USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back just a bit against the Swiss franc during the Good Friday session, but I think you are starting to see the 0.81 level as a potential major support level. If we can break above the 0.8250 level, then I think we could open up the possibility of a move to the 0.84 level. A breakdown below the 0.81 level opens up the possibility of 0.80, but I think at that point, the Swiss National Bank starts to pay a little bit of attention to the strength of the Franc, assuming that the Euro falls against the Frank as well. After all, the Swiss National Bank has no qualms about intervening if the franc gets too strong in general.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar has bounced slightly against the Canadian dollar as we are hanging around the crucial 1.3850 level. The 1.3850 level is an area that has been important multiple times in the past, as it was an area that was like a brick wall. So, the market memory is starting to come into the picture, and if we were to turn around and break above the 1.40 level, then perhaps the US dollar could go higher. But as things stand right now, I’m starting to hear calls of the US dollar no longer being the world’s reserve currency, and that’s almost a perfect technical sign to go in the other direction.

We don’t have that yet. We don’t have momentum. But trade deals could put the focus on everything else in the world right now, which of course is a bit of a mixed bag of optimism and pessimism that could drive money back into the U.S. Yields in America are certainly much higher than Canada or many of these other currencies. So eventually that might come into the picture as well as soon as we get some deals done.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has been very quiet against the Japanese yen. I think this will be an interesting pair to watch due to the fact that it has been stated by several US officials that there is significant progress in trade talks with the Japanese. So, this could be an interesting pair. The 140 yen level underneath is a significant support level that has been important multiple times over the longer term. So, I’m watching this with great interest. We are presently finding some support around 142 yen, but I think at this point in time, if we give up 140 yen, then we could see the Japanese yen strengthened quite wildly, perhaps all the way down to the 129 yen level against the US dollar.

That being said, I think as I look around the Forex world, the US dollar is at least trying to stabilize and without going too deep in the woods with the Euro Dollar situation, Eurodollar, not Euro against the dollar. Foreign reserves of US dollars will need to be adjusted due to a repatriation of funds and a warping of the demand for currencies. After all, US dollars pay most of the world’s debt. So, I do think that this has been a very impressive move, but you can make an argument that it begins to turn around. Watch carefully, 140 yen should tell you the whole story.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has pulled back from the crucial 0.64 level. This is an area that has been rather important more than once. And you can see that Good Friday was no different. The 200-day EMA sits above there and could offer a bit of technical resistance as well. So, keep that in mind. But all things being equal, this is a pair that I think will be driven by the US negotiations with China or, at this point, the lack of them and therefore, I would expect a wild swing sooner or later as the Australian economy is so interconnected with China.

If we can break above the 200-day EMA on a strong daily close, then we could see the Aussie dollar rise all the way to the 0.66 level based on a measured move. If we break down below the hammer that formed on Thursday, that could send this pair back down to the 50-day EMA, perhaps even the 0.62 level, which was the bottom of the previous consolidation range.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Created on April 18, 2025

• The euro initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday but gave back gains to show signs of hesitation.
• This does make a certain amount of sense, considering that the euro itself is overbought against quite a few currencies, and we have to worry about Good Friday slowing things down during the next session.
• Beyond that, there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to the global economy, and of course the idea of whether or not the tariff war is going to continue to be a major problem.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is somewhat stagnant at the moment, as the 50 Day EMA sits just below the current trading range, and this does suggest that perhaps we are sitting on potential technical support. Beyond that, the ¥160 level of course, is an area that a lot of people will be watching, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course an area that has been important more than once.

On the upside, if we were to break above the ¥164 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥165 level. In general, I think you’ve got a situation where traders will continue to perhaps kick the EUR/JPY pair between the ¥160 level on the bottom, and the ¥165 level on the top, essentially making this a flat and sideways market. However, if you are a short-term range bound trader, this could be a currency pair that you excel in as it looks like it has nowhere to be.

Expect volatile and choppy trading, but I think you can say that about pretty much any market at this point. I don’t like the idea of taking on a position right now, so position sizing will be crucial going forward. I am looking at this pair through the prism of small position, and short-term trade ideas.

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• EUR/USD moves sideways in a narrow range above 1.1350 on Friday.
• The pair is likely to remain quiet on Easter Friday.
• The ECB lowered key rates by 25 bps after the April policy meeting.

EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel at around 1.1370 after closing in negative territory on Thursday. With major financial markets remaining closed in observance of the Easter Holiday on Friday, the pair is likely to extend its sideways grind heading into the weekend.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it lowered key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the April policy meeting. This decision came in line with the market expectation and failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.

While speaking at the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde adopted a cautious tone, noting that the Eurozone’s economic outlook is clouded by uncertainty.

In the meantime, the data from the US showed that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 215,000 from 224,000 in the previous week. The US Dollar (USD) held its ground following this data and made it difficult for EUR/USD to gain traction.

Early Friday, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that the inflation risk from trade tensions seems weak and could even be downward, per Reuters.

The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Friday.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart moves sideways slightly below 60, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact but lacks momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.1350 (20-period Simple Moving Average) before 1.1280 (static level) and 1.1250 (lower limit of the ascending channel). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.1400 (static level), 1.1470 (midpoint of the ascending channel) and 1.1500 (round level).

(The story was corrected on April 18 at 08:16 GMT to say in the first bullet point that EUR/USD moves sideways above 1.1350 on Friday, not Thursday).

• GBP/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.3250 in the European session.
• The pair’s action is expected to remain subdued on Easter Friday.
• The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.

GBP/USD moves sideways in a tight channel above 1.3250 in the European session on Friday after posting small gains on Thursday. The pair remains on track to end the week in positive territory.

The US Dollar (USD) Index, which tracks the USD’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, closed marginally higher on Thursday, supported by the upbeat weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. The number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined to 215,000 from 224,000 in the previous week.

Despite the USD’s resilience, GBP/USD managed to stick to its modest daily gains as Pound Sterling captured capital outflows out of the Euro.

The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered key rates by 25 basis points (bps) after the April policy meeting, as anticipated. In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Lagarde refrained from hinting at a pause in policy-easing and acknowledged escalated uncertainty surrounding the Euro area’s economic outlook. EUR/GBP cross lost about 0.5% after the ECB event, helping Pound Sterling hold its ground.

The economic calendar will not offer any high-impact data releases on Friday. With major financial markets remaining closed in observance of the Easter Holiday, the pair is likely to have a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction heading into the weekend.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays above 60, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact.

On the upside, 1.3280 (static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.3360 (static level) and 1.3400 (static level, round level). Looking south, supports could be seen at 1.3250 (20-period SMA) ahead of 1.3200 (static level) and 1.3160 (static level).

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has recovered slightly against the Japanese yen during the early hours. But quite frankly, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is just simply oversold, much like the euro has been overbought. And I think the bounce makes a certain amount of sense. Over the longer term, I anticipate that you have to pay close attention to the 142 yen level because if we break significantly below there, then it’s likely that we would see the market drop to the 140 yen level.

The 145 yen level above, I think, is an area that a lot of people will be watching as it is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that has been important a couple of times in the past. Anything above there, the dollar probably catches a serious bid.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is overbought against the US dollar and is threatening the 0.64 level, an area that has been a major resistance barrier multiple times in the past and is also backed up by the 200-day EMA. So, I do think you have a scenario where traders are going to be looking at this as a potential short opportunity or maybe just an overbought extension that needs to at least grind away some of this excess froth.

As we head towards Good Friday, momentum will probably drop, liquidity will almost certainly drop. So therefore, I don’t necessarily think that we have a huge buying opportunity. However, if we get a daily close well above the 0.64 level, you have to think that the trend has changed from a longer term standpoint.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

April 17, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Euro Forecast: ECB Upside, “EUR Looking Overvalued vs USD, GBP, JPY”

After finding support close to 1.1600, the Pound to Euro exchange rate strengthened to just above 1.1660 GBPEUR after the ECB expressed concerns surrounding the Euro-Zone growth outlook, although the Euro pulled away from initial lows.

Commerzbank commented; “given the factors that argue against a hawkish surprise, the risks are likely to be skewed towards a weaker euro.”

ING expects solid GBP/EUR exchange rate selling on any gains to 1.1765.

The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the latest policy meeting, in line with consensus forecasts, with the deposit rate cut to 2.25%

The central bank expressed greater reservations surrounding the outlook.

According to the statement; “The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions. Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions.”

Bank President Lagarde stated that the economic outlook is clouded by exceptional uncertainty and that downside risks to the growth outlook have increased.

Markets are now expecting three further rate cuts this year which curbed Euro support.

Credit Agricole commented; “the ECB could further take into account the prospect for aggressive fiscal stimulus that could boost the bank’s long-term growth outlook for the Eurozone. While this could keep the EUR supported in the near term, we also note that our short-term fair value models are signalling that the EUR is looking quite overvalued vs the USD, GBP and JPY.”

UBS also notes the potential for a Euro correction; “markets have already priced in part of the fiscal boost over the last six weeks, so we see more downside than upside risk in next week’s sentiment numbers. After the euro’s recent rally, we expect next week’s data to prompt a consolidation rather than a renewed push higher.”

There were no significant UK developments during the day.

SocGen head of corporate research FX and rates Kenneth Broux commented on the outlook; “The backdrop for the UK and for sterling really is not too bad. As long as we don’t have another leg of risk-off and another spike in gilt yields, sterling should continue to do quite well.”

UBS considers that GBP/EUR fundamentals are mixed; “With its export mix vastly focused on services, the UK should fare better than others in the new goods-tariffed world. However, the GBP’s high-beta nature and trade dependency on the Eurozone would still suffer in a trade war scenario.”

It added; “Furthermore, the UK does not have the benefit of a fiscal bazooka plan like Germany, and we do not believe it will have the means to do so anytime soon.”

The bank is still broadly positive on the Pound; “Nevertheless, we still believe that GBP positives can shine through in the short run.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Euro Forecasts

April 17, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Looks to be Overbought Against Dollar

After hitting 6-month highs close to 1.3300, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate dipped to test 1.3200 before rebounding to 1.3240.

US equities posted sharp losses on Wednesday before a tentative rebound in futures on Thursday.

Scotiabank noted that the Pound is looking overbought but added; “We look to near-term resistance around 1.33, and beyond that, the September high around 1.34. Near-term support is expected between 1.3220 and 1.32.”

Although the dollar has managed to crawl away from 3-year lows, underlying confidence remains weak with the currency undermined by a fresh slide in US equities with the S&P 500 index sliding 2.2% on Wednesday. The currency index (DXY) was held below 100.

After Wednesday’s European close, Fed Chair Powell stated that the Administration had been more aggressive than expected in imposing tariffs.

He warned that the economy was liable to be weaker and inflation higher which would complicate the task in setting policy.

According to Powell; “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

His rhetoric was more hawkish than comments from Governor Waller earlier in the week.

Powell again considered that the central bank needed to be patient and there was no case for making any quick judgement on interest rates.

ING commented; “In normal market conditions, Powell’s hawkishness would have triggered a positive USD response. But the greenback is still responding to the narrative of relative US assets underperformance and growth concerns, which are arguably being compounded by a hawkish Fed.”

ING added; “Despite plenty of indications that the dollar is oversold and undervalued, we don’t see a catalyst for a respite today. Should US equities underperform again, DXY should extend its drop below 99.0.

Citi played down the risk of a big structural move away from the dollar; “We do not think this is a proper de-dollarisation and see no real risk to the USD reserve currency status.”

It did, however, add; “However, the world is overweight U.S. assets. Ultimately this ‘sell America’ flow could severely weigh on the USD this year.”

Confidence surrounding trade talks will also be a key element.

On Wednesday, there were some reports that China was open to talks with the US, but there were important conditions and overnight the foreign ministry stated that China will pay no attention if the United States continues to play the “tariff numbers game.”

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said markets are detecting signs of hope in US-Japan trade talks.

She added; “When the bar is low, even talks about talks can lift markets as investors rotate from fear to hope.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 17, 2025

• Currency traders failed to achieve an upward rebound for the USD/JPY currency pair; its slight gains did not exceed the 143.27 level, and it quickly returned to its stronger downward path, despite strong US retail sales figures.
• USD/JPY trading is stabilizing around the 141.66 level at the time of writing the analysis, paving the way for a more violent downward move.

Why does the USD/JPY continue to move strongly downward?

According to Forex market trading, the Japanese Yen’s gains against other major currencies increased, with the widespread weakness of the US dollar continuing. Growing concerns about the economic repercussions of a potential new round of US tariffs contributed to the decline of the US dollar. In the latest development in trade policy, US President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into the possibility of imposing tariffs on all essential US metal imports, much of which comes from China. This move has increased investor anxiety, adding pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, attention is shifting to upcoming trade talks between Japan and the United States, as Tokyo is striving for the complete abolition of Trump’s tariffs.

On the Japanese front, traders absorbed data showing an eight-month high in Japanese manufacturing sector confidence for April. However, the outlook remains cautious amid ongoing concerns about US trade policy.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp website follower, be cautious; USD/JPY will be affected by the direction of central bank policies and the reaction to the paths of global trade wars.

The Future of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Amid Trump’s Tariffs

In this regard, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated in an interview with the Sankei newspaper that the BOJ may consider taking policy action if US tariffs harm the Japanese economy. He added, “Taking policy action may become necessary,” noting that the risks posed by US President Trump’s trade actions have approached the “bad scenario” anticipated by the central bank.

The governor acknowledged that recent developments are already affecting business and household confidence. While the Board still plans to raise interest rates at an “appropriate pace,” Ueda stressed the importance of assessing the economic impact of US tariffs without prejudging them. He added that domestic food price inflation is likely to decline, real wages are expected to rise mid-year, and that upside and downside risks remain regarding inflation expectations.

The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting from April 30 to May 1, where it will also release updated economic forecasts.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

Dear reader, as clearly shown on the daily chart, the overall trend for the USD/JPY currency pair remains bearish. Also, the return to the vicinity of the current support at 141.60 signals a deeper downward move. The psychological support at 140.00 will be an easy target for the bears, and until it moves towards or away from it. Furthermore, technical indicators have moved towards strong oversold zones, as is the case with signals from the MACD, RSI, and other momentum indicators. Therefore, we recommend buying USD/JPY from the vicinity of the support levels 140.90, 140.00, and 139.20 respectively, with future targets at 143.20 and 145.00 respectively, and the stop-loss remains below the 138.00 support.

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• EUR/USD declines toward 1.1350 after posting gains on Wednesday.
• The ECB is widely anticipated to lower key rates by 25 basis points.
• The technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum in the near term.

EUR/USD gained traction and registered its highest daily close since February 2022 at 1.1400 on Wednesday. The pair corrects lower toward 1.1350 early Thursday as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements.

The broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness helped EUR/USD push higher on Wednesday as reports suggesting that the United States (US) President Donald Trump was planning to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure US trading partner to isolate China fed into fears over a deepening trade conflict.

The ECB is widely anticipated to lower key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the April policy meeting. Since the ECB will not be releasing revised economic projections this time, investors will scrutinize the statement language and comments from President Christine Lagarde in the post-meeting press conference.

Earlier in the week, Bloomberg reported that the European Union (EU) was expecting a bulk of the tariffs imposed by the US to remain in place after little progress was made in talks on Monday. In case the ECB puts more emphasis on upside risks to inflation because of tariffs, rather than the growth outlook, markets could assess that as a hawkish tone. In this scenario, the Euro is likely to preserve its strength.

On the flip side, the Euro could struggle to find demand if the ECB, or President Lagarde, reaffirms confidence in the ongoing disinflation process and hints at a continuation of policy-easing.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart retreated slightly below 60 and EUR/USD declined to test the 20-period Simple Moving Average, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, 1.1280 (static level) aligns as first support level below 1.1230 (lower limit of the ascending channel) and 1.1200-1.1190 (static level, 50-period SMA). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.1400 (static level, mid-point of the ascending channel), 1.1470 (static level) and 1.1500 (round level).