• The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows escalating fears of a US recession.

• Downbeat US inflation figures increased expectations for Fed rate cuts.

• Data on Friday revealed an unexpected contraction in the UK economy.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is positive despite the paused rally, as escalating US recession fears weigh on the greenback. 

Ups and downs of GBP/USD 

The GBP/USD price had a slightly bullish week as the dollar fell due to fears of the US recession. Meanwhile, a downbeat UK GDP report kept a lid on gains. 

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This week, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. This tariff affected the Eurozone and Canada, who responded immediately. The trade wars dimmed the outlook for the global economy and increased US recession fears. Meanwhile, downbeat US inflation figures increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. 

On the other hand, the pound fell after data on Friday revealed an unexpected contraction in the UK economy. This put pressure on the BoE to lower borrowing costs.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD

Next week, the US will release its retail sales report. Meanwhile, the UK will release employment data. Moreover, market participants will focus on the Fed and Bank of England policy meetings. 

Market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, traders will focus on the messaging during the meeting for clues on future moves. Similarly, investors expect the Bank of England to hold rates on Thursday. The tone at the meeting will also give clues about future policy moves.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Uptrend meets solid resistance zone

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has reached a solid resistance zone comprising the 1.3000 key psychological level and the 0.618 Fib retracement. The bullish bias is strong, with the price far above the 22-SMA and the RSI near the overbought region. 

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Moreover, the price has maintained a bullish trend, making higher highs and lows and keeping above the 22-SMA. Therefore, bulls might be strong enough to break above the current resistance zone. However, the price needs a pause or pullback to the SMA after a sharp swing. If this happens, the price will fall to the 22-SMA before bouncing to retest the resistance zone. 

A break above this zone will clear the path for GBP/USD to retest the 1.3401 resistance. However, if the zone holds firm, bears might overpower bulls to push the price below the 22-SMA. This would allow the price to revisit the 1.2604 support level.

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The EURJPY pair formed new decline yesterday to achieve the first negative target at 160.00, forming new additional support line, to push it to form temporary positive rebound and settle near 161.05.

Now, stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum and the stability of 161.60 barrier allow us to keep the negative overview, waiting to attack 160.00 level again, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations that might extend towards 159.30 and 158.85 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.00 and 161.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

• GBP/USD stays below 1.2950 after posting small losses on Thursday.
• Disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the UK make it difficult for Pound Sterling to gather strength.
• The near-term technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum.

After closing marginally lower on Thursday, GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.2950 in the European session on Friday. Although the near-term technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup of bearish momentum, the pair could have a difficult time staging a rebound after disappointing data releases from the UK.

The data published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed early Friday that the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% on a monthly basis in January. This reading followed the 0.4% growth recorded in December and came in below the market expectation for an expansion of 0.1%.

The ONS further reported that Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production fell by 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively, on a monthly basis. Both of these prints came in worse than analysts’ estimates, weighing on Pound Sterling.

The US economic calendar will feature the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for March. A noticeable deterioration in consumer confidence could cause the US Dollar to come under pressure and allow GBP/USD to limit its losses.

Meanwhile, US stock index futures rise between 0.5% and 0.1% in the European session on Friday. So far, Pound Sterling has failed to benefit from improving risk mood. Nevertheless, a risk rally in the American session could hurt the USD and support GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD’s last candle on the 4-hour chart closed below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated to 50, reflecting a lack of buyer interest.

On the downside, 1.2900 (round level, static level, mid-point of the ascending regression channel) aligns as first support before 1.2850 (static level) and 1.2800 (200-day SMA). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.2970 (static level), 1.3000 (round level, static level) and 1.3040 (upper limit of the ascending channel).

• EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.0850 in the European session on Friday.
• The technical outlook shows no signs of a buildup in directional momentum.
• UoM Consumer Sentiment Index data will be featured in the US economic calendar.

EUR/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase at around 1.0850 after closing the previous two days in negative territory. The pair’s near-term technical outlook fails to provide a directional clue.

The US Dollar (USD) held its ground on Thursday as safe-haven flows continued to dominate the action in financial markets. Additionally, the data published by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined slightly to 220,000 from 222,000 in the previous week.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Thursday that he would seek to impose 200% tariffs on European wine and champagne imports. In response, French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said Trump’s threat to augment tariffs on French liquor imports were not surprising and called his actions an “idiotic war.”

In the second half of the day, the University of Michigan will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for March. A noticeable deterioration in consumer confidence could hurt the USD ahead of the weekend and help EUR/USD keep its footing. 

Investors could also react to changes in risk perception. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.6% and 1%. A bullish action in Wall Street could make it difficult for the USD to outperform its rivals and open the door for a rebound in EUR/USD. 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD retreated below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index fell slightly below 50, reflecting a lack of buyer interest. On the downside, 1.0800 (static level, round level) could be seen as next support before 1.0730 (200-day SMA). 

In case EUR/USD holds steady above 1.0850 (static level), it could face next resistance at 1.0900 (round level, static level) ahead of 1.0940 (static level).

The EURJPY pair formed new decline yesterday to achieve the first negative target at 160.00, forming new additional support line, to push it to form temporary positive rebound and settle near 161.05.

Now, stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum and the stability of 161.60 barrier allow us to keep the negative overview, waiting to attack 160.00 level again, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations that might extend towards 159.30 and 158.85 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.00 and 161.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

• The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a weaker UK economy.

• Data revealed a 0.1% contraction in the UK economy. 

• Market participants expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged next week.

The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a weaker UK economy after data revealed an unexpected contraction. Meanwhile, market participants are grappling with the escalating global trade tensions as Trump continues his aggressive policy changes. 

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The pound pulled back on Friday after data revealed a 0.1% contraction in the UK economy. This followed an expansion of 0.4%. Economists had expected the GDP to increase by 0.1%. The poor report might increase pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. However, market participants expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged next week.

The BoE and other major central banks will likely proceed with caution due to uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump’s tariff. The US president has attacked many of its major trading partners with tariffs, igniting trade wars. The UK is yet to feel the pain of these tariffs like Canada and the Eurozone. However, Trump is not done. He intends to keep imposing tariffs that will affect more countries.

Meanwhile, data from the US on Thursday was mixed. Wholesale inflation came in lower than expected. On the other hand, unemployment claims missed forecasts, indicating increased demand for labor. Nevertheless, Fed rate cut expectations have risen significantly due to recent downbeat economic data.

GBP/USD key events today

• Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
• Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bearish RSI divergence 

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused its steep rally near the 1.2951 resistance level. Although the price trades above the 30-SMA, it seems ready to break below. Meanwhile, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum. 

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The price has maintained a bullish trend, trading mostly above the 30-SMA. However, every now and then, the price has broken below the SMA for a deeper pullback. With this, the uptrend has created a solid support trendline. 

Therefore, a break below the SMA would not necessarily indicate a reversal. Instead, the price might need a deeper pullback. A retest of the support trendline will allow bulls to regain momentum and seek new highs. The trend will only reverse when the price breaks below this trendline.

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Brent oil price shows some slight bearish bias now to test 71.00$ barrier, while stochastic continues to provide the positive signals on the intraday time frames, waiting to motivate the price to resume the expected rise for today, which depends on the price stability above 70.75$ and 70.30$ levels, reminding you that our targets begin at 72.00$ and extend to 73.00$ after surpassing the previous level.

The USDJPY price opened today with new rise to approach the key resistance 148.65, noticing that the EMA50 forms negative pressure that hinders the attempts to achieve more rise, waiting to push the price to resume the expected main bearish trend for the upcoming period, which its next target reaches 146.55.

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Created on March 13, 2025

• The GBP/USD pair’s upward trajectory has come to a relative halt, having been on the cusp of the psychological resistance at 1.3000, with gains reaching a peak of 1.2988, the highest level for the pair in four months.
• According to trading, the GBP/USD exchange rate declined against the US dollar after US inflation fell below expectations.
• However, the weakness is expected to be limited, and the upward trend will remain strong.

The US Dollar Is Affected by Weaker Inflation Figures

According to Forex market trading, the US dollar rose in tandem with news of US inflation for February declining to 0.2% month-on-month from 0.5%, surpassing expectations of 0.3%. Officially announced, the annual rate fell to 3.1% from 3.3%, also lower than the consensus expectations of 3.2%.

Overall, the Forex market guide suggests that weak US inflation would increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further, which would negatively impact the US dollar. However, the recent period has witnessed sharp volatility for the US dollar and the global currency market in general, so we are not surprised by the unexpected rise in the dollar.

The decline in inflation will alleviate concerns about the US economy heading towards a bout of stagflation, which is, to some extent, supportive of the currency. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index performance had declined during 2025 amid signs of a slowing US economy and expectations of rising inflation with increased import costs due to tariffs. Obviously, high inflation and declining growth create a stagflation environment that rarely supports currencies.

However, the US dollar is also benefiting from the sense that concerns about tariffs are fully understood, and that headlines and threats from the White House are losing their grip on the currency. However, the decline in the GBP/USD pair remains shallow, and the trend of least resistance remains upward, with the psychological resistance level of 1.30 emerging.

Trading Tips:

The GBP/USD upward trend is at an important stage for continuation or exposure to profit-taking selloffs, so caution is advised.

Will the GBP/USD reach the 1.30 high?

According to Forex market experts, the situation for the GBP/USD pair will become more difficult at this important 1.30 level. The GBP/USD exchange rate is primarily dependent on the EUR/GBP and EUR/USD exchange rates these days (the EUR/GBP pair is experiencing a slight increase simply because its rise has been slower than the EUR/USD pair’s). However, the slowdown in UK economic growth, caused by fiscal measures, is likely to be sufficient to encourage hedging of any long-term exposure to the British pound, as the GBP/USD exchange rate approaches or breaks the 1.30 level.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to daily chart trading above, the general trend for the GBP/USD currency pair remains upward. As we mentioned before, the psychological resistance of 1.3000 will remain the most important for the strength of the bulls’ control of the trend, and at the same time, it will be sufficient to push technical indicators towards strong overbought levels, led by the Relative Strength Index and the MACD indicator. In contrast, there will be no exit from the current upward channel without moving towards and below the support level of 1.2740. furthermore, the GBP/USD performance will remain dependent on investor sentiment towards risk appetite and the reaction to signals from global central bank officials. So far, the GBP has avoided the reaction from US tariffs.

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March 13, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Drops as US-EU Trade War Escalates

Risk markets are fading lower again and the Euro (EUR) is retracing some of its recent rally against the US Dollar (USD). This comes despite better-than-expected inflation readings in the US. The trade war has escalated in the last 24 hours and the EU is in Trump’s sights.

There was a peculiar reaction to Wednesday’s cooler CPI readings in the US. After a strong rally, stocks faded back into the red, while the US dollar reversed higher. Not only that, the odds of rate cut in May from the Fed fell from 40% to 30%.

This was not the expected reaction – fears of inflation have been weighing on risk markets so the lower-than-expected readings should have given them a significant boost. There were several possible reasons for the reaction.

Firstly, the February data may be the calm beofre the storm. Tariffs are expected to significantly increases inflation over the coming months as prices of imports increase and are passed on to consumers. This has only just started happening.

Secondly, President Trump took credit for the better inflation readings with a post on Truth Social stating,

“The price of eggs have come down, interest rates have come down, gasoline prices have come down—It’s all coming down!”

The problem – at least for markets – is that Trump’s policies seem to be tackling inflation, at least in the short-term. This encourages more of the same policies and Trump has taken to social media to air his thoughts.

“The U.S. doesn’t have Free Trade. We have “Stupid Trade.” The Entire World is RIPPING US OFF!!!,” he posted on Thursday.

Indeed, the last 24 hours have been awash with trade war threats., with the EU now firmly in the crosshairs.

“The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% Tariff on Whisky. If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES.”

This has hit the euro and EURUSD is down 0.4% at 1.085 having reached a peak of 1.095 earlier this week. Tariffs threaten the still-fragile EU economy and could lead to further aggressive cuts from the ECB in a bid to support affected businesses.

The Bank of Canada has taken a similar approach and lowered rates by 25bps yet again this week, taking the rate to 2.75%. This marks 225bps of cuts since June 2024, when rates peaked at 5%. The statement blamed US-Canada trade tensions as a potential drag on growth and a driver of inflation. As ING noted on Wednesday,

“The Bank continues to acknowledge “more than usual uncertainty” due to trade tariffs and has a sense that this uncertainty is “restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.” After all, 76% of Canadian exports go to the US, equivalent to 20% of Canadian GDP – so even a modest drop in exports could risk a recession.”

Cutting rates will help the economy but they are only now around neutral rates – if stimulus is required to avoid a recession they may have to go much lower and this prospect should keep the Canadian Dollar and euro suppressed and the US dollar bid. So far, there are no signs of inflation making a comeback but both the BoC and ECB will have a challenging year trying to balance out growth and inflation with a messy trade war constantly evolving in the background.

Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate Technicals: Short-Term

According to FX strategists at Scotiabank, the short-term outlook remains neutral.

“EURUSD continues to consolidate. Spot losses are extending for a second day and testing support in the upper 1.08s but the broader, technical undertone remains constructive and dips to the low/mid 1.08 area should remain supported. Key short-term support is 1.0805. Resistance is 1.0950 and 1.10.”

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