announced the creation of a strategic crypto reserve for the USA, also stating he wanted to see stablecoin legislation passed by the end of this summer. This gave crypto a temporary boost, but major cryptocurrencies quickly gave up all gains as it was realized the US government would still not be purchasing crypto.

The coming week has a lighter schedule of important releases, so we are likely to see less volatility in the Forex market over the coming week.

This week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US CPI (inflation)
2. US PPI
3. US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
4. Bank of Canada Overnight Rate & Rate Statement
5. US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
6. US JOLTS Job Openings
7. UK GDP

For March 2025, I made no forecast, as there were no clear trends at the start of this month.

Last week, I forecasted that the following currency cross would fall in value over the week:

• GBP/NZD – rose by 0.71%

This was not a profitable call.

This week, I forecast that the following currency crosses will fall in value:

The Euro was the strongest major currency last week, while the US Dollar was the weakest, putting the EUR/USD currency pair in focus. Volatility increased last week, with 70% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. It is likely to remain at a similar level over the coming week, despite the lighter agenda, due to US inflation data due, and the ongoing trade war.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed the largest weekly bearish candlestick in almost 2.5 years. The Dollar was the worst performing major currency last week and suffered a big loss, closing back within its dominant recent range and well below its level from 3 months ago, invalidating its former long-term bullish trend. At one point, the price reached a new 4-month low.

These are bearish signs, although there is some lower wick suggesting a little buying at the low.

Global markets have entered a strongly risk-off mode, but the greenback does not benefit because of the uncertain trade war the US is now engaged in against Canada, Mexico, and China, with no end in sight.

Trades taken over the coming week will probably be best positioned against the US Dollar, at least until a deal is announced replacing reciprocal import tariffs involving the USA.

The EUR/USD currency pair made a huge gain over the week, rising by more than 4%, which is unusual. The key driver is certainly the US-centered trade war, which has sent the greenback flying lower, while the Euro has gained as a store of value.

Although the European Central Bank met last week and gave a slightly dovish report, as well as cutting rates by 0.25%, that was not enough to weaken the Euro at all.

Despite the strong bullish move, the daily price chart below shows that the bulls may have run out of steam towards the end of last week, with the final two daily candlesticks close to looking like bearish pin bars. Another factor is the tight cluster of resistance levels overhead which are confluent with a major bearish inflection point near the major round number at $1.1000.

Another bearish factor is that the moving averages are misaligned: although the price has made a bullish breakdown to new multi-month highs, the 50-day moving average is still below the 100-day moving average, and this is often used as a filter by successful trend traders, suggesting we are most likely to see a bearish reversal.

I caution traders positioned long here to think about exiting and suggest that other traders consider a short trade, if and when we get a reversal from a key resistance level.

The USD/JPY currency pair fell last week to trade at a new 5-month low. Trend traders would have got signals to go short here last week but this was stopped by one key filter still saying no short trade: the 50-day moving average remains above the 100-day moving average.

Note how the price rejected the low of the week Friday and the support level at ¥147.84 with a bullish pin bar. This is certainly not decisive, but until the price makes a stronger fall and erases that low with a strongly bearish close, it will be unwise to go short. Also, the moving averages need to cross.

The US Dollar is very weak due to the US-centered trade war, and the Japanese Yen typically benefits in this kind of risk-off situation where the greenback cannot. The Yen also has a tailwind as Japanese wage inflation is clearly rising and the Bank of Japan seems set to implement meaningful rate hikes for the first time since 2008.

The S&P 500 Index fell strongly last week and reached a level nearly 8% below its record high which was made barely more than 2 weeks ago. The main reason for the strong drop in most global stock markets, and the major US indices in particular, is of course the large tariffs President Trump has imposed on US imports from Canada and Mexico, and the fact that neither country seems close to capitulating or to make the kind of deal President Trump would want to call off the tariffs. The US tariffs are just negotiation by another means.

Technically, what is most interesting here is that the price on Thursday and Friday traded below the 200-day moving average, which is drawn within the daily price chart below. This indicator is used to establish a technical bear market, and it is interesting we have not yet had a daily close below it. This suggests that this moving average may be acting as a mobile pivotal point. If the price keeps refusing to close below it, we may see the start of another bullish rally, and if a tariff deal were then concluded, that would give a big tailwind to any bullish push.

Personally, as a trend trader, I will not be entering any new long trades until we see the price make a new record high, and that might not happen for quite a long time.

It was a poor week for commodities generally, with the possible exception of Gold, which mostly traded not far away from its recent all-time high just above $2,950.

One of the very few exceptions is Natural Gas. The nearest futures contract of Henry Hub natural gas rose during last week to make a new 2-year high and ended the week not far from that.

So, what is driving Natural Gas higher? Most analysts see it as a combination of extreme cold weather, seasonality, and strong demand plus weak supply.

March can be a pretty cold month in the Northern Hemisphere, and the cold can even stretch into April, so there is reason to believe this long-term bullish trend might continue for a while longer yet.

If you are worried about the generally poor environment for commodities and start of the spring season later this month, you could pass on this long trade or take an unusually small position.

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of Natural Gas futures.
2. Short of the EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD currency crosses.

Ready to trade our Forex weekly forecast? Check out our list of the top 10 Forex brokers in the world .

• The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a rebound in the pound.

• US Job growth slowed down slightly in February.

• The US unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%. 

The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a rebound in the pound as the dollar drops amid soft NFP and tariff uncertainty.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD 

The GBP/USD price had a bullish week as the pound soared against a weak dollar. The greenback collapsed as market participants grew fearful of a US economic slowdown. On Tuesday, Trump implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Although he suspended some of these tariffs, traders worried that trade wars would hurt the US economy. 

–Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide-

Meanwhile, Fed rate cut expectations increased after US nonfarm payrolls came in lower than expected. Job growth slowed down slightly. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%. More downbeat data next week could push traders to start pricing three rate cuts this year.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD

Next week, the US will release its CPI and PPI reports, showing the state of inflation. Meanwhile, the UK will release data on manufacturing production and gross domestic product. The inflation data will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Economists expect inflation to ease from the previous month. Such an outcome would align with recent data showing a slowdown in the US economy. Therefore, it would increase Fed rate cut expectations, boosting GBP/USD. 

Meanwhile, UK data will show the health of the UK economy and shape the outlook for Bank of England monetary policy. 

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls meet the 0.618 Fib hurdle

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 1.2800 key resistance level. This move has pushed the price far above the 22-SMA, with the RSI in the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. 

–Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide-

The price recently reversed after a strong downtrend. Since the reversal, bulls have maintained their position above the 22-SMA, constantly reaching new highs. However, the current high has fallen near the 0.618 Fib retracement level. This might act as a solid resistance. Therefore, GBP/USD might pull back to retest the recently broken 1.2800 key level. A deeper pullback would retest the 22-SMA.

However, as long as the price stays above the SMA and the RSI above 50, the bullish trend will continue. Therefore, GBP/USD might reach the 1.3201 resistance level.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.

Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.

Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.

(MENAFN– Daily Forex) My previous GBP/USD signal on 24^th February was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level at $1.2621 was first reached. Today’s GBP/USD SignalsRisk 0.75%.Trades may only be taken before 5pm London timeTop Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2877, $1.2803, or $1.2761.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2923, $1.2948, or $1.3000.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic“price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar , a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels/USD AnalysisI wrote in my previous GBP/USD forecast on Monday last week that the price was looking weakly bullish, if the support level at $1.2621 held.The support level did not hold that day, and the action was marginally bearish, so it was an accurate call although not very useful.The technical picture has changed dramatically, although it was in line with an earlier dominant trend which was relative strength in the British Pound. Over the past few days, ever since the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US Dollar has weakened, and the British Pound has been a primary beneficiary from that due the Pound’s residual strength.The price has risen very strongly over the past few days and is continues to reach new 3-month highs. The price is not far from a 4-month high.Despite trading bullishly in blue sky, this bullish run has a temporary feel to it, as it is driven by policies which can be reversed in an instant, which could send the price flying lower quickly.It makes sense to take advantage of the bullish momentum here, although the run may be over-extended by now.I would look for a long scalp from a bullish bounce at the nearest support level of $1.2877.There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the GBP. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm.EURUSD Chart by TradingViewReady to trade our daily Forex signals ? Here is our list of the best Forex brokers worth checking out.

MENAFN08032025000131011023ID1109291291

• The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a decline in ECB rate cut expectations.

• The European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected.

• Market participants are awaiting the US NFP report.

The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a decline in ECB rate cut expectations after the central bank upgraded its inflation forecasts. As a result, the euro has extended gains to reach new highs. Meanwhile, market participants waited eagerly for the US monthly employment report, which will guide the outlook for Fed rate cuts. 

–Are you interested in learning more about making money with forex? Check our detailed guide-

On Thursday, the European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. However, the euro rose after the central bank projections revealed an upgrade in the inflation outlook. Policymakers projected inflation at 2.3% this year, compared to the last forecast of 2.1%. As a result, market participants slashed bets for more ECB rate cuts. Currently, traders expect only two more cuts this year. 

Furthermore, optimism about Germany’s new spending plans kept the euro in high spirits. A 50 billion euro fund will likely boost growth in the Eurozone. However, it might also lead to a spike in inflation that would cause the ECB to assume a more cautious stance. 

Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile as ongoing trade wars dimmed the outlook for the economy. At the same time, market participants expect the US NFP report to shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts.

EUR/USD key events today

• US average hourly earnings m/m
• US nonfarm employment change
• US unemployment rate
• Fed Chair Powell Speaks

EUR/USD technical price analysis: RSI indicates exhaustion

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has bounced higher, continuing the bullish rally. The price still trades far above the 30-SMA with the RSI in the overbought region. However, the RSI has made a slight bearish divergence, a sign that bulls are getting exhausted. 

–Are you interested in learning more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide-

Therefore, the price might pause for a deeper pullback at the next resistance level. The next hurdle is at the 1.0901 level. If the bullish trend pauses at this level, the price will likely drop to retest the 1.0701 level as support. This might coincide with the 30-SMA. If this support zone holds firm, bulls will seek new highs above the 1.0901 level. 

However, if the price breaks below the support, it will indicate a bearish shift in sentiment, allowing EUR/USD to fall back to the 1.0500 key support level.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

• The Pound Sterling extended its march north past 1.2900 vs. the Greenback. 
• GBP/USD entered its second consecutive month of gains.
• The Bank of England is expected to maintain its cautious stance.

The British pound (GBP) maintained its constructive bias well in place this week, motivating GBP/USD to extend its recovery north of 1.2900 the figure, an area last visited in early November.

The strong move higher in Cable came almost exclusively on the back of the firm and persistent selling impulse in the US Dollar (USD), which remained at the mercy of the White House’s alternating mood regarding the implementation of tariffs.

Also underpinning the solid tone around the sterling, 10-year gilt yields rose to multi-week lows near the 4.80% level, running out of some steam afterwards.

European optimism helps GBP

Extra support for the British pound also came in the form of a generalised improvement in the sentiment on the old continent, which was particularly exacerbated following the pathetic meeting between President Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White Hose.

Indeed, European leaders have united in support of Ukraine, aiming to secure a peace agreement, and have committed to significantly boosting defence spending amid shifting United States (US) priorities under President Donald Trump.

Furthermore, around $1 trillion in new investments—fueled by Germany’s landmark shift in fiscal policy to free up spending on defence and infrastructure, along with increased joint borrowing by the European Union—has dramatically revitalized investor confidence in the region.

Tariff concerns cloud the outlook

In light of the incipient trade war, Megan Greene, a member of the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), noted that there was uncertainty about the extent to which the United States would implement tariffs and how other countries would respond.

She explained that tariffs could affect the United Kingdom (UK) economy in various ways. Greene stated that if tariffs were imposed on UK goods destined for the US, they would “put downward pressure” on the economy by making it harder for firms to sell to American consumers, although such tariffs might also help lower inflation.

She warned that if supply chains fragmented and had to be reorganized, it would likely hinder UK growth and push inflation higher. Ultimately, Greene asserted that tariffs would depress growth and emphasized the “tonne of uncertainty” surrounding President Trump’s tariff policy, suggesting that the negative impacts on UK economic activity would probably outweigh any potential benefits.

Professor Alan Taylor, also a committee member, concurred by indicating that the risks posed by the tariffs outweighed the upsides—a sentiment he said applied not only to the UK but to countries around the world.

It is worth noting that the United States is the UK’s largest export partner, accounting for more than 15% of all goods exports.

A more prudent Bank of England

Following the February rate cut, BoE policymakers remained cautious regarding the potential next steps by the “Old Lady”.

At this week’s Treasury Select Hearing on the February Monetary Policy Report, Governor Andrew Bailey said that Britain’s weakening economy had reduced the likelihood that an anticipated rise in headline inflation this year would result in persistent price pressures.

MPC member Megan Greene stated that the disinflationary trend was probably on track, adding that tariffs would likely weigh on overall growth, though their impact on UK inflation remained unclear.

Finally, Chief Economist Huw Pill remarked that current evidence suggested caution regarding rapid cuts in the Bank Rate, but he acknowledged that further disinflation could enable additional rate reductions later in the year. He also noted that the size and pace of rate cuts would depend on how inflation risks evolved.

Finally, BoE policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday that although a near-term increase in inflation was unlikely to cause lasting price issues, she still believed monetary policy should remain restrictive.

On another front, the latest Decision Maker Panel (DMP) revealed that companies anticipate minimal employment growth—just 0.1%—over the coming 12 months. At the same time, businesses now foresee consumer prices rising slightly faster, with inflation expectations nudging up to 3.1% in the three months to February. Firms also indicated they’ll hike their own prices by 4.0%, marking a slight acceleration from previous estimates.

All in all, the swaps market anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts over the coming year.

GBP/USD: Technical view

Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FX Street, notes: “GBP/USD is gearing up for another push higher, with  2025 high of 1.2944 (March 7) squarely in its sights. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a run at the psychologically significant 1.3000 mark, followed by a test of the November 2024 peak at 1.3047.”

Piovano adds: “On the downside, the 200-day SMA at 1.2787 should offer decent contention ahead of the provisional 100-day SMA at 1.2624. Down from here lies the weekly low of 1.2558 (February 28) and the interim 55-day SMA at 1.2491. Deeper pullbacks would put the February low of 1.2248 (February 3), the 2025 bottom at 1.2099 (January 13), and the weekly low of 1.2069 (October 26) into focus.”

“Meanwhile, the daily RSI remains in overbought territory beyond 71, hinting that the pair may be due for a corrective breather before any sustained move higher. The Average Directional Index (ADX) picked up pace and approached 23, showing some strengthening of the current trend”, Piovano concludes.