• The USD/CAD forecast indicates a growing likelihood that Trump’s tax bill will be passed into law.

• Traders are pricing a 67% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

• Market participants are pricing a 27% chance of a BoC rate cut in June.

The USD/CAD forecast indicates a growing likelihood that Trump’s tax bill will be passed into law, increasing the US government’s debt and hurting the dollar. Meanwhile, in Canada, BoC rate cut expectations have fallen significantly, supporting the loonie. 

–Are you interested in learning more about buying NFT tokens? Check our detailed guide-

The US dollar fell on Thursday and Friday after Trump’s tax bill passed through the House of Representatives. This development increased US fiscal health worries, prompting investors to dump US assets. On Monday, Moody’s cut the US government’s credit rating due to its growing debt. The move hurt investor confidence. If Trump’s bill passes, it will increase the government’s debt, further shaking confidence in the economy. 

Furthermore, the fiscal worries overshadowed a report on Thursday showing an improvement in US business activity. Fed policymakers are still cautiously watching incoming data for signs of weakness after Trump’s tariffs. Downbeat economic data will increase pressure on the central bank to lower borrowing costs. At the moment, traders are pricing a 67% chance of a cut in September. 

Meanwhile, BoC rate cut bets continued falling after Canada’s hotter-than-expected core inflation figures. Market participants are pricing a 27% chance of a rate cut in June, meaning there is a higher likelihood of a pause. However, policymakers will keep studying incoming data. 

USD/CAD key events today

• Canada core retail sales m/m
• Canada retail sales m/m

USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.3800 support level

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has continued its slide after breaking out of its triangle pattern. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, while the RSI is nearing the oversold region. This shows the bearish bias is strong. 

–Are you interested in learning more about forex robots? Check our detailed guide-

After the breakout, the price paused its decline to make a lower high. At the moment, bears have returned and are about to break below the previous low. Such a move would strengthen the bearish bias. Moreover, a strong move could push the price below the 1.3800 level, confirming a new downtrend.

On the other hand, if the 1.3800 support holds firm, the price might bounce to retest the 1.3900 resistance level. Still, the bearish bias will hold if the price remains below the 30-SMA.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Copper price began today’s trading with a new positivity by surpassing the barrier at $4.6600, announcing its readiness to activate the bullish track in the current period, the unionism of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will reinforce the chances for achieving several gains, to reach the initial target at $4.7500, to press on 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100.

Note that activating the negative track requires forming a sharp decline, to settle below $4.5000 level, to confirm targeting several negative stations that begin at $4.4300 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6100 and $4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish

May 23, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling “Mid Performer” Following US, UK PMIs

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was rangebound on Thursday following the release of the US’s and UK’s preliminary S&P Global PMIs.

At the time of writing, GBPUSD was trading at approximately $1.3425, virtually unchanged from the start of Thursday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) advanced against most major peers on Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected PMI data for May.

Fresh figures from S&P Global revealed an uptick in both the manufacturing and services sectors, surprising markets who had projected a slowdown.

Manufacturing activity jumped to 52.3, defying expectations of a decline to 50.1, while the services PMI also rose to 52.3, indicating a broad-based expansion.

Commenting on the data, S&P’s Chris Williamson noted an encouraging rebound in business sentiment, crediting the easing of tariff pressures for lifting outlooks.

The upbeat economic data boosted confidence in the US economy and helped lift the ‘Greenback’ against a range of currencies, although gains against the Pound were more limited.

Sterling traded steadily on Thursday, and even rose against several of its counterparts, following the release of the UK’s latest PMI readings for May.

Although manufacturing activity remained in contraction, with the index edging down to 45.1, the services sector surprised to the upside.

The services PMI climbed back above the 50 threshold, exceeded economists’ expectations by hitting 50.2, and signalled a return to modest growth.

This glimpse of resilience in the UK’s dominant services industry offered some reassurance to markets, helping the Pound maintain its footing during Thursday’s European session.

“GBP is down 0.2% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10, trading relatively well despite a generally disappointing preliminary PMI release. The manufacturing print disappointed with a relatively deep contractionary print of 45.1 while services climbed just above the expansion threshold, printing 50.2.” – Scotiabank

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate could come under pressure on Friday, with investors eyeing the UK’s latest retail sales data for direction.

April’s figures are expected to indicate a slowdown in consumer activity, with sales growth forecast to ease from 0.4% to 0.2%.

Any downside surprise could sour sentiment towards Sterling by fuelling concerns about the UK economy.

Meanwhile, with a quiet end to the week for US economic releases, the spotlight may shift to a scheduled speech from a Federal Reserve policymaker.

If the remarks lean dovish, the US Dollar could extend its recent losses, adding another layer of volatility to the currency pair heading into the weekend.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

In today’s session, USD/JPY trades 0.03% higher, having fallen below the key level of 144.000 courtesy of a weaker dollar, increased safe-haven demand, and a narrowing interest rate differential.

USD/JPY Key Takeaways

• Primarily due to a fall in dollar value, USD/JPY currently trades at around ~144.058, representing two-week lows for the currency pair
• Renewed tariff fears, geopolitical tensions, and general uncertainty on the US economy are allowing the Japanese yen to strengthen against the U.S. dollar

USD/JPY: Yen benefits from renewed safe-haven flows

With global equities somewhat wobbly this week, markets have made a notable shift towards yen strength, renewing demand for typical safe-haven assets.

Compounded by a credit rating downgrade on U.S. sovereign debt last week, nervousness surrounding US trade policy and the latest developments on Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ tax bill have done little to calm market nerves, with questions rising on how the current administration will address a ballooning US deficit and rising interest costs.

At least in part, the outcome has been a weaker dollar, with USD/JPY trading around ~1.09% lower in this week’s trading.

USD/JPY: Tide turning on Japanese bond yields

Snoynmous with ultra-low interest rates for the best part of 20 years, the Bank of Japan’s change in monetary policy, bookmarked by the appointment of Kazuo Ueda, represents a profound shift in perception for the Japanese economy, and by extension, the yen.

At least one outcome has been rising Japanese bond yields, with longer-dated treasuries gaining value massively under the new monetary policy outlook. Recently, the 30-year yield hit a 25-year high of ~3.2%, while the 40-year yield reached over ~3.5%, its highest point since inception in 2007.

With the differential between US and Japanese treasuries becoming increasingly narrow, the dollar is becoming less attractive to hold, especially when considering the stark difference in current predictions on future monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, respectively.

Worsened by a continuing unwinding of the infamous yen carry trade, any further reduction in the yield differential between US and Japanese treasuries will likely encourage further USD/JPY downside.

USD/JPY: Increased US rate cut bets weaken dollar-yen exchange rate

With markets currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts and one Bank of Japan rate hike before year-end, the attractiveness of holding the dollar over the yen, at least by some metrics, is set to be reduced.

While the latest US data shows inflation cooling faster than first predicted, Japanese inflation remains stubborn, further cementing current monetary policy predictions.

Further commitment to this narrowing interest rate differential trajectory, whether in policy decisions or general commentary, will likely lead to further USD/JPY downside.

A chart showing the recent price action of USD/JPY. OANDA,TradingView, 22/05/2024

USD/JPY technical analysis

• Breaking a 6-day losing streak in today’s session, USD/JPY remains bearish at a technical level. Decisively breaking the key level of 145.000 earlier this week, bears will likely target previous lows at ~142.384 in price breaks down further

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, weak housing data, or dovish Fed rhetoric could drag USD/JPY toward 142.5.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Positive trade developments, stronger housing data, or hawkish Fed cues may lift USD/JPY toward 145 and potentially the 50-day EMA.

See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.

AUD/USD in Focus: US-China Trade News in Spotlight

On May 23, US-China trade developments and policy news from Beijing will influence AUD/USD trends. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently underscored the threat of a trade war. She stated on May 20 that such conflict could push Australia into recession. She also warned:

“Australia’s economy could easily be compromised if a trade war between the US and China escalates… The market path is reflecting a possibility of a really bad outcome, pointing to a lower RBA cash rate.”

Renewed US-China tensions could impact Aussie dollar demand on recession fears, dragging AUD/USD lower. However, Beijing may counter with fresh stimulus, targeting domestic demand and consumption. Improving demand may drive AUD/USD higher, given China accounts for one-third of Aussie exports and Australia’s high trade-to-GDP ratio.

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Renewed US-China friction, Beijing’s silence on stimulus, or dovish RBA cues may send AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.63623 support level.
• Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: De-escalation in US-China trade tensions, Beijing stimulus, or hawkish RBA signals could drive the pair above the 200-day EMA toward the May 14 high of $0.65008.

Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.

Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: Fed Impact and Home Sales Data

The USD side of the equation will also influence AUD/USD later today. Weak US housing data may boost Fed rate cut bets, narrowing the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the AUD. A more dovish Fed could send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA toward $0.6450 and the May 7 high of $0.65144. On the other hand, strong data may widen the rate differential, dragging AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.63623 support level.

May 22, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: “Trend in GBPUSD Remains Bullish”

US Dollar exchange rates have remained under pressure in global markets with ongoing fears surrounding US fiscal policy, especially with the Big Beautiful Budget Bill approved in the House of Representatives.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) dipped to just below 1.3400 before a recovery to 1.3420.

According to Scotiabank, “With investor focus on US fiscal policy intensifying amid US budget negotiations, the performance of US Treasury bonds will likely continue to influence the USD and risk appetite.”

The Pound has not been able to take full advantage of dollar weakness due to reservations surrounding the UK budget position with weaker risk appetite and a fresh increase in UK bond yields also hampering Sterling.

According to Scotiabank; “The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish, with consolidation just below Wednesday’s multi-year high. The RSI is just below 60, leaving ample room for further near-term gains.”

A sustained break above 1.3450 would lead to an initial target of 1.35, but is likely to be dependent on further dollar losses.

According to ING “the USD can find some support, but a sustained recovery looks unlikely.”

The dollar initially came under pressure in Wednesday’s New York session.

There was a weak 20-year bond auction which triggered fresh concerns over the outlook and there was a sharp decline in Treasuries with a jump in yields.

MUFG commented; “The auction has basically resulted in another day of triple selling of US assets which will only reinforce the doubts over confidence in US assets.”

Just ahead of Thursday’s New York open, the House of Representatives approved the Budget Bill and it will now head to the Senate.

The 10-year yield moved sharply higher to a 3-month high above 4.60% after the Bill was approved by a 215-214 vote with equity futures also sliding.

Unease is likely to be magnified by last-minute changes to Bill which puts further upward pressure on deficits and debt.

MUFG added; “Nearly all of the S&P’s drop yesterday (-1.6%) came in response to the auction and underlines the increasing sensitivity of investors risk appetite to bad news for US Treasuries and underlines the risks being taken by the Trump administration in relation to the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’.

Domestically, the April borrowing requirement increased to £20.2bn for April from £19.2bn the previous year

RSM economist Thomas Pugh commented; “With the public finances in a pretty dire state going into what is likely to be a much tougher Q2 and second half of the year for the economy, some fiscal consolidation in October, probably in the form of higher taxes, looks likely.”

The UK 10-year yield has moved above the 4.80% level to 6-week highs and is not far below January highs which will increase fears over debt interest payments, the deficit and wider damage to the economy.

Citi commented; “GBP has outperformed on relatively more hawkish BoE market pricing and trade deals with the EU and US; however, we suspect any increase in term premium risk that spills into the Gilt market can quickly see GBP weakness, especially as fiscal issues remain unresolved in the UK keeping term premium elevated.”

The CBI industrial trends survey retreated to -30 for May from -26 previously while PMI data was mixed with on-going manufacturing weakness, but a limited recovery in services.

Commerzbank Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann commented; “Cable did gain ground yesterday, but this was more a USD story than GBP-driven. The strong inflation figures did not help against the Euro or the G10 average. For me, this means that for the pound to continue to gain ground across the board in the coming days and weeks, something new will have to happen.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Upward.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Support Levels: 1.1290 – 1.1230 – 1.1180.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1385 – 1.1455 – 1.1520.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy Euro-Dollar from the 1.1255 support level with a target of 1.1440 and a stop-loss of 1.1180.
• Sell Euro-Dollar from the 1.1410 resistance level with a target of 1.1150 and a stop-loss of 1.1500.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

The continued weakness of the US dollar in the forex markets allowed EUR/USD bulls to complete the upward trajectory, culminating in a move towards the resistance level of 1.1362, the pair’s highest level in two weeks. Concurrently, the pair is stabilizing around its gains ahead of the announcement of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for the manufacturing and services sectors for the Eurozone and US economies. The European readings will begin with France at 10:15 AM Cairo time, followed by the German readings a quarter of an hour later, concluding with the Eurozone readings as a whole at 11:00 AM Cairo time.

US manufacturing and services PMI readings will be announced at 2:45 PM EEST. Prior to that, weekly US unemployment claims will be released. Overall, the results of these economic data will have a strong and direct impact on the performance of the EUR/USD pair, determining whether the week closes higher or lower.

Why Did Euro-Dollar Gains Persist?

According to performance across licensed currency trading platforms, Euro-Dollar gains have increased, supported by widespread US dollar weakness amid growing concerns about the American financial outlook. Discussions surrounding a proposed US tax cut bill have heightened fears that the budget deficit could worsen more rapidly than previously expected, following Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp follower, keep in mind that breaking the 1.14 resistance is an important sign of the bulls’ strong control over the Euro-Dollar’s direction. Monitor the factors influencing the currency pair and don’t take undue risks.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Financial Stability Review for May 2025 highlighted increasing concerns about financial stability in the Eurozone, pointing to escalating geopolitical tensions and continued policy uncertainty. The ECB warned that a weak economic outlook and trade disruptions could negatively impact businesses and households, while new spending pressures – such as increased defence budgets – could challenge long-term debt sustainability.

Earlier in the same week, investor confidence was boosted by news of a preliminary agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom on key issues including defence and security cooperation, fisheries, and youth mobility.

Technical Levels for the Euro vs. the US Dollar:

Dear TradersUp trader, based on the daily timeframe chart, the EUR/USD pair is moving within an upward channel. A move towards the psychological resistance of 1.1400 will strengthen the upward outlook, preparing for further technical upward breakouts. Despite recent gains, technical indicators still have room to move towards stronger upward levels before confirming an overbought trend. This is evident in the performance of the 14-day RSI and the MACD indicator, both poised for upward movement.

Currently, the nearest and most important resistance levels for Euro-Dollar are 1.1400, 1.1465, and 1.1530, respectively. Conversely, over the same period, the 1.1160 support level will remain a strong and real threat to the current upward trajectory. Overall, the rise in the Euro’s price against the US dollar is driven by US financial risks. Speculation about coordinated intervention in the currency market is also weighing in. Consequently, the EUR/USD exchange rate continues its ascent amid a renewed deterioration in demand for the US dollar.

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best European brokers in the industry for you.

Platinum price resumed the bullish rally to achieve the suggested target, to achieve the suggested target by hitting $1083.00 facing the resistance of the bullish channel that appears in the above image.

Reminding you that stochastic stability within the overbought level might force the price to provide intraday sideways trading, and the continuation of the current resistance stability might force the price to retest the initial support at $940.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will open the way for achieving new gains, forming an initial target at $1100,00 level, reaching the recently achieved top at $1125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1055.00 and $1083.00

Trend forecast: Sideways

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling struggles to clear resistance level after PMI data

GBP/USD retreats to the 1.3400 area in the European session on Thursday after ending the first three days of the week higher. The pair’s technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum as market focus shifts to Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data releases from the US.

The data from the UK showed early Thursday that the economic activity in the private sector contracted at a softer pace in May than it did in April, with S&P Global Composite PMI recovering to 49.4 from 48.5. Read more…

GBP/USD bullish price action trade [Video]

In this forex trading video we cover the entry,exit reasons and management for our forex trade today on the GBP/USD and how you can trade the forex structure on daily, four, hourly, and 15 minute charts and how you can target the next support/resistance. In the last few videos we covered the steps to find and trade structure. In this video you will learn how we traded the GBP/USD structure today using the trading charts and price action. Read more…

The Turkish Lira (TRY) against the US Dollar (USD) is currently trading at 0.0258, experiencing a sharp decline from its session opening level of 0.0371. This represents a significant negative change of approximately -30.63%, reflecting intense pressure on the Turkish Lira. Throughout the day, the pair has seen a wide price range between a low of 0.0255 and a high of 0.0391, indicating extreme volatility and high market fluctuations.

TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

The pair has been undergoing a sharp decline since the start of the session, with key support levels, notably 0.0300 and 0.0270, being broken. This indicates strong selling momentum. A break below 0.0260 makes 0.0255 a critical support area, and if it’s breached, the price could head towards even lower levels. Technically, Short-term moving averages (such as 20 and 50 days) show a steep downward trend. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates entry into oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a corrective rebound in the near term.

Potential Entry Points:

Bullish Entry Points:

• 0.0255 if clear reversal signals and an upward rebound emerge.
• 0.0248 as a potential technical support level if the decline continues.

Bearish Entry Points:

• 0.0270 if the price rises and resistance appears.
• 0.0285 as a selling opportunity if the price fails to break through this resistance.

TRYUSD Price Weekly Expectations:

Negative pressure on the Turkish Lira is expected to continue this week, with a possibility of testing the critical support at 0.0250. If this support holds, we might see a corrective rebound towards 0.0270 or 0.0280. However, if it breaks, the price could head to lower levels around 0.0240. Also, movements will be tied to any new developments from the Turkish Central Bank or inflation and interest rate indicators.

USD/TRY Trading Signals:

• Selling is advised if there’s a weak upward move towards technical resistances without a strong breakout.
• It’s preferable to monitor for rebound signals before buying from support levels, due to the strong selling momentum.
• Using stop-loss orders is essential given the sharp volatility.

Tips for USD/TRY Traders:

This period is highly sensitive for trading the Turkish Lira, and long-term trading is not recommended until trends become clearer. Day traders can capitalize on the sharp fluctuations, but with strict risk management.

Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best Turkish brokers to choose from.

The DFX Team at DailyForex is a group of veteran financial analysts, traders, and brokerage industry experts dedicated to producing in-depth broker reviews and cutting-edge market insights, plus analysis of market trends. Holding over 16 years of experience in global financial markets, and 4 B.A. level academic qualifications in relevant degrees, we conduct thorough, unbiased evaluations of brokers to enable traders make informed decisions, using the most advanced methodology in the industry. Also, the DFX team is involved in generating technical analysis, signals, and trading strategies, with a consistent commitment to accuracy and transparency. Whether you’re a beginner or a professional trader, the DFX Team works to ensure you have the tools and insights you need to succeed as a trader in the retail CFD industry.