• Despite the strength of the US dollar against other major currencies following signals of an imminent trade agreement between China and the United States, the British Pound is showing remarkable resilience against the US dollar’s gains.
• At the beginning of trading this week, and across licensed currency trading company platforms, the GBP/USD pair is moving around the 1.3255 level at the time of writing this analysis, with its highest point being the 1.3298 resistance level.
• As is evident, the Pound is displaying strong resilience, as the trade deal between Britain and the United States will remain a positive factor for the strength of the currency pair.

Meanwhile, the GBP exchange rate is trading with positive momentum and is expected to continue its gains this week. Also, its gains come on the back of news that the United States and China have made progress towards a new trade agreement in weekend talks held in Geneva. This progress is crucial in boosting global investor confidence, which is a major driver for the British Pound. According to the latest developments, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng stated that the talks represent an “important first step” towards reaching a new trade agreement. He added, “Once announced, it will be good news for the world.”

Overall, the signs of progress were not expected so quickly, given the significant deterioration in relations between the United States and China following President Donald Trump’s imposition of large tariffs. Investors welcomed the progress made on Monday, which led to a rise in global stock markets amid “risk-on” trading.

Trading Tips:

We still advise buying the Pound Sterling against the US dollar from every downward level, but without risk and while monitoring the factors affecting the performance of the currency pair.

Looking at the economic calendar, the United Kingdom releases highly important wage and employment data on Tuesday, which often triggers volatility. Wages are expected to remain high, preventing the Bank of England from accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts. The Bank provided a more cautious-than-expected assessment of its performance in the May Monetary Policy Report last week, defying expectations that it might have paved the way for another interest rate cut in June.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

As clearly shown on the performance of the GBP/USD currency pair on the daily timeframe chart, the situation is neutral, with a balance between bear and bull control over the direction. Despite the recent selling, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not reached the midline, giving hope for sustained upward movement. However, the MACD indicator for the 12.26 closing is leaning downwards. Bear control over the Sterling against the US dollar will strengthen if it moves towards the support levels of 1.3190 and 1.3080, respectively. Conversely, over the same time frame, the 1.3400 resistance will remain the most important for bulls to control and prepare for stronger upward breakouts.

Decisively, we expect the pound to remain stable against the US dollar until markets and investors react to the announcement of US inflation figures, which will impact expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.

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• At the start of the US inflation week, the upward rebound gains for the USD/JPY currency pair continue, reaching the 146.28 resistance level, the highest for the pair in a month.
• Investors abandoned buying the Japanese Yen as a safe haven, as optimism about US-China trade negotiations led to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets.
• The USD/JPY pair’s gains will face another important event during this week’s trading, with the release of the US inflation reading, which strongly influences market expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.

Over the past weekend, officials from both countries indicated progress, with US representatives praising an agreement aimed at reducing the trade deficit, while Chinese leaders described the outcome as an “important consensus.” Meanwhile, US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the basic 10% tariff on other countries will “likely remain in place for the foreseeable future.” Investors also closely monitored the ongoing trade talks between the US and Japan, with Tokyo seeking to reach an agreement by June. Domestically, Japan recorded a current account surplus of 3.45 trillion yen in March, following a record surplus of 4.06 trillion yen in February.

Trading Tips:

Obviously, the upward shift in the USD/JPY pair requires an end to the trade dispute between the United States and global economies. Furthermore, failure to do so could lead to renewed selling of the currency pair.

Positive Investor Sentiment Lifts Japanese Stock Prices:

During today’s trading and across stock trading company platforms, the Japanese Nikkei 225 stock index rose by 0.2% to reach 37,600 points, while the broader Topix index rose by 0.4% to reach 2,744 points, marking its highest level in six weeks. This increase came as the US indicated “tangible progress” in trade negotiations with China over the weekend in Switzerland. The US highlighted its efforts to reduce its trade deficit, while Chinese leaders affirmed reaching an “important consensus.”

However, US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the basic 10% tariffs on other countries are expected to remain in place “for the foreseeable future.” Investors also monitored the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan, with Tokyo aiming to finalize a potential agreement by June. According to trading, gains were led by the shares of major companies included in the index, including Kawasaki Heavy Industries (up 3.9%), Disco Corp (2.5%), Fujikura (1.8%), Advantest (4%), and IHI Corp (1%).

Japan’s Services Sentiment at Lowest in Over 3 Years:

According to an official announcement today, Japan’s services sector index fell to 42.6 points in April 2025, from 45.1 points in the previous month, marking its lowest level since February 2022 and the fourth consecutive month of decline. The household budget trends index in housing-related sectors decreased, but it increased in the food and beverage sector. The corporate trends index also declined, affected by the non-manufacturing sector’s decrease. Employment also saw a decline during this period. Meanwhile, the economic outlook index fell to 42.7 points in April, its lowest level in four years, from 45.2 points in March, reflecting increasing concerns about the impact of US trade policy and persistent cost pressures.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

According to recent trading, the USD/JPY pair continues to trade above the 100-hour moving average by a few levels. Last Friday’s decline helped the currency pair recover from the overbought condition of the 14-hour Relative Strength Index. In the short term, bears will target selling moves towards the support level of 145.60, then to the support of 145.00, respectively. Conversely, bulls will look to capitalize on upward rebounds with gains to the resistance level of 146.30, then to the resistance of 146.85, respectively.

In the long term, according to the performance on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading within a descending channel. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index recently rebounded to avoid moving into oversold levels. Therefore, bulls will target extended rebounds at the resistance level of 147.50, then to the psychological resistance of 150.00, respectively. Conversely, over the same time frame, bears will seek to capitalize on the current wave of declines to move towards the support level of 143.00, then to the psychological support of 140.00, respectively.

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EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Within a descending channel formation.
• Today’s Euro/Dollar Support Levels: 1.1180 – 1.1100 – 1.1060.
• Today’s Euro/Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1280 – 1.1360 -1.1400.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1130 with a target of 1.1360 and a stop-loss at 1.1050.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1340 with a target of 1.1160 and a stop-loss at 1.1410.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

A downward price gap affected the EUR/USD currency pair at the start of trading this important week, with losses extending to the 1.1183 support level, the lowest for the pair in a month, before stabilizing around the 1.1220 level at the time of writing this analysis. The Forex market was affected at the beginning of the US inflation week by signals from trade talks between China and the United States. Trump confirmed “significant progress” in US-China trade talks – but a final agreement remains uncertain.

According to the movement of technical indicators, EUR/USD trading on the daily timeframe chart indicates the formation of a reverse descending channel, and the 1.1130 support will remain important for strong and continuous bear control over the currency pair’s direction. With the recent losses, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strongly pushed to break the midline, confirming the bearish shift. It has more room for larger losses before reaching the oversold zone. At the same time, the MACD lines confirm the downward movement, with the blue line significantly preceding the orange line.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD trend is entering a new downward phase, which will be confirmed soon. Monitor the factors influencing the forex market to find the best trading opportunities.

The EUR/USD currency pair is not anticipating any important economic data during today’s Monday trading session, neither from the Eurozone nor the United States. Accordingly, the currency pair will move within narrow ranges until confirmation of trade agreements between global economies to avoid wider trade wars that threaten the future of global economic recovery. On the economic front, US inflation figures will remain the most prominent focus for currency traders this week.

The Future of the US/China Trade Agreement:

In this regard, US President Donald Trump enthusiastically tweeted about the recent trade discussions with China in Switzerland, describing them as “friendly but constructive” and noting “significant progress.” While this optimism from Trump can be viewed positively, leading market participants to anticipate positive outcomes for stocks and risk-sensitive currencies, investors and traders should exercise caution. On the one hand, Trump’s optimistic tone may reflect genuine achievements, which could lead to significant benefits for American companies and reduce trade tensions. If this development proves true with concrete details, it will have a significant positive impact on market sentiment. However, it can be reasonably assumed that a trade agreement has not yet been finalized, as such a crucial achievement would likely be accompanied by a definitive announcement or confirmation from other official channels.

Historically, optimistic statements from leaders – especially Trump – have sometimes preceded difficult negotiations that did not immediately lead to final agreements. Therefore, Trump’s message may primarily aim to shape positive market sentiment rather than indicate a completely finalized agreement.

Therefore, investors and traders in financial markets should anticipate further negotiations and detailed announcements from US and Chinese officials. Until a firm and solid agreement is reached, maintaining prudent risk management remains essential amid potentially volatile trade headlines.

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Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The Euro has initially fallen against the US dollar only to turn around and rally against the US dollar before running into trouble with the 1.13 level.
• This has been one of those sessions where pretty much everybody had a chance to lose money as day traders get chopped up.

As far as a longer term move is concerned, I’d be watching the 1.12 level more than anything else because I think that’s the most important level on the chart, at least in the short term. Breaking down below that level could kick off something somewhat negative. And it looks to me like the Euro is trying to do exactly that. On the other hand, though, if we do break above the 1.13 level, we could then test on 1.14 level followed by the 1.15 level.

Topping Pattern Here?

All things being equal, this is a market that when you look at longer term charts, you can see what I see and that is a potential topping pattern. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the market needs to fall significantly. It just means that a pullback is probably more likely than not. We’ll have to wait and see how things play out, but if there is some type of progress made over the weekend with the Chinese, the US dollar probably gets inflows, we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.

Nonetheless, this is a market that had been overdone, so this pullback made a certain amount of sense. Now, I’ll be watching the 1.12 level to see if that pullback becomes something a little bigger. On the other hand, if we do break above that 1.13 level, then I think we will just continue the same choppy sideways noisy consolidation while we wait to see if there’s any reason whatsoever to push the Euro above the 1.15 level.

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May 11, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: 1.45 if USD Reverts to Historic Mean

RBC Capital Markets (RBC) expects a tentative Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) gain to 1.39 by the second quarter of 2026 as the dollar loses ground.

If the dollar reverts to historic mean levels, Westpac notes that GBP/USD could reach 1.45.

Standard Chartered, however, expects a GBP/USD retreat to at least 1.30.

GBP/USD dipped to near 1.32 on Thursday amid a dollar recovery before a recovery to just above 1.33.

The UK signed a trade deal with the US with lower tariffs on steel and car exports to the US, although the baseline 10% tariffs were maintained.

The deal increased market hopes that the US Administration would adopt a more conciliatory stance towards trade tariffs.

In this context, the dollar secured a further net recovery amid a reduction in the risk premium with little net Pound benefit.

Looking at the UK implications, HSBC commented; “The trade deal does mean the UK avoids the worst of some of the US’s tariff hikes, but most UK goods still face the 10% tariff introduced by President Trump on 2 April. This is much more than the average tariff of 2.2% previously.”

Standard Chartered commented; “market optimism is likely to be short-lived since the UK parliament needs to approve and finalise the trade deal.”

There will be an important focus on China with some dialogue due over the weekend, but a lot of work to be done to make any progress.

MUFG commented; “A reduction for China even to 60% and others at a rate in between that and the 10% floor for all other countries is still more like worst case scenarios prior to 2nd April.”

It added; “Trump’s words yesterday may have indicated we are moving to a better place for global and US growth but his words also suggested trade uncertainty would remain high. That means, in our view, that there will be limits to this US dollar recovery with damage to the US economy likely to become more evident in US economic data.”

According to RBC Capital Markets the dollar will remain vulnerable; “Lingering trade uncertainty leaves the economic outlook still unknown, but it is clear asset markets price US assets with higher risk premia, higher volatility and higher uncertainty. So long as that stigma remains, we think USD selling through FX hedging or asset reallocation will remain the overall trend.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50%, in line with consensus forecasts. According to Chair Powell, the impact of tariffs will be greater than expected and there is likely to be upward pressure on both inflation and unemployment.

Higher unemployment would increase pressure for a cut in rates, but higher inflation would act in the opposite direction.

Given these potential tensions, Powell reiterated that the bank needed to be patient and wait for the data to signal the appropriate policy.

Markets cut the potential for a June rate cut to around 20% from near 60% previously.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% which was in line with strong market expectations.

There was a 3-way vote split with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a larger 50 basis-point cut while Mann and chief economist Pill voted against cutting rates.

The bank maintained its guidance that interest rates should be careful and cautious given persistent inflation pressures.

HSBC is not backing another rate cut at the June meeting; “If all of the information is pointing in the same (dovish) direction, then it’s possible that the BoE will seek to speed up the pace of easing. But base case has to be for the next cut to come in August.”

Standard Chartered is more bearish; “we expect the Bank of England to cut rates more than other Developed Market central banks in the coming months as UK growth and inflation weaken due to global trade uncertainty.”

Westpac expects that GBP/USD will settled around 1.32 in June and rally to 1.36 by late 2026.

The bank added; “It is worth emphasising that there is clear upside risk to these forecasts if investors recoil from the US because of open-ended political and/or fiscal uncertainty. For Sterling, a full reset back to the 20-year average for DXY would equate to around 1.45.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

May 11, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.17 by 2026, 1.24 by 2027 say RBC

RBC Capital Markets (RBC) forecasts that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) will strengthen to 1.17 at the end of this year with a further gain to 1.24 at the end of next year.

EUR/USD dipped to test 1.12 late in the week before a recovery to around 1.1265.

ING noted the importance of 1.12; “a break lower would signal a marked shift in sentiment on the pair and potentially pave the way for larger corrections, with 1.100 being the next big support.”

RBC sees three potential Euro supportive factors. An end to US exceptionalism would underpin the Euro, especially once the Fed does lower rates.

It also sees scope for increased capital flows to the Euro area with a Euro-Zone fiscal stimulus also supportive.

RBC commented; “We have revised up our end-2026 target for EUR/USD in line with a reassessment for allocation to US vs EZ assets.”

It added; “It is very hard calling the timing but we suspect we won’t see EUR/USD trade past 1.20 until the Fed is really able to narrow the s/t rate gap in 2026.”

The US-UK trade deal sparked optimism of a more conciliatory stance by the US Administration which underpinned the dollar.

UBS expects limited benefit; “We continue to view positive trade headlines as supportive for the USD. However, as we expect any dollar strength to be short-lived and anticipate the currency to weaken over the remainder of the year, we favor selling the USD during rallies—specifically below EURUSD 1.12.”

According to ING; “This is still a far cry from the “pragmatic” version of Trump that markets were pricing in as the baseline on Inauguration Day, but it’s enough to prevent growth and debt-related bearish bets on the dollar from mounting.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50% at the latest policy meeting, in line with consensus forecasts. According to Chair Powell, the impact of tariffs will be greater than expected and there is likely to be upward pressure on both inflation and unemployment.

Higher unemployment would increase pressure for a cut in rates, but elevated inflation would act in the opposite direction.

Given these potential tensions, Powell reiterated that the bank needed to be patient and wait for the data to signal the appropriate policy.

Markets cut the potential for a June rate cut to around 20% from near 60% previously.

ING commented; “This week, the Fed sounded anything but dovish. Still, there’s a risk that Chair Jerome Powell’s current stance is overly cautious given high uncertainty on tariffs – perhaps to reaffirm the Fed’s independence in the face of Trump’s easing calls.”

According to Danske Bank; “we still think risks are skewed towards downside surprises as front-loaded demand fades and goods supply shortages become increasingly common – especially if reaching an agreement on reducing China-tariffs takes longer than expected.”

It added; “We expect to see majority of the tariff-driven growth slowdown over the course of H2. So even if the Fed opts to remain on hold also in June, we remain confident in our call for three cuts in total for the rest of 2025.”

Westpac expects yields will remain dollar supportive; “We see the next Fed rate cut in September, meaning US rates will stay high compared to peers, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE), which have room to ease.”

Investment banks continued to debate the underlying dollar outlook.

According to Credit Agricole; “We doubt that the role of the USD as the world’s main reserve currency can be challenged any time soon given the lack of credible alternatives.”

It added; “Moreover, even if we were to see the emergences of global trade blocs using their own reserve currencies, the outcome could still favour the USD over the likes of the EUR.”

ING noted underlying uncertainty; “There are reasonable doubts about markets’ readiness to rebuild strategic dollar positions just yet, and time might be needed to reinstall market confidence in the dollar as a safe-haven asset.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts

May 11, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: 1.182 Today, 1.2 by 2026

Foreign exchange analysts at Credit Agricole consider the Pound Sterling to be still undervalued and expect the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) to gain to 1.2050 at the end of this year.

RBC Capital Markets (RBC), however, forecasts that the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will decline to 1.1630 at the end of this year with a further slide to 1.11 at the end of next year amid net capital inflows into the Euro area.

GBP/EUR secured a net gain to 5-week highs at 1.1820 during the week before settling around 1.18 amid positive UK trade developments and a relatively hawkish Bank of England (BoE) policy decision.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% which was in line with strong market expectations.

There was a 3-way vote split with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a larger 50 basis-point cut while Mann and chief economist Pill voted against cutting rates.

The bank maintained its guidance that interest rates should be careful and cautious given persistent inflation pressures.

According to Rabobank; “Our baseline scenario remains unchanged since last summer: the MPC cuts rates quarterly, focusing on meetings with an MPR, and aims to close out 2025 with a policy rate of 3.75%.”

It added; “That said, we do agree with the market’s view prior to today’s meeting that the risk of a more aggressive pace has risen. But for that to materialize, April’s CPI print (out on May 21) must soothe rather than reignite fears of inflation’s persistence.”

Danske Bank noted positive yield spreads, but added; “More broadly, while we see domestic factors as GBP positives, we think the global investment environment will be in the driver’s seat for EUR/GBP in the coming months. An investment environment characterised by elevated uncertainty, widening credit spreads and a positive correlation to a USD negative environment, in our view, favours a weaker GBP.”

The UK also reached a trade deal with the US with a reduction in tariffs on steel to zero while the tariff on cars will be cut to 10%.

The overall baseline tariff will, however, remain at 10%.

In return, the US will gain improved access to the UK market, especially in agriculture.

The UK and EU will hold a summit on May 19th.

ING commented; “The deal had already been largely priced in, and the implications for the UK economy are not significant. That said, the UK has now signed two trade deals in quick succession (with India and the US), and that is keeping markets hopeful on trade talks with the EU – which would have much more meaningful implications for the UK, and can lend a hand to troubled British finances.”

Credit Agricole noted some positives; “It should be also mentioned that the BoE outlook for the economy could improve from here, given that the MPC has not pencilled in the impact from the trade deal between the US and UK.”

The bank still sees scope for Pound gains; “markets will focus on BoE speeches as they gauge the magnitude of the bank’s easing bias in the wake of the May policy meeting. Absent any significant data disappointments or dovish surprises, the still undervalued GBP could outperform the EUR.”

RBC is still concerned over UK fundamentals; “its net international investment position is negative not positive. That means while EUR and JPY benefit from a Fed cutting cycle, GBP should lag, leading EUR/GBP higher in 2026.”

The bank added; “The 2022 Truss episode has done lasting damage in that even under pretty extreme global conditions, gilt investors, and by extension the UK govt, see limited room for the govt to offer much fiscal support.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Euro Forecasts

• The GBP/USD weekly forecast is optimistic after the US-UK trade deal.

• Some BoE policymakers were not ready to cut interest rates.

• The dollar had a solid week due to optimism about easing trade tensions.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is optimistic, as the US-UK trade deal alleviates concerns about growth in Britain.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD 

The GBP/USD pair had a bullish week but closed below its highs due to dollar strength. The pound had a good week after the US signed a trade deal with the UK, leaving a baseline tariff of 10%. Moreover, the BoE policy meeting revealed that some policymakers were not ready to cut interest rates. As a result, rate cut expectations dropped. 

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However, the dollar also had a solid week after the Fed remained cautious and due to optimism about easing trade tensions. The US-UK deal opened the door for a US-China deal.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD

Next week, market participants will focus on data from the UK, including employment, manufacturing production, and GDP. Meanwhile, the US will release figures on consumer inflation, retail sales, and wholesale inflation. 

The UK employment and GDP reports will shape the outlook for future Bank of England policy moves. Upbeat numbers will lower expectations for rate cuts, supporting the pound. On the other hand, cracks in the economy would pile pressure to cut rates. 

The same will happen in the US with inflation and sales data. Higher inflation and weak sales would reflect the impacts of Trump’s tariffs.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls retest the SMA line

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has pulled back to retest the 22-SMA support after pausing near the 1.3401 resistance level. Despite the pullback, the price looks ready to bounce higher. It trades above the SMA, and the RSI is above 50, supporting a bullish bias. 

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GBP/USD has maintained a bullish trend for some time, despite puncturing the 22-SMA. At the same time, it has respected a support trendline below the SMA, bouncing to new highs from the line. The most recent high came near the 1.3401 key level. Here, the price paused to consolidate as the SMA caught up. 

Given the strong bullish bias, the price might break above 1.3401 next week for a higher high. Such a move would allow bulls to target the 1.3603 key level. 

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